SIO: ZELIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Feb 12, 2025 12:24 pm

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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Tropical Cyclone

#22 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Feb 12, 2025 1:04 pm

Not even a day ago it had one of the most over exaggerated CCC patterns I’ve seen, and now it’s undergoing ERI with a Dvorak appearance that even puts Ilsa ‘23’s satellite appearance to shame :double:

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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Feb 12, 2025 1:15 pm

WaveBreaking wrote:Not even a day ago it had one of the most over exaggerated CCC patterns I’ve seen, and now it’s undergoing ERI with a Dvorak appearance that even puts Ilsa ‘23’s satellite appearance to shame :double:

https://i.imgur.com/oP6x2iE.png

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1889737913996316938


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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Tropical Cyclone

#24 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 12, 2025 2:02 pm

17S ZELIA 250212 1800 19.2S 118.3E SHEM 85 964
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 12, 2025 3:15 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1934 UTC 12/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.1S
Longitude: 118.4E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (242 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots (220 km/h)
Central Pressure: 952 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 85 nm (155 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0.D2.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 13/0000: 19.2S 118.1E: 020 (040): 100 (185): 939
+12: 13/0600: 19.3S 117.9E: 030 (055): 110 (205): 928
+18: 13/1200: 19.3S 117.8E: 040 (070): 110 (205): 927
+24: 13/1800: 19.4S 117.8E: 045 (080): 110 (205): 927
+36: 14/0600: 20.1S 118.2E: 085 (155): 110 (205): 929
+48: 14/1800: 21.0S 118.7E: 120 (225): 065 (120): 970
+60: 15/0600: 22.7S 118.8E: 140 (260): 035 (065): 993
+72: 15/1800: 24.3S 119.0E: 165 (305): 030 (055): 995
+96: 16/1800: 26.9S 119.7E: 200 (375): 025 (045): 997
+120: 17/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical cyclone Zelia is rapidly intensifying as it moves slowly west,
just off the Pilbara coast. Port Hedland radar shows improving definition in
the eye wall, infra-red imagery shows very cold cloud tops surrounding an
emerging pinhole eye with a period of high lightning activity in the inner
core.

Intensity set at 85kn consistent with subjective Dvorak but on the high side of
most objective guidance. Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=5.0 based on DT=5.5 eye pattern
-CMG surround (5.5) and W/CMG eye(-1.0) correction. Adjusted MET is 4.5 based
on D+ 24h trend and PAT +0.5 adjustment. Note: 12UTC Dvorak FT revised to 4.0.
Objective estimates: CIMSS SATCON 80kn at 1420UTC, ADT 82 kn, AIDT 91kn, DPRINT
85kn, DMINT 69kn (all 1-minute mean).

The environment is now very favourable for intensification. CIMSS wind shear
has reduced to 10kn with strong upper outflow and divergence particularly on
the poleward side associated with an upper trough to the south; sea surface
temperatures are extremely warm (above 31C). There is some drier air in the
mid-levels to the west of Zelia, though this is generally forecast to stay to
the west and is not expected to limit intensification before landfall. The
current period of rapid intensification takes Zelia to 110 kn within 6-18h
(category 5) ahead of landfall. There is likely to be some subsequent variation
through to landfall in 36-48h.

The track should be slow moving in the next 12-24h as Zelia is currently
located in a col with mid-level anticyclones to the east and west, and an upper
trough passing to the south, providing balanced steering influences. By Friday
the weakened westward anticyclone will steer Zelia southwards to landfall.
Guidance is split on the timing of this occurrence, with some suggesting weak
ridging to the south of the system beforehand, which will drag it further west
delaying landfall to Saturday.
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Feb 12, 2025 5:01 pm

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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#27 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Feb 12, 2025 5:05 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What the heck. :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/OKSCgZj.png

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1888966830779236830



Very Hot take here. I think that future STC Zelia will peak at around 75 - 180 mph before landfall. :sun:

HAFS-A WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING
Image
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Feb 12, 2025 5:30 pm

Zelia feels like Australia’s version of Milton
Image
Image
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Feb 12, 2025 5:36 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Feb 12, 2025 5:41 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 FEB 2025 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 19:08:59 S Lon : 118:20:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 953.5mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 7.0


Raw Ts already up to 7.0 :double:
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Feb 12, 2025 5:52 pm

:double: :craz: :shoot: :onfire:

LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND
132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: UPDATED FORECAST INTENSITY BASED ON
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IDENTIFIED THROUGH THE ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SHOWING SMALL AND SYMMETRICAL EYE, AS
WELL AS THE DVORAK DT-NUMBERS FROM PGTW (7.0) AND CIMSS (7.0).

FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO PROBABILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.//


24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.5S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Wed Feb 12, 2025 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Feb 12, 2025 5:52 pm

Currently N of JTWC’s best track, meaning that it’ll probably spend more time over the rocket fuel 31C waters before it makes landfall.
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:29 pm

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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:43 pm

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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 12, 2025 8:00 pm

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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 12, 2025 8:17 pm

17S ZELIA 250213 0000 19.1S 118.2E SHEM 115 944
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Feb 12, 2025 8:26 pm

Not only is Zelia sitting over absolutely nuclear SSTs with high OHC and very low shear, but it’s also getting ventilation from a passing extratropical cyclone and its attendant trough.

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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 12, 2025 8:28 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0119 UTC 13/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.0S
Longitude: 118.1E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots (260 km/h)
Central Pressure: 941 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 85 nm (155 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS SST:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm (390 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 13/0600: 19.1S 118.0E: 025 (040): 110 (205): 930
+12: 13/1200: 19.2S 117.9E: 030 (055): 110 (205): 930
+18: 13/1800: 19.4S 117.9E: 040 (075): 110 (205): 930
+24: 14/0000: 19.8S 117.9E: 045 (080): 110 (205): 931
+36: 14/1200: 20.6S 118.1E: 085 (155): 100 (185): 941
+48: 15/0000: 22.0S 118.0E: 130 (240): 045 (085): 988
+60: 15/1200: 23.7S 117.9E: 150 (275): 030 (055): 998
+72: 16/0000: 25.1S 117.5E: 160 (295): 030 (055): 997
+96: 17/0000: 27.1S 118.1E: 200 (370): 025 (045): 999
+120: 18/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical cyclone Zelia is is rapidly intensifying with very strong
convection surrounding a warm eye. Zelia is slow moving off the Pilbara coast
north of Port Hedland with heavy rainfall in its eastern rainbands.

Position based on animated satellite and Port Hedland radar imagery with good
confidence. Intensity set at 100kn consistent with subjective Dvorak. Dvorak
analysis: FT/CI=6.0 based on DT=7.0 eye pattern with CMG surround (6.5) and
OW/CMG eye(+0.5) correction, but constrained by MET. Adjusted MET is 5.0 based
on D+ 24h trend and PAT +0.5 adjustment. Objective estimates: CIMSS SATCON
118kn at 0000UTC, ADT 109 kn, AIDT 114 kn, DPRINT 123 kn, DMINT 111 kn (all
1-minute mean).

The environment continues to be very favourable for intensification. CIMSS wind
shear is 10kn (18:00 UTC 12 January) with strong upper outflow and divergence
particularly on the poleward side associated with an upper trough to the south;
sea surface temperatures are extremely warm (above 31C). There is some drier
air in the mid-levels to the west of Zelia, though this is generally forecast
to stay to the west and is not expected to limit intensification before
landfall. The current period of rapid intensification takes Zelia to 110 kn
within 6-12 hours (category 5), ahead of landfall. There is likely to be some
subsequent variation through to landfall in 24-36 hours.

The track should be slow moving in the next 12-18 hours as Zelia is currently
located in a col with mid-level anticyclones to the east and west, and an upper
trough passing to the south, providing balanced steering influences. By Friday
the weakened westward anticyclone will steer Zelia southwards to landfall.
Guidance is split on the timing of this occurrence, with some suggesting weak
ridging to the south of the system beforehand, which will drag it further west
on delaying landfall to Saturday.
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Feb 12, 2025 8:35 pm

Signs of a moat + outer eyewall along with a warming CDO point to an EWRC happening soon. Most hurricane models show this EWRC being quick with Zelia becoming even stronger afterwards while drifting west.
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Re: SIO: ZELIA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Feb 12, 2025 8:59 pm

:double: :double:
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