2024 TCRs

[ljmac75]

That Beryl report was great, really hit all the main points. The Debby report is good, though perhaps a less interesting storm. Those sticknets really pulled through and got the data needed to up Beryl's landfall intensity. That's 10 reports down with plenty of interesting storms (and TS Sara) to go! I've decided I want them to up Helene's peak intensity to 125 kts, not for any valid scientific reasoning but so it'll be the exact same peak intensity as Hurricane Helene in 1988. If they downgrade it to 110 kts at landfall the HRD list of major hurricanes in the US will have Helene in 1958 right near Helene 2024, maybe even with the same pressure.

[Category5Kaiju]

Very curious to see how Milton’s data is interpreted. In the end, unless there’s very good evidence that suggests otherwise, I think Milton was one of those storms that recon nailed at the bullseye at peak intensity (meaning the 180/897 will remain the same).

[CrazyC83]

Very curious to see how Milton’s data is interpreted. In the end, unless there’s very good evidence that suggests otherwise, I think Milton was one of those storms that recon nailed at the bullseye at peak intensity (meaning the 180/897 will remain the same).

That is my thinking too (155 kt and 897 mb should hold up), and the peak intensity I think will be at a non-synoptic point I think (around 22Z or 2230Z October 7). At that moment, the VDM found a 4 nm circular eye, which is indicative of a storm peaking - it is unlikely it was stronger before the Recon pass (if it was concentric at that VDM, the assumption could be made). Next VDM (around 00Z October 8) found a pressure around 902 mb, weaker winds and a concentric eyewall, which would support a 150 kt intensity and a pressure of 902 mb at synoptic time.

At Florida landfall, I think it's a tossup between 95 kt or 100 kt for the intensity. I'm guessing they will assess it at a possibly generous 100 kt, although a case could be made for knocking it back to 95 kt (I don't think the operational 105 kt will hold). The pressure was likely around 957 mb at that point.

[CrazyC83]

That Beryl report was great, really hit all the main points. The Debby report is good, though perhaps a less interesting storm. Those sticknets really pulled through and got the data needed to up Beryl's landfall intensity. That's 10 reports down with plenty of interesting storms (and TS Sara) to go! I've decided I want them to up Helene's peak intensity to 125 kts, not for any valid scientific reasoning but so it'll be the exact same peak intensity as Hurricane Helene in 1988. If they downgrade it to 110 kts at landfall the HRD list of major hurricanes in the US will have Helene in 1958 right near Helene 2024, maybe even with the same pressure.

Helene 1958 peaked with an intensity of 130 kt, and a pressure of 930 mb. If it had made landfall, it would have basically been the Hugo of that generation.

[ljmac75]

That Beryl report was great, really hit all the main points. The Debby report is good, though perhaps a less interesting storm. Those sticknets really pulled through and got the data needed to up Beryl's landfall intensity. That's 10 reports down with plenty of interesting storms (and TS Sara) to go! I've decided I want them to up Helene's peak intensity to 125 kts, not for any valid scientific reasoning but so it'll be the exact same peak intensity as Hurricane Helene in 1988. If they downgrade it to 110 kts at landfall the HRD list of major hurricanes in the US will have Helene in 1958 right near Helene 2024, maybe even with the same pressure.

Helene 1958 peaked with an intensity of 130 kt, and a pressure of 930 mb. If it had made landfall, it would have basically been the Hugo of that generation.

Yes if it had made landfall we'd be discussing when the report would be coming out for Hurricane Haley or some other such H name. Any books written about hurricanes in the Carolinas would have to name a chapter on the 1950s "Hazel and Helene."

Also TCR for Kristy in the EPAC just dropped. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122024_Kristy.pdf

[Hurricane2022]

Also TCR for Kristy in the EPAC just dropped. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122024_Kristy.pdf

This TCR gives me a somewhat bad feeling about what the NHC will say about Kirk's peak intensity

[ncforecaster89]

[Xpost][/Xpost]

All things considered, Beryl's peak seems reasonable, given the uncertainty and the fact the SFMR was acting like garbage last year. Notice they dropped the Yucatan landfall from 95 to 80 kt (reasonable IMO given the dramatic pressure rise in the last few hours) and also the Texas landfall was increased from 70 to 80 kt (I was expecting at least 75 kt, but surprised they went a bit higher still). I'd have considered a lower pressure, around 976 mb, based on the readings just inland.

As far as Debby, I think the 70 kt landfall intensity is quite generous. The land data (both pressure and wind) weren't very impressive as there were very few readings in the 980s and no gusts (let alone sustained winds) of hurricane force on land. The pressure also likely rose in the last 3 hours or so, with Josh Morgerman's 982 mb reading a better landfall estimate. I'd have peaked it at 70 kt at 06Z, then lowered it to 65 kt at landfall (I'd have considered 60 kt except for the flight caveats), with those winds likely only on the immediate shoreline as shown by the aircraft.

I’m glad to see they rightfully increased the TX landfall MSW estimate to 80 kt for Beryl.

I agree with the 70 kt (although 65 kt was also reasonable) estimate for Debby. I measured a pressure of 981.6 mb 10 n mi inland at Tennille in the eye, after documenting the peak at Horseshoe Beach. Consequently, 980 mb was likely the best estimate for its lowest pressure at landfall.

[HurricaneRyan]

Why do I get this weird feeling that it will be awhile before the next report?

I believe it's down to Alberto, Ernesto, Francine, Helene, Kirk, Milton, Oscar, Rafael & Sara right? And no more EPAC systems?

[galaxy401]

John is the only EPAC report that is yet to be released.

BTW Debby got an update regarding the tornado data.

[CrazyC83]

The EPAC is now finished. John was just published, as was 11-E which is now an unnamed TS based on ASCAT data that was verified as accurate.

I'd argue for a somewhat higher intensity than 35 kt based on the ASCAT passes, pressure and structure (I would go with 45 kt).

[cycloneye]

Link to Johns report.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102024_John.pdf

[ljmac75]

Link to tropical storm formerly tropical depression 11-E: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112024_Unnamed.pdf

I think they lowered John's pressure to 956 mb. 2.5 billion in damage, same area that got hit by Otis in 2023.

[MarioProtVI]

The EPAC is now finished. John was just published, as was 11-E which is now an unnamed TS based on ASCAT data that was verified as accurate.

I'd argue for a somewhat higher intensity than 35 kt based on the ASCAT passes, pressure and structure (I would go with 45 kt).

So that means we got robbed of C5 Lane part 2, had NHC named 11E Kristy operationally.

[Ernestt]

Just read John’s report 55 in of rain, it was Harvey to Acapulco. The whole city is in 40 in + of rain as well (or 1 m basically)

[ljmac75]

Just read John’s report 55 in of rain, it was Harvey to Acapulco. The whole city is in 40 in + of rain as well (or 1 m basically)

They got smashed by a cat 5 hurricane and then got flooded out by another hurricane. That's atrocious luck. They've had a Harvey and an Andrew, what's next, a Dorian?

[galaxy401]

Sara is out.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL192024_Sara.pdf

[ljmac75]

Sara is out.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL192024_Sara.pdf

All the tropical storms are out of the way, that just leaves 7 hurricanes left to get reports for!

...and PTC 8.

[cycloneye]

Didn't know where to post this general 2024 NHC performance, so I thought it would be good to have it here.

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1894079012189667818

[Hurricanehink]

Didn't know where to post this general 2024 NHC performance, so I thought it would be good to have it here.

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1894079012189667818

Great writeup. Looks like 2023 had some bad track errors - any idea what storm(s) they were? Similarly, 2022 had some big intensity errors at 96 and 120 hours. But NHC was able to anticipate some of the rapid intensifications. The writeup specifically mentions pre-Helene's second advisory being the first time the NHC forecast a disturbance would become a major hurricane. Hopefully the NHC remains the beacon of competency for this season. They're worth every penny.

[Travorum]

Didn't know where to post this general 2024 NHC performance, so I thought it would be good to have it here.

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1894079012189667818

Great writeup. Looks like 2023 had some bad track errors - any idea what storm(s) they were? Similarly, 2022 had some big intensity errors at 96 and 120 hours. But NHC was able to anticipate some of the rapid intensifications. The writeup specifically mentions pre-Helene's second advisory being the first time the NHC forecast a disturbance would become a major hurricane. Hopefully the NHC remains the beacon of competency for this season. They're worth every penny.

IIRC the big contributors to track error in 2023 were Philippe (the storm, not the forecaster) and Rina, which was largely due to their binary interaction creating a lot of long-term uncertainty on track -- throughout its lifetime I think Philippe was forecast to recurve before 55W, then forecast to hit the Leeward Islands, then forecast to recurve before 60W, then ultimately hit the Leeward Islands. There might have been some other storms with above average error but those were the two I remember sticking out as egregious.