92S INVEST 250123 0000 19.1S 36.0E SHEM 15 0
SIO: ELVIS - Post-Tropical
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Disruptive Zone area 06 (92S)
DISRUPTED ZONE number 6
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 35 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.
Position on January 24 at 4 p.m. local time: 20.0 South / 38.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1735 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1060 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 26 km/h.
System Information:
- The CMRS-cyclone of La Réunion begins monitoring the Disturbed Zone number 06-20242025 in the south of the Mozambique Channel. Indeed, a low pressure circulation is beginning to organize, associated with storm activity mainly in its eastern periphery.
- Under mixed environmental conditions, this system has a chance to develop into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours while moving southward, at an uncertain distance from Europa Island and the Malagasy coast of Toliara province.
- In its eastern periphery, sustained thunderstorms are possible on the west coast of Madagascar this weekend and early next week.
- The forecast of the trajectory and intensity of the phenomenon nevertheless remains very uncertain as of Saturday and will need to be confirmed in the next bulletins.
- The current low intensity of the system does not justify regular monitoring for the moment: the next update of the forecast will take place on Saturday at the end of the morning.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 35 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.
Position on January 24 at 4 p.m. local time: 20.0 South / 38.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1735 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1060 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 26 km/h.
System Information:
- The CMRS-cyclone of La Réunion begins monitoring the Disturbed Zone number 06-20242025 in the south of the Mozambique Channel. Indeed, a low pressure circulation is beginning to organize, associated with storm activity mainly in its eastern periphery.
- Under mixed environmental conditions, this system has a chance to develop into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours while moving southward, at an uncertain distance from Europa Island and the Malagasy coast of Toliara province.
- In its eastern periphery, sustained thunderstorms are possible on the west coast of Madagascar this weekend and early next week.
- The forecast of the trajectory and intensity of the phenomenon nevertheless remains very uncertain as of Saturday and will need to be confirmed in the next bulletins.
- The current low intensity of the system does not justify regular monitoring for the moment: the next update of the forecast will take place on Saturday at the end of the morning.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 06 (92S)
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE number 6
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.
Position on January 25 at 4 p.m. local time: 20.1 South / 39.0 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1690 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1040 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 7 km/h.
System Information:
- The CMRS-cyclone continues to monitor Disturbed Zone number 06-20242025 in the south of the Mozambique Channel. The low pressure circulation has changed little, associated with thunderstorm activity mainly in its eastern periphery but also in its peripheral band to the north.
- Under mixed environmental conditions, this system has a chance to develop into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours while moving southward, at an uncertain distance from Europa Island and the Malagasy coast of Toliara province.
- In its eastern periphery, sustained thunderstorms continue to occur on the west coast of Madagascar this weekend and early next week.
- The forecast of the trajectory and intensity of the phenomenon nevertheless remains very uncertain and will need to be confirmed in future bulletins.
- sea conditions could become dangerous in the south of Madagascar on Wednesday and Thursday.
- The current low intensity of the system does not justify regular monitoring for the moment: the next update of the forecast will take place tomorrow morning.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.
Position on January 25 at 4 p.m. local time: 20.1 South / 39.0 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1690 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1040 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 7 km/h.
System Information:
- The CMRS-cyclone continues to monitor Disturbed Zone number 06-20242025 in the south of the Mozambique Channel. The low pressure circulation has changed little, associated with thunderstorm activity mainly in its eastern periphery but also in its peripheral band to the north.
- Under mixed environmental conditions, this system has a chance to develop into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours while moving southward, at an uncertain distance from Europa Island and the Malagasy coast of Toliara province.
- In its eastern periphery, sustained thunderstorms continue to occur on the west coast of Madagascar this weekend and early next week.
- The forecast of the trajectory and intensity of the phenomenon nevertheless remains very uncertain and will need to be confirmed in future bulletins.
- sea conditions could become dangerous in the south of Madagascar on Wednesday and Thursday.
- The current low intensity of the system does not justify regular monitoring for the moment: the next update of the forecast will take place tomorrow morning.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 06 (92S)
Last bulletin for this area.
DISRUPTED ZONE number 6
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.
Position on January 26 at 10 a.m. local time: 21.4 South / 40.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1525 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1070 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System Information:
- The Disturbed Zone 06-20242025 is struggling to organize itself in the south of the Mozambique Channel. The low pressure circulation remains very elongated with several possible centers. The estimated center has been located in the eastern part of the circulation. The storm activity is mainly located in the eastern semicircle of the circulation close to the Malagasy coast.
- Under mixed environmental conditions but with poorly defined low-level circulation, this system has low potential for intensification and is expected to die over the south of the channel within 3 days.
- In its eastern periphery, sustained stormy rains continue to occur on the west coast of Madagascar this Sunday and early next week.
- This bulletin defines the latest bulletin on this system, unless re-intensified.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.
Position on January 26 at 10 a.m. local time: 21.4 South / 40.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1525 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1070 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System Information:
- The Disturbed Zone 06-20242025 is struggling to organize itself in the south of the Mozambique Channel. The low pressure circulation remains very elongated with several possible centers. The estimated center has been located in the eastern part of the circulation. The storm activity is mainly located in the eastern semicircle of the circulation close to the Malagasy coast.
- Under mixed environmental conditions but with poorly defined low-level circulation, this system has low potential for intensification and is expected to die over the south of the channel within 3 days.
- In its eastern periphery, sustained stormy rains continue to occur on the west coast of Madagascar this Sunday and early next week.
- This bulletin defines the latest bulletin on this system, unless re-intensified.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 06 (92S)
DISRUPTED ZONE number 6
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.
Position on January 28 at 10 a.m. local time: 23.8 South / 41.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1420 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1270 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 9 km/h.
System Information:
- Disturbed Zone No. 06-20242025 is located nearly 150 km west of the coast of the province of Toliara (Madagascar).
- This system is expected to move southward while gradually strengthening to reach possible tropical storm status within the next 24 hours.
- There is currently a high level of uncertainty regarding the intensity and final trajectory of this system. However, the current forecast suggests a slow evolution towards the south-southeast before a sharp slowdown on Wednesday and Thursday. The system will resume its movement from late Thursday towards the south-east and finally evacuate from the channel from Friday.
- The monsoon flow feeding the tropical system continues to generate very heavy stormy rains in the province of Toliara (Madagascar) and locally causes torrential rains near Morombe. Heavy rains are very likely until Wednesday, in the province of Toliara.
- A dangerous sea state also remains possible off the coast of Inhambane province (Mozambique) between Tuesday and Wednesday.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.
Position on January 28 at 10 a.m. local time: 23.8 South / 41.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1420 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1270 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 9 km/h.
System Information:
- Disturbed Zone No. 06-20242025 is located nearly 150 km west of the coast of the province of Toliara (Madagascar).
- This system is expected to move southward while gradually strengthening to reach possible tropical storm status within the next 24 hours.
- There is currently a high level of uncertainty regarding the intensity and final trajectory of this system. However, the current forecast suggests a slow evolution towards the south-southeast before a sharp slowdown on Wednesday and Thursday. The system will resume its movement from late Thursday towards the south-east and finally evacuate from the channel from Friday.
- The monsoon flow feeding the tropical system continues to generate very heavy stormy rains in the province of Toliara (Madagascar) and locally causes torrential rains near Morombe. Heavy rains are very likely until Wednesday, in the province of Toliara.
- A dangerous sea state also remains possible off the coast of Inhambane province (Mozambique) between Tuesday and Wednesday.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 06
- Tropical depression No. 06-20242025 is located nearly 110 km southwest of the coast of Toliara province (Madagascar).
- The track and intensity forecast is subject to high uncertainty. However, this system is expected to slow down as it begins a loop, curving its trajectory westward and then northwestward over the next 24 hours, before then resuming its trajectory to the southeast, causing it to plunge toward southern latitudes in the second half of the week.
- This system is expected to gradually intensify overnight to reach the probable stage of a moderate tropical storm.
- The monsoon flow feeding the tropical depression continues to generate very heavy stormy rains in the province of Toliara (Madagascar) and locally causes torrential rains between Cap Sainte-Marie and Morombe. These heavy rains are very likely until Wednesday, in the province of Toliara.
- A dangerous sea state also remains possible off the coast of Inhambane province (Mozambique) until Wednesday morning and off the coast of Toliara province until Thursday evening.
- The track and intensity forecast is subject to high uncertainty. However, this system is expected to slow down as it begins a loop, curving its trajectory westward and then northwestward over the next 24 hours, before then resuming its trajectory to the southeast, causing it to plunge toward southern latitudes in the second half of the week.
- This system is expected to gradually intensify overnight to reach the probable stage of a moderate tropical storm.
- The monsoon flow feeding the tropical depression continues to generate very heavy stormy rains in the province of Toliara (Madagascar) and locally causes torrential rains between Cap Sainte-Marie and Morombe. These heavy rains are very likely until Wednesday, in the province of Toliara.
- A dangerous sea state also remains possible off the coast of Inhambane province (Mozambique) until Wednesday morning and off the coast of Toliara province until Thursday evening.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: ELVIS - Tropical Storm
Upgraded to TS Elvis but will not last long.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 6
(ELVIS)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 995 hPa.
Position on January 29 at 04:00 local time: 25.1 South / 42.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1345 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1380 km to sector: SOUTH
Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 7 km/h.
System Information:
- As expected, system #06-20242025 intensified slightly during the night. It was named ELVIS by the Madagascar Meteorological Service.
- The Tropical Storm is evolving a little less than 120 km from the southwest coast of the province of Toliara (Madagascar).
- ELVIS has slowed its course over the past few hours and has curved its path toward the southeast. Over the next 24 hours, the system will begin a loop, before then resuming a southeasterly trajectory, plunging it toward southern latitudes during the day on Thursday. On this path, ELVIS is expected to intensify slightly further.
- The monsoon flow feeding the tropical depression continues to generate very heavy stormy rains in the province of Toliara (Madagascar) and locally causes torrential rains between Cap Sainte-Marie and Morombe. These heavy rains are very likely until Wednesday, in the province of Toliara.
- A dangerous sea state also remains possible off the coast of Inhambane province (Mozambique) until Wednesday morning and off the coast of Toliara province until Thursday evening.
- Residents are encouraged to follow the forecast through their national weather service.
(ELVIS)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 995 hPa.
Position on January 29 at 04:00 local time: 25.1 South / 42.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1345 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1380 km to sector: SOUTH
Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 7 km/h.
System Information:
- As expected, system #06-20242025 intensified slightly during the night. It was named ELVIS by the Madagascar Meteorological Service.
- The Tropical Storm is evolving a little less than 120 km from the southwest coast of the province of Toliara (Madagascar).
- ELVIS has slowed its course over the past few hours and has curved its path toward the southeast. Over the next 24 hours, the system will begin a loop, before then resuming a southeasterly trajectory, plunging it toward southern latitudes during the day on Thursday. On this path, ELVIS is expected to intensify slightly further.
- The monsoon flow feeding the tropical depression continues to generate very heavy stormy rains in the province of Toliara (Madagascar) and locally causes torrential rains between Cap Sainte-Marie and Morombe. These heavy rains are very likely until Wednesday, in the province of Toliara.
- A dangerous sea state also remains possible off the coast of Inhambane province (Mozambique) until Wednesday morning and off the coast of Toliara province until Thursday evening.
- Residents are encouraged to follow the forecast through their national weather service.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: ELVIS - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 6
(ELVIS)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 995 hPa.
Position on January 29 at 10 a.m. local time: 25.1 South / 42.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1355 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1390 km to sector: SOUTH
Movement: SOUTH, at 7 km/h.
System Information:
- ELVIS after intensifying yesterday evening, weakened a little this morning. The moderate tropical storm is still evolving about a hundred km from the Malagasy coast and is evolving slowly.
- Over the next 24 hours, the system is expected to move slowly before accelerating from tomorrow towards the southeast, causing it to plunge towards southern latitudes. On this trajectory, ELVIS is expected to intensify slightly before losing its tropical characteristics.
- The monsoon flow feeding ELVIS continues to generate very heavy thunderstorms over the province of Toliara (Madagascar), particularly between Cap Sainte-Marie and Morombe. These heavy rains are expected to continue until tomorrow morning, over the province of Toliara.
- A dangerous sea state also remains possible off the coast of Inhambane province (Mozambique) until Wednesday morning and off the coast of Toliara province until Thursday evening.
- Residents are encouraged to follow the forecast through their national weather service.
(ELVIS)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 995 hPa.
Position on January 29 at 10 a.m. local time: 25.1 South / 42.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1355 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1390 km to sector: SOUTH
Movement: SOUTH, at 7 km/h.
System Information:
- ELVIS after intensifying yesterday evening, weakened a little this morning. The moderate tropical storm is still evolving about a hundred km from the Malagasy coast and is evolving slowly.
- Over the next 24 hours, the system is expected to move slowly before accelerating from tomorrow towards the southeast, causing it to plunge towards southern latitudes. On this trajectory, ELVIS is expected to intensify slightly before losing its tropical characteristics.
- The monsoon flow feeding ELVIS continues to generate very heavy thunderstorms over the province of Toliara (Madagascar), particularly between Cap Sainte-Marie and Morombe. These heavy rains are expected to continue until tomorrow morning, over the province of Toliara.
- A dangerous sea state also remains possible off the coast of Inhambane province (Mozambique) until Wednesday morning and off the coast of Toliara province until Thursday evening.
- Residents are encouraged to follow the forecast through their national weather service.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: ELVIS - Post-Tropical
Bye.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 6
(ELVIS)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 994 hPa.
Position on January 31 at 04:00 local time: 30.7 South / 47.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1315 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 2000 km to sector: SOUTH
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 28 km/h.
System Information:
- ELVIS has started to lose its tropical characteristics in recent hours as it accelerates towards the southeast. Over the next 24/36 hours, this trend is expected to continue as the system is expected to move rapidly away towards southern latitudes. The extratropical depression generated by the remnants of ELVIS is expected to circulate near Kerguelen on Sunday.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 6
(ELVIS)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 994 hPa.
Position on January 31 at 04:00 local time: 30.7 South / 47.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1315 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 2000 km to sector: SOUTH
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 28 km/h.
System Information:
- ELVIS has started to lose its tropical characteristics in recent hours as it accelerates towards the southeast. Over the next 24/36 hours, this trend is expected to continue as the system is expected to move rapidly away towards southern latitudes. The extratropical depression generated by the remnants of ELVIS is expected to circulate near Kerguelen on Sunday.
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AnnularCane
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Re: SIO: ELVIS - Post-Tropical
Elvis has left the building. 
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
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