2025 ENSO Updates

[Kingarabian]

Per JMAs calculations, the PDO has not been positive since 12/2019.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone have the stats about how the North Atlantic seasons were with La Niña modoki? Is too early to see how ENSO will be by the summer months, but if it remains as it is now, what effect will have and that is why I ask.

[Category5Kaiju]

Recent examples of La Nina Modoki years include 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2016, which were fairly active and impactful years (per wikipedia)

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has niño 3.4 warming up to -0.6C and that is up from the -0.7C of last week's update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Does anyone have the stats about how the North Atlantic seasons were with La Niña modoki? Is too early to see how ENSO will be by the summer months, but if it remains as it is now, what effect will have and that is why I ask.

https://i.imgur.com/TWZ4PVB.jpeg

I would say minimal impacts to the Atlantic hurricane season. Nino 1+2 would need to be historically high for ASO. I don't recall when that has ever happened in the past 20 years without an El Nino.
Don't have stats but a Nina Modoki in theory could promote some periods of sinking motion and increased shear over the Caribbean IF Nino 1+2 is well above normal.

[dexterlabio]

A La Niña modoki sounds like a less active season for both the Pacific AND the Atlantic. But if we're gonna have something like 2008 then the Atlantic is in for a ride.

[cycloneye]

The January update of the plume of ENSO models has "Cold Neutral" thru November.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1882598395895808479

[cycloneye]

The weekly update from CPC has Niño 3.4 going down to -0.9C and that is down from the -0.6C of last week's update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

I think we need a much stronger downwelling Kelvin wave for any shot at El Nino for 2025. That's not likely here as the seeds for such should've occurred during fall 2024. I think a return towards neutral is likely before slipping back into La Nina for peak hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

I think we need a much stronger downwelling Kelvin wave for any shot at El Nino for 2025. That's not likely here as the seeds for such should've occurred during fall 2024. I think a return towards neutral is likely before slipping back into La Nina for peak hurricane season.

You see it going back to La Niña for ASO?

[AnnularCane]

I think we need a much stronger downwelling Kelvin wave for any shot at El Nino for 2025. That's not likely here as the seeds for such should've occurred during fall 2024. I think a return towards neutral is likely before slipping back into La Nina for peak hurricane season.

I think I remember you mentioning a temporary warm pool that would eventually cool off again. Is that what is happening now?

[cycloneye]

Looks like La Niña does not want to fade fast.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1884398127660019928

[Kingarabian]

I think we need a much stronger downwelling Kelvin wave for any shot at El Nino for 2025. That's not likely here as the seeds for such should've occurred during fall 2024. I think a return towards neutral is likely before slipping back into La Nina for peak hurricane season.

I think I remember you mentioning a temporary warm pool that would eventually cool off again. Is that what is happening now?

Yes.
It'll fluctuate. Some months it could be warmer than this but nothing to really flip the Nino regions. It's very likely that we won't see a significant warm pool that forces El Nino. Without +ENSO, by the time July comes around, significant upwelling occurs due to strong trades.

[cycloneye]

The SOI has been dropping to negative for a few days in January but is again going up and is now in positive. This may mean La Niña, may be holding on steady and not going to Neutral at least thru March / April timeframe.



https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[cycloneye]

Umm, maybe 2010-2011 may be analogs to 2025? Time will tell.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1885378749182730488

[Kingarabian]

Per JMA, the PDO hasn't been positive since late 2019.

[cycloneye]

Per JMA, the PDO hasn't been positive since late 2019.

NOAA the same since december 2019.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 2/3/25 has niño 3.4 up to -0.8C and that is up slightly from last week's update that had it at -0.9C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a strong WWB in the western portion of the WPAC. This could reamplify the warm pool through March but won't do much to the Nino regions as there likely won't be a dateline WWB to reinforce.