Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman57]

Models still indicate only a light freeze here in Houston next Thursday. As usual, Canadian is ridiculously cold, as it was for the snow event. It had us down to 4 degrees back then and we reached only the lower 20s. ICON now dropped the freeze for Houston. GFS is likely too warm, with Euro a little too cold. I'll plot one for D-FW with 12Z models.

Once again, links below are to images on my GoDaddy account. Completely safe. You won't be converted to a warm-mongerer if you visit them (maybe).

https://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZFeb14.jpg

[orangeblood]

Sorry wxman57, but you're down playing this one a little too much IMHO....A potential Record Breaking cold snap is on the table for next week!! 1055 plus HP in the plains funneling directing into Texas with a stout US snowpack

Record Low Max Temp for DFW is 31F on Wednesday Feb 19th along with a Record Low Min of 19F on Thursday Feb 20th. Both could be in jeopardy! Not only that but the 2nd lowest temperature recorded at DFW in the past 30 years could also be in jeopardy...outside of the -2F set in 2021, the 2nd lowest was 11F set in 2022 & 2023. Have to go all the way back to 1996 to find anything lower (8F). This isn't your typical seasonal arctic outbreak, this one could be historic!



Euro high temps for Wednesday


Euro low temps Thursday morning

[wxman22]

Don’t be surprised to see the GFS trend back wetter as many of its ensemble members show freezing rain down to I-20. Like the EURO shows.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-te ... ruary-2021

[orangeblood]

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-texas-freeze-february-2021

Thanks for sharing! Reiterates, as Ntxw has pointed out, the negative AO is by far the biggest influencing factor for historic cold in our part of the world!

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Significant cold air outbreak mid next week.

Surface trough and coastal low forming off the lower Texas coast will move northeast allowing a warm front to move into the area late tonight into Saturday. A few scattered showers may develop this afternoon ahead of the warm front into tonight. A cold front will then move across the area quickly Saturday afternoon and evening. While decent moisture does return to the area tonight and Saturday it appears the main lift will be well to the northeast of our local area and that a thin line of showers and thunderstorms will form as the front crosses the region. Highest chances for thunderstorms will be northeast of the Houston metro area and can’t totally rule out an isolated severe storm…but this threat is much higher to the east of our local area.

Northerly winds will drive temperatures into the 30’s for many areas by Sunday morning and possible for freezing conditions (light freeze) for areas north of I-10 on Monday morning.

Next system approaches the area Tuesday into Wednesday with another round of showers followed by an intrusion of cold arctic air.

Mid Next Week:
Upper air pattern will buckle allowing a large sprawling 1055mb+ arctic high pressure system to descend southward down the plains and deep into TX. Temperatures of -35F to -45F along the Canadian border early next week plunge southward down the plains with an arctic front plowing across Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. This looks to be a classic southern plains cold air outbreak with arctic air mass plunging southward along the higher terrain of the Rockies and mountains of northeast MX. While the overall pattern supports a significant intrusion of cold air into the area mid next week…there remains uncertainty on how intensity the cold air mass will be and how low temperatures will fall. Current indications suggest a hard freeze over much of the area by next Thursday morning (2/20) with freezing temperatures down to the coast. When combined with strong northerly winds wind chills will fall toward dangerously low levels in the 1’s and 10’s.

If this forecast continues to hold through the weekend cold weather precautions will be needed for the middle of next week.

As for any winter precipitation…it appears that rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday will end prior to any freezing/sub-freezing conditions although this is still several days out, and only slight timing differences could allow precipitation to linger longer in the increasingly cold air mass. For now, do not expect any freezing/frozen precipitation in our local area.

[wxman22]

6z Euro We’re now within 120 hours…

[orangeblood]

6z Euro We’re now within 120 hours…

Good time to start tracking global model performance particularly within 120 hours...pretty obvious who the glaring outlier is!

Euro qpf


CMC qpf


GFS qpf

[cajungal]

Husband leaves for Houston for work Monday-Friday for work. Told him to make sure he brings his coat. I wonder how much of this will shift to me in SE Louisiana.

[orangeblood]

Husband leaves for Houston for work Monday-Friday for work. Told him to make sure he brings his coat. I wonder how much of this will shift to me in SE Louisiana.

SE Louisiana should be spared this time around, biggest threat for frozen precip are N/2 of Texas and Louisiana. Although, there is a small chance you could get clipped with frozen precip late Wednesday into Thursday morning

[Ntxw]

ICON is further north with the S/W so dry but really cold except for Oklahoma northeastward.

[orangeblood]

ICON is further north with the S/W so dry but really cold except for Oklahoma northeastward.

Would break the Feb 19th DFW record for both low min and max

[Ntxw]

ICON is further north with the S/W so dry but really cold except for Oklahoma northeastward.

Took a closer look at 500mb while yes it's further north and dry for us, it's actually a solution that wouldn't mind going to as long as the S/W digs further south in real time because there is connection with the northern stream. Thus the more significant snow storm in NE OK and Missouri. Take that a few hundred miles more south.

[GeauxTigers]

Yea, really wanting to see more precip opportunities on the models for NTX. Definitely gonna be cold, though.

[Gotwood]

6z Euro We’re now within 120 hours…

Good time to start tracking global model performance particularly within 120 hours...pretty obvious who the glaring outlier is!

Euro qpf
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/precip_48hr_inch/1739512800/1740031200-qfG9mZWMjXY.png

CMC qpf
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/precip_48hr_inch/1739491200/1740031200-3XZH5ikWIrw.png

GFS qpf
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/precip_48hr_inch/1739512800/1740031200-BEQoIk9pPjk.png

Icon looking a lot like the GFS now in the precipitation department. I will go ahead and say judging by how things have played out this year I would side with the more eastern solution. Especially with the + PNA. This is looking like another brutal dry cold shot.

[orangeblood]

ICON is further north with the S/W so dry but really cold except for Oklahoma northeastward.

Took a closer look at 500mb while yes it's further north and dry for us, it's actually a solution that wouldn't mind going to as long as the S/W digs further south in real time because there is connection with the northern stream. Thus the more significant snow storm in NE OK and Missouri. Take that a few hundred miles more south.

Euro ensembles are all over the southerly route with the s/w....trending wetter late Tuesday into Wednesday. There's a cluster of dry solutions but they are becoming the minority with each run

[Ntxw]

ICON is further north with the S/W so dry but really cold except for Oklahoma northeastward.

Took a closer look at 500mb while yes it's further north and dry for us, it's actually a solution that wouldn't mind going to as long as the S/W digs further south in real time because there is connection with the northern stream. Thus the more significant snow storm in NE OK and Missouri. Take that a few hundred miles more south.

Euro ensembles are all over the southerly route with the s/w....trending wetter late Tuesday into Wednesday. There's a cluster of dry solutions but they are becoming the minority with each run

Personally I want the TPV to stay open a little longer, we have the big high in the right place, its been trending westward upstream (Montana getting brutally cold) that way there can at least be a partial phase. surface doesn't really do much for me right now if you get the right upper features it will come. But for sure the record cold temps relative to time of month is looking likely. Of course we all want to know if it will snow.

[orangeblood]

6z Euro We’re now within 120 hours…

Good time to start tracking global model performance particularly within 120 hours...pretty obvious who the glaring outlier is!

Euro qpf
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/precip_48hr_inch/1739512800/1740031200-qfG9mZWMjXY.png

CMC qpf
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/precip_48hr_inch/1739491200/1740031200-3XZH5ikWIrw.png

GFS qpf
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/precip_48hr_inch/1739512800/1740031200-BEQoIk9pPjk.png

Icon looking a lot like the GFS now in the precipitation department. I will go ahead and say judging by how things have played out this year I would side with the more eastern solution. Especially with the + PNA. This is looking like another brutal dry cold shot.

The +PNA isn't much of a factor Tuesday/Wednesday, slightly positive. This is more related to the tpv across the north and how much it influences the s/w moving thru the rockies

[Ntxw]

850mb temps anomaly is a good way to see cold air damming and how it's working that gives us confidence from awhile back a significant cold event was coming. The retrogression of the -AO blocking from Greenland, the Arctic through the Davis Straits to Hudson Bay bulldozing the cold to pool up against the Rocky Mountains like a wall. Gravity forces it south, if you get a winding TPV it's like a magnet that drags some cold with it. But generally this is why the severe -AO episodes tends to bring big cold in Jan and Feb.

[Ntxw]

Look at what the GFS has been trending for Montana.