Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman57]

Anything above 60 is considered brutal heat lol

Why are you living in Katy, then? You should move to northern Alaska. Temp in SW Houston was 81 a few minutes ago but dropped to 80. Below 80 and it's a bit cool for me. I think we may be done with winter in SE TX. Can't rule out another freeze the second half of February, though.

[Stratton23]

wxman57 i still have a lot of student debt i have to pay back from college ( graduated from A&M in december 2023) , so financially i cant really afford to move right now and probably the next couple of years while i pay my loans back, plus ive lived in katy probably 90% of my life

[Ntxw]

Cedar fever is going strong this week up here in North Texas with this persistent hot wind from the south. Many are feeling it.

[Cpv17]

wxman57 i still have a lot of student debt i have to pay back from college ( graduated from A&M in december 2023) , so financially i cant really afford to move right now and probably the next couple of years while i pay my loans back, plus ive lived in katy probably 90% of my life

If you get your debt paid back that quickly you’re well ahead of the game. I know people who graduated and are still in debt 20-25 years later. And Katy isn’t a bad place to live anyway. One of the best school districts in the state and the crime rate there isn’t too bad.

[Wntrwthrguy]

I don’t think I’ve ever been more confused reading this forum (and that’s saying something lol). Some posts are stating it’s going to get very cold in a week or two while other posts are stating winter is essentially over. Is it that there is still a high degree of variability being this far out that we don’t even know if it’s going to get cold or not?

[Cpv17]

I don’t think I’ve ever been more confused reading this forum (and that’s saying something lol). Some posts are stating it’s going to get very cold in a week or two while other posts are stating winter is essentially over. Is it that there is still a high degree of variability being this far out that we don’t even know if it’s going to get cold or not?

I feel the same way as you. I’m unsure just how far S this Artic air will make it and if it does, the core of it looks to stay well N of Texas rn.

[TomballEd]

Cedar fever is going strong this week up here in North Texas with this persistent hot wind from the south. Many are feeling it.

I don't have cedar fever, when I was going to school in Austin I had allergies but they seemed unaffected by high cedar counts. Something off the Hill Country gets me, when I go back, it hits. But the cedar levels could be screaming and my allergies wouldn't be too bad.

N and NW winds in Houston get my allergies going. No allergies at all in Summer or with sustained onshore flow.

[snownado]

I don’t think I’ve ever been more confused reading this forum (and that’s saying something lol). Some posts are stating it’s going to get very cold in a week or two while other posts are stating winter is essentially over. Is it that there is still a high degree of variability being this far out that we don’t even know if it’s going to get cold or not?

When all else seems unclear, just let climo lead the way.

The average high this time of year for Dallas is around 60*F, and while the average will continue to slowly climb as the month progresses, the laws of averages dictates days upon days of 70s and 80s are unsustainable this time of year and will eventually be balanced out with an equal number of "cooler" days.

That being said, long-lasting arctic temps in a place that averages 2" of snow at most in a year also goes against the laws of averages.

So is winter over in the sense that there won't still be plenty of more days with jacket weather and maybe some nightly freezes? Very unlikely. But those who are hoping for a repeat of what we saw much of January (or worse) may also be setting themselves up for disappointment.

[wxman22]

Take a look at the temperature gradient across the state on the 18Z GFS with next weeks front. That's why there are questions as the SE ridge will be fighting back the arctic air, especially across the southern portions of the state.

[Stratton23]

Its going to get very cold, folks we just need to relax, as we are speaking the 18z GFS is already coming in colder again, and the arctic front clears the texas coast, its going to make it here, remember this is a very fluid setup that could lead to the dam bursting completely and we get the arctic motherload, or its could still be just cold but nothing crazy, the teleconnections and favorable MJO definitely argue for colder conditions than what the models show , just have to watch this closely

[snownado]

BTW, it is confirmed that DFW tied its record high of 84*F today.

[Stratton23]

Now thats what i call a blocking linkage on the GFS, -NAO block links up with the - EPO block and extends into the arctic, thats why i say we have to be careful here, that kind of a blocking pattern is certainly capable of dumping even colder air than what the models are currently showing

[wxman22]

It's a whopping 88 degrees right now! The crazy thing is that the cold front will move in around midnight, and it looks like we may be stuck in the 40's all day tomorrow per the latest mesoscale models. Talk about a roller coaster.

[orangeblood]

Vast majority of the time when you see a 500mb pattern like this one being depicted, the dense arctic cold wins out particularly in Texas during mid February. See nothing different this time around

[Wthrfan]

wxman57 i still have a lot of student debt i have to pay back from college ( graduated from A&M in december 2023) , so financially i cant really afford to move right now and probably the next couple of years while i pay my loans back, plus ive lived in katy probably 90% of my life

I pictured you being much older!

[Brent]

id say anyone who is skeptical in Texas read this. Lot of possibilities but if it's really that big like people are hinting yeah it probably won't stop at the Red River

[wxman57]

wxman57 i still have a lot of student debt i have to pay back from college ( graduated from A&M in december 2023) , so financially i cant really afford to move right now and probably the next couple of years while i pay my loans back, plus ive lived in katy probably 90% of my life

When I got out of college (A&M) in 1980, I'd lived most of my life in south Louisiana. Had to move to where the job was (Houston). Back in the 1970s, my father lived in Texas so I got in-state tuition that cost about $180 per semester ($10 per semester hour). Books were more expensive than tuition. I rented a room in a house for $100 a month. Working for a remodeling company and in the A&M weather station as a map plotter (I guess they don't have those any more) I made enough to cover all expenses. That would be a bit harder these days with tuition so expensive.

[CaptinCrunch]

While is will be chilly next week, current forecast highs are upper 40s to mid 50s, lows in the low 30s. Again that is the current projected temps.

I'm skeptical that the front makes it past central TX. I think NTX will see some low 40s for highs and some upper 20s for lows. Winter isn't over for NTX, at least not till mid March, then Spring kicks in.

[Stratton23]

, interesting that Bastardi alluded to a December 1983 analogy for this current setup around Valentines

[Ralph's Weather]

While is will be chilly next week, current forecast highs are upper 40s to mid 50s, lows in the low 30s. Again that is the current projected temps.

I'm skeptical that the front makes it past central TX. I think NTX will see some low 40s for highs and some upper 20s for lows. Winter isn't over for NTX, at least not till mid March, then Spring kicks in.

This is the kind of setup that drives the cold all the way deep into Mexico. This will struggle to reach the Deep South but but each successive front will drive the cold through Texas and after Valentine's it will drive into Mexico. The storm track will not be so suppressed like January though with the track being more like coastal TX through LA and into W TN. East of that line will not see much cold. This set up has staying power with the severe blocking across the polar regions. Even with this mild start Feb likely will be another below average month for TX.