Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

12z Euro forecast lows early Thursday morning vs 12z run yesterday. Ouch. GFS a few degrees colder but which model is "chasing" the other right now? Hint. Not that "garbage" one. ICON is worse (goodness). CMC is always in a world of its own but its slowly starting to warm with each run as well. Interesting isn't it.

[iorange55]

One thing I am noticing with each new run from the Euro and ICON is they continue to look more and more like the GFS in terms of max temps for next week (which is to say warmer). In fact, the GFS is now colder (yes colder) than the Euro Thursday afternoon across Central/Southern areas especially). So not only did the GFS have a better handle on the QPF overall but it seems to have the better handle on max temp going into next week as well (see below).

Granted with these events as others have mentioned, the temps initially on Wednesday will probably bust with a faster moving front that globals typically don't handle well, but the GFS (despite the labels from some) once again is holding its own among the global models. Keep that in mind the next time someone says it shouldn't be trusted.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1739620800/1740085200-on3sOXv0dL8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1739620800/1740085200-t4afbYcD0Kg.png

Weird. I thought the GFS was a “garbage” model that could only be fixed by our lord and savior, Elon Musk.

[Stratton23]

Lol this is going to be a boring event, yawn, dry cold is wasted cold, send that back to the north pole

[txtwister78]

One thing I am noticing with each new run from the Euro and ICON is they continue to look more and more like the GFS in terms of max temps for next week (which is to say warmer). In fact, the GFS is now colder (yes colder) than the Euro Thursday afternoon across Central/Southern areas especially). So not only did the GFS have a better handle on the QPF overall but it seems to have the better handle on max temp going into next week as well (see below).

Granted with these events as others have mentioned, the temps initially on Wednesday will probably bust with a faster moving front that globals typically don't handle well, but the GFS (despite the labels from some) once again is holding its own among the global models. Keep that in mind the next time someone says it shouldn't be trusted.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1739620800/1740085200-on3sOXv0dL8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1739620800/1740085200-t4afbYcD0Kg.png

Weird. I thought the GFS was a “garbage” model that could only be fixed by our lord and savior, Elon Musk.

To be fair, it has its moments also. They all do and that's the overall point of getting caught into model chasing especially when you're looking for a particular outcome to verify. Models are just tools, but they don't always tell the whole story with the pattern especially when you're 7-8 days out. A lot can and will change at that range as we've seen time and time again.

Climatology on its own for this time of year via the calendar points to warmer temps the further south you get anyway and so it takes something big from the models to verify (huge arctic highs placed in the right area) in order have a real impact down here as opposed to January for example. Obviously, the further north you go into Oklahoma or the Panhandle that's less of an issue but that's a big reason I was leaning GFS all the way over the others because we've seen this movie before and with the calendar/current pattern being what it is, the GFS seemed more reasonable with its profile.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro with a small uptick in QPF for North Texas. We've seen this before with these arctic fronts and how even a small amount of QPF can cause havoc across DFW.

[txtwister78]

Btw if you think we have it bad...the NE (I-95 corridor points NE) is sweating bullets because it appears the Euro is now caving toward the GFS up there and as a result, may rob them of their blizzard that the Euro assured them would verify. Bastardi and others have been endlessly focusing on it for days as if the rest of the country stopped having weather. I know for some folks up there it's a business/client thing, but man the obsession on social media and forums is excessive at times

Edit..nevermind just saw the 12z GFS run and now they've almost switched outcomes. 6z GFS and previous runs had been pretty bullish for days with taking the low out to sea and not cutting up the coast. Euro has that look now but 12z GFS trended north. One run so let's see how that one plays out.

[wxman22]

12z Euro with a small uptick in QPF for North Texas. We've seen this before with these arctic fronts and how even a small amount of QPF can cause havoc across DFW.

Yep, I'm a little concerned about a long duration freezing drizzle event on Tuesday here. With temps in the 20s and teens the bulk of the time the precip is falling. Roads would be a mess with sufficient ice accretion rates due to the cold air advection winds and temps. You would think strong winds from cold air advection would lead to sublimation of ice but it actually increases ice accretion rates as it cools down surfaces/objects quicker. A little QPF can go a long way when temps drop into the low 20s and teens. Something to watch as we get into range of the mesoscale models this weekend.

[JayDT]

I mean technically the GFS was showing something completely different a few days ago than what its showing now.. It now moved over to the colder solutions that most of the other models were showing. Lets keep that in mind as well.

[wxman22]

I mean technically the GFS was showing something completely different a few days ago than what its showing now.. It now moved over to the colder solutions that most of the other models were showing. Lets keep that in mind as well.

Yep, the GFS caved more towards the EURO than the other way around.

[txtwister78]

I mean technically the GFS was showing something completely different a few days ago than what its showing now.. It now moved over to the colder solutions that most of the other models were showing. Lets keep that in mind as well.

Not really. The two models that have warmed considerably toward the GFS (max temps especially) have been the Euro and ICON. No question about that if you simply go back and look at their previous runs. I just cited one example with the Euro, but ICON is worse (It had highs in the upper 20's a few runs prior down into SC TX next week and today it has low 40's for the same time period). Lol!

The GFS by far has had the better handle with QPF and now max temps. Remains to be seen how cold we get overnight next week because some of that will be dependent on wind and lack of cloud cover, but GFS for example in previous runs also advertised colder air hanging around with some mixed precip Friday across SC TX or southern HC. Euro 12z yesterday and prior runs had nothing, but low and behold todays 12z Euro is now much colder Friday with light mixed precip down into the southern HC? Not saying it will verify but clear to me which model is chasing the other.

[Sambucol2024]

Lol this is going to be a boring event, yawn, dry cold is wasted cold, send that back to the north pole

Could be worse. We could be in the 80s with mosquitoes. I’ll take the dry cold over that!!

[Cpv17]

I’ll take the dry cold as well, but only cuz weather extremes are bad ass. I’ll almost always root for the most extreme solution to verify except when it comes to tornadoes or hurricanes. If I had it my way we’d have blizzard conditions with 2-3 feet of snow with temps in the teens and single digits for a whole week.

[jasons2k]

And that’s what I get for chasing model suites. Looks like WxMan has called-in reinforcements while his pilot sips on a pina colada.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 i would agree with that, id gladly take blizzard conditions over the complete misery that we see in 9/12 months here

[JayDT]

I mean technically the GFS was showing something completely different a few days ago than what its showing now.. It now moved over to the colder solutions that most of the other models were showing. Lets keep that in mind as well.

Not really. The two models that have warmed considerably toward the GFS (max temps especially) have been the Euro and ICON. No question about that if you simply go back and look at their previous runs. I just cited one example with the Euro, but ICON is worse (It had highs in the upper 20's a few runs prior down into SC TX next week and today it has low 40's for the same time period). Lol!

The GFS by far has had the better handle with QPF and now max temps. Remains to be seen how cold we get overnight next week because some of that will be dependent on wind and lack of cloud cover, but GFS for example in previous runs also advertised colder air hanging around with some mixed precip Friday across SC TX or southern HC. Euro 12z yesterday and prior runs had nothing, but low and behold todays 12z Euro is now much colder Friday with light mixed precip down into the southern HC? Not saying it will verify but clear to me which model is chasing the other.

I actually did go back to just a few days ago when the GFS was showing almost 40 degrees in the DFW area for thursday morning. My point is just that no one model is fully correct, especially this far out. But the GFS has very much trended colder as we’ve gotten closer as well. Its not showing the same thing it was showing a few days ago either. And I won’t even get started with precip, cause that will for sure stress me out

[wxman57]

GFS was pretty warm with the January event. EC was way too cold 5-7 days out. CMC was ridiculously too cold. NBM wasn't too bad. Here are the 12z model plots for Houston. Just a light freeze next Thursday in today's runs. Nothing too extreme. Even the Canadian warmed considerably. Models tended to do a lot better a couple days before the cold.

https://wxman57.com/images/HOU12ZFeb15.jpg

[wxman22]

[opticsguy]

I'll post this again. Various models before the 2021 freeze for DFW. Not even the NAM came close at 60 hours, but the GFS was pretty much on for the second batch of cold.

[opticsguy]

I'll post this again. Various models before the 2021 freeze for DFW. Not even the NAM came close at 60 hours, but the GFS was pretty much on for the second batch of cold.

https://i.ibb.co/hR78K8dq/2021-freeze-1.jpg

initialized 4 days later.

[txtwister78]

I mean technically the GFS was showing something completely different a few days ago than what its showing now.. It now moved over to the colder solutions that most of the other models were showing. Lets keep that in mind as well.

Not really. The two models that have warmed considerably toward the GFS (max temps especially) have been the Euro and ICON. No question about that if you simply go back and look at their previous runs. I just cited one example with the Euro, but ICON is worse (It had highs in the upper 20's a few runs prior down into SC TX next week and today it has low 40's for the same time period). Lol!

The GFS by far has had the better handle with QPF and now max temps. Remains to be seen how cold we get overnight next week because some of that will be dependent on wind and lack of cloud cover, but GFS for example in previous runs also advertised colder air hanging around with some mixed precip Friday across SC TX or southern HC. Euro 12z yesterday and prior runs had nothing, but low and behold todays 12z Euro is now much colder Friday with light mixed precip down into the southern HC? Not saying it will verify but clear to me which model is chasing the other.

I actually did go back to just a few days ago when the GFS was showing almost 40 degrees in the DFW area for thursday morning. My point is just that no one model is fully correct, especially this far out. But the GFS has very much trended colder as we’ve gotten closer as well. Its not showing the same thing it was showing a few days ago either. And I won’t even get started with precip, cause that will for sure stress me out

Moving on beyond this comment regarding this topic, but we agree 100% about no model being completely accurate (different patterns offer different solutions that some handle better than others at various ranges), but that's also the point I was making about the models in general. Avoiding the rush to label one model as "trash" or toss it out simply because it doesn't align with others or a desired outcome at day 6 or 7 range and certainly beyond that.

To your point, we can all knit pick these, but I'm also not going to ignore the fact that once again the "King Euro" the ICON and our favorite bust model the CMC (all three of which were being propped up a few days ago as being "better") have now trended much warmer from their previous runs going into next week (max temps in particular) and therefore look more in line with what that other "trash model" the GFS has been consistently showing overall.... which was always a warmer solution regardless of what it has today for a particular region. It was never as cold as the Euro, CMC or ICON was in terms of the brutal cold those were advertising just a few days ago regarding max temps.

In fact, the Euro has warmed so much that it's now warmer than the 12z GFS overall across the state for Thursday and as of 12z, keeps DFW just above freezing when it had that region in the mid 20's just a few days ago for the same time period? lol. So again, which model is chasing the other in that regard? The closer we get into range the more models will naturally come together, but the trends have been warmer among those other 3 models (not colder) and so my question is how can one then come to the conclusion that the GFS caved to the others when the others continue to warmup with each new run??? lol.

Regarding precip, I'll agree that's a harder piece of the puzzle to pinpoint/solve 48 hours out down here at times let alone 7 days out, but the GFS was never all that bullish with frozen precip and certainly never had a winter storm scenario with it like the others advertised a few days ago. ICON was pretty dry to be fair. Above all that's why I prefer using blends or ensembles but also factoring in climatology etc because it gives a more realistic solution when you have various solutions being offered from operational models 6-7 days out. Moving on