Texas Winter 2024-2025

[cajungal]

Well Phil just saw his shadow so guess you may be right about winter

[Brent]

Yeah I'm seeing several people up here talk about cold air

Still over a week out though. Nothing before next Sunday at the earliest

[cajungal]

Well for us in Louisiana all the Mets said spring temps for us for next 10 days at least

[Tammie]

BAM Weather is still onboard in a big way. Pretty maps too!
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188606677 ... J0be-HnN-w

[Ntxw]

AO is now progged to go pretty negative just about the time MJO is quickly moving out of P5-6 into better phases. With major SSW being shown to possibly occur, winter will return mid Feb. It may be below normal through mid March if history is of any indicator.

To add this is a La Nina constructive interference so 1989 Feb-March may work out.

[gpsnowman]

AO is now progged to go pretty negative just about the time MJO is quickly moving out of P5-6 into better phases. With major SSW being shown to possibly occur, winter will return mid Feb. It may be below normal through mid March if history is of any indicator.

Are we looking at a stretch or a split with the PV? I've read both are possibilities at this point. Things seem to be moving quickly regarding the PV when a lag time is usually the norm.

[Ntxw]

AO is now progged to go pretty negative just about the time MJO is quickly moving out of P5-6 into better phases. With major SSW being shown to possibly occur, winter will return mid Feb. It may be below normal through mid March if history is of any indicator.

Are we looking at a stretch or a split with the PV? I've read both are possibilities at this point. Things seem to be moving quickly regarding the PV when a lag time is usually the norm.

It doesn't really matter. The whole intention of a stratwarm event is to get the AO negative and unload cold which it will likely be anyway. It's chicken or egg thing. If the SSW propagates down (meaning strat PV is weak/split) it will keep the negative AO in place. The -AO is appearing because the MJO (tropical forcing) becomes favorable for wave 1 and 2 (Pacific and Atlantic) to attack the strat PV by wavebreaks in the troposphere and so on. My two cents to this complex thing .

Key is wind weakening and reversal in the stratosphere which a few ensemble show. But the GFS and Euro are showing split. It's been a good sample winter where the strat PV isn't a driver, rather the tropical forcing is and everything else is a reactionary indicator.

[gpsnowman]

Thanks for the explanation. Very complex and very fascinating.

[Ntxw]

Thanks for the explanation. Very complex and very fascinating.

Very complex! Best analogy/visual I like to use for it is to picture a giant JENGA tower is the winter PV from top to bottom above the polar sphere of the Earth. You can take pieces from the top to disturb the tower, but often nothing really happens (warming head fakes) that don't propagate downward, just a scare. But the bottom pieces in the troposphere where we live (tropical forcing bottom up type events) that are disturbed/removed can topple the whole thing (major SSW) and the whole thing comes down.

[gpsnowman]

Mountain cedar season is here. I have an outdoor day planned today and my allergies are already kicking my butt. Not being able to enjoy the outdoors this time of year really sucks.

[Stratton23]

CMC, now thats a true bitter cold airmass, even if it has a cold bias, that is a distinct possibility given the teleconnections in place, typical GFS still cant see the cold air lol, what else is new?

[wxman22]

[Brent]

Right on cue posts here about winter coming back again

I think they just copy whatever the GFS shows

[Stratton23]

Euro/CMC have the setup in the right position to funnel extremely cold air down into the central and southern US, ensembles are trending even colder, gonna be quite the interesting pattern to follow

[cheezyWXguy]

Probably a bit premature since it’s so far out, but feel like I gotta give it to JB for pointing this out a few days ago. Couldn’t care less for his politics or his hype machine, but he’s good at pattern recognition.

[Cpv17]

Pretty impressive blocking showing up on the models.

[captainbarbossa19]

Big Al the alligator says 6 more weeks of winter because he didn't eat his steak. He sometimes will on Groundhog Day but he didn't this year. It is warm and he still is in hibernation mode so get ready for more cold everyone!

[Sambucol2024]

Euro/CMC have the setup in the right position to funnel extremely cold air down into the central and southern US, ensembles are trending even colder, gonna be quite the interesting pattern to follow

What kind of temps are showing for southeast Texas? How cold is older here?

[Brent]

The same met in OKC has made 3 posts about extremely cold air since last night this is still over a week out!! Like this is crazy considering how warm it's gonna be for the next week

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 too early to tell you how cold, but the potential is certainly their for this pattern to deliver even colder air than what we saw in january, all of the teleconnections are lining up perfectly, one big difference between this pattern and january, is that this pattern is going to feature a strong -NAO block, that cold air is not moving out fast once it arrives