Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

The ICON has the storm now also.

[Harp.1]

Temps at the end of the ICON run look downright frigid!

[wxman22]

[wxman22]

The CMC is onboard now also.

[Stratton23]

Need to see that storm dig alot more to the SW on future trends

[Lagreeneyes03]

I'll take the Euro with a side of Icon to go, please.

[txtwister78]

Right now everything is too progressive. As long as that continues, you really won't be able to lock in sustained cold and perhaps a storm to go with it. AO is obviously cooperating but EPO is borderline so cold really doesn't have the staying power to produce something deep into Texas.

Next week is probably our last shot but 180-200 hours out still so once again chasing days. GFS already lost it but GEFS still looks cold. See if the Euro holds

[Stratton23]

Euro looks like cold again, blocking over central canda traps the cold air over the southern and eastern US

[txtwister78]

Euro looks like cold again

Outside of Oklahoma/Panhandle region, looks similar to the pattern we're in now. Brief shot of cold but transient. 0z run was colder but even that moderates during the day. PNA trending positive next week so that won't help.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 I mean the euro keeps us decently below normal beyond that cold blast , that blocking ridge in central canada will prevent the cold air from moving out too fast, in my opinion, i dont think this will be a crazy event, but any cold air will be better than the current temperatures are now lol

[wxman22]

Winter is still in full effect here at least.

[Stratton23]

Looking at the MJO progression on models, the GEFS/ ECCWF really want to slow down the MJO in phases 8/1 for the rest of the month, and even into middle march the MJO moves into phases 2/3 which are cold phases for march, just interesting to note that

[wxman22]

12z Euro

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 to be fair, regardless of how cold or how it lasts, ill take any cold air i can get, waking up at 9 am this morning and it was already in the mid 70’s, thats offensive lol!

[wxman57]

Hmm, what happened to the snow and ice across north Texas the 10th-12th that models were showing last week? Not much talk of that now. Not even a freeze in Houston on the 12Z EC. ICON has temps 10-12F up in the D-FW area in 7 days. Possibly a freeze here in Houston. Winter's last gasp over the next 2 weeks. My walls will hold.

MAWA!

[Stratton23]

Pretty good signal in the ensembles for some type of winter weather event across the state in the 9-10 day period, not a crazy signal, but definitely decently an active signal for some mischief

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 to be fair, regardless of how cold or how it lasts, ill take any cold air i can get, waking up at 9 am this morning and it was already in the mid 70’s, thats offensive lol!

Just delaying the inevitable but yeah I get you. My thinking is a bit reversed in that if its going to be cold, I'd rather have something to talk about with it (preferably snow obviously) otherwise let's just get Spring started already. January was our month. This looks more like nuisance cold to me with warm up's in between further south.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hmm, what happened to the snow and ice across north Texas the 10th-12th that models were showing last week? Not much talk of that now. Not even a freeze in Houston on the 12Z EC. ICON has temps 10-12F up in the D-FW area in 7 days. Possibly a freeze here in Houston. Winter's last gasp over the next 2 weeks. My walls will hold.

MAWA!

NCTX will be in the mid to upper 20s Wednesday and Thursday over night, going to be a couple of frosty mornings for sure. CPC 8-14 day outlook has NTX 40-50% below normal temps, and 40-50% above normal precipitation February 18th-24th

February will finish on the chilly/wet side of life.

[rwfromkansas]

Man, wish I was living in Kansas still with their crazy winter. Been the first above-normal snowfall seasons in many years where they got almost nothing. Lol

I am hoping we can squeeze out some flakes one last time here, but honestly, have a feeling it will be an OK event.

[Wthrfan]

Looking at the MJO progression on models, the GEFS/ ECCWF really want to slow down the MJO in phases 8/1 for the rest of the month, and even into middle march the MJO moves into phases 2/3 which are cold phases for march, POW has march being below average and im seeing enough support for that idea, im banking on it

I like a cold winter, but once March rolls around, I'm ready for it to warm up!