Florida Weather

[Abdullah]

SOUTH FLORIDA COLD SNAP OUTLOOK, MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

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For reference:

Average winter day at Miami International Airport (2014–2024)

Daily Maximum: 79°F
Daily Minimum: 65°F

Average midwinter day is ~2°F below average winter day

Daily Maximum: 77°F
Daily Minimum: 63°F

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NWS Official Forecast as of 9 PM

53°F (10°F anomaly) - JAN 23, TONIGHT / THURSDAY MORNING LOW
67°F (10°F anomaly) - JAN 23, THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH
50°F (13°F anomaly) - JAN 24, FRIDAY MORNING LOW
62°F (15°F anomaly) - JAN 24, FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH
47°F (16°F anomaly) - JAN 25, SATURDAY MORNING LOW
69°F (8°F anomaly) - JAN 25, SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH

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NOAA National Blend of Models NBM 9 PM Run

JAN 23 THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH MEAN 68°F
10th percentile - 61°F
25th percentile - 64°F
50th percentile - 68°F
75th percentile - 72°F
90th percentile - 76°F

JAN 24 FRIDAY MORNING LOW MEAN 50°F
10th percentile - 46°F
25th percentile - 48°F
50th percentile - 50°F
75th percentile - 53°F
90th percentile - 55°F

JAN 24 FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH MEAN 60°F
10th percentile - 55°F
25th percentile - 58°F
50th percentile - 60°F
75th percentile - 63°F
90th percentile - 66°F

JAN 25 SATURDAY MORNING LOW MEAN 48°F
10th percentile - 42°F
25th percentile - 45°F
50th percentile - 47°F
75th percentile - 50°F
90th percentile - 54°F

JAN 25 SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH MEAN 70°F
10th percentile - 65°F
25th percentile - 69°F
50th percentile - 71°F
75th percentile - 73°F
90th percentile - 75°F

[NDG]

Saturday morning's lows will be the coldest so far this winter. for central FL and parts of SW FL. Here are the official forecasted lows, some like here in the Orlando area are below the MOS guidance, doubt we will get that low if winds stay up like forecasted.
It could had been worst had the Arctic shot earlier in the week would have had a push to come deep into the Peninsula. All time record lows in the single digits were recorded Wednesday morning in coastal south central Louisiana.

[Abdullah]

NWS Official Forecast as of 9 PM

53°F (10°F anomaly) - JAN 23, TONIGHT / THURSDAY MORNING LOW
67°F (10°F anomaly) - JAN 23, THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH

Now that we have our daily numbers, here they are:



The nightly minimum came in at 54°F at 4:35 AM, which is 1°F higher than expected.

Meanwhile, the daily maximum came in at 58°F at 11:25 AM, which is 9°F lower than expected!

This will go in the official recordbook as our first sub-60 degree day since December 2022! (the previous one a few days ago didn't count, as the NWS measures daily maximums from midnight to midnight).

[Abdullah]

Looking ahead, we are awaiting another chilly morning, a cold day thereafter, and then the cold night so far this winter!

Read about it in the forecast discussion:

By Friday, the aforementioned stationary boundary pushes further
into the Bahamas and SW Atlantic waters, allowing for a gradual
decrease in cloud cover across SoFlo. However, prevailing northerly
flow will keep ongoing cold air advection into the area, with
temperatures in a downward trend during the short term.

Ensemble guidance and local models remain in fair agreement
regarding the lowest temps expected Friday morning. Overnight lows
around 40 are possible for the Lake region, while the Atlantic metro
areas could drop into the mid-upper 40s. Afternoon highs could
remain well below seasonal normals, locked in the upper 50s to
around 60, especially where cloud cover lingers.

High pressure starts to build over the southeastern US and
Florida on Friday, ushering in a blast of cold air Friday night
into Saturday morning. In fact, temperatures overnight may be the
coolest associated with this cold weather event, with overnight
temperatures near drop into the mid 30s west of Lake Okeechobee
and the upper 40s near the Atlantic coast. Apparent temperatures
across the lake region and interior portions of Southwest Florida
could even briefly dip into the upper 20s in some locations,
potentially meeting Cold Weather Advisory criteria. We may need
to revisit that possibility in a later forecast package.

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As of right now, the overnight forecast low at KMIA is 49°F, but 50°F was reached around 11 PM.

If that number drops by 1°F, it will mark our second sub-50°F night this winter.

[Abdullah]

UPDATED SOUTH FLORIDA COLD SNAP OUTLOOK, MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CHANGES SINCE FORECAST MADE 24 HOURS AGO ARE IN RED

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For reference:

Average winter day at Miami International Airport (2014–2024)

Daily Maximum: 79°F
Daily Minimum: 65°F

Average midwinter day is ~2°F below average winter day

Daily Maximum: 77°F
Daily Minimum: 63°F

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NWS Official Forecast as of 12 AM

49°F (14°F anomaly) - JAN 24, FRIDAY MORNING LOW (forecast temperature drop of 1°F in the last 24 hours)
60°F (17°F anomaly) - JAN 24, FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH (forecast temperature drop of 2°F in the last 24 hours)
46°F (17°F anomaly) - JAN 25, SATURDAY MORNING LOW (forecast temperature drop by 1°F in the last 24 hours)
69°F (8°F anomaly) - JAN 25, SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH (forecast temperature stable in the last 24 hours)

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NOAA National Blend of Models NBM 9 PM Run

JAN 24 FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH MEAN 60°F (forecast temperature stable in the last 24 hours)
10th percentile - 54°F
25th percentile - 57°F
50th percentile - 60°F
75th percentile - 62°F
90th percentile - 64°F

JAN 25 SATURDAY MORNING LOW MEAN 47°F (forecast temperature drop by 1°F in the last 24 hours)
10th percentile - 44°F
25th percentile - 46°F
50th percentile - 47°F
75th percentile - 49°F
90th percentile - 51°F

JAN 25 SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH MEAN 70°F (forecast temperature stable in the last 24 hours)
10th percentile - 67°F
25th percentile - 69°F
50th percentile - 70°F
75th percentile - 71°F
90th percentile - 73°F

[Abdullah]

Current projected Friday morning lows (so in a few hours!) across South Florida:



Current projected Friday afternoon highs across South Florida:

[NDG]

Wow! South FL is finally going to get above 60F during the day today!
Here in Orlando we are finally getting out of the 40s for highs!
I am still saying this would had been much worst for central and southern FL had the deep trough that came down with the Arctic blast earlier in the week had not taken a positive tilt when it dug south leaving W & SW winds from H85 up to the upper levels, it didn't have that push for the core to come down.

[Abdullah]

NWS Official Forecast as of 12 AM

49°F (14°F anomaly) - JAN 24, FRIDAY MORNING LOW (forecast temperature drop of 1°F in the last 24 hours)

The nightly minimum came in at 48°F, which is 1°F lower than expected.

In fact, the Miami International Airport weather station has been reporting 48°F since 4 AM, and it still is as of 11 AM.



This breaks the previous record of 49°F on Thursday, January 9 and becomes the lowest temperature seen at Miami International Airport this winter.

[Abdullah]

The 10 AM projection for the daily maximum today stands:

60°F at Miami International Airport

[HurricaneBelle]

Yeah at noon today it was 48 at Tampa, making it 67 straight hours below 50 degrees before the mercury finally climbed to a torrid 53 at 1PM.

[NDG]

Crazy that Miami stayed at 48F through 11 AM!

[psyclone]

What a stretch this has been. Thankfully our dependable friend the southeast ridge is returning with above normal temps back on the 6-10, 8-14 day and Feb outlook. The pines, which have wisely delayed pollinating here, will be throwing yellow dust within a week to 10 days. I'm not excited about the pollen but since it's a package deal with warmth we'll take it. It's really incredible we avoided a significant freeze threat down the peninsula with this pattern. We're lucky as usual.

[Abdullah]

The 10 AM projection for the daily maximum today stands:

60°F at Miami International Airport

https://i.imgur.com/4B8gJkA.png

The daily maximum came in at 59°F, which is 1°F lower than expected.

Looking ahead, there have been no large shifts in the temperature forecast for tonight / tomorrow morning, as Miami International Airport looks to get to 47°F with a wind chill of 42°F.

[Abdullah]

Still lots of clouds where I live

Night could be a bust if they don't clear up soon

[Abdullah]

Apparently over the last hour, clouds have cleared up over Miami International Airport, way faster than expected.



Although where I live, if anything it looks like it covers more of the sky now!

Just shows how much cloud coverage can vary between locations.

[Abdullah]

The sky cleared up at my location around 11:30 PM

It's a starry night outside and the temperatures are now dropping, and I just measured 51°F here

[Abdullah]

Measured 45°F just after Sunrise in West Pembroke Pines.

The forecast was almost dead on

[Abdullah]

Now that the day is done, we can now evaluate what has been the coldest night in South Florida so far this winter (and it will probably remain that way). This morning also stands as the coldest South Florida has gotten since the cold snap of January 2023, where the thermometer dipped to 44°F at Miami International Airport.

Officially, the nighttime recorded low temperature occurred at 6:57 AM and was marked as 47°F.
This makes the forecast dead on. Once again a big congratulations to the NWS for getting this one right.



This annual low runs slightly above the typical low of the previous ten years before this: 45°F
While it's not an exceptionally rare mark to reach, it still is notable.

Coming up ahead, we return to temperatures slightly below climatological norms, but slightly trending upward. By the end of the week (and the end of January), these temperatures are likely to be above average. A welcome break from the cold.

[MetroMike]

It's so nice to see some hope for above normal temps looking likely.The past 2 months have been dreadful here compared to what was forecast by the CPC. Lets hope this verifies.

[Patrick99]

I hope you all enjoyed that little period of cool - I haven't seen days of those damp, cool conditions in SFL for some time. If night temps get into the 40s, 29 times out of 30, it's bone dry.

GFS has nothing but varying degrees of above normal temps for SFL through Feb 12. I'm gonna go ahead and call it, "winter" for SFL is now over.