Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Gotwood]

The PNA is confusing the models right now as it is actively defying forecasts

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/bSbls.png
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/bSbls.png

Probably why the GFS isn’t handling things well.

[Gotwood]

Noticed not everyone is buying the hype here.. watched a different TV met in OKC earlier and he was showing only an inch or two of snow pretty much which would be more like Christmas 22 and January last year where the cold is more the story

Long way to go still. I will say TWC hasn't budged off 4-6 inches

Also in the short term tomorrow night has a very quick window for a dusting to an inch.... Well see if we can overperform again(we've yet to underperform this winter...)

TWC had me getting 8-12 inches of snow just two days prior to me getting a half inch lol.

[Brent]

Noticed not everyone is buying the hype here.. watched a different TV met in OKC earlier and he was showing only an inch or two of snow pretty much which would be more like Christmas 22 and January last year where the cold is more the story

Long way to go still. I will say TWC hasn't budged off 4-6 inches

Also in the short term tomorrow night has a very quick window for a dusting to an inch.... Well see if we can overperform again(we've yet to underperform this winter...)

TWC had me getting 8-12 inches of snow just two days prior to me getting a half inch lol.

Yup and I still remember January last year... 3 days before two different mets on the radio saying 10 inches possible

We struggled to get an inch

So yeah there's gonna be part of me that remains skeptical about a big snowstorm. I don't trust it when arctic air is flooding in we dry out quick usually

[Gotwood]

Noticed not everyone is buying the hype here.. watched a different TV met in OKC earlier and he was showing only an inch or two of snow pretty much which would be more like Christmas 22 and January last year where the cold is more the story

Long way to go still. I will say TWC hasn't budged off 4-6 inches

Also in the short term tomorrow night has a very quick window for a dusting to an inch.... Well see if we can overperform again(we've yet to underperform this winter...)

TWC had me getting 8-12 inches of snow just two days prior to me getting a half inch lol.

Yup and I still remember January last year... 3 days before two different mets on the radio saying 10 inches possible

We struggled to get an inch

So yeah there's gonna part of me that remains skeptical about a big snowstorm. I don't trust it when arctic air is flooding i

We are at that point in the season for my area that I would take 2 inches like it was a foot lol. I just don’t want another dry cold give me something nice to look at while I’m freezing.

[Brent]

TWC had me getting 8-12 inches of snow just two days prior to me getting a half inch lol.

Yup and I still remember January last year... 3 days before two different mets on the radio saying 10 inches possible

We struggled to get an inch

So yeah there's gonna part of me that remains skeptical about a big snowstorm. I don't trust it when arctic air is flooding i

We are at that point in the season for my area that I would take 2 inches like it was a foot lol. I just don’t want another dry cold give me something nice to look at while I’m freezing.

Tbh I'm not even sure how much I care about this either we had 6 inches in January out of nowhere not forecast at all with temps barely at 32 and no wind. There's no way we're topping that it didn't even feel cold it was the weirdest storm I've seen here

This is gonna be plain awful either way

But again every arctic outbreak since 2021 has had limited moisture. I cannot get past that

[orangeblood]

Latest model guidance finally starting to converge on a more north solution of the s/w. TPV ended up too strong for the further south scenario. Oklahoma and Kansas big winners again with this system

Regarding the extended 6-7 day range: Euro and CMC looks like they did a good job handling the temperature profiles but got the 5h wrong. GFS did bad with temps but good with the 5h setup and subsequent QPF output. Also Euro AI was great with the 5h pattern but took awhile on temps similar to GFS

[jasons2k]

Well, I posted this in the wrong thread. It was at the top in Tapatalk. Anyway - here is my original post with Mr WxMan's reply:

"Looks like WxMan57’s wall has failed. He needs to wake his pilot up.

NWS here, within 5 days now…

Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 20."

I won't need my pilot, my walls are fine. A third wall has been completed between Waco and Lufkin. You an keep the cold air up in D-FW. Just mid to upper 20s for Houston Thursday morning (25-29). I think the NWS is paying too much attention to the Euro, which was way too cold for Houston with the last couple of events. My azaleas are still blooming - they laugh at this front! It's 70 degrees this morning.

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU00ZFeb15.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU00ZFeb15.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/DFW00ZFeb15.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/DFW00ZFeb15.jpg

[Gotwood]

Latest model guidance finally starting to converge on a more north solution of the s/w. TPV ended up too strong for the further south scenario. Oklahoma and Kansas big winners again with this system

Regarding the extended 6-7 day range: Euro and CMC looks like they did a good job handling the temperature profiles but got the 5h wrong. GFS did bad with temps but good with the 5h setup and subsequent QPF output. Also Euro AI was great with the 5h pattern but took awhile on temps similar to GFS

Is there no hope for change or are we pretty much locked in to another dry slot?

[orangeblood]

Well, I posted this in the wrong thread. It was at the top in Tapatalk. Anyway - here is my original post with Mr WxMan's reply:

"Looks like WxMan57’s wall has failed. He needs to wake his pilot up.

NWS here, within 5 days now…

Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 20."

I won't need my pilot, my walls are fine. A third wall has been completed between Waco and Lufkin. You an keep the cold air up in D-FW. Just mid to upper 20s for Houston Thursday morning (25-29). I think the NWS is paying too much attention to the Euro, which was way too cold for Houston with the last couple of events. My azaleas are still blooming - they laugh at this front! It's 70 degrees this morning.

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU00ZFeb15.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU00ZFeb15.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/DFW00ZFeb15.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/DFW00ZFeb15.jpg

What’s the record low down there for that date ? DFW is looking at potentially several record low mins and maxs being broken. This Arctic Outbreak is the real deal!!

[orangeblood]

Latest model guidance finally starting to converge on a more north solution of the s/w. TPV ended up too strong for the further south scenario. Oklahoma and Kansas big winners again with this system

Regarding the extended 6-7 day range: Euro and CMC looks like they did a good job handling the temperature profiles but got the 5h wrong. GFS did bad with temps but good with the 5h setup and subsequent QPF output. Also Euro AI was great with the 5h pattern but took awhile on temps similar to GFS

Is there no hope for change or are we pretty much locked in to another dry slot?

Unfortunately another dry slot seems highly likely. Just wasn’t our winter for winter precip, cold was there the systems weren’t

[Portastorm]

Latest model guidance finally starting to converge on a more north solution of the s/w. TPV ended up too strong for the further south scenario. Oklahoma and Kansas big winners again with this system

Regarding the extended 6-7 day range: Euro and CMC looks like they did a good job handling the temperature profiles but got the 5h wrong. GFS did bad with temps but good with the 5h setup and subsequent QPF output. Also Euro AI was great with the 5h pattern but took awhile on temps similar to GFS

Is there no hope for change or are we pretty much locked in to another dry slot?

Unfortunately another dry slot seems highly likely. Just wasn’t our winter for winter precip, cold was there the systems weren’t

I know I speak for most of this group when I say “dry cold sucks.” I’d rather have warmth and storms if we’re not going to get any wintry precip at this rate. Bring on spring.

[Gotwood]

Is there no hope for change or are we pretty much locked in to another dry slot?

Unfortunately another dry slot seems highly likely. Just wasn’t our winter for winter precip, cold was there the systems weren’t

I know I speak for most of this group when I say “dry cold sucks.” I’d rather have warmth and storms if we’re not going to get any wintry precip at this rate. Bring on spring.

Yeah no kidding if for no other reason than to save my electric bill lol. Not looking forward to next week now.

[Gotwood]

Models have dew points fairly high for most of Texas Tuesday leading up to the front curious if that will play a roll in anything.

[Stratton23]

GFS does have some freezing rain along the texas coast and lousiana as a coastal low gets going at day 6

[bubba hotep]

It looks like there could be a period of freezing rain or drizzle across portions of North Texas. Given the temps, that could cause some major issues.

[gpsnowman]

Well what a bummer. Not for the dry cold which I don't mind. I do enjoy rare arctic events, precip or not. I'm bummed because it is so late in the season and this might be our last chance for a good snow until next year. Such is life in Texas!!

[wxman57]

12Z models are not as cold for TX as previous days. My walls are definitely having an impact. Even the Canadian has warmed considerably, with a low of 33 here Thursday and only 29 on Friday. National Blend of Models has a coldest of 30 on Thursday. Hardly a historic event for us. Meanwhile, it's 77 in SW Houston. Time for a bike ride!

MAWA!!

[orangeblood]

12Z models are not as cold for TX as previous days. My walls are definitely having an impact. Even the Canadian has warmed considerably, with a low of 33 here Thursday and only 29 on Friday. National Blend of Models has a coldest of 30 on Thursday. Hardly a historic event for us. Meanwhile, it's 77 in SW Houston. Time for a bike ride!

MAWA!!

You may have a tiny wall around Houston but most of the state is setting records

[txtwister78]

One thing I am noticing with each new run from the Euro and ICON is they continue to look more and more like the GFS in terms of max temps for next week (which is to say warmer). In fact, the GFS is now colder (yes colder) than the Euro Thursday afternoon across Central/Southern areas especially). So not only did the GFS have a better handle on the QPF overall but it seems to have the better handle on max temp going into next week as well (see below).

Granted with these events as others have mentioned, the temps initially on Wednesday will probably bust with a faster moving front that globals typically don't handle well, but the GFS (despite the labels from some) once again is holding its own among the global models. Keep that in mind the next time someone says it shouldn't be trusted.

[wxman57]

12Z models are not as cold for TX as previous days. My walls are definitely having an impact. Even the Canadian has warmed considerably, with a low of 33 here Thursday and only 29 on Friday. National Blend of Models has a coldest of 30 on Thursday. Hardly a historic event for us. Meanwhile, it's 77 in SW Houston. Time for a bike ride!

MAWA!!

You may have a tiny wall around Houston but most of the state is setting records

Really? What records were set today?