SIO: ZELIA - Post-Tropical

[MarioProtVI]

Zelia really giving Inigo 2003 a run for their money here.

[MarioProtVI]

:double:
https://imageshack.com/i/pmdwQZYfg

That’s insane and to think the only other time this intensity was reached was Monica 2006..

[Subtrop]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia 18U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 205 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 285 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 19.1 degrees South 118.1 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 225 kilometres northeast of Karratha.

Movement: slow moving.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia (category 5) is slow moving to the north of Port Hedland, forecast to move south to the coast on Friday. Destructive wind gusts are likely for communities on the Pilbara coast from as early as Friday morning but more likely later on Friday as Zelia nears the coast. The very destructive inner core of the cyclone will most likely cross the coast between De Grey and Karratha on Friday night. Heavy rainfall is expected on the coast during the next couple of days. Rainfall will become intense near and to the east of the centre of the cyclone as it crosses the coast.

[Hurricane2022]

It seems that Shear increased slightly while Zelia was trying to complete an EWRC. Good news for Australia

[Hurricane2022]

REMARKS:
Severe Tropical cyclone Zelia is undergoing eye wall replacement and the
intensification has slowed. Zelia remains slow moving off the Pilbara coast
north of Port Hedland.

Position based on animated satellite and Port Hedland radar imagery with good
confidence. Intensity set at 110kn consistent with SATCON. Dvorak analysis:
FT/CI=6.0 based on DT with eye pattern with CMG surround and B eye (-0.5
adjustment) and no longer breaking FT constraints. Adjusted MET is 5.5 based on
D+ 24h trend and PAT +0.5 adjustment. Objective estimates: CIMSS SATCON 116kn
at 0400UTC, ADT 129 kn, AIDT 123 kn, DPRINT 130 kn, DMINT 117 kn (all 1-minute
mean). A RCM2 SAR pass at 2133 UTC had 1-min mean maximum wind speed of about
120 knots.

The environment continues to be very favourable for intensification. CIMSS wind
shear is 11kn (00:00 UTC) with strong upper dual outflow channels, stronger on
the southern side associated with an upper trough; sea surface temperatures are
the warmest on record for any January at 32C! There is some drier air in the
mid-levels to the west of Zelia, though this is generally forecast to stay to
the west and is not expected to limit intensification before landfall. MPERC
guidance and radar imagery suggests Zelia is undergoing an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) which suggests the intensity is likely to plateau for the next 6-12
hours. Zelia is forecast to re-intensify to 120 knots during Friday after this
ERC is complete.

The track should be slow moving in the next 12 hours as Zelia is currently
located in a col with mid-level anticyclones to the east and west, and an upper
trough passing to the south, providing balanced steering influences. By Friday
the weakened westward anticyclone will steer Zelia southwards to landfall, with
landfall likely Friday night. Another scenario has weak ridging to the south of
the system which will drag it further west, with a delayed landfall on
Saturday.

[kevin]

The eye is starting to clear again.

[cycloneye]

17S ZELIA 250213 1200 19.3S 118.2E SHEM 130 923

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1890027717573095496

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1309 UTC 13/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 118.2E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (163 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots (285 km/h)
Central Pressure: 928 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (15 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 13/1800: 19.4S 118.1E: 025 (040): 115 (215): 923
+12: 14/0000: 19.6S 118.0E: 030 (055): 115 (215): 923
+18: 14/0600: 20.1S 118.0E: 045 (085): 120 (220): 919
+24: 14/1200: 20.7S 118.1E: 060 (110): 100 (185): 939
+36: 15/0000: 22.3S 117.8E: 080 (150): 045 (085): 986
+48: 15/1200: 24.1S 117.2E: 095 (180): 030 (055): 996
+60: 16/0000: 25.5S 116.5E: 110 (205): 030 (055): 994
+72: 16/1200: 26.4S 116.6E: 120 (220): 025 (045): 996
+96: 17/1200: : : :
+120: 18/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia did not complete an eye wall replacement cycle
that was indicated earlier in the day, and the inner eye wall has since
consolidated further. Zelia remains slow moving off the Pilbara coast north of
Port Hedland.

Position based on animated satellite and Port Hedland radar imagery with very
good confidence. Intensity set at 110kn, consistent with Dvorak analysis and
objective aids. Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=6.5 based on DT with eye pattern with W
surround and an OW eye (+0.5 adjustment). Adjusted MET is 5.5 based on D+ 24h
trend and PAT +0.5 adjustment. Objective estimates (at 1130 UTC unless
otherwise stated): CIMSS SATCON 110kn at 0730UTC, ADT 129 kn, AIDT 119 kn,
DPRINT 124 kn, DMINT 129 kn at 1036 UTC (all 1-minute mean).

The environment continues to be very favourable for intensification. CIMSS wind
shear is 13kn (06:00 UTC) with strong upper dual outflow channels, and expected
to become stronger on the southern side associated with an approaching upper
trough. Sea surface temperatures are abnormally warm at 32C. There is some
drier air in the mid-levels to the west and north of Zelia, though it is
unlikely to impact the core and is not expected to limit intensification before
landfall. Zelia is forecast to intensify to 120 knots before landfall during
Friday afternoon or evening.

The track should be slow moving in the next 6-12 hours as Zelia is currently
located in a col with mid-level anticyclones to the east and west, and an upper
trough passing to the south, providing balanced steering influences. During
Friday morning weakening of the anticyclone to the west, will allow Zelia to be
steered southwards to landfall. Zelia is forecast to weaken at a standard rate
as it moves inland, and should drop below tropical cyclone intensity by later
on Saturday.

[WaveBreaking]

That inner eyewall refuses to give up

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1890092956067197276

[ElectricStorm]

What happened to the Navy best track site? Keep getting 403 forbidden

[WaveBreaking]

What happened to the Navy best track site? Keep getting 403 forbidden

I was wondering the same thing too. Hoping it wasn’t taken down or something.

[cycloneye]

What happened to the Navy best track site? Keep getting 403 forbidden

I have this one that is still working, and hopefully it will continue to be up.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[WaveBreaking]

Slowly drifting SE towards the coast. EWRC is really taking a toll on the storm’s satellite presentation.

[cycloneye]

Bureau of Meteorology
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, a category 5 system, is moving to the south south-east and expected to make landfall this afternoon near or to the east of Port Hedland.
Very destructive wind gusts up of up to 290 kilometres per hour are likely close to the centre of the cyclone as it crosses the coast later this afternoon. Destructive wind gusts of up to 160 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas east of Whim Creek to De Grey, including Port Hedland by early afternoon.
Heavy to locally intense rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is likely today across coastal and adjacent inland areas between Wallal Downs and Karratha, extending inland to Nullagine and Tom Price by early Saturday. Flood Watches and Warnings are also current for catchments in the Pilbara, western Kimberley and northern Gascoyne
Residents in Port Hedland and east to Wallal Downs are specifically warned of the potential of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. However, the more recent motion to the south-east decreases the risk of the storm tide at Port Hedland for the noon high today. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
Zelia will then take a general southerly track overland and gradually weaken.

[cycloneye]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has crossed the Pilbara coast and made landfall
54km northeast of Port Hedland at high end category 4 intensity (105kn).

Port Hedland radar continues to show a well-defined centre with multiple rain
bands extending well to the south over land.

Intensity set at 95kn, consistent with Dvorak analysis but now a little lower
than objective aids. Dvorak analysis could be performed due to little or no
immediate change in the cloud structure.

Dvorak analysis (final one as now over land): FT/CI=5.0/5.5 based on DT=5.0
using eye pattern with W surround and an B eye temp. Adjusted MET is 5.0 based
on W 24h trend. Objective estimates: CIMSS SATCON 101kn, AIDT 101 kn, DPRINT 98
kn (all 1-minute mean).

Zelia is expected to lose its structure and weaken rapidly in the next 12 to 24
hours to be below cyclone intensity as it moves further inland. Steering is
expected to remain towards the south overland due to the influence of a
mid-level anticyclone to the east of the system.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1250 UTC 14/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.9S
Longitude: 119.5E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (151 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (15 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 14/1800: 21.5S 119.6E: 030 (050): 055 (100): 976
+12: 15/0000: 22.3S 119.5E: 035 (065): 045 (085): 984
+18: 15/0600: 23.2S 119.2E: 055 (105): 035 (065): 991
+24: 15/1200: 24.0S 119.0E: 070 (130): 030 (055): 994
+36: 16/0000: 25.4S 118.3E: 095 (170): 025 (045): 996
+48: 16/1200: : : :
+60: 17/0000: : : :
+72: 17/1200: : : :
+96: 18/1200: : : :
+120: 19/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia is moving inland through the eastern Pilbara and
steadily weakening.

Port Hedland radar showed a well-defined eye until around 1000 UTC, however
that has since weakened. Confidence is position remains good, but is likely to
decrease as Zelia tracks further inland.

Intensity set at 70kn, which is consistent with standard inland decay. Surface
observations at Marble Bar and Ironbridge Airport have been used for the
southern gale radii. Destructive wind gusts are possible at Marble Bar in the
next few hours, but are yet to be observed.

As Zelia is over land, Dvorak analysis and objective aids are no longer valid.

Zelia is expected to continue weakening as it moves southerly and further
inland. It is currently expected to drop below tropical cyclone intensity by
midday Saturday.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1890437244852318289

[cycloneye]

Bye.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1913 UTC 14/02/2025
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 21.4S
Longitude: 119.6E
Location Accuracy: within 60nm (110 km)
Movement Towards: south (174 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm (130 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 15/0000: 22.2S 119.6E: 070 (130): 030 (055): 996
+12: 15/0600: 23.1S 119.5E: 065 (120): 030 (055): 996
+18: 15/1200: 24.1S 119.3E: 070 (125): 030 (055): 996
+24: 15/1800: 25.0S 119.0E: 070 (130): 030 (055): 995
+36: 16/0600: : : :
+48: 16/1800: : : :
+60: 17/0600: : : :
+72: 17/1800: : : :
+96: 18/1800: : : :
+120: 19/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Zelia is dissipating over the inland Pilbara.

Deep convection has become completely absent from the remnants of Ex-Tropical
Cyclone Zelia. Confidence in the analysis position is poor. Due to the lack of
convection, the circulation is not evident on Port Hedland radar despite being
within range. The low-level circulation is also difficult to locate on IR
satellite imagery.

Intensity set at 30kn based on surface observations at Marble Bar and