SIO: TALIAH - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

90S INVEST 250131 0600 12.5S 120.0E SHEM 25 1003

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5S
120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
ELONGATED ROTATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG 10S TO 11S LATITUDE IS HELPING INVEST 90S GAIN
MORE MOMENTUM WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A 310124Z PARTIAL METOP-B
ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. APPROXIMATELY
100NM TO THE NORTH THERE IS A WIND FIELD OF STRONG 20-25 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 119.7E TO 14.4S 116.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 119.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.1S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) DIRECTLY
OVER THE CENTER. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW (20-25 KNOTS) IS
POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND HAS BEGAN TO
WRAP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

Organizing pretty fast.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:56 pm WST on Saturday 1 February 2025

A Tropical Low 14U was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 13.8S 119.2E, that is 560
km northwest of Broome and 730 km north of Port Hedland and slow moving.

Tropical low 14U is developing north of Western Australia and is a High chance
of reaching tropical cyclone intensity during Sunday. Over the next few days
the system is expected to move west southwest and remain well to the north of
the WA coast. It is likely to continue strengthening over the next few days,
and is forecast to reach Category 4 on Tuesday.

14U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/nSgpY7N.png

I think I've never seen such an agressive forecast from BOM

[cycloneye]

WOW, this will go RI fast and be cat 4 by tuesday.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Sunday 2 February 2025

A Tropical Low 14U was located at 2:00 am AWST near 14.1S 118.5E, that is 590
km northwest of Broome and 690 km north of Port Hedland and slow moving.

Tropical low 14U is developing north of Western Australia and is a High chance
of reaching tropical cyclone intensity later Sunday. Over the next few days the
system is expected to move west southwest and remain well to the north of the
WA coast. It is likely to continue strengthening over the next few days, and is
forecast to reach Category 4 on Tuesday.

14U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.

[WaveBreaking]

[WaveBreaking]

12z Euro goes absolutely ballistic with this storm

[cycloneye]

Cat 4 on tuesday.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:42 am WST on Sunday 2 February 2025

A Tropical Low 14U was located at 8:00 am AWST near 14.4S 117.7E, that is 630
km northwest of Broome and 660 km north of Port Hedland and moving west
southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 14U is north of the Pilbara and expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone later on Sunday. 14U will move west southwest and remain far
offshore of the WA coast. It will continue strengthening over the next few
days, and is forecast to reach Category 4 on Tuesday.

14U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.

[Hurricane2022]

JTWC is not being bullish now like BOM, they predict that 14U will peak at "only 75 kt

[cycloneye]

JTWC is not being bullish now like BOM, they predict that 14U will peak at "only 75 kt

They say medium confidence on this forecast.

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN A TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 163NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO
260NM BY TAU 120. NVGM IS THE NOTABLE LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM, THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

[Subtrop]

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:50 pm WST on Sunday 2 February 2025

Tropical Cyclone Taliah (Category 1) was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 14.5S
116.2E, that is 700 km north of Karratha and 860 km north northeast of Exmouth
and moving west at 21 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah has developed north of the Pilbara and is moving west
southwest. It will remain far offshore of the WA coast as it continues
strengthening over the next few days, and is forecast to reach Category 4 on
Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Sunday 02 February.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Is now cat 2.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:39 pm WST on Sunday 2 February 2025

Tropical Cyclone Taliah (Category 2) was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 14.3S
116.1E, that is 720 km north of Karratha and 870 km north northeast of Exmouth
and moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah has intensified to category 2 well north of the Pilbara
and is moving west-southwest. The system will remain far offshore from the
Western Australian coast while continuing to strengthen. Taliah is forecast to
reach Category 4 by Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 am AWST Monday 03 February.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane2022, JTWC now up to 100kt. Still below models. They say intensity is low confidence.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Taliah has struggled over the last few hours.

The system was located using microwave and enhanced infrared satellite imagery
with moderate confidence. Tropical Cyclone Taliah has paused in strengthening
over the last few hours, with a large convective band to the west likely
inhibiting development.

Dvorak analysis with a curved band of approximately 0.6 gives a DT of 3.0. MET
is 2.5 based on a D- 24-hour trend, with PAT of 3.0. FT/CI is 3.0/3.5 based on
DT/PAT. Objective intensity aids at 1800 UTC are ADT 53 kn, AiDT 41 kn, D-PRINT
50 kn, and SATCON 52 knots. Intensity is held at 50 knots. A SAR pass at 1040
UTC detected storm-force winds in the western and northern quadrants. The
system's structure was determined based on this SAR pass.

Taliah is steered to the west southwest by a strong ridge to the south. There
is strong consensus in the guidance of this movement continuing for at least
the next 5 days, with less across track spread than along track spread.

CIMMS shear indicates strong shear just north of the low level centre, and low
just south. Satellite imagery indicates some shear on the system. Upper
divergence is good near the centre. Forecast shear is forecast remain low over
the next few days. Good outflow channels are expected to the west and northwest
of the system too. SST are 30 degrees, gradually decreasing to 28 degrees west
of 105E. Taliah is forecast to strengthen, with a period of rapid
intensification likely, and reach Category 4 by Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0055 UTC 03/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 115.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 983 hPa
REMARKS:
The development of Tropical Cyclone Taliah stalled overnight but it is expected
to begin intensifying again through Monday.

The system was located using microwave and visible satellite imagery with
moderate confidence. Tropical Cyclone Taliah has paused in strengthening over
the last few hours, with a large convective band to the west likely inhibiting
development. Deep convection has begun forming near the centre again and the
curved banding is showing some recent signs of improvement.

Dvorak analysis with a curved band of approximately 0.4 gives a DT of 2.5. MET
is 3.0 based on a D- 24-hour trend, with PAT of 3.0. FT/CI is 3.0/3.0 based on
PAT. Objective intensity aids at 0000 UTC are ADT 47 kn, AiDT 43 kn, D-PRINT 57
kn, and SATCON 48 knots (all 1-minute). Intensity is held at 50 knots.

Taliah is steered to the west southwest by a strong ridge to the south. There
is strong consensus in the guidance of this movement continuing for at least
the next 5 days, with less across track spread than along track spread. Taliah
is expected to track generally westwards and leave the Australian region during
Saturday.

CIMMS shear analysis indicated about 10-15 knots of shear over Tahliah. The
imagery does not give the appearance of being shear affected. Upper divergence
is good near the centre. Shear is forecast to remain low over the next few
days. Good outflow channels are expected to the west and northwest of the
system. SST are 30 degrees, gradually decreasing to 28 degrees west of 105E.
Taliah is forecast to strengthen reaching a peak intensity of about 100-110
knots by Wednesday and then gradually weaken as it travels west over slightly
cooler SSTs.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Taliah is showing signs of development on recent satellite
imagery.
The system was located using visible satellite imagery, a microwave pass and a
morning ASCAT pass with moderate confidence. Tropical Cyclone Taliah has shown
some increased curved banding close to the centre location and it is possible
that it will begin to intensify again.

Dvorak analysis with a curved band of approximately 0.6 to 0.7 gives a DT of
3.0. MET is 3.0 based on a W- 24-hour trend, with PAT of 3.0. FT/CI is 3.0/3.0
based on DT. Objective intensity aids are ADT 41 kn, AiDT 41 kn, D-PRINT 38 kn,
no recent SATCON (all 1-minute). Intensity is set at 55 knots based on the
morning ASCAT pass and improved curved banding.

Taliah is steered to the west southwest by a strong ridge to the south. There
is strong consensus in the guidance of this movement continuing for at least
the next 5 days, with less across track spread than along track spread. Taliah
is expected to track generally westwards and leave the Australian region during
Saturday.

CIMMS shear analysis indicated about 10-15 knots of shear over Tahliah.
However, the most recent imagery may be showing signs of a sharper edge on the
eastern boundary of the convection, indicating some shear is affecting the
system. Upper divergence is good near the centre. Shear is forecast to remain
low over the next few days. Good outflow channels are expected to the west and
northwest of the system. SST are 30 degrees, gradually decreasing to 28 degrees
west of 105E. Taliah is forecast to strengthen reaching a peak intensity of
about 100-110 knots by Wednesday and then gradually weaken as it travels west
over slightly cooler SSTs.