SIO: Post-Tropical - FAIDA

[cycloneye]

SH, 93, 2025012318, , BEST, 0, 110S, 812E, 15, 1005, DB

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 932025.dat

[cycloneye]

On the east and then the center of the basin, a tropical storm could form in the next 5 days within the Monsoon Trough. The risk of reaching the baptism stage becomes moderate (30-60%) from Sunday 26 then strong Tuesday 28 (risk greater than 60%). Its subsequent trajectory, rather directed towards the west to southwest, is still very uncertain in detail. It is therefore still too early to anticipate possible threats to the islands of the basin.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE number 7


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.

Position on January 28 at 4 p.m. local time: 11.9 South / 75.9 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2370 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 3340 km to sector: EAST

Movement: SOUTH, at 7 km/h.


System Information:

Tropical disturbance 07-20242025 is located 600 km southeast of Diego-Garcia. This system is expected to move southwest while intensifying to tropical storm status over the next 48 hours. The system will remain away from inhabited land until Friday. Beyond that, a threat is possible for the Mascarenes (Rodrigues, Mauritius, Reunion), however given the high uncertainty in the trajectory forecast at these deadlines, it is still too early to predict possible impacts on inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 7


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1000 hPa.

Position on January 30 at 04:00 local time: 16.2 South / 71.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1765 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2890 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 30 km/h.


System Information:

- Tropical disturbance 07-20242025 is still evolving in the center of the basin more than 650 km northeast of Rodrigues.


- This system is forecast to move southwest and could intensify to tropical storm status by Friday. This weekend, 07 could gradually weaken.

- The system will remain away from inhabited land until Friday. Beyond that, a threat is possible for the Mascarenes (Rodrigues, Mauritius, Reunion), however given the high uncertainty in the trajectory and intensity forecast at these deadlines, it is still too early to predict possible impacts on inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 7


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 998 hPa.

Position on January 31 at 04:00 local time: 16.1 South / 66.9 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1295 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2370 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 26 km/h.


System Information:

- In recent times, system 07, still analyzed as a tropical depression, seems to have resumed a phase of development. It continues to move rapidly towards the west and is located a little over 500km northeast of Rodrigues.

- Despite conditions that are not favorable for its intensification, the system could nevertheless reach tropical storm status over the next 24 hours, before weakening again as it moves near the north of the Mascarene Islands this weekend. In the longer term, further intensification is possible.

- The system should move north of Rodrigues today without causing any significant deterioration in the weather. Beyond that, an influence on the sensitive weather of Reunion and Mauritius is possible this weekend. According to the preferred scenario, at present, the extent of the deterioration should remain limited. However, given the uncertainty in the forecast of trajectory and intensity at these deadlines, other scenarios are not yet excluded. It is therefore advisable to keep informed of the latest forecasts.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 7


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 998 hPa.

Position on February 1 at 4 p.m. local time: 17.5 South / 60.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 660 km to the sector: NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1760 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 20 km/h.


System Information:

- Tropical depression No. 07 is located approximately 450 km northeast of Mauritius and is moving west-southwest.

- In the coming hours, the system is expected to remain at the tropical depression stage due to an unfavourable atmospheric environment that is preventing it from intensifying. It is expected to continue on a west to west-southwest trajectory and circulate near the northern Mascarene Islands this Sunday. Between Monday and Tuesday, intensification into a tropical storm is possible as it approaches Madagascar on a northwesterly trajectory. The system could then re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel and intensify again in the middle or end of next week.

- The system will pass south of Saint Brandon this Saturday evening and then north of Mauritius on Sunday. Heavy rains are expected in Saint Brandon, while a more moderate influence is expected in Mauritius. Residents are advised to follow the evolution of the forecast through their national weather service.

- In Reunion, a change in the weather is expected on Sunday as the system is expected to pass more than 250 km to the north at the end of the day or the following night. This will result in stronger winds mainly in the northern and southern regions as well as humid and rainy weather in the eastern and south-eastern regions on Sunday and Monday. The full forecast for the island can be found on the departmental forecast bulletin available here: https://meteofrance.re/fr

- Landfall is expected on the east coast of Madagascar early Tuesday, probably in the north of the province of Toamasina. A deterioration of conditions is expected from Monday evening or the following night with strong winds and heavy rains. The location of the landfall and the intensity of the system are still uncertain, but residents are advised to keep informed of the evolution of the system.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE number 7


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.

Position on February 2 at 10 a.m. local time: 19.4 South / 57.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 220 km to the sector: NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1460 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 26 km/h.


System Information:

- The system slowly weakened during the night. As a result, it was temporarily downgraded to Tropical Disturbance status.

- The system is currently located just under 100 km northwest of Mauritius and has been moving southwest over the past few hours, accelerating.

- During the day, the system should be able to intensify at the margin and thus return to the stage of tropical depression. It is expected to straighten its course towards the west-northwest well to the north of the island of La Réunion. From Monday, an intensification up to the stage of storm is expected as it approaches the coast of Madagascar on a trajectory oriented northwest. After passing over the Malagasy lands for more than 24 hours, the much weakened system could then re-emerge in the Mozambique Channel during the day on Wednesday and gradually intensify again until the end of next week, while approaching Mozambique.

- The system is moving away to the northwest of Mauritius this Sunday and the weather influence will remain marginal except for the passage of a few squalls behind the system. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.

- In Reunion, a change in the weather is expected this Sunday as the system is expected to transit more than 200 km to the north at the end of the day or the following night. This will result in stronger winds in the northern, southern and south-eastern regions mainly as well as humid and unstable weather in the northern, eastern and south-eastern regions on Sunday, until Monday morning. The full forecast for the island can be found on the departmental forecast bulletin available here: https://meteofrance.re/fr

- A landfall is expected on the east coast of Madagascar early Tuesday, probably in the province of Toamasina, between the Masoala peninsula and Vatomandry. A deterioration of conditions is expected from Monday evening or the following night. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected in the province of Toamasina. Finally, the sea state may become dangerous on the coast of the province of Toamasina as the system approaches. The area of ​​landfall and the intensity of the system are still uncertain; residents are therefore advised to keep themselves informed of the evolution of the system.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 7


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 998 hPa.

Position on February 2 at 4 p.m. local time: 19.4 South / 55.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 170 km to the sector: NORTH

Distance from Mayotte: 1350 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 20 km/h.


System Information:

- After a temporary weakening phase, the low pressure system n°07-20242025 gradually reconsolidated this afternoon, gaining in intensity, to return to the stage of Tropical Depression.

- Tropical Depression No. 07-20242025 moved rapidly towards the west-southwest during the day and is currently located just under 200 km north of Reunion Island.

- This system is expected to gradually straighten its course towards the west-northwest over the next 2 days towards Madagascar. During the next night an intensification of the vortex remains possible but should remain more noticeable during the day on Monday and until Tuesday, until the minimal stage of moderate tropical storm. After passing over the Malagasy lands for more than 24 hours, the much weakened system could then re-emerge in the Mozambique Channel during the day on Wednesday and gradually intensify again until the end of next week, while approaching Mozambique.

- The system is moving away for a long time to the northwest of Mauritius and its influence will remain marginal for the sister island except for the passage of a few residual grains behind it. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.

- In Reunion Island, the passage of the Tropical Depression to the north of Reunion Island has generated a strengthening of the wind, as well as humid and unstable conditions that should last until Monday morning. The complete forecasts for Reunion Island can be found on the departmental forecast bulletin available here: https://meteofrance.re/fr

- Landfall is expected on the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning, probably in the province of Toamasina, between the Masoala Peninsula and the town of Vatomandry. Conditions are expected to deteriorate from Monday evening or even during the following night. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected in the province of Toamasina and the Masoala Peninsula. The area of ​​landfall and the intensity of the system are still uncertain; residents are therefore advised to keep themselves informed of the system's development.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 7


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 998 hPa.

Position on February 2 at 10 p.m. local time: 18.9 South / 54.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 255 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1170 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 22 km/h.


System Information:

- Tropical Depression No. 07-20242025 has resumed its movement towards the west-northwest and is located a little over 250 km northwest of Reunion Island. It is accompanied by very strong thunderstorm activity but which is not well organized for the moment, around a rather poorly defined low pressure minimum.

- The system will continue this movement by Tuesday, gradually approaching the coast of Madagascar while probably intensifying to the stage of a moderate tropical storm. After passing over the Malagasy lands for more than 24 hours, the much weakened system could then re-emerge in the Mozambique Channel during the day on Wednesday and gradually intensify again until the end of next week, while approaching Mozambique.

- In Reunion, the passage of the system off the coast of Reunion generated a strengthening of the wind, as well as humid and unstable conditions that should last until Monday morning. The complete forecasts can be found on the departmental forecast bulletin available here: https://meteofrance.re/fr

- Landfall is expected on the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning, probably in the province of Toamasina, between the Masoala peninsula and the town of Vatomandry. Conditions are expected to deteriorate from Monday evening or even during the following night. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected in the province of Toamasina as well as on the northwest coast between the provinces of Antsiranana and Mahajanga. The area of ​​landfall and the intensity of the system are still uncertain; residents are therefore advised to keep themselves informed of the system's development.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 7


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 998 hPa.

Position on February 3 at 04:00 local time: 18.2 South / 53.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 385 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1030 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.


System Information:

- Tropical Depression No. 07-20242025 continues its movement towards the west-northwest and is located more than 350 km northwest of Reunion Island and approximately 250 km from the Malagasy coast.

- The system is expected to intensify into a tropical storm between this Monday and its landfall on Madagascar expected around Tuesday morning. After passing over the Malagasy landmass for about 24 hours, the weakened system could then emerge weakened in the Mozambique Channel during the day on Wednesday, before gradually intensifying again until the end of next week, while approaching Mozambique.

- In Reunion, conditions will slowly improve this Monday as the system moves away. The full forecast can be found on the departmental forecast bulletin available here: https://meteofrance.re/fr

- Landfall is expected on the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning, probably in the province of Toamasina, between the Masoala Peninsula and the town of Vatomandry. Conditions are expected to deteriorate from Monday evening through Tuesday. Strong winds and heavy rain are expected in the province of Toamasina and on the northwest coast between the provinces of Antsiranana and Mahajanga. Dangerous seas are possible near the impact area. The location of landfall and the intensity of the system are still uncertain; residents are therefore advised to keep themselves informed of the system's development.

[cycloneye]

Hello Faida.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 7

(FAIDA)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 3 at 10 a.m. local time: 18.3 South / 51.9 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 460 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 940 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.


System Information:

- At 0500UTC, the system 07-20242025 was named Faida by the Madagascar meteorological service. The moderate tropical storm is located at 06UTC a little over 250km from the eastern coast of Madagascar and is approaching it following a westward trajectory.

- Faida is expected to intensify steadily this Monday before making landfall on Madagascar on Tuesday morning, probably in the province of Toamasina, between the Masoala peninsula and the town of Vatomandry.

- A deterioration of conditions is expected from Monday evening until Tuesday. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected in the province of Toamasina. Dangerous seas are possible near the impact zone. The location of the landfall and the intensity of the system are still uncertain; residents are therefore advised to keep themselves informed of the evolution of the system.

- Indirectly linked to the system, a monsoon flow present on the north of the Mozambique Channel will bring degraded weather on the west coasts of the provinces of Antsiranana and Mahajanga, from Wednesday.

- After passing over the Malagasy lands for around 24 hours, the weakened system could then re-emerge in the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday, before gradually intensifying again until the end of next week, while moving closer to Mozambique.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 7

(FAIDA)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 998 hPa.

Position on February 3 at 4 p.m. local time: 18.0 South / 51.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 495 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 900 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 11 km/h.


System Information:

- Moderate tropical storm Faida is already showing weaknesses, still hampered by dry air present in the eastern semicircle of the system. Although it has slowed down, it continues its trajectory towards the west towards Madagascar.

- Over the next few hours, Faida is expected to intensify steadily before making landfall on Madagascar on Tuesday morning, likely near the province of Toamasina, between the Masoala Peninsula and the town of Vatomandry.

- A deterioration of conditions is beginning to affect the Malagasy coast and this until Tuesday. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected in the province of Toamasina in the evening and tonight. Dangerous seas are possible near the impact zone, between the city of Toamasina and Sainte-Marie Island. Residents are therefore invited to keep informed of the evolution of the system.

- Indirectly linked to the system, a monsoon flow present on the north of the Mozambique Channel will bring degraded weather on the west coasts of the provinces of Antsiranana and Mahajanga, from Wednesday.

- After passing over the Malagasy lands for around 24 hours, the weakened system could then re-emerge in the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday, before gradually intensifying again until the end of next week, while moving closer to Mozambique.

Here are the expected in

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 7

(FAIDA)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.

Position on February 3 at 10 p.m. local time: 19.1 South / 51.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 455 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 970 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.


System Information:

- Moderate tropical storm Faida weakened during the day, due to a strong intrusion of dry air into it, propagated by strong upper-level shear. Thus the system was downgraded to the stage of Tropical Depression, at the gates of Madagascar.

- In the last few hours, it has curved its trajectory to the south-southwest, slowing down its course, but FAIDA could well head back up towards the north-northwest towards Madagascar.

- Over the next few hours, Faida should be able to intensify marginally before making landfall on Madagascar on Tuesday morning, probably in the province of Toamasina, between the Masoala peninsula and the town of Vatomandry.

- A deterioration of conditions is beginning to affect the Malagasy coast and this until Tuesday. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected in the province of Toamasina in the evening and tonight. Dangerous seas are possible near the impact zone, between the city of Toamasina and Sainte-Marie Island. Residents are therefore invited to keep informed of the evolution of the system.

- After passing over Madagascar for around 24 hours, the weakened system could then re-emerge in the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday, before gradually intensifying again until the end of next week, while moving closer to Mozambique.

[cycloneye]

DISRUPTED ZONE number 7

(FAIDA)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1003 hPa.

Position on February 4 at 04:00 local time: 18.6 South / 51.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 510 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 900 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 9 km/h.


System Information:

- FAIDA remains in the grip of unfavourable environmental conditions for intensification before its landfall on Madagascar; in view of the evolution of its cloud configuration during the night it has therefore been downgraded to Disturbed Zone.

- Since Monday evening, FAIDA has continued on a trajectory towards the west at a fairly slow pace. The system should continue on Tuesday morning, before gradually turning west-northwest for the final approach to the province of Toamasina (Madagascar) during the afternoon, in the vicinity of the city of Toamasina. After passing over the Malagasy lands for a little over 24 hours, the much weakened system could then re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel during the day on Wednesday, before slowly intensifying again until the end of next week, while approaching Mozambique.

- FAIDA is expected to land in a weakened state this Tuesday, with no real potential for intensification. However, due to the acceleration of winds at the coast, the system is still generating strong winds punctually and locally on the maritime fringe of the province of TOAMASINA.

- A deterioration of weather conditions is underway in the province of TOAMASINA, extending to the province of Antananarivo until the end of the day on Tuesday. Locally and occasionally strong winds on the coast and heavy rains are expected in the province of TOAMASINA this Tuesday. Residents are therefore invited to keep themselves informed of the evolution of the system.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

DISRUPTED ZONE number 7

(FAIDA)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1004 hPa.

Position on February 4 at 10 a.m. local time: 19.3 South / 50.3 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 555 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 900 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 7 km/h.


System Information:

- FAIDA under the influence of an unfavorable environment has weakened significantly in the last hours. According to the latest trends, it should dissipate in the next 24 hours near the Malagasy coast. The scenario of a redevelopment in the Mozambique Channel seems unlikely at present, and could ultimately be associated with a new system.

- Heavy rains are still temporarily possible on the coast of the province of TOAMASINA and in the interior of the provinces of TOAMASINA and ANTANANARIVO.

- This is the last forecast bulletin for FAIDA unless there is any re-intensification.