Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7181 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 2:50 pm

Cpv17 warm up to the end of January , first week of february is at least starting to look a little more interesting, ensembles are trying to pull back the ridge over alaska, though with more of a stronger se ridge in play as well , its definitely showing in the operational runs, I think winter isnt done just yet, could have a big battle zone over the middle of the country in february
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7182 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 3:05 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 warm up to the end of January , first week of february is at least starting to look a little more interesting, ensembles are trying to pull back the ridge over alaska, though with more of a stronger se ridge in play as well , its definitely showing in the operational runs, I think winter isnt done just yet, could have a big battle zone over the middle of the country in february


Interesting, I just saw that Euro run. Wonder of it has any support on the other models and what the MJO will be like during that period. I’m always trying to look ahead for the next interesting event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7183 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 3:58 pm

Active southern jet provides opportunities to cash in on some more rain across SC TX points east starting this weekend extending into next week perhaps.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7184 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:15 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Active southern jet provides opportunities to cash in on some more rain across SC TX points east starting this weekend extending into next week perhaps.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/qpf_anom_5day/1737547200/1738432800-R8tznn2872c.png


That looks beautiful! Bring it on considering much of south central Texas has severe to extreme drought conditions.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7185 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:24 pm

Yall can have all the rain, i personally would love a few weeks of dry weather, dont need another drop of rain here, hope to see that green on the ensemble shift further west over time
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7186 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:35 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Yall can have all the rain, i personally would love a few weeks of dry weather, dont need another drop of rain here, hope to see that green on the ensemble shift further west over time


Don’t need the rain at my house either, but as long as I don’t have a lake around my house then I’ll never turn down rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7187 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 4:37 pm

Cpv17 yeah i wouldnt mind more rain if it wasnt for the fact that our lawn and backyard is all muddy and slushy from the melted snow, its icky lol, need a good week of dry weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7188 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 22, 2025 5:43 pm

It was a winter storm for the ages across the Gulf Coast from TX to Virginia, and looking at the models from the 96 hour out most did very well with dynamics and P types. No question this has been a upside down Winter. Alaska basically snow starved (by January standards) and the GC wrapped in a fluffy white embrace.

As I made the comment 2 weeks ago when we had our first snow that our cold may last till Mid February, and we are starting to see the models pick up on that. Our winter isn't over, and I've seen a few Valentine's Snows before.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7189 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 5:44 pm

Strong upper level low on the 18z GFS At day 9, widespread rains over central and se texas followed by a mixed back of precip on the backside of the low up near college station and east texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7190 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:03 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:It was a winter storm for the ages across the Gulf Coast from TX to Virginia, and looking at the models from the 96 hour out most did very well with dynamics and P types. No question this has been a upside down Winter. Alaska basically snow starved (by January standards) and the GC wrapped in a fluffy white embrace.

As I made the comment 2 weeks ago when we had our first snow that our cold may last till Mid February, and we are starting to see the models pick up on that. Our winter isn't over, and I've seen a few Valentine's Snows before.


I hope you’re right.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7191 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:09 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Strong upper level low on the 18z GFS At day 9, widespread rains over central and se texas followed by a mixed back of precip on the backside of the low up near college station and east texas


I just looked at the 12z Euro 500mb forecast. Yeah, that’s a massive ridge over Alaska. Wasn’t expecting the EPO to do that. Hopefully it pans out. It’ll be 90°F here again before we know it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7192 Postby WinterMax » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:11 pm

We had between 8 and 10 inches in Ville Platte La. I enjoyed it but I was not to happy to wake up to 6 degrees this morning in south central Louisiana. At my age my excitement dwindles faster. My electricity went out for an hour in the middle of almost blizzard conditions, I began to be concerned.

It all worked out the electricity came back on an hour later, they are pretty good down here about rushing out to repair outages. In a rural area like this it was a blessing.

I never thought Harp would get more snow than me, yet here we are, lol.

Happy for all of you that cashed in, but like everything else, it fades away.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7193 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:16 pm

Cpv17 yup we know it wont be long before the big summer suck sets in, EPS has the EPO going negative again after the first of february, WPO is still negative as well, think winter still has some cards left in the deck for texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7194 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:22 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 yup we know it wont be long before the big summer suck sets in, EPS has the EPO going negative again after the first of february, WPO is still negative as well, think winter still has some cards left in the deck for texas


One thing that looks concerning on the ensembles is the SE ridge looks to be extended into Texas during that timeframe. Yeah, let’s hope not.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7195 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:23 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 yup we know it wont be long before the big summer suck sets in, EPS has the EPO going negative again after the first of february, WPO is still negative as well, think winter still has some cards left in the deck for texas


Really need to see that AO cooperate though (neutral or preferably negative) or I think the bulk of the cold will stay bottled up further north for the most part even if we see a return of the negative EPO signal into the first part of February as the 12z Euro OP/ensemble suggest.

SE ridge will resist as well and so while there may be some signals for cold down the road (Euro), I think we need more to come together than just the EPO alone to feel more confident about cold making a return further south as opposed to keeping most of the action across the Midwest.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7196 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:31 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 yup we know it wont be long before the big summer suck sets in, EPS has the EPO going negative again after the first of february, WPO is still negative as well, think winter still has some cards left in the deck for texas


Really need to see that AO cooperate though (neutral or preferably negative) or I think the bulk of the cold will stay bottled up further north for the most part even if we see a return of the negative EPO signal into the first part of February as the 12z Euro OP/ensemble suggest.

SE ridge will resist as well and so while there may be some signals for cold down the road (Euro), I think we need more to come together than just the EPO alone to feel more confident about cold making a return further south as opposed to keeping most of the action across the Midwest.


That’s a good point about the AO.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7197 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:32 pm

txtwister78 EPS also has the WPO going negative, that would probably help us even with resistance from the SE ridge, AO is positive but not crazy positive, just wanna see that get to at least neutral territory
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7198 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Jan 22, 2025 10:03 pm

Just a regular day and downtown New Orleans

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DFHVgzAO ... Y5ag%3D%3D

Fitting I would post and find this seeing what my name is on here
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7199 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 22, 2025 10:09 pm

This has been a persistently -EPO winter making it very easy to get cold down into TX. That alone can get us cold and add a SE ridge traps storms. If we can get an upper low at that time then we can cash in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7200 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 22, 2025 11:36 pm

Haven’t followed much in past week because i was out of town and knew i was out of the snow running plus i got a few inches last week to hold me over.

Gotta say i find myself truly happy for you gulf coasters. It was just last week one of you from Louisiana asked if hope was again fading and I remember thinking to myself these poor folks always get their hopes up and yet NOTHING ever happens.

Well it Happened, in mother load fashion! Congrats!!!
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