Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
521 AM AST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Variable weather will persist during the next several days with
passing showers moving from time to time over windward areas.
Localized afternoon convection is possible across the interior to
W-SW PR. Small craft operators should take action to avoid hazardous
seas caused by breezy conditions, which will continue through the
week and into the weekend. Life-threatening rip currents are
possible, especially along northwestern, northern and eastern
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

East-northeast winds steered shower activity into mainly northern
and eastern Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra and St. Thomas, during
the overnight hours. From midnight to 4 AM AST, radar estimated
precipitation indicated areas with above 0.2 inches of rainfall over
the above mentioned areas. In the same time frame, areas above 0.3
inches were observed over northwestern and eastern Puerto Rico. The
municipalities of Quebradillas (0.40 in), Camuy (0.49 in) and
Fajardo (0.64 in) saw the highest radar estimated rainfall from
midnight to 4 AM AST. Reported minimum temperatures have been in the
low to mid 60s at higher elevations of Puerto Rico and in the low to
mid 70s at lower elevations of the islands.

Satellite-derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate a
surface perturbation over Puerto Rico, with PWAT values ranging from
1.4 to 1.5 in over land, at normal to above normal levels. Current
model guidance suggest this patch of moisture gradually moving west
and out of the area today. However, during the morning hours, the
advective pattern will continue to affect windward areas of the
islands as showers move in. A mid-level trough continues to erode
the mid level ridge, helping to increase instability and moisture.
During the afternoon hours, convective showers will result in
showers over the interior to west-southwest Puerto Rico. The patch
of moisture should be over the Mona Passage by tonight, with drier
air elsewhere, with PWAT values at below to around 1.20 inches.
Additional patches of moisture (with advective showers) will move
into the area during the rest of the period, especially during the
overnight to morning hours, while afternoon convection affects
western Puerto Rico. Although, ENE winds are forecast to be lighter
today than during the past few days by tonight into Thursday, a
surface high will move off the eastern U.S. coast will ultimately
promote breezy conditions through the rest of the workweek. 925mb
temperatures will remain near normal. Highs can reach the low to mid
80s (locally higher especially in W-SW-S PR) across lower elevations
of the islands. Lows can reach around the low 60s at higher
elevations of Puerto Rico, and from the low to mid 70s across lower
elevation of the islands. Low concentrations of Saharan Dust will
also be present today. Patchy fog can also be present during the
overnight to early morning hours across sectors of interior Puerto
Rico.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

A surface high pressure system will be centered northeast of the
area during the weekend, but will extend north of the area early
next week. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient, with breezy
east-northeasterly winds during the weekend, and breezy to locally
windy conditions but with a more easterly component during the first
half of next week. These winds will keep an advective pattern with
patches of moisture reaching our area from time to time, increasing
the frequency of passing showers across the windward sections of the
islands. A series of weak mid to upper level troughs will maintain
some instability aloft during the weekend, allowing the moisture
layer to extend from the surface up to just under 500mb.
Precipitable Water (PWAT) values will fluctuate between 1.1 and 1.6
inches during the weekend, with the passage of the moisture patches.
This will help boost the rainfall pattern during the afternoons,
with an increase in convective activity.

Relatively drier conditions will follow early next week as a mid
level ridge builds just north of our area. However, patches of
moisture will continue to stream across the area from time to time.
Precipitable Water (PWAT) will range from 1.1 to 1.4. Temperatures
will continue near seasonal levels during the period with highs
ranging from the low to mid 80s across lower elevations (locally
higher over W-SW-S PR). Minimum temperatures can reach the upper 50s
to 60s across higher elevations, and from the low to mid 70s across
lower elevation of the islands. Patchy fog are possible during the
overnight to early morning hours across the interior valleys of
Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions during the period. However, SCT SHRA steered
by E-NE winds will mainly affect northern and eastern terminals
during the morning hours, which can lead to brief MVFR conditions.
VCSH can also affect TJPS btw 05/16-22Z. SFC winds will be from the
E-NE up to around 15 kts, with higher gusts, after 05/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic migrating eastward,
will maintain moderate to fresh east-northeast winds. As this high
builds, winds will become stronger by the latter part of the workweek
and the upcoming weekend. As a result,choppy seas and hazardous
conditions for small crafts are expected across the offshore
Atlantic, while choppy seas will persist elsewhere.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A moderate rip current risk will continue for the rest of the week
in most exposed beaches. Specific north-facing beaches, and other
less sheltered coastal areas may present a higher danger to
swimmers and beachgoers. It is possible that the rip current risk
increases to high during the weekend. Beachgoers must stay alert
and avoid dangerous waters. For more information please refer to
the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST Thu Feb 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unsettled weather will continue in the coming days, with
intermittent passing showers primarily impacting windward areas
overnight and early in the morning. Additionally, localized
afternoon convection is possible over the interior to west-
southwestern sections of Puerto Rico.

* Breezy to windy conditions will spread across the local islands,
impacting outdoor activities and operations. Stay prepared and
adjust plans accordingly.

* Small craft operators should take action to avoid hazardous seas
caused by breezy to windy conditions, which will continue through
the weekend.

* Life-threatening rip currents are possible today, particularly
along northern and southeastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers should exercise caution and
avoid risky waters, as rip currents may be especially dangerous in
these areas.

* Low humidity, breezy to locally windy conditions, drying soils,
and available fuels will create favorable conditions for fire
spread today. Take precautions to minimize fire risks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

East-northeast winds steered shower activity into mainly northern
and eastern Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, Vieques and St. Croix,
during the overnight hours. Reported minimum temperatures have been
in the low to mid 60s at higher elevations of Puerto Rico, and over
southwestern PR, and in the low to mid 70s at lower elevations of
the islands.

A surface high pressure will continue to move into the western
Atlantic and will tighten the pressure gradient and bring breezy to
windy ENE winds across the northeastern Caribbean during most of the
short term period. Satellite-derived precipitable water (PWAT)
indicate a patch of moisture mainly over the eastern region, with
PWAT values ranging from 1.39 to 1.51 in over land, at normal to
above normal levels. PWAT values were observed to gradually decrease
towards the W-SW quadrant of Puerto Rico, where PWAT decreased to
around 1.16 in. Current model guidance indicates that this patch of
moisture will gradually move westward and out of the area while a
patch of drier air with values at or less than an inch moves in
during the morning to afternoon hours. This drier air will limit the
advective shower pattern steered by ENE winds that will start off
the morning. During the afternoon hours, afternoon convection can
result in showers over the interior to west-southwest Puerto Rico,
although these will also be limited by the drier air filtering into
the region. Tomorrow night and into the overnight hours on Friday,
another patch of moisture will move in from the northeast, once
again increasing passing shower activity over windward areas.
Additional patches of moisture that will increase shower coverage
will move in during Friday morning (a low level perturbation),
Friday night into the overnight hours on Saturday, and then on
Saturday night. Afternoon convection will continue to affect western
Puerto Rico. Minor concentrations of Saharan Dust will also be
present during the period. Patchy fog can also be present during the
overnight to early morning hours across sectors of interior Puerto
Rico. Seasonal temperatures will continue under the ENE flow.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

A surface high pressure system will be centered northeast of the
Caribbean during the weekend, but it will extend north of the area
early next workweek. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient,
with breezy east to east-northeasterly winds early next week, and
breezy to locally windy conditions but with a more easterly
component during most of the next workweek. These winds will keep an
advective pattern with patches of moisture reaching our area from
time to time, increasing the frequency of passing showers across the
windward sections of the islands. A weak mid to upper level trough
will cross the area on Sunday, maintaining some instability aloft.
Depending on the timing of the patches of moisture, this could help
boost the local rainfall pattern, with a slight increase in
convective activity during the afternoon.

Precipitable Water (PWAT) values will fluctuate between 1.1 and 1.4
inches during the long term period, which is normal to slightly
below normal for this time of the year. Drier air is expected in the
mid levels of the atmosphere during the next workweek, due to a
mid level ridge building just north of our area. This should
maintain mainly stable conditions with moisture trapped in the low
levels of the atmosphere, with the occasional patches of moisture
reaching our area.

Temperatures will continue near seasonal levels during the period
with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s across lower elevations
(locally higher over W-SW-S PR). Minimum temperatures will stay in
the 60s across higher elevations, and from the low to mid 70s across
lower elevation of the islands. Patchy fog are possible during the
overnight to early morning hours across the interior valleys of
Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions during the period. VCSH and possibly SHRA will
affect TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX during the morning hours, gradually
decreasing in coverage. ENE winds increasing to 15-20 kts, with
gusts at 20-30 kts, after 06/14Z. VCSH can also affect TJPS btw
06/16-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic migrating eastward,
will maintain moderate to fresh east-northeast winds. As this high
builds, winds will become stronger by the latter part of the workweek
and the upcoming weekend. As a result, choppy seas and hazardous
conditions for small crafts are expected across the offshore
Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Mona and Anegada Passages, while
choppy seas will persist elsewhere.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A moderate rip current risk will continue today and tomorrow in
most exposed beaches. Specific north-facing beaches, and other
less sheltered coastal areas may present a higher danger to
swimmers and beachgoers. High rip current risk is possible this
weekend. Beachgoers must stay alert and avoid dangerous waters.
For more information please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast
(SRFSJU).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Favorable conditions for fire spread are expected, particularly
across the southern coastal plains, southern hills, and western
Puerto Rico. Breezy east-northeasterly winds (15-20 mph with
stronger gusts) will bring drier air, lowering humidity to the low-
40s. Drying soils, as indicated by KBDI values, along with available
fuels, support the potential for fire spread. These conditions
result in an elevated fire danger threat, with a Fire Danger
Statement (RFDSJU) in effect for these areas.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 AM AST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Variable weather will continue this weekend, with intermittent
passing showers mainly in the windward areas overnight and early
in the morning. Additionally, localized afternoon convection is
possible over the interior to west-southwestern sections of
Puerto Rico.

* Breezy conditions will continue across the local islands,
impacting outdoor activities and operations. Stay prepared and
adjust plans accordingly.

* Small craft operators should avoid hazardous seas caused by
winds, which will continue into the weekend.

* Life-threatening rip currents are possible today and into the weekend
across most of the beaches in Puerto Rico (including Vieques
and Culebra) and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers should
exercise caution and avoid risky waters, as rip currents may be
especially dangerous in these areas.

* Low humidity, breezy conditions, drying soils, and available
fuels will create favorable conditions for fire spread today.
Take precautions to minimize fire risks.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

During the overnight hours, breezy east-northeast winds steered
shower activity over the region. Radar estimated accumulations were
present over northern, eastern, and interior Puerto Rico, as well as
over Vieques, Culebra, St. John, St. Thomas and southern St. Croix.
Eastern interior saw the highest radar estimated accumulations,
around 0.4 to 0.5 inches. Reported lows have been in the low to mid
60s at higher elevations of Puerto Rico, and over southwestern PR,
and in the low to mid 70s at lower elevations of the islands. Patchy
fog was present during the overnight hours over interior and
southwest Puerto Rico, and should continue into the early morning
hours.

A surface high pressure over the western to central Atlantic will
continue to move eastward into the north-central Atlantic by
tomorrow, Saturday. This will continue to tighten the pressure
gradient and result in breezy to windy ENE winds across the
northeastern Caribbean during most of the short term period.
Seasonal temperatures will continue under the ENE flow. In the upper
levels, a ridge will promote overall stable conditions aloft and a
weak Saharan Air Layer will continue to provide generally drier air
in the low to mid-levels. These will serve to limit shower activity.
Satellite-derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate a patch
of moisture mostly northwest of Puerto Rico. Over the USVI, Vieques,
and Culebra, PWAT values are around an inch. At Puerto Rico, values
increase from 1.1 in, over south and east Puerto Rico, to 1.26 in
over northern Puerto Rico. An advective weather pattern will
continue into the early morning hours over windward sectors,
tappered off by a patch of drier air that is currently approaching.
A variable weather pattern under the ENE flow is expected to prevail
each day with showers moving mainly over the USVI, Vieques, Culebra
and the east/northern sections of PR during the night and early
morning hours. During the afternoon hours, convection can result in
showers over the interior to west-southwest Puerto Rico. Weak
patches of moisture, trade wind perturbations, will reach the
islands from time to time, enhancing the weather pattern. Current
model guidance, has them arriving mainly during the night to early
morning hours each day. A weak upper level trough will promote
additional instability aloft, Saturday into Sunday, also enhancing
the weather pattern. Patchy fog will also be present during the
overnight to early morning hours, mainly over sectors of interior
Puerto Rico.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

A surface high pressure system extending across the North Atlantic,
along latitudes 25-30N, will maintain a tight pressure gradient
across the islands during the workweek. This will keep breezy to
locally windy east to east-northeasterly winds throughout the week.
These winds will keep an advective pattern with patches of moisture
reaching our area from time to time, increasing the frequency of
passing showers across the windward sections of the islands.

Precipitable Water (PWAT) values will fluctuate between 1.1 and 1.4
inches during the long term period, which is normal to slightly
below normal for this time of the year. Dry air will continue in the
mid levels of the atmosphere due to a mid level ridge building just
north of our area. This will maintain mainly stable conditions most
of the week, with moisture trapped in the low levels of the
atmosphere due to the occasional patches of moisture reaching the
islands. Therefore, no significant flood threat is expected. By
Friday of next week, a mid to upper level shortwave trough could
start to erode the mid-level ridge, increasing instability aloft
across the region. This could help boost the local rainfall pattern
by late next week. However, dry air in the mid levels will
still limit deep convective development.

Temperatures will continue near seasonal levels during the period
with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s across lower elevations
(locally higher over western/southwestern/southern Puerto Rico).
Minimum temperatures will stay in the 60s across higher elevations,
and from the low to mid 70s across lower elevation of the islands.
Patchy fog will continue to be possible during the overnight to
early morning hours across the interior valleys of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions expected. VCSH, and possibly SHRA, will affect
TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX during the morning hours, gradually decreasing
in coverage. ENE at 15-20 kts, with gusts at 20-30 kts, after
07/13Z. VCSH can also affect TJPS btw 07/16-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A building surface high pressure over the western Atlantic migrating
eastward, will maintain moderate to fresh east-northeast winds. These
breezy conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend. As a
result, choppy seas and hazardous conditions for small crafts are
expected across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters and local
passages, while choppy seas will persist elsewhere.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

For today, there is a moderate risk of rip currents across most of
the beaches in Puerto Rico (including Vieques and Culebra) and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Similar conditions are expected to
continue into the weekend. This means that life-threatening rip
currents are possible in the surf zone and beachgoers must stay
alert and be careful.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Favorable conditions for fire spread will persist today,
particularly across the southern coastal plains, southern hills,
and western Puerto Rico. Breezy east-northeasterly winds (15-20
mph with stronger gusts) are expected, with a dry slot moving in
today during peak hours that will lower humidity to the low-40s.
Drying soils, as indicated by KBDI values, along with available
fuels, support the potential for fire spread. These conditions
result in an elevated fire danger threat, with a Fire Danger
Statement (RFDSJU) in effect for these areas.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
453 AM AST Sat Feb 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Variable weather conditions will continue throughout the weekend across
the local islands. Breezy to locally windy conditions will also
persist. Hazardous marine conditions will persist due to wind-
driven seas creating choppy conditions across most exposed waters
and local passages. For the next few days, dry and breezy
conditions in combination with low humidity will result in
favorable conditions for fire spread today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

A variable weather pattern prevailed across the region, bringing
periods of shower activity that mainly affected the north and
northeastern parts of Puerto Rico. Breezy conditions accompanied the
passing showers, under a steady 15-20 kt east-northeast wind flow.
Despite the occasional rainfall, temperatures remained seasonable,
with overnight lows ranging from the low to mid-70s across coastal
and lower elevation areas, while higher elevations experienced
cooler conditions, with temperatures dipping into the low 60s.

A mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the region through the
weekend, with a brief weakening expected from tonight into Sunday
due to a frontal boundary well north of the region moving eastward
into the northeastern Atlantic. This scenario will maintain moderate
to fresh east-northeast winds, promoting breezy conditions with
sustained winds in the range of 15 to 20 mph and gusty winds up to
30 mph. Given the expected conditions, the sea breeze influence will
not be significant. In terms of moisture levels, low-level moisture
will be the main factor for shower development, with PWAT values
ranging between 1.2 to 1.4 inches. As a result, showery conditions
will persist across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
However, these fast-moving showers are not expected to cause
significant flooding. The most frequent rainfall activity will favor
the north-central, northeast, and east-coastal regions of Puerto
Rico, though the probability of exceeding 0.5 inches of daily
accumulation remains low at around 30%.

Similar weather conditions are expected on Monday, with an east-
northeast flow continuing across the islands due to the influence of
a broad surface high-pressure system extending from the western
Atlantic into the central Atlantic. Therefore, a similar weather
pattern will persist, with showers likely during the early morning
and evening hours.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

A surface high pressure extending across the northern Atlantic, will
be the most dominant feature for the long term period. The presence
of the surface high will maintain a tight pressure gradient,
therefore, promoting breezy to windy conditions through the end of
the period. Windy conditions, will promote fast moving patches of
moisture reaching the islands, resulting in quick passing showers
mainly across eastern and northern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

Precipitable water content values are expected to remain slightly
below normal in the range between 1.3 and 1.5 inches. A mid-level
ridge will maintain stable and dry conditions most of the week. At
this moment, no significant shower activity is anticipated. By the
end of the period into the weekend, a mid-to-upper level trough will
increase instability across the area. Under this pattern, and
increase in rainfall activity is likely over the islands. Seasonal
temperatures will remain across the region with highs in the low to
mid 80s along the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. In addition, lows will remain in the range from
the low to mid 70s across the coastal areas, and from the low to mid
60s in the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind -RA to SHRA will
continue to move at times across east located terminals through
during the period. Winds will continue from the ENE at 10 knots or
less, increasing 15-20 kt aft 08/13Z across all sites.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
moderate to fresh east to northeast winds. This conditions will
persist over the next few days resulting in choppy seas across most
local waters and hazardous conditions for small craft, particularly
across the offshore Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

There is a moderate risk of rip currents across most beaches in
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some localized exposed
beaches along the north and northeast coasts may present a higher
threat due to bathymetric features or jetties along the shore.
Beachgoers are urged to visit designated swimming areas along the
exposed northern coasts of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
439 AM AST Sun Feb 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

An increase in fast moving passing showers is expected today
due to a patch of moisture moving across the region today.
Overall, variable weather conditions will continue over the week
with breezy to locally windy east to northeast winds. Wind- driven
seas will result in choppy seas and hazardous marine conditions
across the local waters and passages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

A showery weather pattern persisted overnight across the northern
and eastern halves of Puerto Rico. Some of these showers were strong
at times, but rainfall accumulations ranged from a quarter to half
an inch in some areas. Winds were out of the northeast at 10 to 15
mph near coastal regions, with higher gusts. The Luis Munoz Marin
International Airport and Cyril E. King International Airport
weather stations reported wind gusts of 31 and 35 mph, respectively,
during the night hours. Temperatures dropped to the low to mid-60s
in the mountains and the mid to upper 70s at lower elevations.

Breezy conditions will persist across the northeastern Caribbean due
to a building surface high pressure over the western Atlantic. This
high will maintain surface winds from the east-northeast today and
Monday, shifting more from the east on Tuesday, with speeds ranging
from 17 to 25 mph and higher gusts. Some troughing at mid-levels is
enhancing shower development; however, this feature will continue to
weaken as a weak mid-level ridge builds from the west and settles
over the forecast area. This ridge will promote dry air intrusion at
mid-levels. Through early this week, strong trade winds will carry
patches of moisture across the region, leading to periods of passing
showers mainly across the eastern and northern municipalities of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These patches of moisture
are expected to remain shallow but may occasionally reach up to the
600 mb level. As a result, rainfall accumulations are not expected
to be significant enough to cause flooding; however, wet roads and
ponding of water may occur in areas with poor drainage or low
elevation.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

A surface high pressure system located over the central Atlantic
will continue to maintain a tight pressure gradient across the
region. As a result, breezy to locally windy easterly winds will
prevail throughout much of the week. By the upcoming weekend, winds
are expected to shift from the northeast as the surface high
migrates eastwards. Under this pattern, patches of moisture will
continue to move into the region promoting passing showers across
the windward portions of the islands.

Precipitable water content values are expected to fluctuate between
1.10 and 1.50 inches during the long-period, suggesting values at
normal to slightly below normal for this time of the year. The
current forecast continues on track with the positioning of a
mid- level ridge north of the area. Stable and dry conditions
aloft, will inhibit strong convective activity across the area. By
the end of the period into the weekend, a mid-to-upper level
trough will increase instability across the area and the potential
to observe frequent showers over the islands. Seasonal
temperatures will remain across the region with highs in the low
to mid 80s along the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR cond expected durg prd. Occasional patches of SCT- BKN
low level cld lyrs nr FL025...FL050...FL080 with wdly SCT SHRA to
affect the regional waters and flying area btw PR and the USVI.
Brief periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are possible. Wnds
from the ENE at 18-26 kt with higher gusts blo FL050.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
moderate to fresh east to northeast winds. These conditions will
persist over the next few days resulting in choppy seas across most
local waters and hazardous conditions for small craft, particularly
across the offshore Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the exposed beaches
of all islands (except the southern coast of Puerto Rico, where
the risk is low). Life- threatening rip currents are possible in
the surf zone and beachgoers must stay alert and be careful.
Similar conditions are expected to continue through the first half
of the workweek, and a high risk is possible to return by the end
of the week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
401 AM AST Mon Feb 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Variable weather will continue, with trade wind showers mainly
affecting windward areas and localized afternoon convection
possible in western Puerto Rico.
* Breezy conditions will persist, becoming windy by Tuesday,
impacting outdoor activities. Adjust plans accordingly.
* Small craft operators should be cautious of hazardous seas through
the workweek.
* Life-threatening rip currents are possible today, especially along
northern and southeastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

The weather pattern has remained steady, with radar and satellite
imagery showing fast-moving trade wind showers impacting northern
and eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the US Virgin
Islands, driven by breezy east-northeasterly trade winds. Radar-
estimated rainfall has shown up to half an inch of rain in localized
areas of northern and northeastern Puerto Rico since 8 PM AST,
higher than surface station reports, which have indicated up to a
quarter of an inch in southeastern Puerto Rico over the same period.
Overnight temperatures have been typical, ranging from the low 60s
in higher elevations to the mid-70s along coastal areas northeastern
and southeastern of Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands.

Surface high pressure over the North Atlantic will continue to drive
breezy east-to-east-northeast winds across the region, with wind
speeds expected to strengthen by Tuesday as the local pressure
gradient tightens. A mid-level ridge will remain over the northern
Caribbean, reinforcing a trade wind cap inversion that keeps
moisture confined to the lower atmosphere. However, a weak upper-
level trough will briefly interact with the ridge late tonight into
Tuesday night, temporarily weakening the cap while enhancing
instability and moisture levels. A "patchy" weather pattern with
fluctuating moisture levels will persist, shifting from typical
moisture levels today to drier-than-normal conditions (with
precipitable water around an inch) this evening and then to above-
normal moisture (over 1.5 inches) early Tuesday and Wednesday. This
shift will enhance scattered trade wind showers, coinciding with the
influence of the upper-level trough. While increased showers are
likely during periods of high moisture, breezy to windy conditions
will continue to drive trade wind showers, even during the driest
periods. These showers will primarily affect northern and eastern
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands, with
afternoon showers likely bringing moderate to local rains over
portions of western to southwestern sections.

While flooding is not anticipated, brief hazardous driving
conditions could occur due to isolated ponding and reduced
visibility. Seasonal temperatures in the low 80s will persist, with
persistent winds being the primary hazard, potentially affecting
marine conditions and coastal areas. For more details on this and
other hazards, visit the Experimental Graphical Hazard Weather
Outlook at https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=sju.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

A surface high pressure extending across the northern Atlantic will
continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds across
the region. By Thursday into Friday, a mid to upper level shortwave
trough will start to erode a mid-level ridge, increasing the
instability aloft. Therefore, there is an increased potential to
observe rainfall activity across the islands. However, by the
weekend a building mid-level ridge will establish and drier
conditions aloft will return.

The precipitable water content will remain at near normal to
slightly below normal with values at 1.1 to 1.4 inches throughout
much of the period, increasing to 1.8 inches on Friday. Overall,
with mostly dry conditions across the region, few showers will move
over the islands from time to time dragged by the trade winds during
the morning hours. Then the shower activity is expected to develop
over the western and central portions of Puerto Rico in the
afternoon hours. At this moment, no significant rainfall
accumulations are anticipated. Seasonal temperatures will remain
across the region with highs in the low to mid 80s along the coastal
and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail, but trade wind showers may cause
occasional MVFR conditions at northern PR and USVI terminals over
the next 24 hours. For TJPS, afternoon showers could bring MVFR
conditions between 10/16-23Z. Light and variable winds will
gradually become E-ENE at 14-18 knots, with sea breeze variations
after 10/12Z. E-ENE winds will continue after 10/23Z but at lower
speeds, around 6-10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
moderate to fresh east to northeast winds. These conditions will
persist throughout the workweek, resulting in choppy seas across
most local waters. Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue
across the offshore Atlantic waters and will likely spread into most
waters by the middle of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

There is a moderate risk of rip currents across most beaches of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Similar conditions will persist
throughout the workweek into the upcoming weekend. Some localized
exposed beaches along the north and northeast coasts may present
a higher threat due to the bathymetry of the area or jetties
along the shore. Beachgoers are urged to visit designated swimming
areas along the exposed northern coasts of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
446 AM AST Tue Feb 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Variable weather conditions are expected during the week with the
entrance of fast moving passing showers across the region. Breezy
conditions will persist, becoming windy today through the rest of
the week. As a result, choppy seas and deteriorated marine
conditions are expected to prevail through early next week. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect for most of the local waters
through the end of the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Passing showers moved across the regional waters, with some brushing
the northern and eastern coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. However, rainfall accumulations were minimal.
Minimum temperatures ranged from the upper 50s in the higher
elevations to the low to mid-70s in the coastal areas.

The GOES precipitable water analysis indicates a patch of low-level
moisture with values ranging from 1.3 to 1.4 inches upstream of the
islands. This will slightly increase the frequency of showers across
windward coastal sections during the morning hours. Local effects
and sea breeze convergence will contribute to the development of
some showers over southwestern Puerto Rico this afternoon.

A weak mid-to-upper-level ridge pattern over the region will
continue to promote dry air and stable conditions aloft. At the
surface, the pressure gradient has slightly weakened, resulting in a
subtle decrease in wind speeds across the region. However, it is
expected to tighten throughout today and persist through the short-
term forecast, maintaining fresh to strong easterly trades.

The mid-level ridge is forecast to weaken slightly on Thursday as a
mid-level shortwave trough moves over the region. Precipitable water
(PWAT) values are expected to remain between 0.90 and 1.50 inches
through the short-term period, mostly confined below 700 mb. Higher
values are associated with patches of moisture embedded in the
trades, streaming across the area from time to time. As a result,
quick passing showers will move across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
eastern Puerto Rico. Periods of showery weather may develop when
higher moisture content coincides with breezy wind conditions.
Lesser amounts are expected over southern Puerto Rico.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

A dominant surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to dominate the local weather conditions for the long term
period. This surface high will promote moderate to locally fresh
easterly to northeasterly winds for the first half of the period.
Then, becoming light to moderate from east to southeast from late
Sunday onward. In the mid levels, a short-wave trough will induce
some instability over the area on Friday. Therefore, there is an
increased potential to observe rainfall activity over the region,
in particular on Friday morning with the passage of a wind surge.
By Sunday into next week, a building mid-level ridge will
establish over the region, promoting drier conditions and
stability aloft.

The weather pattern have been very consistent from previous days,
with precipitable water content at normal and slightly below normal
values between 1.0 to 1.4 inches. Patches of moisture are expected
to continue to arrive to the local islands dragged by the trade
winds throughout much of the long term period. Light to moderate
showers are expected to affect the windward portions of the islands
occasionally during the morning hours. Then, followed by
afternoon activity over the western portions of Puerto Rico. At
this time, no significant rainfall accumulations are expected. The
days with the higher potential to observe more frequent showers
over the area are Friday and Sunday with PWAT values reaching the
1.7 inches. Overall, seasonal temperatures will persist across the
islands with highs in the low to mid 80s along the coastal and
urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, trade winds showers could move at
times across the USVI/Eastern PR terminals through the period
causing at times BKN cigs btw FL030- FL060. ENE winds, shifting more
out of the E, will continue at 15-20 kt with sea breeze variations
and higher gusts after 11/14z.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
moderate to fresh east to northeast winds. These conditions will
persist throughout the workweek, resulting in choppy seas across
most local waters. Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue
across the offshore Atlantic waters and will likely spread into most
waters by the end of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across most beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Similar conditions
will likely persist throughout most of the workweek with the
chance to increase to a high risk by midweek. Beachgoers are
encouraged to monitor the forecast each day for any update and
changes in the forecast.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 AM AST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy conditions will continue across the local islands, impacting
outdoor activities and operations. Small craft operators should
avoid hazardous seas caused by winds, which will continue into the
weekend. Low humidity, breezy conditions, drying soils, and available
fuels will create favorable conditions for fire spread today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Isolated to scattered showers were seen over the regional waters
overnight, with some activity reaching the northern and eastern
portions of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. It was breezy
too, with sustained winds up to 12 mph in the coastal areas, with
wind gusts at 15 to 20 mph. Minimum temperatures were seen in the
upper 50s in the mountains, to the low to mid 70s in the coastal and
urban areas.

A strong surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to tighten the local pressure gradient, resulting in fresh
to strong easterly winds across the region. A mid-to-upper level
high pressure ridge over the northeastern Caribbean will continue to
promote drier air stable conditions aloft. Given the current weather
conditions, patches of moisture will continue to move into the area,
promoting showers across the windward portions of the islands. Then,
the combination of the available moisture with local effects, and
daytime heating will result in afternoon convective activity across
the interior and western municipalities of Puerto Rico.

By Thursday into Friday, the mid-to-upper level ridge is expected to
slightly erode as a mid-level shortwave trough move over the area.
The latest precipitable water (PWAT) has values between 0.80 to 1.60
inches throughout the period, with slightly higher values on Thursday
night and Friday morning. The overall weather pattern will continue
very similar for the next few days with the arrival of patches of
moisture embedded in the trades, resulting in showery weather at
times. Seasonal temperatures will remain across the region with near
to above normal temperatures. Highs will remain in the mid 80s along
the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, and from the upper 70s to low 80s in the higher elevations.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

Based on the latest model guidance, weather conditions are expected
to remain variable throughout the forecast period, influenced by an
eastward-moving surface high pressure over the North Atlantic and
mid-level ridging. As the surface high shifts farther eastward, some
variations in the general wind flow are likely, but winds should
generally remain easterly at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts. The
expected breezy conditions will steer intermittent patches of
shallow moisture and drier air across the northeastern Caribbean,
resulting in periodic moisture fluctuations every 24-36 hours.
Precipitable water values will range from around 0.9-1.1 inches
during the driest periods to 1.6-1.7 inches during the wettest
periods. Mid-level ridging will promote hostile conditions for deep
convective development, with a marked trade wind cap inversion and
drier air aloft, particularly by the latter part of the long-term
forecast. If convection develops, particularly during the afternoon
hours, it is expected to remain mostly shallow.

Overall, variable weather conditions are anticipated, with an
increased frequency of trade wind showers and possible afternoon
convective development during high-moisture periods. The highest
impacts will primarily affect windward sections of the islands,
though strong steering flow may push trade wind showers further
inland. Additionally, afternoon convective development could bring
periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall to other areas.
However, excessive rainfall impacts should remain limited at most,
with the main risks being ponding of water on roadways and in poorly
drained areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all terminals during
the next 24 hours. Trade wind showers could move at times over the
TJSJ/TIST/TISX terminals thru 12/14Z. E winds will prevail btw 15-20
kts with sea breeze variations and higher gusts aft 12/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to locally strong east winds. These conditions will persist
throughout the workweek, resulting in rough and hazardous seas
across most local waters. Passing showers may develop at times
throughout the workweek promoting stronger gusty wind conditions in
localized areas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

For today, there is a moderate risk of rip currents across most of
the beaches in Puerto Rico (including Vieques and Culebra) and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Similar conditions are expected to
continue into the weekend. This means that life-threatening rip
currents are possible in the surf zone and beachgoers must stay
alert and be careful.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier conditions and stronger winds will contribute to an increased
fire danger risk today across the region. A drier air mass moving
through will limit moisture recovery, keeping relative humidity
values in the low to mid-40s across southern coastal plains and
around low to mid 50s elsewhere. Winds are expected to
strengthen, ranging from 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, further
exacerbating fire danger conditions by enhancing fire spread
potential. Given these expected conditions and KBDI values
remaining above 550, an RFDSJU has been issued due to the elevated
risk of fire spread.

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
514 AM AST Thu Feb 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A trough will increase shower activity across the islands today.
A broad low to mid-level ridge northeast of the region will
remain in place for most of the forecast period, promoting breezy
conditions across the islands. Choppy to hazardous seas and life-
threatening rip currents will continue into the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

Mostly fair weather prevailed in the past hours, with light to
moderate showers reaching windward sections and local waters. Breezy
conditions persisted across coastal areas, where few stations
including airports reported wind gusts up to 25 kts. Minimum
temperatures remained in the 70s in the lower terrains while higher
terrains observed low to mid 60s.

The breezy to windy conditions will continue across the region for
the rest of the forecast period. The broad surface high pressure
moving eastward will maintain easterly winds for today. However, a
surface high pressure over southeastern CONUS will also move and
shift winds from the east-northeast later on Friday. A mid level
trough southeast of the region will increase PWAT values and
increase shower activity during the morning today mainly over
windward sections and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Nevertheless, a mid
level ridge north of the region will limit deep convection activity
promoting stability aloft. Based on the latest model guidance, it is
very likely to see trade wind disturbance moving across the region,
mainly late this afternoon and early tomorrow on Valentine's Day.
Frequent moderate to locally heavy showers will move mostly over
northern and eastern Puerto Rico, with a medium chance of shallow
convection activity over western Puerto Rico. Although the risk of
flooding remains low, ponding of water on roadways, urban, and
poorly drained areas is very likely, including wet pavement over the
aforementioned areas. Conditions will then improve as a drier air
mass moves later in the night. A similar pattern is expected for
Saturday, with a combination of patches of moisture and drier air
moving across the region.

Maximum temperatures across northern and eastern coastal and urban
areas will remain in the low to mid 80s while western/southwestern
portions may experience higher temperatures up to low 90s. Meanwhile,
the interior sectors will remain in the mid to upper 70s.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

A low-to mid-level ridge extending from the central Atlantic will
promote fresh to locally strong trades across the local area
through the long-term period. Meanwhile, at upper levels, a
short-wave trough will press over the ridge while moving further
into the Tropical Atlantic by midweek. This will induce low-level
perturbations or weak troughs that will be carried by the trades
across the eastern Caribbean from time to time. The best moisture
content will remain at the lower levels, below 850 mb under the
trade wind cap. Therefore, a similar weather pattern will continue
with breezy conditions and passing showers streaming across the
USVI and eastern sections of PR each day. Limited shower activity
is anticipated over western PR in diurnal activity. Overall, the
24-hr rainfall accumulations are not expected to exceed more than
half to an inch of rain, with the highest concentrations expected
across the eastern portions of PR.

Seasonal temperatures will continue with daytime highs reaching
the mid 80s across the USVI and north/eastern sections of PR,
while the south to west coast of PR could experience temperatures
from the mid 80s to low 90s. Minimum temperatures in general will
remain from the low to mid 70s across coastal areas to the upper
50s and low 60s across the higher elevations.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06z TAFs)

Mostly VFR conds for all terminals. -RA/+RA for IST and ISX due to
showers embedded in the trades through the morning. A disturbance in
the trades will promote VCSH along windward sections after 13/15z.
Mainly E-ENE winds of 15-25 kt and wind gusts up to 30 kt btw 13/13-
13/23z. Winds will slow down after 13/23z, but gusts will prevail
mainly along all TAF sites.


&&

.MARINE...

A strong surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will
maintain fresh (15-20 kts) to locally strong (20-25 kts) east to
east-northeast winds over the next few days. These conditions
will create rough to hazardous seas across most local waters, with
Small Craft Advisories in effect through at least Saturday
afternoon. A trough embedded in the trade winds today will
increase showers with gusty winds across the local waters.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Wind-driven waves will promote a high risk of rip currents across
the east and north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and St. Croix. Most other areas are under a moderate
risk of rip currents. The threat for life-threatening rip currents
is expected to persist into the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Fri Feb 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A trough passing south of the area will increase shower activity
today. A strong low to mid-level ridge northeast of the region
will remain in place for most of the forecast period, promoting
windy conditions across the islands. Choppy to hazardous seas and
life-threatening rip currents will continue into the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Showers embedded in the trades persisted during the night, mainly
along northern and eastern Puerto Rico, USVI, and local waters.
Doppler radar rainfall accumulations since 00z highlight
precipitation mainly over north central and eastern PR, ranging from
0.20-0.40 and 0.10-0.20 inches respectively. This matches with
station reports of rainfall accumulation of 0.43-0.44 inches in
Vega Baja and Vega Alta and 0.26 inches in Naguabo. Strong winds in
coastal areas prevailed once again, as stations reported maximum
gusts of 30 kt. Minimum temperatures are expected to remain in the
low to mid 70s in the lower elevations and low to mid 60s in the
higher elevations.

The variable and "patchy" weather will continue through this
weekend. Current radar loop shows isolated to scattered showers
moving along windward sections and expected to continue through
early morning. Based on climatology and model guidance, today
(Valentine's Day) is projected as the "wettest" day of the short-
term period. The surface high pressure migrating to the Central
Atlantic will continue promoting E-ENE winds, pushing patches of
moisture into the region. Ensemble 24-hour rainfall accumulation
suggests most activity will take place over northern and eastern PR,
increasing the potential of excessive rainfall but mainly just
ponding of water in roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas. As
breezy to windy conditions are expected once again for today and the
mid-level ridge lingering north of the region, shallow convection
activity in the afternoon will mainly be over coastal areas of
western PR. This weather pattern will prevail for the rest of the
weekend, with patches of moisture coming in but not presenting a
risk of flooding.

As the surface high pressure migrates and another high pressure
exiting eastern CONUS moves eastward, the pressure gradient will
decrease, and with that wind speed. However, the breezy conditions
will continue through the weekend. Seasonal temperatures are very
likely, with maximum along urban and coastal areas observing low to
mid 80s and interior portions remaining in the low to mid 70s.


.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

A low-to mid-level ridge extending from the central Atlantic will
promote fresh to locally strong trade winds across the area
throughout the workweek. Meanwhile, at the upper levels, a short-
wave trough will move from the western Atlantic into the tropical
Atlantic by midweek. This will create low-level trade wind
perturbations, or weak troughs, that will be transported by the
trade winds across the eastern Caribbean intermittently.

The best moisture content will remain in the lower levels, below
850 mb, under the trade wind cap. As a result, a similar weather
pattern is expected to continue with breezy conditions and passing
showers affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands and the eastern
sections of Puerto Rico each day. Limited shower activity is
anticipated over western Puerto Rico during the day. Overall, the
24-hour rainfall accumulations are not expected to exceed half an
inch to one inch, with the highest concentrations likely
occurring in the eastern portions of Puerto Rico.

Seasonal temperatures will continue with daytime highs reaching
the mid 80s across the USVI and north/eastern sections of PR,
while the south to west coast of PR could experience temperatures
from the mid 80s to low 90s. Minimum temperatures in general will
remain from the low to mid 70s across coastal areas to the upper
50s and low 60s across the higher elevations.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06z TAFs)

VFR conds will prevail for all TAF sites. -RA btw 14/06-14/12z at
JSJ and JBQ due to scattered showers embedded in the trades. Another
patch of moisture will arrive later tonight, reducing CIGs and
bringing VCSH for all terminals after 14/18z. E-ENE winds will
prevail during the TAF prd, from 10 to 20 kt and gusty winds up to
30 kts for all sites.


&&

.MARINE...

A strong surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will
maintain fresh (15-20 kts) to locally strong (20-25 kts) east to
east-northeast winds over the next few days. These conditions
will create rough to hazardous seas across most local waters, with
Small Craft Advisories in effect through at least Sunday.
Cloudiness and showers will continue to increase across the local
waters due to a trough moving across the Caribbean Sea.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Short period wind-driven waves will continue to promote life-
threatening rip currents along the north and east facing beaches
of the islands through the weekend. A low to moderate risk of rip
currents will prevail across the south to southwest coast of
Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
426 AM AST Sat Feb 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy conditions will continue today, with a trade wind
perturbation bringing an increase in showers with periods of
locally heavy rainfall through at least this afternoon. East to
southeasterly winds and drier conditions are expected on Sunday.
Another trade wind perturbation moves from the east on Monday
increasing shower activity once again. Fair weather conditions
with occasional trade wind showers are expected through the rest
of the workweek.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

More frequent light to moderate showers from the NE persisted
overnight, with breezy to windy conditions across coastal areas of
the local islands. Doppler radar rainfall estimates from 00z along
northern and eastern PR ranged from 0.20-0.75 inches with
localized areas near 1 inch. Stations located at St. John and St.
Croix observed accumulations from 0.05 to 0.09 inches. Seasonal
temperatures were observed across the region, with stations at
lower elevations reporting low to mid 70s while higher elevations
remained in the low to mid 60s. Stations along coastal areas,
mainly at windward sections, reported gusty winds up to 30 knots.

A variable weather pattern along breezy to windy conditions with
gusty winds will continue for the rest of the weekend and the
beginning of the work week. The surface high pressure in the western
Atlantic migrating eastward will continue to promote strong trade
winds and filter patches of moisture into the region. Based on
current satellite and radar images, shower activity will continue in
the morning along windward sections and shallow convection over
southwestern PR in the afternoon. By Sunday, PWAT values will
decrease to below climatological normal and winds will slow down and
have a southerly component, maintaining the highest moisture content
north of the region and a drier air mass filtering into the region.
Additionally, this will promote near to above climatological normal
temperatures along the forecast area, mainly over urban and coastal
areas. Winds will return from the E-ENE by Monday, and another patch
of moisture will arrive in the morning hours. The mid level ridge
will continue lingering north of the region for the next several
days, maintaining a strong cap inversion and promoting stability
aloft. This will also limit deep convective activity and remain
shallow for western Puerto Rico in the afternoons. The risk of
flooding remains low, however, is likely to observe ponding of water
along roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

A low to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh (15-20kt) trade winds across the area
for most of the forecast period. Embedded in this wind flow, trade
wind perturbations induced by a short-wave trough across the
Tropical Atlantic will reach the local area from time to time. The
500 mb temperatures are expected to remain between -6C and -8C
through Wednesday as the upper-level trough moves further eastward
over the Tropical Atlantic, and warming up to -4C into the
weekend. However, the precipitable water content will remain below
normal levels through the workweek (1.00-1.25 inches), and
increase between 1.50-1.75 inches by Friday night into Saturday
morning.

At least through the workweek, a similar weather pattern is
expected with shallow moisture content bringing occasional passing
showers across the windward areas of the islands during the
night/early morning hours. Late in the workweek into the weekend,
a deep layered trough and associated surface trough will move
across the western Atlantic, pushing eastward the ridge across
the central Atlantic, and promoting a weakness over the area with
the arrival of a surface trough from the east and higher moisture
content. As the pressure gradient relaxes, light to moderate
trades (10-15 kt) are expected on Friday. Therefore, showers with
periods of locally heavy rains are expected to increase with the
passage of the surface trough from Friday through Saturday.

Seasonal temperatures will persist, with daytime highs reaching
the mid-80s across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the north/eastern
sections of Puerto Rico. In contrast, the southern to western
coast of Puerto Rico may experience temperatures ranging from the
mid-80s to low 90s. Minimum temperatures are generally expected to
range from the low to mid-70s in coastal areas to the upper 50s
and low 60s in higher elevations.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06z TAFs)

VFR conds for all terminals, with -RA at windward sections due to
showers embedded in the trades that will decrease by 15/12z and
become VCSH until 15/18z. -SHRA btw 15/06-15/08z for TJBQ, reducing
CIG/VIS and temporary MVFR conds. E-ENE from 10 to 20 kt and gust
from 20 - 30 kt btw 15/12-15/23z, reducing to 5-15 kt along all TAF
sites.


&&

.MARINE...

Strong trades (20-25 kt) are expected today. Seas up to 8 feet
will continue across the Atlantic waters through Sunday, and up to
7 feet across most coastal waters and Passages. Therefore, a Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for these waters through at
least Sunday. Seas up to 7 feet may continue across the offshore
Atlantic waters early in the workweek and the SCA could be
extended once again.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Short period wind-driven waves will maintain a high risk of rip
currents across the northern and eastern beaches of the islands
through at least early Sunday morning. A low to moderate risk of
rip currents will prevail across the south to southwest coast of
Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 AM AST Sun Feb 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

East to southeasterly winds and drier conditions are expected
today. A trade wind perturbation is expected to reach the area on
Monday increasing shower activity once again. Fair weather conditions
with occasional trade wind showers are expected through the rest
of the workweek. However, a surface trough with higher moisture
content is expected by the end of the week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Fair weather prevailed overnight, with a few isolated showers over
the eastern and northern portions of Puerto Rico and local waters,
but no significant rainfall accumulations. Winds continue to slow
down, Wind gusts remained slightly lower than yesterday, ranging
from 15-20 knots over coastal areas. Seasonal temperatures were
observed across the region, with stations reporting low to mid 70s
along lower elevations and low to mid 60s at higher elevations.

The variable weather pattern will continue across the CWA for the
short-term period. The broad surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic migrating eastward will continue promoting trade winds for
the next several days. Today, winds will slow down and shift
southeasterly, moving high low-level moisture content just offshore
waters of the region. Isolated showers are very likely to continue
in the morning along portions of northeastern Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A drier air mass will filter
into the region later today, plummeting PWAT values below the
climatological normal (0.8-0.9 inches) and promoting stable and
pleasant weather. Maximum temperatures along coastal and urban areas
will be slightly higher, from the mid to upper 80s, and localized
areas reaching the lower 90s.

Based on the latest model guidances, a surge of moisture will arrive
on Monday, increasing moisture content in the low and mid levels to
above-climatological normals. This will bring isolated to scattered
showers mainly over windward sections and portions of western PR
during the afternoon. Although the mid level ridge continues
promoting stability aloft and strong cap inversion, rainfall
accumulations could increase the risk of flooding, promoting ponding
of water in roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas along isolated
urban and small streams. As winds shift once again from the E-ENE,
high moisture content will remain south of the local islands, with
the strongest showers mainly over St. Croix and windward sections.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

A low to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic will generate
moderate to locally fresh trade winds (15-20 knots) across the
area for most of the forecast period. Within this wind flow, trade
wind perturbations induced by a short-wave trough in the Tropical
Atlantic will occasionally affect the local area. However, mostly
fair weather conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
The precipitable water content will remain below normal levels
through at least early Thursday, ranging from 1.00 to 1.25 inches,
before increasing to between 1.50 and 1.75 inches by Friday night
into Saturday morning.

Early in the forecast cycle, a similar weather pattern is
anticipated, with pockets of dry air and shallow moisture content
bringing occasional showers across the windward areas of the
islands during the night and early morning hours, and fair weather
conditions during the day. However, late in the workweek and into
the weekend, a deep-layered trough and an associated surface
front will move across the western Atlantic. This will push the
ridge to the east and create a weakness in the area as a surface
trough arrives from the east, resulting in higher moisture
content. Global models differ on the arrival of the surface
trough, with the ECMWF having a faster solution between Thursday
and Friday, and the GFS from Friday to Saturday. As the pressure
gradient weakens, light to moderate trade winds (10-15 knots) are
expected on Friday. Consequently, the likelihood of showers and
periods of locally heavy rainfall will increase with the passage
of the trough by the end of the workweek into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06z TAFs)

VFR conds will prevail at all TAF sites, with periods of VCSH btw
16/06-16/12 for JSJ, IST, and ISX. E-ESE winds from 10-20 kt and
gusts from 20-25 kt btw 16/12z - 16/22z. Winds will slow down from
ESE-E from 5 - 10 knots after 16/23z.


&&

.MARINE...

Choppy to hazardous seas will continue through at least early in the
workweek across most offshore waters. Winds will turn more
southeasterly through Monday, turning easterly once again from
Tuesday onwards. A surface trough moving from the east will increase
shower activity by the end of the workweek.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Although wind-driven seas will gradually subside across the
coastal waters of the islands, a moderate risk of rip currents
will persist across the north, east, and southern beaches of the
islands for the next several days.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier air mass over the region, strong southeasterly winds
along the southern coast of PR, and drying of fuels will support
fire weather conditions today across the southern coastal plains
and western sections of Puerto Rico. The relative humidity is
expected to drop from the low to mid-40s across the southern
coast of PR between the late morning and mid-afternoon hours. Wind
speeds are expected to range from 16 to 24 mph with gusts between
30 to 35 mph at times under a stronger sea breeze across the south
coast. The KDBI yesterday was at 601 in Guanica and 630 in
Maricao, supporting an elevated fire risk for southern and western
PR. Given the expected conditions, a Fire Danger Statement has
been issued due to the elevated risk of fire spread.


&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
441 AM AST Mon Feb 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

East to southeasterly winds and a drier air mass will increase the
spread of wildfires today across southern PR. Maximum temperatures
should range from the mid to upper 80s in general across the
islands, however, they could reach the low 90s along the southern
coast of PR. Fair weather conditions with occasional trade wind
showers are expected through the rest of the workweek. However, a
surface trough with higher moisture content is expected by the end
of the week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Overnight, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands experienced
mostly calm weather with pleasant temperatures. The sky was
primarily clear, with temperatures in the lower elevations ranging
from the upper 60s to low 70s, and in the mountains, they were in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds were light, generally from the east-
southeast at around 5 mph, with some isolated areas experiencing up
to 10 mph wind speeds.

The latest model guidance indicates a broad surface high-pressure
system drifting eastward across the Central Atlantic, which is
expected to bring typical seasonal weather conditions. A surge of
moisture will increase moisture to around the 700mb level, promoting
isolation to scattered showers, primarily affecting the windward
areas and portions of western Puerto Rico during the afternoon.
Despite the presence of a mid-level ridge promoting stability aloft
and a strong cap inversion, localized rainfall could occasionally
increase the risk of flooding, particularly leading to ponding on
roadways and in poorly drained areas. The maximum temperature today
should remain in the upper 80s along the coast and the mountains in
the mid to upper 70s.

Late today (Monday) into early Tuesday, winds are forecast to shift
to a more easterly-northeasterly along with a drop to below-normal
precipitable water values, leading to a more stable weather pattern.
This will result in only occasional showers over the windward
regions of the islands. Overall, variable weather conditions are
expected to prevail through at least mid-week.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

Global models suggest weakening of the broad ridge over the
central Atlantic throughout the long term period, as back to back
upper level troughs with associated fronts move across the western
Atlantic. The frontal boundaries are expected to remain just north
of the region, however, pre-frontal troughs are expected to
develop over the islands and bring increasing moisture content
from late in the workweek and through the weekend. The GFS
indicates peaks of just over 1.50 inches of PWAT during this
period, while the ECMWF suggest slightly higher moisture content
with a shearline moving over or close to the area on Sunday.
Consequently, the likelihood of showers and periods of locally
heavy rainfall will increase if this weather pattern unfolds.

A weak surface ridge over the central and eastern Atlantic will
promote light to moderate trades until late in forecast cycle,
when a broad surface high builds over the western Atlantic
promoting moderate to locally fresh east to northeast winds.
Seasonal temperatures will persist, with daytime highs reaching
the mid-80s across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the north/eastern
sections of Puerto Rico. In contrast, the southern to western
coast of Puerto Rico may experience temperatures ranging from the
mid-80s to low 90s. Minimum temperatures are generally expected to
range from the low to mid-70s in coastal areas to the upper 50s
and low 60s in higher elevations.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06z TAFs)

VFR conds across all TAF sites, with periods of VCSH after 17/18Z
for JSJ, IST, and ISX. Some afternoon rainfall activity could impact
JBQ after 17/20Z. ESE winds should prevail from 6-18 kt and
occasional higher gusts.


&&

.MARINE...

Choppy to hazardous seas will continue through at least early in the
workweek across most offshore waters and Anegada Passage. Moderate to
locally fresh east to southeasterly winds will continue today,
turning more east to northeast from Tuesday onwards. A surface
trough moving from the east will increase shower activity by the end
of the workweek.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Although wind-driven seas will slowly subside across the coastal
waters of the islands, a moderate risk of rip currents will
persist across the north, east, and southern beaches of the
islands for the next several days. Small pulses of northerly
swells will reach the Atlantic beaches of the islands on Tuesday
and Friday. Increasing the potential for life-threatening rip
currents in some northern exposed beaches of PR and Culebra.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another drier air mass is expected to move during the day over the
islands and relative humidities could drop once again below 55%
across the southern hills and coastal sections of Puerto Rico,
particularly from Santa Isabel to Lajas. The combination of
southeasterly winds with the sea breeze is expected to bring
sustained wind speeds above 15 mph with gusts over 25 mph across
the same areas, and KBDI values remain at Red Flag criteria in
Guanica (604). Given the expected conditions, a Fire Danger
Statement has been issued due to the elevated risk of fire spread.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
503 AM AST Tue Feb 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

The dry trend, rainfall deficit across the south and west PR, and
the increasing easterly winds will maintain favorable conditions
for the risk of wildfires today across these locations. Maximum
temperatures are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s
throughout the islands, with some areas along the southern plains
potentially reaching the low 90s. A mix of clear skies and clouds,
along with occasional trade wind showers, will characterize the
weather during the workweek. However, a surface trough with higher
moisture content is anticipated by the weekend, with another
possible increase in showers by next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

During the night and into the early morning hours, calm and stable
weather conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. The sky was mostly clear, and there were no significant
weather features present to disrupt the tranquility of the overnight
hours. Temperatures in the urban and coastal areas hovered in the
low 70s, offering a comfortable environment for both locals and
visitors. In contrast, the mountainous and rural regions experienced
slightly cooler temperatures, ranging from the low to mid-60s. Winds
were from the east-southeast at speeds of around 5 to 10 mph, gently
swaying trees and adding to the calmness of the night. However, some
isolated areas saw winds reaching up to 15 mph. Overall, the
overnight weather was fairly tranquil.

Today, the residents and visitors of the islands can expect
southeasterly winds due to the influence of a high-pressure system
over the central Atlantic. This wind flow is foreseen to be
accompanied by a slight increase in moisture that will raise
humidity levels to around 700mb. Despite this, precipitable water
values should remain near normal for this time of the year.
Temperatures today will reach the low 80s in the lower elevations,
with some isolated areas in southern and western Puerto Rico
possibly reaching the low 90s. Meaning that fire weather areas in
Puerto Rico could be affected as warm temperatures are foreseen but
not enough moisture or precipitable water is anticipated today.
Late tonight into Wednesday, winds will gradually shift to the east-
northeast as the surface high pressure adjusts, influenced by the
interaction of a multilevel trough and its associated frontal
boundary exiting the eastern United States. Wednesday is expected to
be the driest day of the short-term period as a drier air mass will
move across the region.

The latest model guidance suggests a weakening of the broad ridge
over the central Atlantic, along with a pre-frontal trough
developing over the islands by Thursday. This will lead to an
increase in moisture content, bringing back the showery weather
pattern, with light to moderate showers expected over the windward
coastal areas of the islands.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

A mid-to-upper-level ridge will weaken even more due to an
approaching trough aloft. A zonal flow will be established on
Saturday and Sunday, with diffluence developing Monday into
Tuesday over the Northeast Caribbean as a jet stream moves arrives
from the west. These factors would promote instability aloft to
increase across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, giving
place to periods of moderate to locally heavy rains if enough
moisture arrives, especially during the maximum diurnal heating.

On the other hand, across the low level, most of the cold front
will remain away from the islands. However, a prefrontal trough
could form over or near Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands on
Saturday and early Sunday. Additionally, the arrival of trade wind
perturbations will be the primary source of moisture in the long
term. A vertical transect in our region indicates an increase
along the column of air Saturday and Sunday, surpassing 700 MB and
reaching almost 600 MB, which could result in scattered to
numerous downpour events. If that moisture pools over the region
during the afternoons, it could be enhanced by sea breeze
variations and across the windward locations by low-level
convergence and local topography. Another sharp increase in the
available moisture is observed late Monday night into Tuesday, and
the arrival of a Jet stream will accompany it. The aforementioned
weather pattern is a rain-producing one. Thus, we should remain
aware of these possible events as we may see a better chance of
flooding rains during these periods.

Seasonal temperatures will remain consistent, with daytime highs
in the mid-80s across the US Virgin Islands and northeastern
Puerto Rico. The southern and western coasts of Puerto Rico may
see highs in the low 90s. Minimum temperatures are expected to
range from the low to mid-70s in coastal areas to the upper 50s to
low 60s in higher elevations.&&

.AVIATION...
(06z TAFs)

VFR conds across all TAF sites, with periods of VCSH after 18/15Z
for JSJ, IST, and ISX. Some afternoon rainfall activity could impact
JBQ after 18/18Z. ESE winds should prevail from 6-15 kt and
occasional higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...

The surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic will promote
choppy seas due to east to northeast winds across the region
today. Then, the interaction between the frontal boundary moving
across the western Atlantic and the high pressure will result in
moderate to locally fresh east to southeasterly winds Thursday
through Friday. A prefrontal trough will increase shower activity
by the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Life-threatening rip currents will form along the north and east-
facing beaches in PR due to small pulses of northerly swells,
where a high risk of rip currents is in effect. Additionally, the
risk of rip currents is moderate for the US Virgin Islands and the
rest of the local beaches in PR. Small pulses of northerly swells
will reach the Atlantic beaches of the islands once again on
Friday. Increasing the potential for life-threatening rip currents
in some northern exposed beaches of PR and Culebra.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture levels are expected to rise by this afternoon, but they
won’t be enough to reduce today’s fire weather risk. Rainfall
deficits in southern and western Puerto Rico, combined with
increasing easterly winds and sea breezes, create favorable
conditions for wildfires. Relative humidity is likely to drop
below 55% in the southern hills and coastal areas, with sustained
winds over 15 mph and gusts exceeding 25 mph. The Keetch-Byram
Drought Index (KBDI) is at Red Flag criteria in Guánica, currently
at 607. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued due to the
elevated risk of fire spread.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
525 AM AST Wed Feb 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

The dry trend continues across the islands today, extending the
rainfall deficit across the south-central and west PR and under
increasing east to southeasterly winds; thus, we expect a high
risk of favorable weather conditions for spreading wildfires today
across these locations. Additionally, a fading northerly swell and
increasing winds will promote a high risk of rip currents,
especially along the north-facing beaches of PR and the northern
US Virgin Islands. We expect a mix of clear skies, clouds, and
limited trade wind showers through the rest of the workweek.
However, a surface trough with higher moisture content will shift
the forecast to a wetter one by the weekend. Another shower
increase is suggested around Monday or Tuesday, with less activity
by mid-next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Overnight weather remained calm, with mostly clear skies over Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds were primarily from the
east, maintaining a northeasterly component. Urban and coastal areas
experienced temperatures hovering in the 70s, creating a comfortable
environment for both locals and visitors. In contrast, mountainous
and rural regions were cooler, with temperatures in the 60s.

The latest satellite imagery indicates a dominant drier air mass
over the local region. Precipitable water models suggest values
slowly transitioning from the 25th percentile (below normal) to the
50th percentile (near normal) for this time of year. As a result,
little to no rain is expected across the islands today. Winds will
gradually shift east-southeast due to the interaction between a
surface high-pressure system and a frontal boundary moving westward
into the North Atlantic. Maximum temperatures are forecasted to
remain in the 80s to low 90s across lower elevations, while higher
terrains will experience temperatures in the 70s. These conditions
could contribute to a significant fire danger risk, particularly
along the southern and western sections of Puerto Rico.
Consequently, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas.
Therefore, we urge people to be aware of and stay updated on any
changes in the forecast today.

However, from Thursday into early Friday, increasing moisture will
allow precipitable water values to be around 1.6 inches, reaching
the 75th percentile. This will result in a higher frequency and
intensity of showers. Both ensemble models and local guidance
indicate that Thursday will likely be the wettest day of the short-
term period.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

A short wave trough will increase instability across the islands
by the weekend, promoting diffluence around Monday into Tuesday
over the Northeast Caribbean. A jet stream will also move closer
to the region by early next week. These factors will result in
some instability in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico region,
giving place to periods of moderate to locally heavy rains if
enough moisture arrives, especially during the maximum diurnal
heating.

As a frontal boundary lingers north of the islands, a prefrontal
trough will promote moisture pooling over or near Puerto Rico and
the US Virgin Islands during the weekend, increasing the
probability of precipitation across the region. There is a good
chance to observe flooding rains on Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday, winds will shift mainly from the east-
southeast, resulting in warmer temperatures across the islands.
Under this wind flow, patches of moisture embedded in the winds
will be the primary source of moisture. Low-level convergence will
enhance the formation of showers across the windward locations
each day. Additionally, sea breeze variations will promote the
formation of afternoon showers across the western locations of PR.
Model guidance suggests moisture erosion around Wednesday as a
mid-level high pressure tries to build over the islands.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06z TAFs)

All TAF sites should experience VFR conds. Brief periods of VCSh
could filter across eastern Puerto Rico, affecting JSJ. Some
afternoon rainfall activity could impact JBQ after 19/22Z. ESE winds
should prevail from 6-20 kt and occasional higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...

A fading northerly swell will continue to move across the Atlantic
waters. The surface high pressure across the central Atlantic
interacting with the frontal boundary over the western Atlantic will
promote choppy seas due to moderate to locally fresh east to east-
southeast winds across the region during the next few days. A
prefrontal trough will increase shower activity by the weekend.

Fresh to locally strong winds will deteriorate marine conditions
for small craft later this evening. As a result, a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Life-threatening rip currents will continue to form along the
north-facing beaches in PR and the northern US Virgin Islands due
to fading pulses of northerly swells, where a high risk of rip
currents is in effect. Additionally, the risk of rip currents is
moderate for the rest of the local beaches. Pulses of another
northerly swell and increasing winds will increase the risk of rip
currents again on Friday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The drying trend continues across the islands, especially across
the south-central and western areas of PR, where the rainfall
deficits throughout the past 30 days are notable. The hazardous
KBDI values at the stations along the southern, southwest, and
western locations, combined with increasing east-southeast winds,
sea breezes, and strong gusty winds, as well as relative humidity
values around the low 40s or lower, will create a dangerous fire
weather conditions. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has been issued
due to the high risk of wildfire spreading associated with these
conditions.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 AM AST Thu Feb 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Moisture embedded in the winds will increase the likelihood of
observing occasional showers across the windward locations today
and Friday. Winds will range between 15 and 20 mph from east to
east-southeast. Pulses of northerly swell will cause life-
threatening rip currents along the PR and the USVI's Atlantic
coastline by Friday. A prefrontal trough will pool additional
moisture, increasing the potential for showery weather on Saturday
and Sunday. We expect a mix of clear skies, clouds, and limited
trade wind showers early next week. However, wind perturbations
will bring occasional moisture pockets, creating daily rain
activity, especially along the windward areas. Western locations
could observe afternoon convection each day due to sea breeze
variations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

Today through Saturday...

As forecasted, cloud cover and patches of moisture gradually
increased overnight across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Winds remained from the east-southeast at 4 to 12 mph, with
higher speeds observed within areas of rainfall. Rainfall
accumulations currently range between 0.10 and 0.30 inches over
eastern Puerto Rico, Saint Thomas, and Saint John. Temperature-wise,
urban and coastal areas experienced lows in the 70s, while
mountainous and rural regions experienced temperatures in the 60s.

Recent model guidance indicates that precipitable water values will
gradually increase from normal levels (1.2 to 1.4 inches) to
slightly above normal (around 1.5 inches) through early Friday.
Additionally, moisture content will increase to above 700mb,
enhancing the likelihood of vertical shower development due to mid-
level instability. This rise in moisture and precipitation activity
is associated with an induced surface trough moving north-
northwestward into the Caribbean. Today and early Friday are
expected to be the wettest days of the short-term forecast.
Therefore, residents and visitors in Puerto Rico (PR) and the U.S.
Virgin Islands (USVI) should expect a slight increase in shower
activity, particularly across eastern and interior PR and the USVI
in the morning, with afternoon showers developing over northwestern
PR. A limited risk of flooding is present, as ponding of water on
roads and in poorly drained areas is anticipated.

By late Friday, a slightly drier air mass will move into the region,
reducing convective activity. However, local effects may still
trigger isolated showers across western and northwestern Puerto
Rico. A shortwave trough is expected to enhance instability once
again over the weekend.

Maximum temperatures will remain in the 80s across lower elevations,
while higher terrains will see temperatures in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

The primary rain producer during the long term will be associated
with a prefrontal trough that will extend the moisture pooling
over PR and the USVI on Sunday. During this time, we could see
periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, producing ponding of
water in poorly drained areas with some isolated urban flooding if
low-level convergence enhances the activity.

Next week, the islands will continue under an advective pattern
with a mixture of sunshine (during the day) and mostly clear skies
(overnight) with occasional clouds. Sometimes, wind perturbations
will bring surges of moisture, resulting in showery weather. The
latest model guidance suggests Tuesday or next Thursday, the days
with the best moisture content.

Most of the time, winds will persist from the east to east-
southeast, increasing the potential to observe near to above-
normal warmer temperatures, especially during the afternoon,
closer to the maximum heating time of the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06z TAFs)

All TAF sites should experience VFR conds. However, brief periods of
MVFR conditions are forecast at JPS after 20/13Z and JBQ after
20/17Z. Frequent VCSH will filter across eastern Puerto Rico,
affecting JSJ, IST, and ISX. ESE winds should prevail from 7-18 kt
and occasional higher gusts.


&&

.MARINE...

A high pressure across the central Atlantic will promote choppy seas
due to moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds across
the region for the rest of the workweek. Deteriorating marine
conditions are anticipated for the weekend due to a long-period
northerly swell. Also, a prefrontal trough will increase shower
activity by the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

The risk of rip currents is now moderate across PR and the USVI's
Atlantic coastlines. However, occasional life-threatening rip
currents will develop in exposed beaches and at low spots or
breaks in the sandbar and nearby structures such as groins,
jetties, and piers. Please exercise caution. Pulses of another
northerly swell and increasing winds will result in a High Risk of
Rip Currents one more time by Friday.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Pulses of northerly swell will cause life-threatening rip currents
along the PR and the USVI's Atlantic coastline today. Although a
stable pattern will hold today, a moisture surge will bring some
showers across portions of the islands. However, expect a mixture
of sunshine and clouds. A prefrontal trough will pool additional
moisture, increasing the potential for showery weather on Saturday
and Sunday. We anticipate a combination of clear skies and clouds,
with limited trade wind showers early next week. However, wind
disturbances may bring occasional pockets of moisture, leading to
daily rain, particularly in the windward areas. Locations in the
west could experience afternoon convection each day due to
variations in the sea breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Overnight, calm and stable conditions prevailed across the islands,
with easterly winds ranging from 4 to 10 mph. Temperatures varied,
with urban and coastal areas experiencing lows in the upper 60s to
mid-70s, while mountainous and rural regions cooled to the low to
mid-60s.

Today is expected to be the most stable day of the short-term period
as a high pressure and slightly drier air mass moves into the region
through the late morning. Model guidance suggests a drop in humidity
and precipitable water values from normal to below normal for this
time of year, reducing the potential for shower development.
However, localized afternoon rainfall is anticipated over western
Puerto Rico due to diurnal heating and local effects. This activity
could lead to ponding on roads and in poorly drained areas. Tonight
into tomorrow, winds will gradually shift from east to northeast.

Fire weather-wise, winds should slightly decreased today, and in
combination with the drop in humidity values, we decided not to
issue a Fire Danger Statement as elevated fire danger criteria will
not be present at the same time. Nonetheless, we encourage emergency
managers and the general public to stay updated for any changes in
the forecast.

Heading into the weekend, a cold front will move south into the
Caribbean, developing a shearline north of Puerto Rico.
Additionally, a trough will approach the islands by Saturday morning
and persist throughout the day as it slowly moves westward. Model
guidance indicates precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 to 1.6
inches through Saturday night, with moisture extending up to
approximately 600 mb. This suggests a moderate to high potential for
shower development and vertical growth. Limited rainfall is expected
on Saturday, particularly over windward areas and in western to
southwestern Puerto Rico during the afternoon.

Maximum temperatures will generally remain in the 80s, with
localized low 90s in lower elevations. Higher elevations will
experience slightly cooler temperatures, primarily in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

Next week, the islands will experience an advective weather
pattern characterized by a mix of sunshine during the day and
mostly clear skies overnight, with occasional clouds. At times,
wind perturbations may bring surges of moisture, leading to rainy
conditions. According to the latest model forecasts, the days with
the highest moisture content are expected to be Tuesday and next
Thursday.

The interaction between an upper-level trough amplifying over the
western Caribbean and a ridge near the northeast Caribbean will
place Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands between these two
features. This weather pattern may lead to variable weather
conditions as perturbations arrive across the islands on Friday.

Winds will continue from the east to east-southeast next week,
increasing the likelihood of warmer temperatures, particularly in
the afternoons during peak heating times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06z TAFs)

All TAF sites should experience VFR conds. VCSH will move across
eastern Puerto Rico, potentially affecting JSJ and JPS from 21/10Z
to 21/14Z. After 21/15Z VCSH will affect JBQ. E winds should prevail
from 5-15 kt and occasional higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure across the central Atlantic will promote choppy seas
due to moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds across
the region today. Winds will shift from the east to the northeast as
the frontal boundary moves eastward across the western Atlantic. A
prefrontal trough will increase the potential for showers throughout
the weekend. Deteriorating marine conditions are anticipated for the
weekend due to a long- period northerly swell.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

We have a high risk of rip currents, as we expect life-threatening
rip currents to develop in exposed beaches of the PR and the
USVI's Atlantic Coastline today. The risk is moderate for the
weekend, as occasional rip currents will form, especially along
the north—and east-facing beaches; please exercise caution.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A prefrontal trough will pool additional moisture over the
islands today, increasing the potential for showery weather
throughout the weekend. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain
will produce ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas. A
northerly swell will produce life-threatening rip currents along
the north-facing beaches on Sunday. Expect a mixture of clear
skies and clouds, with limited trade wind showers early next week.
Trade wind disturbances may bring occasional pockets of moisture,
leading to daily rain, particularly in the windward areas.
Followed by afternoon convection due to variations in the sea
breeze across the western portions. Model guidance suggests a
moisture increase by the end of next week, with the proximity of
another prefrontal trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

During the night, a drier air mass settled over the region, bringing
fair weather with only a few clouds moving across the area. Some
light, brief showers moved across the local waters. Surface
observations registered overnight temperatures in the low to mid-70s
along coastal and lower elevation areas, and in the low 60s across
the mountains of Puerto Rico. Temperatures ranged in the 70s across
the U.S. Virgin Islands. The predominant winds were from the east,
around 10 knots or less.

That drier air mass will not last long, as a weak surface trough
will approach today, increasing moisture levels and, as a result,
bringing a better chance of showers. Latest model guidance indicates
precipitable water values ranging from seasonal to above normal for
this time of year, from 1.3 to 1.6 inches today and tonight.
Consequently, clouds and showery weather will be observed during the
day and night. In the afternoon, local effects will concentrate
heavier showers across the west-central and western municipalities
of Puerto Rico, with some models predicting rainfall accumulations
of up to 0.75 inches or more. While widespread flooding is not
anticipated, wet roads and localized ponding in low-lying areas
could occur. Residents and visitors are urged to exercise caution
while driving. Residents and visitors are urged to exercise caution
on the roads while driving.

Sunday will be more of a transition day, as the remnants of the
surface trough will remain close to the area. However, patches of
drier air embedded in the trade winds will result in intermittent
showers and limit widespread rain. For that reason, showers will be
limited to a few moving over eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, and stronger showers will develop in the afternoon (up to a
50% chance) across western Puerto Rico. Precipitable water values
are expected to drop below average for early next week, allowing
lower rain chances to start the week. Only a few isolated showers
are expected during the morning across windward sectors of the
islands, followed by limited afternoon convection.

Maximum temperatures will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s
in lower elevations. Higher elevations will experience slightly
cooler temperatures, primarily in the 70s to low 80s. Breezy winds
from the east will continue to dominate the short-term period.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

Next week, an advective weather pattern characterized by a mix of
sunshine during the day and mostly clear skies overnight, with
occasional clouds, will dominate the conditions. Occasional wind
perturbations will bring surges of moisture, leading to rainy
conditions. Most of the uncertainty is tight to the timing of
arrival of these perturbances, which model guidance tends to move
from one run to the other.

We observe a tendency to have east-to-east-southeast winds next
week, which will increase the likelihood of warmer temperatures,
particularly in the afternoons during peak heating times.

Additionally, by the end of the work week, Puerto Rico and the US
Virgin Islands will be in the middle of an upper-level trough
amplifying over the western Caribbean and a ridge near the
northeast Caribbean. Then, a prefrontal trough associated with
another frontal boundary moving from the western Atlantic near the
islands will pool additional moisture, which, if correct, may lead
to showery weather on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions should dominate across TAF sites for the next
hours. However, intermittent VCSH will filter across eastern Puerto
Rico today, affecting JSJ, IST, and ISX with possible brief periods
of MVFR conditions. After 22/17-18Z JBQ can experience VCSH. ESE
winds should prevail from 8-15 kt and occasional higher gusts,
particularly at TJPS and TJBQ. Winds will slow down everywhere after
22/22-23z, below 10 kts and become more variable.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will shift from the east to the northeast today as a frontal
boundary moves eastward across the western Atlantic. A prefrontal
trough will increase the potential for showers throughout the
weekend. A surface high pressure building across the Central Atlantic
will tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting moderate to
locally fresh winds early this upcoming week. Increasing winds and a
long period northerly swell will deteriorate marine conditions late
tonight into Sunday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

We are forecasting a moderate risk of rip currents today, with the
potential to observe occasional life-threatening rip currents
along the north and east-facing beaches of PR and the USVI. The
risk will increase to high by Sunday as a long-period northerly
swell results in the formation of life-threatening rip currents
along the north-facing beaches of PR; please exercise caution.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A northerly swell will produce life-threatening rip currents
along the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico today and Monday.
Also, large breaking waves of around 8 to 10 feet are possible
today along northern Puerto Rico. For that reason, a High Surf
Advisory is in effect until this afternoon. Southeasterly winds
return next week, promoting warmer than normal temperatures across
the lower elevations of the islands. Model guidance suggests an
better rain chances by the end of next week, as moisture content
increase with the proximity pre-frontal trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A variable weather pattern persisted during the overnight hours,
with isolated to scattered showers observed across the southeastern
coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Most frequent showers were observed
across the coastal local waters, briefly brushing some coastal areas
and leaving minimal rainfall accumulations. Overnight temperatures
were in the seasonal range, with the mid 70s across the coastal
areas and slightly cooler across the interior and mountains. Winds
remained from the east at 10 mph or less, with some gusty winds near
the strongest showers.

Although some moisture is moving at the northern over the Atlantic
waters, resulting in some showers during the morning, the rest of
the islands will continue to observe mostly sunny skies and limited
rainfall due to the lack of moisture, as suggested by the GOES
satellite-derived PWAT. In the afternoon hours, some showers cannot
be ruled out across the western interior due to the local and
diurnal effects, with minimal rainfall accumulations. For Tuesday,
winds will remain easterly, with mostly brief shallow patches of
moisture leaving the islands under a stable weather pattern. On
Tuesday, a building surface low over the western Atlantic will
enhance East-southeasterly winds across the islands, increasing low-
level moisture. While overall moisture content will remain shallow,
the frequency of trade wind showers will increase, particularly
across eastern Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and surrounding
waters during the morning, followed by afternoon activity over the
northwestern and interior sections of Puerto Rico. No significant
weather disturbances are expected, but isolated moderate showers may
develop in areas of enhanced convergence.

.LONG TERM...

Around midweek, variable conditions are expected, with patches of
moisture leading to rainy periods at times. Global models show
some discrepancies in terms of timing, but overall precipitable
water values are expected to range from seasonal to above normal
for this time of year, between 1.3 and 1.7 inches. Moderate
southeasterly winds (10-15 kt) will persist through the long-term
period, due to a front stretching from the southwestern Atlantic
into the north-central Atlantic, along with a surface high over
the central Atlantic. This shift in winds will likely lead to
warmer temperatures. By the end of the week into the weekend, a
wetter weather pattern is anticipated for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands due to the influence of an upper-level trough.
Additionally, a pre-frontal trough associated with another
frontal boundary moving from the western Atlantic will increase
moisture over the area, with precipitable water values expected to
range in the above normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Stable VFR conditions will persist across all TAF
sites during the period, providing a reliable basis for flight
planning. Winds will continue light and VRB until 23/15Z, before
shifting from the E at speeds of up to 15 knots, with sea breeze
variation and occasional gusts. VCSH & SHRA are forecasted near TJBQ
at 23/19Z due to aft conv, leading to lower ceilings and reduced VIS
along the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly winds will prevail today while a frontal boundary moves
eastward across the western Atlantic. A long period northerly swell
will deteriorate seas today with Small Craft Advisories in effect
for the Atlantic waters through at least tonight. A surface high
pressure building across the central Atlantic will tighten the local
pressure gradient, promoting moderate to locally fresh winds early
this upcoming week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A long-period northerly-northwesterly swell will be reaching the
local area today, Therefore, the is a High Risk of Rip Currents
along the northwestern, northern, and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico and the northnern USVI, Also, High Surf Advisory is
in effect until this afternoon for the same area as large
breaking waves up to 10 feet are possible in the local area today,
peaking at around noon.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
522 AM AST Mon Feb 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Today, a northerly swell will continue to produce large breaking
waves and life-threatening rip currents along the north-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern USVI through at
least this afternoon, conditions should gradually improve from
tonight onwards. Southeasterly winds return by midweek next week,
promoting warmer than normal temperatures across the lower
elevations of the islands. Model guidance suggests better rain
chances by the end of next week, as moisture content increase with
the proximity pre- frontal trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

A mostly stable weather pattern persisted overnight into the early
morning hours. Some brief isolated showers moved along the northern
and eastern coastal areas of Puerto Rico, leaving minimal rainfall
accumulations. Winds remained from the east at 10 knots with land-
sea breeze variation. Overnight minimum temperatures were in the mid
to upper 60s along the interior sections and in the low 70s across
the northern and southern coastal plains. Minimum temperatures for
the U.S. Virgin Islands were in the mid to upper 70s.

A mostly stable weather pattern will hold during the short-term
period under a broad surface high pressure along the Central
Atlantic extending into the Caribbean. This surface feature will
continue to create pressure in the pressure gradient, resulting in
moderate easterly winds across the islands. Today, a particularly
drier airmass will filter across the islands, limiting the frequency
and potential to observe widespread activity. Model guidance and
hires- The model shows a drier airmass moving across the islands
around 12 to 3 pm. This area will have no or limited showers and
suitable conditions for fire weather threats along the southern
coastal plains of Puerto Rico. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement
has been issued for the south of the coastal plains of Puerto Rico
from 10 am to 4 pm.

On Tuesday into Wednesday, winds will veer as a response to a
surface low pressure moving northward in the western Atlantic. This
surface wind change will impulse patches of moisture trap at 850-500
MB. As a result, more frequent passing showers will be the norm
along the islands, especially across an eastern section in the
morning/evening hours and across the interior and northwestern PR
for the afternoon hours. Although showers will be present, rainfall
accumulations should remain less than the threat to observed urban
flooding. Residents would expect mostly ponding of water in roadways
and poor drainage areas. 925 MB temperatures increase in the 75th
percentile for Wednesday, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures
across northern areas and valleys across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

The long term period will feature mostly variable conditions are
expected, with patches of moisture leading to rainy periods at
times. Moderate southeasterly winds (10-15 kt) will persist through
the long-term period, due to a front stretching from the southwestern
Atlantic into the north-central Atlantic, along with a surface
high building across the central Atlantic. This shift in winds
will likely lead to warmer temperatures, with model showing an
increasing tendency in the 925mb temperatures.

By Friday into Saturday, a wetter weather pattern is anticipated
for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to the influence
of an upper-level trough. Additionally, a prefrontal trough
associated with another frontal boundary moving from the western
Atlantic near the islands will pool increased moisture over the
area. Precipitable water values expected to range above average
for this time of year, between 1.5 to almost 2 inches, especially
Friday into Saturday. At the moment, Friday looks to be the
wettest day of the period. Sunday onwards, more typical and stable
days are expected as a drier airmass establish over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

VFR conditions will persist throughout the period along all TAF
sites. Winds will continue to light and VRB up to 10 knots,
increasing up to 15 knots from the east. Some VCSH to -SHRA will
develop over the mountains, near TJBQ at around 24/18Z, resulting in
brief periods of lower ceiling and reduced VIS.

&&

.MARINE...

A long period northerly swell will continue to promote hazardous
seas across the Atlantic waters through at least this afternoon. A
surface high pressure building across the central Atlantic will
tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting moderate to locally
fresh winds, however, moderate southeasterly winds will return around
midweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A long period northerly swell will continue to spread across the
Atlantic waters today and gradually fade from this evening
onward. This will promote dangerous breaking waves up to 10 feet
across the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico. Therefore, the High
Surf Advisory was extended until 6 PM AST this evening. Also,
there is a High Risk of Rip Currents along the northwestern,
northern, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St.
Thomas, and St. John through at least late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Today, a drier airmass will dominate across the islands, limiting
the frequency and potential to observe rain activity. Relative
humidity values are expected to drop into fire weather thresholds
values in isolated locations, especially across the southern
slopes. The rainfall deficit continues across PR's south-central
and western areas. Winds will be stronger too, coming out of the
east-southeast at 15 to 20 mph, with periods of stronger gusts. As
a result, a Fire Weather Statement has been issued today for the
south and west coast of Puerto Rico. Fire weather partners are
encouraged to monitor the forecast for any update.