SIO: TALIAH - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1330 UTC 03/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 113.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 03/1800: 15.1S 113.0E: 030 (060): 070 (130): 967
+12: 04/0000: 15.3S 112.3E: 040 (075): 085 (155): 954
+18: 04/0600: 15.5S 111.4E: 050 (095): 090 (165): 950
+24: 04/1200: 15.8S 110.6E: 060 (110): 090 (165): 950
+36: 05/0000: 16.0S 108.0E: 070 (130): 090 (165): 951
+48: 05/1200: 15.8S 105.4E: 085 (155): 090 (165): 951
+60: 06/0000: 15.7S 102.9E: 095 (175): 090 (165): 951
+72: 06/1200: 16.0S 100.5E: 115 (210): 085 (155): 956
+96: 07/1200: 16.9S 95.5E: 155 (285): 080 (150): 960
+120: 08/1200: 17.2S 91.4E: 195 (360): 080 (150): 959
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Taliah is intensifying as it moves west over open waters north
of Western Australia.

Taliah was located using enhanced IR satellite imagery, and earlier AMSR2
microwave pass with high confidence. A deep convective burst is occurring over
the centre combined with ongoing convective banding to the west and north.

Intensity Vm=60kn based on subjective Dvorak consistent with most objective
guidance.

Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=4.0. DT not assigned although pattern is now more like
embedded centre which is technically not yet permitted, 24h trend is D and
adjusted MET=4.0. Objective intensity aids are ADT 77 kn(CI=4.5), AiDT 72 kn,
D-PRINT 42 kn, no recent SATCON or DMINT(all 1-minute). AMSR2 at 0628UTC
indicated winds exceeding 80kn but this is inconsistent with other evidence.

Taliah is steered to the west by a strong ridge to the south. There is strong
consensus in the guidance of this movement continuing for at least the next 5
days, with less across track spread than along track spread. Taliah is expected
to track generally westwards and leave the Australian region (90E) by about
Sunday 9 February.

CIMMS shear analysis indicates about 20-25 knots of shear over the centre, with
a sharp temperature gradient on the eastern boundary. The upper flow is split
in this region and indications in the microwave imagery that the inner core is
developing despite the shear. Otherwise upper divergence is good over the
circulation and SSTs are 30-31C. The SSTs gradually decrease to around 28C west
of 105E. Ongoing easterly wind shear and potentially some slightly drier air
may be impediments to intensification from about +24h so forecast intensity
peaks at 90kn and plateaus at 80kn, lower than earlier forecast intensity.
Potentially Taliah weakens much faster than that as there is some potential to
move over cooler waters stirred by TC Vince as Taliah moves west of 100E later
this week.

[cycloneye]

I think the area of convection that has remained in front of the circulation is the cause for this cyclone to not intensify too much so far.

[cycloneye]

70kt.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1936 UTC 03/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 113.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (266 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 967 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 04/0000: 15.3S 112.3E: 030 (060): 075 (140): 963
+12: 04/0600: 15.6S 111.4E: 040 (075): 080 (150): 960
+18: 04/1200: 15.9S 110.6E: 050 (090): 080 (150): 959
+24: 04/1800: 16.1S 109.4E: 050 (090): 080 (150): 960
+36: 05/0600: 16.0S 106.7E: 065 (115): 080 (150): 961
+48: 05/1800: 15.8S 104.1E: 075 (135): 080 (150): 961
+60: 06/0600: 15.9S 101.7E: 090 (165): 080 (150): 961
+72: 06/1800: 16.3S 99.2E: 105 (195): 080 (150): 961
+96: 07/1800: 17.0S 94.3E: 160 (300): 080 (150): 960
+120: 08/1800: 17.3S 90.6E: 210 (385): 080 (150): 959
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah has intensified as it moves west over open
waters north of Western Australia.

Taliah was located using enhanced IR satellite imagery, and earlier ASCAT-C
1348UTC and SAR 1048UTC with high confidence. Strong deep convective near the
centre has been offset by the intrusion of some drier air from the southeast
which has contributed to an active lightning regime in the west of the
circulation.

Intensity Vm=70kn influenced by SAR pass, higher than subjective Dvorak but
consistent with SATCON/ADT.

Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=4.0. DT somewhat difficult as the embedded centre
(embedded in B - DT=5.0) is technically not yet permitted, 24h trend is D for
an unadjusted MET=4.0. Objective intensity aids are SATCON 73kn, ADT 79
kn(CI=4.6 but FT=3.8), AiDT 76 kn, D-PRINT 51 kn, no recent DMINT (all
1-minute). SAR at 1028UTC indicated winds exceeding 65kn in all quadrants with
peak equivalent 10min in the region of 70-75kn.

Taliah is steered to the west by a strong ridge to the south. There is strong
consensus in the guidance of this movement continuing for at least the next 5
days, with less across track spread than along track spread. Taliah is expected
to track generally westwards and leave the Australian region (90E) by about
Sunday 9 February.

CIMMS shear analysis indicates ongoing 20-25 knots of shear over the centre,
which models indicate will continue. Despite the shear and some dry air from
the southeast, the circulation has developed. Otherwise upper divergence is
good over the circulation and SSTs are 30-31C. The SSTs gradually decrease to
around 28C west of 105E. The forecast intensity is challenging with mixed
environmental influences. The forecast has been moderated to plateau at 80kn
although Taliah will likely oscillate somewhat as it battles the shear. While
some guidance suggests weakening (e.g. HFSA) others suggest continuing at
category three intensity for some time. Potentially Taliah weakens faster if
it encounters the cooler waters stirred by Severe TC Vince west of 100E later
this week.

[cycloneye]

Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0051 UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal two south (15.2S)
longitude one hundred and twelve decimal one east (112.1E)
Recent movement : west at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 968 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 1200 UTC 04
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 04 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.7 south 110.6 east
Central pressure 959 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 05 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.8 south 108.2 east
Central pressure 961 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 04 February 2025.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthening has stalled as it continues to
move west over open waters northwest of Western Australia. Taliah was located
using visible imagery and an OSCAT pass at 0430UTC with high confidence. Some
cloud top warming over the past six hours is evident however Taliah is
maintaining reasonable structure.

Dvorak analysis with a curved band of approximately 1.0 gives a DT of 4.0. MET
is 3.0 based on a S 24-hour trend due to improved convective structure over the
LLCC offset by warmer cloud tops. FT is 3.5 based on PAT as DT not clear cut,
with CI held at 4.0. Objective intensity aids are SATCON 68kn, ADT 87 kn
(FT/CI=4.0/4.9), AiDT 74 kn, D-PRINT 65 kn, DMINT 52 kn (all 1 min). Intensity
is set at 70 kn higher than subjective Dvorak but consistent with SATCON/ADT.

Taliah is steered to the west by a strong ridge to the south. There is strong
consensus in the guidance of this movement continuing for at least the next 5
days, with less across track spread than along track spread. Taliah is expected
to track generally westwards and leave the Australian region (90E) on Sunday 9
February.

Latest CIMMS analysis indicates an increase to 33 knots of shear over the
centre and although there may be some tilting of the vortex with height, the
LLCC remains well underneath the convection. Models indicate that moderate
shear will continue. Despite the shear and some dry air from the southeast, the
circulation is maintaining its strength. Otherwise upper divergence is good
over the circulation and SSTs are 30-31C. The SSTs gradually decrease to around
28C west of 105E. The forecast intensity is challenging with mixed
environmental influences. The forecast has been moderated to plateau at 80kn
although Taliah will likely oscillate somewhat as it battles the shear. While
some guidance suggests weakening (e.g. HFSA) others suggest continuing at
category three intensity for some time. Potentially Taliah weakens faster if
it encounters the cooler waters stirred by Severe TC Vince west of 100E later
this week.

[cycloneye]

Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1922 UTC 04/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 109.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west (259 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 05/0000: 15.6S 108.5E: 035 (070): 075 (140): 965
+12: 05/0600: 15.4S 107.3E: 045 (080): 070 (130): 969
+18: 05/1200: 15.3S 106.3E: 045 (085): 070 (130): 969
+24: 05/1800: 15.2S 105.1E: 050 (090): 070 (130): 969
+36: 06/0600: 15.2S 102.8E: 060 (115): 065 (120): 973
+48: 06/1800: 15.4S 100.4E: 075 (140): 065 (120): 974
+60: 07/0600: 15.9S 97.8E: 090 (170): 065 (120): 974
+72: 07/1800: 16.2S 95.5E: 105 (190): 065 (120): 973
+96: 08/1800: 16.4S 92.1E: 140 (265): 075 (140): 964
+120: 09/1800: 16.9S 90.3E: 175 (330): 085 (155): 953
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah continues to be a strong system despite high
wind shear.

Taliah was located using combination of infra-red and earlier microwave (SSMIS
at 1138UTC) with moderate confidence. An eye in infra-red earlier was
short-lived and now the centre is embedded in deep cold cloud. Earlier
microwave (SSMIS 1138UTC) shows a reasonably strong inner core while SAR RCM3
at 1058UTC showed the highest winds to the northeast.

Intensity: 75kn perhaps conservatively biased high from earlier SAR RCM3 at
1058UTC, and on the high side of subjective Dvorak and higher than objective
estimates.

Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=4.0/4.5 based upon DT=4.0 embedded in MG, MET=4.0 from
S/24h without adjustment. Objective intensity aids have reduced and now SATCON
61kn, ADT 59kn (FT/CI=3.7/3.7), AiDT 54kn, D-PRINT 66kn, DMINT (1140UTC) 67kn
(all 1 min).

Taliah continues to be steered to the west by a strong ridge to the south.
There is strong consensus in the guidance of this movement continuing for at
least the next 5 days, with less across track spread than along track spread.
Taliah is expected to track generally westwards and leave the Australian region
(90E) by Monday 10 February at which point it should be moving more slowly to
the southwest as the ridge weakens.

CIMMS wind shear analysis indicates ongoing strong (30 kn) shear over the
circulation. However the circulation is remarkably holding its own with deep
convection extending upshear to shield the inner core. The shear and ingestion
of some drier air from the southeast is preventing an eye from developing with
lightning also an indicator of some dry air ingested. The SSMIS 1138UTC showed
a tightening inner core but has possible weakened since then. Some slight
weakening is forecast in the next 24-48h as the ongoing shear may take some
impact and the upper level outflow reduces somewhat. Some re-intensification is
forecast beyond 72h (late Friday through Sunday) as the shear eases and upper
level outflow increases, although guidance is mixed at this range.

[cycloneye]

Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0727 UTC 05/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 107.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (280 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (21 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (40 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 05/1200: 15.4S 106.2E: 040 (080): 055 (100): 980
+12: 05/1800: 15.3S 105.0E: 050 (095): 055 (100): 981
+18: 06/0000: 15.3S 103.9E: 060 (110): 055 (100): 981
+24: 06/0600: 15.4S 102.7E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 984
+36: 06/1800: 15.8S 100.4E: 070 (125): 050 (095): 984
+48: 07/0600: 16.2S 97.9E: 080 (145): 055 (100): 981
+60: 07/1800: 16.4S 95.5E: 085 (160): 065 (120): 974
+72: 08/0600: 16.3S 93.3E: 100 (190): 070 (130): 970
+96: 09/0600: 16.1S 90.6E: 140 (260): 075 (140): 964
+120: 10/0600: 16.2S 89.1E: 175 (325): 075 (140): 962
REMARKS:
Taliah has weakened to a category 2 system.

Taliah's position was determined using a combination of enhanced visible
imagery and a recent earlier scatterometer image (ASCAT-B 0121 UTC), with
moderate confidence. Over the past few hours, the system has continued to
weaken, likely due to dry air intrusion from the east. Under the influence of
strong wind shear, Taliah is tilting westward.

Intensity: 55kn biased to subjective Dvorak, objective estimates are slightly
lower.

Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=4.0/4.0 based upon DT=4.0 embedded in MG, MET=4.0 from
S/24h with no adjustment. Objective intensity aids ADT 47kn, AiDT 58kn, D-PRINT
42kn, SATCON (0600UTC) 58kn (all 1 min).

Taliah continues to be steered to the west by a strong ridge to the south.
There continues to be a strong agreement in the guidance of this movement
persisting for at least the next 5 days, with less across track spread than
along track spread. Taliah is expected to track generally westwards and leave
the Australian region (90E) by Monday or Tuesday at which point it should be
moving more slowly to the southwest as the ridge weakens.

CIMMS wind shear analysis indicates ongoing strong (30-35 kn) shear over the
circulation. Taliah is doing relatively well considering the strong shear. The
shear and ingestion of some drier air from the southeast is weakening Taliah.
TC intensity forecast in the next 24-48h should range between 50-60 knots as
the ongoing shear may take some impact and the upper level outflow reduces
somewhat. Some re-intensification is forecast beyond 72h (late Friday through
Sunday) as the shear eases and upper level outflow increases, although guidance
is mixed at this range.

[cycloneye]

Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0053 UTC 06/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 105.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 06/0600: 15.0S 104.0E: 040 (080): 050 (095): 985
+12: 06/1200: 15.3S 102.9E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 984
+18: 06/1800: 15.6S 101.5E: 060 (105): 050 (095): 985
+24: 07/0000: 15.8S 100.2E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 985
+36: 07/1200: 16.2S 98.2E: 080 (145): 055 (100): 981
+48: 08/0000: 16.1S 96.0E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 977
+60: 08/1200: 16.0S 94.4E: 095 (175): 065 (120): 973
+72: 09/0000: 15.7S 93.1E: 105 (195): 075 (140): 964
+96: 10/0000: 15.4S 91.7E: 150 (280): 075 (140): 963
+120: 11/0000: 15.7S 90.2E: 185 (340): 075 (140): 963
REMARKS:
Taliah is slowly weakening under the influence of strong shear.

Taliah's position was determined using a combination of overnight microwave
passes and animated satellite imagery with low confidence. A low level cloud
centre is partially visible with deep convection persisting in the western
quadrants.

Intensity: 50kn biased to subjective Dvorak and the ASCAT B pass from Wednesday
night.

Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=3.0/3.5 based upon DT=3.0 shear pattern, MET=3.0 from
W-/24h, PAT=3.0 with no adjustment. Objective intensity aids ADT 39kn, AiDT
43kn, D-PRINT 39kn, DMINT 46kn (1848 UTC), SATCON (1900UTC) 46kn (all 1 min).

Taliah is being steered to the west by a strong ridge to the south. There is
strong agreement in the guidance of this movement persisting for at least the
next 5 days. Taliah's speed of movement is forecast to slow from Saturday and
the system is expected to leave the Australian region (90E) by Monday or
Tuesday.

CIMSS wind shear analysis indicates ongoing strong (~30 kn) southeast shear
over the circulation. The shear and ingestion of some drier air from the east
is weakening Taliah. TC intensity forecast in the next 36-48h should range
between 45-60 knots due to the ongoing shear and dry air entrainment. Whilst
there is some disagreement in guidance beyond this time, re-intensification is
forecast from late Friday through Sunday. Shear is expected to ease over the
weekend and moisture levels increase around the system. During Sunday the
approach of an upper level trough increases poleward outflow which should also
assist redevelopment.

[WaveBreaking]

[cycloneye]

Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0651 UTC 06/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 103.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 12 knots (22 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 06/1200: 15.1S 102.2E: 040 (080): 050 (095): 987
+12: 06/1800: 15.4S 100.8E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 987
+18: 07/0000: 15.5S 99.5E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 987
+24: 07/0600: 15.8S 98.5E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 986
+36: 07/1800: 16.0S 96.4E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 980
+48: 08/0600: 15.8S 94.5E: 090 (165): 065 (120): 975
+60: 08/1800: 15.6S 93.1E: 095 (175): 070 (130): 971
+72: 09/0600: 15.3S 91.9E: 105 (200): 075 (140): 966
+96: 10/0600: 15.1S 90.8E: 155 (285): 075 (140): 964
+120: 11/0600: 15.8S 89.0E: 195 (360): 075 (140): 965
REMARKS:
Taliah is maintaining a Category 2 intensity despite being under high wind
shear.

Taliah's position was determined using a combination of a morning ASCAT pass
and animated satellite imagery with moderate confidence. The ASCAT pass showed
an elongated centre with gales in all quadrants and storm force winds present
in northern quadrants. A low level cloud centre is partially visible on
satellite imagery with deep convection persisting in the western quadrants.

Intensity: 50kn biased to the ASCAT B pass from Thursday morning.

Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=3.0/3.0 based upon DT=3.0 shear pattern, MET=3.0 from
S/24h, PAT=3.0 with no adjustment. Objective intensity aids ADT 34kn, AiDT
40kn, D-PRINT 36kn, DMINT 46kn (1848 UTC), SATCON (1900UTC) 46kn (all 1 min).

Taliah is being steered to the west by a strong ridge to the south. There is
strong agreement in the guidance of this movement persisting for at least the
next 3 to 4 days. Taliah's speed of movement is forecast to slow Saturday or
Sunday and the system is expected to leave the Australian region (90E) by
Monday or Tuesday.

CIMSS wind shear analysis indicates ongoing strong (~25 kn) easterly shear over
the circulation and there is the slight possibility that Taliah may weaken to
below tropical cyclone strength over the next 12 to 24 hours. If this happens
gales are likely to persist in some quadrants. Model guidance indicates that in
the longer term wind shear decreases and the environment becomes favourable for
redevelopment. This improves further during Sunday with the approach of an
upper level trough that will increase upper level poleward outflow. The current
forecast maintains the intensity of Taliah through until late Friday when it is
forecast to increase again and it seems likely that Taliah will exit the
Australian region as a severe tropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1249 UTC 07/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 98.1E
Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (244 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (21 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 07/1800: 16.3S 97.0E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 992
+12: 08/0000: 16.2S 96.0E: 060 (110): 040 (075): 992
+18: 08/0600: 16.1S 95.1E: 065 (115): 045 (085): 989
+24: 08/1200: 16.1S 94.4E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 989
+36: 09/0000: 15.5S 93.1E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 982
+48: 09/1200: 15.0S 92.5E: 065 (120): 065 (120): 973
+60: 10/0000: 14.5S 92.4E: 075 (140): 065 (120): 972
+72: 10/1200: 14.5S 92.3E: 085 (155): 070 (130): 967
+96: 11/1200: 15.5S 90.9E: 135 (245): 070 (130): 969
+120: 12/1200: 17.9S 88.6E: 180 (330): 065 (120): 975
REMARKS:
Although wind shear has slightly decreased, Taliah continues to slowly weaken.

Taliah was located using animated VIS satellite imagery and track persistence
with low confidence.
Intensity: 40kn biased to subjective Dvorak and objective guidance.
Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=2.5/3.0 based upon DT = 2.5 with 0.5 curved band wrap.
MET = 3.0 based on 24 hour W- trend, PAT = 2.5. CI held at 3.0. Objective
intensity aids ADT 43kn, AiDT 37kn, D-PRINT 41kn, SATCON 40kn (all 1 min).

Taliah is currently being steered to the west-southwest by a strong ridge and
associated mid-level anticyclone to the south. The forecast movement remains
largely westwards over the next 24 hours as the mid-level anticyclone tracks to
the east. As a new mid-level anticyclone builds to the south over the weekend,
Taliah is forecast to start tracking west-northwest before slowing down on
Monday. Taliah is forecast to leave the Australian region (90E) on Tuesday or
Wednesday.

CIMSS wind shear analysis indicates moderate (20 kn) easterly shear over the
circulation and there is the slight possibility that Taliah may weaken to below
tropical cyclone strength over the next 12 to 18 hours. If this happens gales
are likely to persist in some quadrants. Model guidance indicates that wind
shear should decrease and the environment becomes favourable for redevelopment
during Saturday. The current forecast has Taliah persisting as a category 1
through until late Saturday when it may re-intensify to category 2, and then
category 3 later on Sunday.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
Taliah was located using animated VIS satellite imagery and persistence.

Intensity: 45kn based on Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=3.0/3.0 based upon MET = 3.0
with centre position located underneath dense overcast region. Objective
intensity aids ADT 57kn, AiDT 44kn, D-PRINT 41kn, SATCON 47kn (all 1 min).

CIMSS wind shear analysis indicates moderate (15kn) easterly shear, expected to
drop in the next 24 hours as the ridge weakens. The system is supported by deep
low to mid-level moisture with warm SSTs (28C). The passage of the upper trough
in the 24 hours may also provide increased upper level divergence. The factors
will favour Taliah to increase in intensity during the forecast period. Taliah
is expected to intensify to a category 2 cyclone on Sunday and then to a
category 3 on Monday.

Taliah is being steered to the west by a strong middle level ridge located to
its southeast. The ridge weakens in the next 24 hours with the passage of a
shortwave upper trough passing to the south. As a result, Taliah slows down and
tracks slightly north-westwards before a new mid-level anticyclone builds to
the south-southwest early next week. The ridge will push northeastwards of
Taliah, forcing it to take a south-westwards movement from Tuesday next week.
Taliah is forecast to leave the Australian region (90E) early on Wednesday as a
category 3 cyclone.

[cycloneye]

Making a comeback.


Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0651 UTC 09/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.5S
Longitude: 94.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 90 nm (165 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 360 nm (670 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/1200: 15.4S 93.8E: 040 (080): 040 (075): 995
+12: 09/1800: 15.1S 93.5E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 992
+18: 10/0000: 14.9S 93.2E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 992
+24: 10/0600: 14.6S 92.9E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 988
+36: 10/1800: 14.6S 92.5E: 075 (145): 060 (110): 981
+48: 11/0600: 15.1S 91.8E: 085 (160): 070 (130): 974
+60: 11/1800: 16.1S 91.0E: 100 (180): 070 (130): 974
+72: 12/0600: 17.4S 90.0E: 120 (225): 070 (130): 974
+96: 13/0600: 20.9S 87.3E: 175 (325): 060 (110): 979
+120: 14/0600: 23.3S 85.4E: 210 (385): 055 (100): 980
REMARKS:
Taliah was located using animated VIS satellite and microwave imagery.
Intensity is set at 35kn based Dvorak analysis DT=3.0 based on curved band
pattern wrapping log 10 0.6 degrees. FT=3.0 based on MET adjusted using PT. CI
equal to 3.0. 0234Z ASCAT pass indicated absence of gales in any of the
quadrants. Objective intensity aids ADT 51kn, AiDT 42kn, D-PRINT 42kn, SATCON
45kn (all 1 min).

CIMSS wind shear analysis indicates 20-25kn easterly shear. Deep convection
persists near centre despite strong shear and diurnal convective minima. System
hasn't shown much organisation in the last 24 hours.

Taliah continues to be supported by low-level monsoon flow to the north with
deep low to mid-level moisture. SSTs are around 28C. There is upper divergence
support to the south with an upper trough nearby. The environment is favourable
for Taliah to increase in intensity during the next 24 to 48 hours. Taliah is
expected to intensify to a category 2 cyclone during Monday and then to a
category 3 on Tuesday.

Taliah is being steered by a weakening mid-level ridge located to its
southeast. The ridge will weaken further in the next 24 hours with the passage
of a shortwave upper trough passing to the south. A new ridge pushes behind the
trough, forcing Taliah to take a south-westwards movement from Tuesday. Taliah
is forecast to leave the Australian region (90E) early on Wednesday as a
category 3 cyclone.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TrevorTropicsWX/status/1888792233857462490

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
Taliah has started moving to the southwest. The deep convection near the centre
persists and shows moments of improving curvature.

Animated EIR and a partial microwave pass was used to determine the position
with fair confidence.

Intensity is set at 40 knots, based on subject Dvorak. Dvorak analysis: DT=3.0
based on curved band 0.6 wrap, MET=3.5 from D-/24h, adjusted to 3.0 with PAT,
FT of 3.0 and CI of 3.0. Objective intensity aids that are current are ADT
53kn, AiDT 41kn, D-PRINT 58kn, SATCON 41kn. DPRINT appears to be an outlier,
ADT has a uniform scene reducing confidence in that estimate.

Sea surface temperatures are around 28 to 29C and moisture remains high
supplied by tropical flow to the north and east of Taliah. Vertical wind shear
remains a threat to the intensification of Taliah, with shear analysed at about
20 knots over the system centre. Although shear may abate slowly during the
track, it is expected to remain a factor in the slow development of Taliah with
a D- trend forecast for the next 18 hours. A slow-moving upper trough to the
south may aid development over the next 18 to 72 hours, improving the upper
outflow to the south. Taliah is forecast to intensify to Category 2 on Tuesday
and Category 3 on Wednesday. From Thursday, cooler waters, reduced upper
support and increasing shear should lead to a weakening trend.

Taliah is being steered slowly to the southwest by a new mid-level ridge
building to the southeast. The ridge should build further on Wednesday,
resulting in Tahlia moving faster to the southwest. Taliah is forecast to leave
the Australian region (90E) on Wednesday and continue to track southwest.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0708 UTC 12/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.7S
Longitude: 90.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (199 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm (335 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 200 nm (370 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm (335 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 60 nm (110 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 12/1200: 18.9S 89.9E: 035 (060): 060 (110): 976
+12: 12/1800: 19.8S 89.1E: 040 (075): 060 (110): 976
+18: 13/0000: 20.7S 88.3E: 050 (090): 060 (110): 976
+24: 13/0600: 21.5S 87.3E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 979
+36: 13/1800: 22.7S 85.8E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 982
+48: 14/0600: 23.5S 84.6E: 075 (140): 045 (085): 986
+60: 14/1800: 24.0S 83.8E: 090 (170): 045 (085): 985
+72: 15/0600: 24.6S 83.0E: 110 (210): 045 (085): 986
+96: 16/0600: 26.5S 80.3E: 175 (325): 045 (085): 986
+120: 17/0600: 29.3S 78.2E: 215 (395): 045 (085): 984
REMARKS:
The low level circulation of Taliah is apparent on visible satellite imagery,
with good confidence in the position. Increased banding may result in an eye
re-forming overnight.

Intensity remains is set at 60 knots, based on Dvorak analysis remaining steady
and consistent with earlier AMSR2 and SAR wind analyses. Dvorak analysis: DT
averaged over 3 hours=4.0 based earlier on ragged elongated eye (OW surround,
WMG/OW eye temperature) and more recently a curved band in VIS of 1.1. MET=3.5
from D-/24h, PAT=3.5, FT/CI of 4.0 based on DT. Objective intensity aids at
0600 UTC; ADT 37kn, AiDT 55kn, D-PRINT 51kn, DMINT (2358 UTC) 55 kn, SATCON
(0330 UTC) 56kn (all 1 min mean).

Taliah has quite a large wind field, and the radius of maximum winds has
expanded to 60 nautical miles. As a result, it may react slower than usual to
any changes in environmental conditions.

Sea surface temperatures are around 27 to 28C, decreasing slowly to the south
and dropping below 26C at about 23-25 degrees South. Moisture remains high,
supplied by tropical flow to the northeast of Taliah. Wind shear is currently
low as Taliah lies in an upper ridge and on the northern edge of an upper
trough, however shear is expected to increase as this upper trough relaxes and
another trough approaches from the west. At the same time, the upper trough to
the south may improve the upper outflow and prevent weakening. Taliah is likely
to maintain intensity for the next 24-36 hours before gradually weakening.

Taliah has been steered slowly west by a mid-level ridge building to the
southeast and is now tracking southwest on the western periphery of this
mid-level ridge. The ridge should build further on Wednesday, resulting in
Taliah moving faster to the southwest. Taliah is forecast to leave the
Australian region (090E) later today and continue to track southwest. This will
be the last Technical Bulletin issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology,
with responsibility being handed over to RSMC La Reunion.

[cycloneye]

System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TALIAH


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 976 hPa.

Position on February 13 at 10 a.m. local time: 21.9 South / 87.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 3255 km to the sector: EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 4580 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 26 km/h.

Key messages:

- TALIAH has weakened to a severe tropical storm and is moving over the far east of the basin.

- The system will move southwestward over the next few days, with intensity fluctuating between severe tropical storm and moderate tropical storm.

- TALIAH will remain in the heart of the ocean, far from inhabited lands.

[cycloneye]

System Information: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM TALIAH


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 991 hPa.

Position on February 14 at 10 a.m. local time: 23.9 South / 84.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2965 km in the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 4330 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.

Key messages:

- Moderate Tropical Storm TALIAH is moving over the far eastern basin and continues to show signs of increasing weakening, with collapsing convection being pushed away from the center of the system.

- TALIAH will continue to move southwestward over the next few days, with fluctuating intensity still generating strong winds until possibly next Monday, before weakening thereafter.

- TALIAH will remain far from inhabited lands for the next 5 days and therefore will not pose a threat to inhabited lands.

[StormWeather]

It looks like the JTWC is getting tired of Taliah:

Despite the tight grouping of the models up to 3 days, there is only medium confidence in the JTWC track forecast up to 3 days due to the possibility of early dissipation.
Same goes to the intensity forecast.

Though they issued many, many more discussions on Freddy back in 2023.

[cycloneye]

System Information: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM TALIAH


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 992 hPa.

Position on February 16 at 10 a.m. local time: 27.3 South / 81.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2630 km in the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 4050 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.

Key messages:

- Moderate Tropical Storm TALIAH is evolving over the extreme east of the basin and continues to show signs of weakening with convection almost absent and far from the center of the system.

- TALIAH will continue to move southwestward over the next few days, with fluctuating intensity still generating strong winds, likely until mid-next week, before weakening thereafter.

- TALIAH will remain far from inhabited lands for the next 5 days and therefore will not pose a threat to inhabited lands.