Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Iceresistance]

KFOR is now forecasting lows BELOW ZERO next week!


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/bS2As.png

[HockeyTx82]

KFOR is now forecasting lows BELOW ZERO next week!

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/bS2As.png
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/bS2As.png

I wonder what that means if for North Texas? I mean the barbed wire fence can stop some of the cold air right?

[Ntxw]

If you thought the CMC was crazy before with temps, it's even crazier now this 12z.

Moral of the story here is upstream it's trending colder in Montana, WY and areas further west. We won't know the breath of true cold until it pools up there, it's looking a doozy further north. Snow or no snow, the potential is there for this to be the coldest, this late benchmark for many.

[Gotwood]

KFOR is now forecasting lows BELOW ZERO next week!

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/bS2As.png
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/bS2As.png

I wonder what that means if for North Texas? I mean the barbed wire fence can stop some of the cold air right?

I would say it all depends on snow pack

[Iceresistance]

If you thought the CMC was crazy before with temps, it's even crazier now this 12z.

Moral of the story here is upstream it's trending colder in Montana, WY and areas further west. We won't know the breath of true cold until it pools up there, it's looking a doozy further north. Snow or no snow, the potential is there for this to be the coldest, this late benchmark for many.

Also mention 1060mb HP in Montana

[Ntxw]

If you thought the CMC was crazy before with temps, it's even crazier now this 12z.

Moral of the story here is upstream it's trending colder in Montana, WY and areas further west. We won't know the breath of true cold until it pools up there, it's looking a doozy further north. Snow or no snow, the potential is there for this to be the coldest, this late benchmark for many.

Also mention 1060mb HP in Montana

I don't think we've seen a verified 1060mb in Montana since 1983. We've seen modeled 1060s, I'm not sure even 1055 has verified yet if anyone else knows that's not some high peak in the Rockies.

[txtwister78]

12z CMC moved a little more toward the GFS in regard to QPF next week so not much of an outlier now. ICON continues to be dry. Next up Euro.

[Stratton23]

dry solutions suck

[Ralph's Weather]

12z CMC moved a little more toward the GFS in regard to QPF next week so not much of an outlier now. ICON continues to be dry. Next up Euro.

QPF will shift many times, we know we will be cold and we know there will be a short wave. That equals chances for winter precip. We can start paying attention to QPF location starting Monday or so.

[Ntxw]

dry solutions suck

Unfortunately the colder the models trend the drier they will look. Too much blistering .

[txtwister78]

12z CMC moved a little more toward the GFS in regard to QPF next week so not much of an outlier now. ICON continues to be dry. Next up Euro.

QPF will shift many times, we know we will be cold and we know there will be a short wave. That equals chances for winter precip. We can start paying attention to QPF location starting Monday or so.

I was mainly referring to post made earlier about outliers. Yes, we will see some subtle shifts back and forth between now and then but the colder this gets, the less bullish I am about precip as air will be very dry and unless we see a stronger SW or has others have mentioned it slows down significantly which seems less likely as these like to ride the arctic boundary, I am more inclined to think the GFS solution may very well verify.

[Gotwood]

12z CMC moved a little more toward the GFS in regard to QPF next week so not much of an outlier now. ICON continues to be dry. Next up Euro.

QPF will shift many times, we know we will be cold and we know there will be a short wave. That equals chances for winter precip. We can start paying attention to QPF location starting Monday or so.

I was mainly referring to post made earlier about outliers. Yes, we will see some subtle shifts back and forth between now and then but the colder this gets, the less bullish I am about precip as air will be very dry and unless we see a stronger SW or has others have mentioned it slows down significantly which seems less likely as these like to ride the arctic boundary, I am more inclined to think the GFS solution may very well verify.

This winter has really been the what could have been. So many close calls yet I’ve received 1/2 inch of snow/sleet at my place all winter.

[Ntxw]

Euro is a lot of dry cold. -30F+ departures for most of the state. Oklahoma is -45Fs below normal.

[Stratton23]

Euro run sucks, as much as i love the cold, arctic cold but no precipitation is just wasted cold, send that stuff back up to the north pole if its gonna be dry

[txtwister78]

QPF will shift many times, we know we will be cold and we know there will be a short wave. That equals chances for winter precip. We can start paying attention to QPF location starting Monday or so.

I was mainly referring to post made earlier about outliers. Yes, we will see some subtle shifts back and forth between now and then but the colder this gets, the less bullish I am about precip as air will be very dry and unless we see a stronger SW or has others have mentioned it slows down significantly which seems less likely as these like to ride the arctic boundary, I am more inclined to think the GFS solution may very well verify.

This winter has really been the what could have been. So many close calls yet I’ve received 1/2 inch of snow/sleet at my place all winter.

Yeah, similar here in January but then again, getting some snow to fall at all down my way isn't your typical winter for folks across this region and so I count this year more as a win I guess considering we got some snow in terms of the alternative most winters which for us is typically a week or two of real cold and that's about it. January was very cold overall and now we get another shot in February, but to your point you hate to waste cold in Texas if it isn't snowing.

Unfortunately, across Texas, we often get most of the ingredients right, but we typically end up missing one during these cold outbreaks. Either too cold/dry, not enough cold or the moisture is just plain lacking overall. Really need southern branch help for these events and that doesn't look to be in the cards.

[txtwister78]

Yup...everything trending toward GFS solution QPF wise. Imagine that.

[Ntxw]

Euro run sucks, as much as i love the cold, arctic cold but no precipitation is just wasted cold, send that stuff back up to the north pole if its gonna be dry

Euro 500mb still is not terrible though. In fact for your IMBY interests having shortwave come out like that isn't a complete shutdown. There is time still my friend, just find the moisture at the surface.

[Cpv17]

Euro run sucks, as much as i love the cold, arctic cold but no precipitation is just wasted cold, send that stuff back up to the north pole if its gonna be dry

I’ll take the dry cold, especially if it goes to extreme levels.

[txtwister78]

Ready for this honestly after this final cold shot. Bring on Spring and hopefully more rain.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw i hope so, dont want this to be like december 2022 where everything got suppressed because it was too cold, if its like youre typical winter cold front ( highs in the 50’s and 60’s) i wouldnt mind it being dry, but when its a major arctic front, you just hate to see it be bone dry when you definitely have the cold air needed if their was any moisture around