SIO: VINCE - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane2022]

What

TPXS12 PGTW 071514

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 19.93S

D. 76.49E

E. TWO/MET9

F. T7.0/7.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET
YIELDS A 8.0. PT YIELDS A 7.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

System Information: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 280 km/h.

Estimated central pressure: 936 hPa.

Position on February 8 at 4 p.m. local time: 20.4 South / 72.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1725 km to the sector: EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 3020 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 15 km/h.

Key messages:

- VINCE remained an Intense Tropical Cyclone (ITC), despite some signs of weakening due to complex internal physical processes (ongoing eyewall replacement cycle). The eye of the cyclone is located less than 1000 km east of Rodrigues.

- Until Sunday, VINCE is expected to maintain a high intensity on a west to west-southwestward movement. On Sunday, while remaining more than 600 km east-southeast of Rodrigues, it is expected to make a turn towards the south while slowing down its course. It is then expected to continue to dive towards southern latitudes early next week while gradually weakening, before definitively losing its tropical characteristics in the middle of next week while crossing over cool waters.

- Even though VINCE is moving far from inhabited land, the cyclonic swell associated with the system is expected to generate dangerous seas around Rodrigues Island on Sunday. Residents are therefore advised to follow the evolution of the forecast through their national weather service.

[HurricaneRyan]

Vince serving us. Damn

[Hurricane2022]

Vince serving us. Damn

[Hurricane2022]

"Absolute Cinema"
- Scorsese, Martin.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1888596079379148939

[cycloneye]

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 220 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 953 hPa.

Position on February 10 at 4 p.m. local time: 23.8 South / 68.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1315 km in the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2730 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH, at 15 km/h.

Key messages:

- VINCE remains a tropical cyclone and continues its path towards the South. It is currently located more than 650km South-East of Rodrigues.

- VINCE continues its turn towards the south over the next 12 hours, moving away from Rodrigues Island for a long time. Thereafter, VINCE will continue its route towards southern latitudes while gradually weakening, definitively losing its tropical characteristics by Wednesday by crossing over much cooler and less energetic waters. During the night from Wednesday to Thursday, VINCE should circulate to the west of Amsterdam Island at the stage of extra-tropical depression.

[cycloneye]

Bye Vince. You did a great run.

System Information: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 971 hPa.

Position on February 12 at 04:00 local time: 30.0 South / 70.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1750 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 3220 km to the sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 20 km/h.