SIO: VINCE - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

99S INVEST 250130 1800 14.6S 106.4E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 106.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 538 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH DEEP
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE 10S LATITUDE ARE HELPING 99S GAIN MORE MOMENTUM IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A 310124Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS
REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SEMICIRCLE APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH
AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND
TAKE A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 104.3E TO 16.5S 97.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 103.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 104.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 103.9E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICT A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

Is organizing but not as fast as 90S. Looks like a very active next few days in this basin.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal five south (15.5S)
longitude one hundred and two decimal four east (102.4E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa
The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours, however gales are expected in the southwest quadrant from 0000 UTC 2
February.

[cycloneye]

JTWC has begun warnings.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 101.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 328 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED WESTWARD, PARTIALLY
EXPOSING A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED
LLC AND LINED UP WITH A BULLSEYE FEATURE IN THE 011433Z ASCAT PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS, HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES, IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WIDE PATCH OF
35-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SE-SW QUADRANTS IN THE ASCAT PASS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:40 am WST on Sunday 2 February 2025

A tropical Low, 15U, was located at 8:00 am AWST near 15.5S 100.4E, that is 535
km southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 800 km southwest of Christmas
Island and moving west at 19 kilometres per hour.
No direct impacts are expected at either Christmas Island or the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands.

Tropical Low 15U is located southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is
moving towards the west. It is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone very
early on Monday, well to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. During
Tuesday it is likely to move further west southwest, beyond the Australian Area
of Responsibility.

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Sunday 2 February 2025

A tropical Low, 15U, was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 15.5S 99.2E, that is 450
km southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 900 km southwest of Christmas
Island and moving west at 19 kilometres per hour.
No direct impacts are expected at either Christmas Island or the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands.

Tropical Low 15U is located southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is
moving towards the west. It is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone very
early on Monday, well to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. During
Tuesday it is likely to move further west southwest, and in the evening beyond
the Australian Area of Responsibility.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:40 pm WST on Sunday 2 February 2025

A tropical Low, 15U, was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 15.5S 98.0E, that is 390
km south southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 1010 km southwest of
Christmas Island and moving west at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 15U is located south southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and
is moving towards the west. It is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone
early on Monday, well to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. During
Tuesday it is likely to move further west southwest, and in the evening beyond
the Australian Area of Responsibility.

No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:42 am WST on Monday 3 February 2025

A tropical Low, 15U, was located at 2:00 am AWST near 15.6S 97.3E, that is 385
km south of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 1080 km west southwest of Christmas
Island and moving west at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 15U is located south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is moving
towards the west. It is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone this
morning. During Tuesday it is likely to move further west southwest to be
beyond the Australian Area of Responsibility Tuesday evening.

No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

[cycloneye]

Hello Vince.

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Vince has been named based on subjective Dvorak analysis and
objective intensity estimates.

The satellite signature has improved considerably during the past 6 hours,
developing a classic curved band pattern and suggesting the negative influence
of easterly shear on development of the system is decreasing.

Centre position is based on enhanced infrared (EIR) satellite imagery and
recent movement. Dvorak analysis yields a curved band averaging 0.75 wrap over
the past three hours. DT is 3.0. MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour D trend, with no
PAT adjustment. FT = CI = 3.0. Intensity remains at 40kn based on SATCON, but
gales are now estimated in all quadrants. Objective aids at 2340 UTC are ADT 49
kn, AiDT 36 kn, DPRINT 56 kn, SATCON 43 kts (all 1 min mean).

CIMSS analysis suggests similar deep layer shear values over the system (15-20
kn), however the shear gradient on the northern side of the system has loosened
somewhat. The upper AMVs continue to depict E/NE flow over the top of the
system, with a poleward outflow channel ahead of the upper trough to the SW.
This environment is expected to remain broadly similar over the next 2-3 days
as the upper trough relaxes ahead of the system. Some drier air may wrap around
the northern periphery of the system in the medium term, but is not expected to
be significant enough to be a weakening influence. Further development is
therefore forecast at roughly the standard rate, which would see Vince reach
category 3 on Wednesday.

There is very good model consensus in the forecast track in the medium term,
with a robust steering pattern north of a mid-level anticyclone in place until
mid-week. Vince will continue to track to the west southwest and likely move
outside the Australian region on Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Vince has been upgraded to category 2 based on subjective
Dvorak analysis and objective intensity estimates.

The satellite signature continues to improve and now exhibits a well-defined
CDO with attached banding feature. Centre position is based on visible
satellite imagery. Dvorak analysis: a curved band pattern averaging 0.8-0.9
wrap over the past three hours yields DT 3.5. Vis CDO pattern with a 75 nmi
diameter CDO gives CF 3.0, plus 0.5 for a banding feature also yields DT 3.5.
MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour D trend, PAT adjusted upwards to 3.5. FT = CI =
3.5. Intensity set at 50 knots, paying some objective estimates, but there is
now a fair spread. Objective aids at 0530 UTC are ADT 55 kn, AiDT 43 kn, DPRINT
59 kn, SATCON 77 kn (all 1 min mean).

CIMSS analysis suggests deep layer shear values over the system remain at 15-20
kn east-northeasterly. The upper AMVs continue to depict NE flow over the top
of the system, with a poleward outflow channel ahead of the upper trough to the
SW. This environment is expected to remain broadly similar over the next 2-3
days as the upper trough relaxes ahead of the system. Some drier air may wrap
around the northern periphery of the system in the medium term, but is not
expected to be significant enough to be a weakening influence. Further
development is therefore forecast at slightly below the standard rate, which
would see Vince reach category 3 on Wednesday.

There is very good model consensus in the forecast track in the medium term,
with a robust steering pattern north of a mid-level anticyclone in place until
mid-week. Vince will continue to track to the west southwest and likely move
outside the Australian region on Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

ROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1317 UTC 03/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.9S
Longitude: 93.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (251 deg)
Speed of Movement: 12 knots (23 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 03/1800: 17.2S 92.5E: 040 (080): 055 (100): 985
+12: 04/0000: 17.5S 91.3E: 050 (095): 060 (110): 982
+18: 04/0600: 17.9S 90.2E: 060 (110): 060 (110): 981
+24: 04/1200: 18.2S 89.1E: 065 (120): 060 (110): 979
+36: 05/0000: 18.7S 86.6E: 075 (135): 065 (120): 975
+48: 05/1200: 19.2S 84.4E: 085 (160): 065 (120): 974
+60: 06/0000: : : :
+72: 06/1200: : : :
+96: 07/1200: : : :
+120: 08/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Vince remains at category 2 based on subjective Dvorak
analysis and objective intensity estimates.

Centre position based on IR cloud features extrapolated forward from earlier
visible imagery. As a result there was increased uncertainty. Dvorak analysis:
a curved band pattern averaging 0.8-0.9 wrap over the past three hours yields
DT 3.5. Application of an embedded centre pattern and a shear pattern also
yields DT 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, no adjustment for PAT. FT
= CI = 3.5. Intensity set at 50 knots.Objective aids at 1200 UTC were generally
consistent with this intensity: ADT 55 kn, AiDT 45 kn, DPRINT 60 kn, SATCON 50
kn (all 1 min mean).

CIMSS analysis suggests deep layer shear values over the system remain at 15-20
kn easterly. The upper AMVs continue to depict NE flow over the top of the
system, with a poleward outflow channel ahead of the upper trough to the SW.
This environment is expected to remain broadly similar over the next 2-3 days
as the upper trough relaxes ahead of the system. Some drier air may wrap around
the northern periphery of the system in the medium term, but is not expected to
be significant enough to be a weakening influence. Further development is
therefore forecast at slightly below the standard rate, which would see Vince
reach category 3 on Wednesday.

There is very good model consensus in the forecast track in the medium term,
with a robust steering pattern north of a mid-level anticyclone in place until
mid-week. Vince will continue to track to the west southwest and will move out
of the Australian region on Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

Vince looks better now with an aparent eye popping.

[cycloneye]

Up to 75kt.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1905 UTC 03/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 92.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (259 deg)
Speed of Movement: 14 knots (25 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Central Pressure: 971 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 180 nm (335 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm (295 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm (465 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 04/0000: 17.4S 91.0E: 030 (060): 080 (150): 965
+12: 04/0600: 17.8S 89.9E: 040 (075): 085 (155): 961
+18: 04/1200: 18.1S 88.8E: 050 (090): 085 (155): 957
+24: 04/1800: 18.4S 87.5E: 055 (100): 085 (155): 958
+36: 05/0600: 18.9S 85.1E: 065 (120): 085 (155): 958
+48: 05/1800: : : :
+60: 06/0600: : : :
+72: 06/1800: : : :
+96: 07/1800: : : :
+120: 08/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Vince has developed rapidly in the past 6-12 hours.

Centre position based on eye feature in IR imagery and consistent with a SAR
pass at 1224 UTC. Dvorak analysis: DT has increased to 4.5 (averaged over the
past 3 hours) based on an eye pattern. MET is 4.0 based on a 24 hour D+ trend,
with PAT adjusted to 4.5. FT = CI = 4.5. A review of the 12Z analysis yielded
an FT of 4.0, so constraints have not been broken. Intensity set at 75 knots.
Objective aids at 1800 UTC: ADT 49 kn, AiDT 55 kn (noting that an eye pattern
had not been applied), DPRINT 85 kn, SATCON 85 kn (all 1 min mean). A SAR pass
at 1224 UTC indicated a max wind of 81 knots. The SAR pass was also used to
determine structure.

CIMSS analysis suggests deep layer shear values over the system remain at 15-20
kn easterly, although with a decreasing tendency. The system may not be
experiencing much effects from this shear given the current motion is west
southwest at 14 knots. A poleward outflow channel ahead of the upper trough to
the SW coupled with strong upper divergence is responsible for the recent
intensification. Although the environment is expected to remain broadly similar
over the next 2-3 days, upper support may not remain as strong. Some drier air
may wrap around the northern periphery of the system in the medium term, but is
not expected to be significant enough to be a weakening influence. Further
development is forecast, although at a slower rate.

There is very good model consensus in the forecast track, with a robust
steering pattern north of a mid-level anticyclone in place until mid-week.
Vince will continue to track to the west southwest and will move out of the
Australian region by later today (Tuesday).

[cycloneye]

Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0102 UTC 04/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 91.0E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (255 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (25 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm (295 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm (295 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 04/0600: 17.7S 89.8E: 025 (050): 075 (140): 970
+12: 04/1200: 18.2S 88.7E: 035 (070): 080 (150): 967
+18: 04/1800: 18.4S 87.5E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 966
+24: 05/0000: 18.8S 86.3E: 050 (095): 080 (150): 962
+36: 05/1200: 19.2S 84.2E: 060 (110): 080 (150): 962
+48: 06/0000: : : :
+60: 06/1200: : : :
+72: 07/0000: : : :
+96: 08/0000: : : :
+120: 09/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
The strength of convection in the eyewall of Severe Tropical Cyclone Vince
continues to fluctuate as Vince maintains Category 3 intensity.

Centre position based on eye feature in IR imagery and consistent with a GPM
microwave pass at 2003 UTC. Dvorak analysis: 3-hour average DT 4.5 based on an
eye pattern with MG surrounding DG eye, fluctuating between 4.0 and 5.0. MET is
3.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend, with PAT adjusted to 4.0. FT = 4.5 based on
DT, CI = 4.5. Intensity set to 75 knots.

Intensity based on SATCON and subjective Dvorak. Objective available aids at
0000 UTC: ADT 74 kn, AiDT 68 kn, DPRINT 68 kn, DMINT 78 kts, SATCON 81 kn (all
1 min mean). An earlier AMSR2 pass at 1859 UTC indicated a max wind of 75-80
knots and a SAR pass at 1224 UTC indicated a max wind of 81 knots.

The environment remains conducive for further development. CIMSS analysis
suggests deep layer shear values over the system remain at 15-20 kn east to
northeasterly. Near the centre of Vince, there may be limited influence of this
vertical wind shear due to fast WSW motion at 13 knots. Strong outflow to the
west and south ahead of an upper trough to the SW is maintaining supportive
dynamics. Slow intensification is forecast over the next 24 hours as Vince
moves out of the Australian region.

There is very good model consensus in the forecast track, with a robust
steering pattern north of a mid-level anticyclone in place until mid-week.
Vince will continue to track to the west southwest and will move out of the
Australian region by later today (Tuesday).

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0656 UTC 04/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.8S
Longitude: 89.7E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (251 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (23 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 967 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm (295 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm (295 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 04/1200: 18.1S 88.8E: 030 (055): 080 (150): 963
+12: 04/1800: 18.4S 87.7E: 035 (070): 085 (155): 960
+18: 05/0000: 18.6S 86.5E: 045 (085): 085 (155): 960
+24: 05/0600: 18.8S 85.4E: 050 (095): 085 (155): 960
+36: 05/1800: : : :
+48: 06/0600: : : :
+60: 06/1800: : : :
+72: 07/0600: : : :
+96: 08/0600: : : :
+120: 09/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) suggests Vince continues to strengthen in
moderate shear.

Good confidence in centre position based on eye feature in VIS and IR imagery.
Dvorak analysis: DT at 0600 UTC was 5.0 based on LG surrounding DG eye (3-hour
average DT was 4.5). MET is 4.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, with no PAT
adjustment made. FT = 4.5 based on 3-hour DT, CI = 4.5. Intensity set to 80
knots.

Intensity based on SAR pass, SATCON and subjective Dvorak. Objective available
aids at 0600 UTC: ADT 82 kn, AiDT 85 kn, DPRINT 75 kn, DMINT 78 kts, SATCON 93
kn (all 1 min mean). An earlier SAR pass pass at 2333 UTC indicated a max wind
of 80 to 90 knots.

The environment remains conducive for further development. CIMSS analysis
suggests deep layer shear values over the system remain at 20 kn east to
northeasterly. Near the centre of Vince, there may be limited influence of this
vertical wind shear due to fast WSW motion at 13 knots. Strong outflow to the
west and south ahead of an upper trough to the SW is maintaining supportive
dynamics. Slow intensification is forecast over the next 24 hours as Vince
continues to track west.

There is very good model consensus in the forecast track, with a robust
steering pattern north of a mid-level anticyclone in place until mid-week.
Vince will continue to track to the west southwest and is now out of the
Australian region.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 974 hPa.

Position on February 4 at 4 p.m. local time Reunion: 18.0 South / 89.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 3485 km to the EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 4720 km in the EAST-SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.


System Information:

- Tropical Cyclone VINCE entered our area of ​​responsibility this morning. It is currently evolving over the extreme east of our basin, far from any inhabited land. Over the last few hours, it has weakened slightly.

- For the next 5 days, VINCE is expected to move in a west-southwest direction while remaining at a mature stage (tropical cyclone or intense tropical cyclone).

- It poses no threat to inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 8

(VINCE)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 976 hPa.

Position on February 4 at 10 p.m. local time: 18.4 South / 88.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 3370 km to the sector: EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 4620 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.


System Information:

- Tropical cyclone VINCE, which entered our area of ​​responsibility this morning, is currently moving to the far east of our basin, very far from any inhabited land.

- VINCE is currently showing a slight temporary decrease in intensity likely due to an eye wall cycle.

- For the next 5 days, VINCE is expected to move in a west-southwest direction while remaining at least a tropical cyclone. Afterwards, it will take a more southwesterly direction, leaving it far from inhabited land.

- It poses no threat to inhabited land.