Texas Winter 2024-2025

[GeauxTigers]

dry solutions suck

Unfortunately the colder the models trend the drier they will look. Too much blistering .

BOOOOOO!

[JayDT]

Some on here haven’t even been bullish on the possibility of the cold making it down here next week..

Also, I think while we are constantly reminded of the times the models have been colder than what actually verifies. We should also remember the multiple times these past couple of weeks where the models have been way warmer than what actually verifies.

So obviously anything is possible… It is winter and the potential for big cold is there, how cold remains to be seen. There’s also the potential for some precip, maybe. It is winter right now, so lets enjoy the potential, and keep learning about these scenarios. And for the people that enjoy the warmer weather, y’all have about 300 days out of each year to enjoy that Let those of us who enjoy winter and cold actually enjoy the season

[Ntxw]

Ntxw i hope so, dont want this to be like december 2022 where everything got suppressed because it was too cold, if its like youre typical winter cold front ( highs in the 50’s and 60’s) i wouldnt mind it being dry, but when its a major arctic front, you just hate to see it be bone dry when you definitely have the cold air needed if their was any moisture around

Yeah I'd love for it to snow too. But it hasn't happened yet, and there is more time it could change still. I remember 2022, the northern stream was the only source for lift and it ejected out along I-40 so snow was north of there. So as long as you have a shortwave ejecting much further south can still trend better. The trend hasn't been good at the surface. There's no doubt about the cold now at least.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of cold, it does appear pattern recognition will have been another success story using the broader teleconnections this winter.

AO reading as of today is -4.7 we are almost there to the coveted -5 with one or two more days to fall. Should the cold records be broken for the time of year/coldest late it will be within the historical context of the really big -AO.

MJO P8, we have seen cold/warm periods follow the MJO trajectory pretty well this season, did not need modeling to tell you when the cold/warm ups would be. One caveat the models have been poor in trying to send the MJO into the cod extended.



P 2-3 in early March is cold.

[Quixotic]

I trust the MJO more than anything else. Everything is downstream from that. Just a matter of placement and strength.

[Ntxw]

I trust the MJO more than anything else. Everything is downstream from that. Just a matter of placement and strength.

Think it works better in neutral-ish years. El Nino/La Nina flares muddies the signal with competing influences.

[txtwister78]

No surprise that EPS went toward the GFS/GEFS solution next week also regarding QPF. GFS/GEFS all of a sudden has lots of company now.

[orangeblood]

As has been discussed previously, extreme cold is coming...CMC and Euro have been all over it from 7 plus days out, GFS playing catch up due to lack of resolution (as usual).

Regarding the s/w, we've had enough "surprises" over the years in this type of cold airmass to know it doesn't take much qpf for accumulations to occur. Lift usually overcomes lack of moist advection. Euro ENS is showing this with decent post frontal precip, several solutions have the s/w moving across central texas. GEFS still outlier with Mean more than 1/2 the qpf of the other ENS suites

[Ntxw]

To be in Southwest Missouri for this! Brent is pretty close.

[wxman57]

Okay, I plotted 12Z model data for HOU and DFW starting 12am Wed. Temps drop below freezing before then for DFW, but not for my area. I don't really care how cold it gets in the Central or Northern Plains. It's my area that I'm most focused on. My walls will keep most of the sub-freezing air to my north. You folks in D-FW can have the colder air. For Houston, it's looking like a light freeze next Thursday - maybe mid to upper-20s. Consensus is upper 20s for me. Not unusual for Houston at all. Maybe middle teens up in D-FW next Thursday. Below freezing up there for a good number of hours, though.

When I was living at my father's in Fort Worth back in the late 70s, I remember it got to the lower teens occasionally. We had no central heat, just a space heater that I couldn't turn on at night because it had no vent. One morning, I awoke to icicles hanging from the WOOD window stool above my head. That's how cold it got in my room. Perhaps that's why I hate cold so much?

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU12ZFeb14.jpg



https://wxman57.com/images/DFW12ZFeb14.jpg

[Tireman4]

Okay, I plotted 12Z model data for HOU and DFW starting 12am Wed. Temps drop below freezing before then for DFW, but not for my area. I don't really care how cold it gets in the Central or Northern Plains. It's my area that I'm most focused on. My walls will keep most of the sub-freezing air to my north. You folks in D-FW can have the colder air. For Houston, it's looking like a light freeze next Thursday - maybe mid to upper-20s. Consensus is upper 20s for me. Not unusual for Houston at all. Maybe middle teens up in D-FW next Thursday. Below freezing up there for a good number of hours, though.

When I was living at my father's in Fort Worth back in the late 70s, I remember it got to the lower teens occasionally. We had no central heat, just a space heater that I couldn't turn on at night because it had no vent. One morning, I awoke to icicles hanging from the WOOD window stool above my head. That's how cold it got in my room. Perhaps that's why I hate cold so much?

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU12ZFeb14.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU12ZFeb14.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/DFW12ZFeb14.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/DFW12ZFeb14.jpg

But begging your pardon, but HGX says "got get another heater, sir".

Wednesday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.

[wxman57]

Okay, I plotted 12Z model data for HOU and DFW starting 12am Wed. Temps drop below freezing before then for DFW, but not for my area. I don't really care how cold it gets in the Central or Northern Plains. It's my area that I'm most focused on. My walls will keep most of the sub-freezing air to my north. You folks in D-FW can have the colder air. For Houston, it's looking like a light freeze next Thursday - maybe mid to upper-20s. Consensus is upper 20s for me. Not unusual for Houston at all. Maybe middle teens up in D-FW next Thursday. Below freezing up there for a good number of hours, though.

When I was living at my father's in Fort Worth back in the late 70s, I remember it got to the lower teens occasionally. We had no central heat, just a space heater that I couldn't turn on at night because it had no vent. One morning, I awoke to icicles hanging from the WOOD window stool above my head. That's how cold it got in my room. Perhaps that's why I hate cold so much?

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU12ZFeb14.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU12ZFeb14.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/DFW12ZFeb14.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/DFW12ZFeb14.jpg

But begging your pardon, but HGX says "got get another heater, sir".

Wednesday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.

HGX isn't considering the impact of my walls. Heater is on my desk and going full-blast. I have a second desk heater, if needed. Ah, winter's last gasp. Glad it's about over.

[Ntxw]

Putting fans up in Montana and steering them towards Houston.

Joking aside the medium->shorter range trends for the globals...faster front, colder.

[HockeyTx82]

Putting fans up in Montana and steering them towards Houston.

Joking aside the medium->shorter range trends for the globals...faster front, colder.

https://i.imgur.com/gJ9w5IN.gif

That's a loaded gun. The question is when will the trigger get pulled and how far does the blast go?

[Tireman4]

Putting fans up in Montana and steering them towards Houston.

Joking aside the medium->shorter range trends for the globals...faster front, colder.

https://i.imgur.com/gJ9w5IN.gif

Oh the sir (Wxman57) might be in for a real chill.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ercot-meteor ... 31567.html

Looks like he was right, here it comes......

[Gotwood]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ercot-meteorologist-says-texas-winter-120431567.html

Looks like he was right, here it comes......

Yeah fortunately it’s just a couple days of cold heck a couple of spots in Louisiana already posted sub zero lows this winter.

[fendie]

Nice stretch of below freezing temps at the surface in Dallas on the GFS.

[txtwister78]

I think the main story that will be highlighted next week (for two days) will be how far low temps drop at night/overnight (clear skies/added radiational cooling effect) and the dangerous wind chills across a good portion of the state.

Despite the departures from normal showing up on the Euro and CMC (assuming those actually verify), highs will still manage to rise above freezing across the Southern HC, SC TX, Deep South TX and SE regions of the state on both the 19th and 20th. That's the difference the calendar makes and as I've mentioned before, thankfully this is Feb 19th and 20th we're talking about and not Jan 19th and 20th. Definitely cold for this time of year but the calendar helps.

[Ntxw]

Latest FW discussion.

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Night through Thursday/

Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front Saturday
night, and given the tight pressure gradient winds could get
close to wind advisory criteria. A large temperature drop is
expected from the warmth on Saturday with lows dropping into the
mid 20s to mid 30s by Sunday morning. After that, a gradual warmup
will ensue through Tuesday with highs rising back through the 40s,
50s and even 60s in our south.

Main weather story in the long term continues to be the powerful
Arctic cold front expected to arrive in North Texas on Tuesday
afternoon, which will bring dangerous cold to the region along
with some wintry weather. As I alluded to yesterday, 12Z model
suite continues to trend colder with the Arctic airmass behind the
front given the strength of the associated 1055+ mb surface high
pressure, and this airmass will be the coldest we have seen so far
this winter. Latest NBM guidance has low temperatures falling
into the single digits across our northwest counties by Wednesday
morning, with teens in the Metroplex and 20s in our southeast. A
very tight pressure gradient post-fropa of 15-20 mb from south to
north across our forecast area also indicates north winds will be
very strong with gusts to 50 mph likely, and a wind advisory will
almost certainly be needed. These strong winds along with the
bitterly cold temperatures will drop wind chills as low as -10 in
our northwest, around 0 in the Metroplex, and single digits in our
southeast. Needless to say, such cold will be very dangerous for
anyone outdoors, as well as pets and other animals. These cold
temperatures look to last through at least Thursday, with highs
only in the 20s/30s on Wednesday and lows back into the single
digits and teens on Thursday morning. In fact, all of North and
much of Central Texas looks to stay below freezing for as long as
36-48 hours from late Tuesday through Thursday afternoon.

As if the cold wasn`t enough, models continue to show light rain
developing along and behind the Arctic front on Tuesday -
especially near and east of I-35. As temperatures rapidly drop
behind the front in the shallow Arctic airmass on Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening, rain would change to freezing
rain/drizzle before possibly ending as some light snow Tuesday
night. However, guidance appears to be too aggressive with the
snow potential in our cwa given the large warm nose aloft on
forecast soundings, and the main precip type for this event
should be freezing rain/drizzle. It remains uncertain how much
precipitation will occur given the differences in QPF between the
GFS/ECMWF. Regardless, any liquid that falls would freeze into
ice quickly on area roads Tuesday evening into Tuesday night given
the flash freeze potential as temperatures rapidly fall below
freezing. Thus travel impacts are an increasing concern for the
late Tuesday into Wednesday period.


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