Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Quixotic]

March isn’t a death knell. 2015, 2014, 2010, 2003, 2002. Probably missing something. 1987 had thunder snow and accumulating snows despite temps in the mid 30s. 2015 was the best, IMO. 2003 had the ridiculous area wide 3-5” of sleet.

March 2015 was the best winter storm I've been in. Started a little fzr, then 1-2 inches sleet, the 8-10 inches snow.

Best snow since 2010. Might throw 2011 in there. We had 8” March 20th 2010. Mostly Denton and Collin counties. Was supposed to be flurries. I have pictures of 2015 and it looks like 7-8” of powder.

[Ntxw]

March isn’t a death knell. 2015, 2014, 2010, 2003, 2002. Probably missing something. 1987 had thunder snow and accumulating snows despite temps in the mid 30s. 2015 was the best, IMO. 2003 had the ridiculous area wide 3-5” of sleet.

March 2015 was the best winter storm I've been in. Started a little fzr, then 1-2 inches sleet, the 8-10 inches snow.

Best snow since 2010. Might throw 2011 in there. We had 8” March 20th 2010. Mostly Denton and Collin counties. Was supposed to be flurries. I have pictures of 2015 and it looks like 7-8” of powder.

March 2015 was an easy event. Knew it would be snow, it snowed overnight, was fairly uniform across NTX (outside the southern zones), stress-free and was gone the day after.



It was the 2nd measurable all snow, and 4th wintry precip event in the span of 2 weeks from late Feb to early March

[Brent]

March 2015 was the best winter storm I've been in. Started a little fzr, then 1-2 inches sleet, the 8-10 inches snow.

Best snow since 2010. Might throw 2011 in there. We had 8” March 20th 2010. Mostly Denton and Collin counties. Was supposed to be flurries. I have pictures of 2015 and it looks like 7-8” of powder.

March 2015 was an easy event. Knew it would be snow, it snowed overnight, was fairly uniform across NTX (outside the southern zones), stress-free and was gone the day after.

https://i.imgur.com/drEwIlu.png

It was the 2nd measurable all snow, and 4th wintry precip event in the span of 2 weeks from late Feb to early March

Yeah that was my first winter in DFW and really raised my expectations about winters there

Didn't do as well as that again til 20/21 when I already decided I was moving up here

In other news where does Google get its forecast? Because the warmest temperature it has is 61 degrees I've seen people talking about 80 degrees

[Stratton23]

All teleconnections go negative on the ensembles, and they stay negative through an extended period

[Tammie]

BAM Weather says all ensembles agree to mid-late month polar vortex split…
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188567837 ... J0be-HnN-w

[Sambucol2024]

BAM Weather says all ensembles agree to mid-late month polar vortex split…
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188567837 ... J0be-HnN-w

What does that mean for Texas?

[wxman22]

Keep in mind it's far out, but its been a while (relatively speaking) since I've seen the EURO show a winterstorm setup around here. The GFS has been showing it also FWIW.

[Brent]

BAM Weather says all ensembles agree to mid-late month polar vortex split…
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188567837 ... J0be-HnN-w

What does that mean for Texas?

Probably at least be another cold snap... Whether there's an actual storm or something really noteworthy remains to be seen

EPS still favoring around February 11th here. It's too far out still

[Tammie]

Bastardi is in on return of winter… take it with a grain of salt. I’m just happy something is showing more cold for Texas.
https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/188 ... J0be-HnN-w

[Ntxw]

Best snow since 2010. Might throw 2011 in there. We had 8” March 20th 2010. Mostly Denton and Collin counties. Was supposed to be flurries. I have pictures of 2015 and it looks like 7-8” of powder.

March 2015 was an easy event. Knew it would be snow, it snowed overnight, was fairly uniform across NTX (outside the southern zones), stress-free and was gone the day after.

https://i.imgur.com/drEwIlu.png

It was the 2nd measurable all snow, and 4th wintry precip event in the span of 2 weeks from late Feb to early March

Yeah that was my first winter in DFW and really raised my expectations about winters there

Didn't do as well as that again til 20/21 when I already decided I was moving up here

In other news where does Google get its forecast? Because the warmest temperature it has is 61 degrees I've seen people talking about 80 degrees

GFS. It's been gradually showing earlier frontal passage and you stay on the colder side of the delineation between cold north and warm south. ICON kind of shifting towards it too. I noted in earlier post Oklahoma had risks as the in-between boundary.

[Brent]

We have been -15 and we've been 90 this month before

Don't be surprised if we see some wild swings with this pattern

[gpsnowman]

We have been -15 and we've been 90 this month before

Don't be surprised if we see some wild swings with this pattern

Feb 1996 DFW had an 8 degree morning early in the month and then a 96 degree day later in the month. Talk about moody.

[Sambucol2024]

BAM Weather says all ensembles agree to mid-late month polar vortex split…
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188567837 ... J0be-HnN-w

What does that mean for Texas?

Probably at least be another cold snap... Whether there's an actual storm or something really noteworthy remains to be seen

EPS still favoring around February 11th here. It's too far out still

The entire state?

[CaptinCrunch]

[wxman22]

There's a big difference in the temps up here after Tuesdays front. The NAM shows what the EURO AI has been showing and doesn't have the front stall up here and moves the front further south. Look at the temp difference between the NAM and GFS for the same timeframe ( the NAM has us at 48F while the GFS has us at 75F). There's big bust potential in either direction next week with temps where the battlezone sets up, which is not uncommon with shallow air masses like this one.

[Stratton23]

12z CMC is about to burst the dam, thats a lot of cold moving into the central and western US

[Harp.1]

12z CMC is about to burst the dam, thats a lot of cold moving into the central and western US

GFS says nahh…

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 lol if you get that much cold air into the US like what the CMC has, its not going to get hung up, that comes all the way down into mexico like a battle ram , the GFS also did pretty bad with our january event so i dont trust it , models will always try to hold up arctic air when a se ridge is around, and most of the time the dam bursts

[Ntxw]

Harp.1 lol if you get that much cold air into the US like what the CMC has, its not going to get hung up, that comes all the way down into mexico like a battle ram , the GFS also did pretty bad with our january event so i dont trust it , models will always try to hold up arctic air when a se ridge is around, and most of the time the dam bursts

IF the crazy EPO blocking in Alaska/W-Can is true, I wouldn't worry about the cold staying locked up. Especially getting closer to mid-Feb, the AO improvements will help too. We'll have to see if the Pacific blocking can lock in.

[Cpv17]

12z CMC is about to burst the dam, thats a lot of cold moving into the central and western US

GFS says nahh…

The GFS has been struggling to see cold this winter, just FYI.