Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

That being said, i dont really care if we see any wintry precipitation or not, just bring me the cold! This warmth is absolutely miserable, I cant stand it!

[Ntxw]

That being said, i dont really care if we see any wintry precipitation or not, just bring me the cold! This warmth is absolutely miserable, I cant stand it!

Tell me about it. Running the AC already, this week's going to be brutal, criminal in February.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw I went outside to water our plants in the backyard, not even 5 minutes out there and im getting swarmed by mosquitoes, that is beyond offensive lol

[orangeblood]

PNA starting to rear its head again.

maybe on individual Ops runs but not the ENS Mean depictions, its textbook southern plains winter storm pattern (and multiple)!

As all of us "model watchers" have experienced over the years, week 2 heavily weighted towards ENS Mean then transition to more Ops week 1

[Tammie]

BAM Weather is being rather confident these last few days. Pretty maps in the link:
“New ECMWF just slams us with 2 shots of Arctic air inside of 15 days.

Very cold morning run here.

Snow galore as-well.”

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188647988 ... J0be-HnN-w

[Cpv17]

BAM Weather is being rather confident these last few days. Pretty maps in the link:
“New ECMWF just slams us with 2 shots of Arctic air inside of 15 days.

Very cold morning run here.

Snow galore as-well.”

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/188647988 ... J0be-HnN-w

What the heck? Barely even any decent cold makes it to the southern U.S. with that big batch of cold late in the run.

[Cpv17]

Thought we were done with this +PNA bs.

[Edwards Limestone]

Record highs this week in SCTX. Gonna be 86 on Saturday....summer is gonna suck!

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 I wouldnt worry about the operational runs that far out, the volatility from each run is high, its a complex pattern for sure ill say that, but definitely one that had the potential to be a big model bust because the key players are certainly there to make that happen, as for the Euro op showing a + PNA, toss that in the trash, even its own ensemble stays neutral to negative, not even getting close to positive

[gpsnowman]

That being said, i dont really care if we see any wintry precipitation or not, just bring me the cold! This warmth is absolutely miserable, I cant stand it!

Tell me about it. Running the AC already, this week's going to be brutal, criminal in February.

This warmth is definitely on the ridiculous side. Very warm yesterday doing yardwork and washing cars. Bring on the cold.

[Brent]

Meanwhile someone here just posted about a winter storm next week

[orangeblood]

Cpv17 I wouldnt worry about the operational runs that far out, the volatility from each run is high, its a complex pattern for sure ill say that, but definitely one that had the potential to be a big model bust because the key players are certainly there to make that happen, as for the Euro op showing a + PNA, toss that in the trash, even its own ensemble stays neutral to negative, not even getting close to positive

Agreed, it's not really a positive PNA looking pattern but there is a threat the storm track stays a little too far north keeping most of it across n/2 of country. Cold Air is definitely there across the northern tier just a matter of getting systems to dig far enough south

[wxman57]

Both the 12Z EC and GFS backed off on any significant cold across TX in the 10-15 day time frame. EC has a light freeze in the D-FW area on the 13th, and only 40 here in Houston. Nothing colder through 360 hrs. Meanwhile, it's a cool 78 degrees in southwest Houston. Brutal heat? I don't think so. I don't have my AC on, but I was finally able to turn the little heater on my desktop off.

[Stratton23]

one week in the 70’s and 80’s and then the polar plunge in 10-12 days, gotta love texas weather!

[Quixotic]

Wild ups and downs concerning temps is par for the course during La Niña/La Nada winters. 96 was a trip. 8 degrees in early February at DFW and 96 a couple of weeks later.

Im on board with the cold. Too many teles in favor of it. Particularly the MJO.

[snownado]

I am not concerned for Houston. My walls will hold, and I've given my pilot the month off since he won't be needed to evacuate me to Australia. Careful believing the 14-16 day 00Z GFS.

MAWA!

[snownado]

Both the 12Z EC and GFS backed off on any significant cold across TX in the 10-15 day time frame. EC has a light freeze in the D-FW area on the 13th, and only 40 here in Houston. Nothing colder through 360 hrs. Meanwhile, it's a cool 78 degrees in southwest Houston. Brutal heat? I don't think so. I don't have my AC on, but I was finally able to turn the little heater on my desktop off.

I still have my heat on

*shrugs*

[Stratton23]

Anything above 60 is considered brutal heat lol

[snownado]

Already 82*F as of 2pm at DFW. Definitely a reasonable shot at tying that daily record high with full insolation.

[Brent]

Another post here about a winter storm next week