SPAC: 06F - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

92P INVEST 250202 0000 12.6S 158.4E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S 159.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 812 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A
PARTIAL 031742Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30
KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE WITH
BANDS OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXHIBITING RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND TRACK IN A
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD06F CENTRE [997HPA] SYSTEM WAS ANALYSED NEAR
17.6S 160.6E AT 040600UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD06F
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS
TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC FROM THE NORTHEAST. ORGANISATION REMAINS
POOR. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE SPCZ WITH AN ELONGATED
CENTRE. TD06F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE MID LEVEL SHEAR, WITH HIGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UP TO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. TD06F IS BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THIS SYSTEM HAS MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD06F CENTRE [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.5S 161.4E AT
050600UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD06F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.

TD06F IS AFFECTED BY CLOUD TOP WARMING WITH LLCC SLIGHTLY EXPOSED. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE SPCZ WITH AN ELONGATED CENTRE.
TD06F LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UP TO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD06F IS
BEING STEERED TOWARDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN. TD06F IS
EXPECTED TO BE IMPEDED BY THE NEW CALEDONIA LAND MASS WHICH WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD06F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.9S 162.0E AT
052100UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD06F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.

TD06F LLCC IS EXPOSED AND CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM HAS AN ELONGATED CENTRE. TD06F LIES
IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR UPPER DIVERGENCE AND GOOD LOWER
CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UP TO 700HPA.
SST IS AROUND 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD06F IS BEING STEERED TOWARDS SOUTH BY THE
NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN. TD06F IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPEDED BY THE NEW CALEDONIA
LAND MASS WHICH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD06F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 24.2S 170.3E AT
070600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD06F SLOW MOVING.

TD06F LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. TD06F INTERACTION WITH NEW CALEDONIA LAND
MASS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM. ORGANISATION POOR. THE SYSTEM HAS AN
ELONGATED CENTRE. TD06F LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UP TO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TD06F IS BEING STEERED TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BY THE NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER
MEAN.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD06F SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS IS LOW.