EUR: ÉOWYN - Storm

[kevin]

Considering the potential strength of Éowyn I thought a separate thread would be handy. And I'm personally also quite interested in the non-tropical European windstorms (let alone Mediterranean tropical cyclones) so I thought some more attention towards those storms on Storm2k couldn't hurt. I'll copy a few posts I made in other threads under this one.

[kevin]

[Original post date: Wed Jan 22, 2025 10:20 am]

A very powerful European windstorm (extratropical cyclone) will impact Ireland on Friday. Éowyn, as the storm is called, could become one of the strongest storms to impact Ireland since reliable records started. I know it's not a TC, but this felt extraordinary enough to mention here. This morning's Euro run shows gusts up to 231 kmh (145 mph, 125 kt) over water & nearing 200 km/h (125 mph, 100 kt) at the coast and sustained wind speeds along the coast of 150 km/h (95 mph, 80 kt). Central pressure of Éowyn will probably be ~945 mb during landfall. Some Euro members show wind gusts as high as 230 km/h (145 mph, 125 kt) over land. The wind gust record for Ireland is 200 km/h (125 mph, 100 kt) so there's a reasonable chance that record will be broken.

Wind gusts





Mean wind speed

[kevin]

[Original post date: Thu Jan 23, 2025 10:06 am]

Based on this news article it seems hurricane Hunters from NOAA will fly into Eowyn tomorrow.

https://www.live95fm.ie/news/live95-news/hurricane-hunters-fly-into-shannon-airport-to-track-storm-eowyn/#:~:text='Hurricane%20Hunters'%20fly%20into%20Shannon%20Airport%20to%20track%20Storm%20%C3%89owyn,-All%20Live95%20News&text=A%20group%20of%20very%20skilled,and%20strength%20of%20Storm%20%C3%89owyn.

Eowyn will track slightly further north than previously thought. Ireland will still get hit directly, but the core might stay (partially) offshore which could also result in a much stronger storm once it reached Scotland. Either way, current forecasts (00z) for the different models below. A multiplication factor of 1.11 to go from the 10-minute sustained wind at the coast forecasts shown in the models to the 1-minute sustained wind normally used in the US. For open water the multiplication factor is 1.05. Note that, depending on the model, we're talking about a system with cat 1 to high-end cat 2 sustained winds at the coast. Extreme gusts are relatively common with European windstorms, but such high sustained winds are rare and I fear they will do a lot of damage.

Euro = 940 mb, 227 km/h (141 mph, 123 kt) gusts over water, 213 km/h (132 mph, 115 kt) gusts over land, 185 km/h (115 mph, 100 kt) sustained winds over water, 172 km/h (107 mph, 93 kt) sustained winds over land
GFS = 939 mb, 183 km/h (114 mph, 99 kt) gusts over water, 173 km/h (108 mph, 93 kt) gusts over land, 167 km/h (104 mph, 90 kt) sustained winds over water, 144 km/h (89 mph, 78 kt) sustained winds over land
ICON = 945 mb, 216 km/h (134 mph, 117 kt) gusts over water, 180 km/h (112 mph, 97 kt) gusts over land, 165 km/h (103 mph, 89 kt) sustained winds over water, 133 km/h sustained winds (83 mph, 72 kt) over land

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's some latest runs including a local high res model. Going to cause us some nasty weather which often happens this time of year in the middle of our Atlantic storm season.

GFS 10m wind



UKV 10m Wind

[WaveBreaking]

Éowyn has a textbook baroclinic leaf structure and spans almost the entire North Atlantic. Pretty obvious why it’s going to be such a problem for the British Isles.




Intense jet stream powering this thing as well (purple is 137+kts). Up to 160kts in its core.

[cycloneye]

Thanks kevin for making this thread that will be important to see what will occur with Eowyn and it's effects. Thread has been moved to the forum of active storms that includes the meditterranean area that will be close to the track so for the members, here it is

[WaveBreaking]

968 mbar per OPC with a dry slot over the center on satellite. Models were hinting at a sting jet tomorrow, so that’ll be interesting to see.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1882485089604702625

[cycloneye]

Oh boy.

 https://x.com/CollinGrossWx/status/1882422624879517790

[cycloneye]

Very impressive view at satelite.

 https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1882495070659838442

[WaveBreaking]

Euro and GFS analysis are at 949 mbar with hurricane-force sustained winds in the south part of the occluded front. I think a sting jet could try to form in the red area.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/ForceThirteenEU/status/1882443539625480376

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/metoffice/status/1882526452567941433

[TexasBreeze]

It looks like the southern US snowstorm fed into this low pressure system. Far reaching!

[ChrisH-UK]

Currently the maximum wind recorded is 71 mph and max win gust is 106 mph. Source Netweather top 20 - https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/ ... op-20/maxw

Here's a 8h radar loop from Netweather.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MeteoAtlas/status/1882746965978685895

[WaveBreaking]

There’s tons of high-PV air (deep orange/red) in Éowyn’s center. Just shows how intense the trough powering it is.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/metoffice/status/1882843506659516825

[cycloneye]

I only say wow.

 https://x.com/JohnMoralesTV/status/1882921872284918150

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/metoffice/status/1883137932162175460