Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8461 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 16, 2025 10:21 pm

Brent wrote:Icon with 15 inches here on the Kuchera map :double: :eek: this is crazy trends so close

The mix pushing further away from here seems to be the trend


Yeah, the south trend today has been good for you and even OKC.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8462 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:41 am

Winter Storm Warning for 4-10 inches here :sled: :froze:

They still think we mix at the start and stay closer to the 4. Time will tell :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8463 Postby wxman22 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:18 am

The mesoscale models overnight are increasing the duration of frozen precip up here. The NWS has WF now at a 70% chance of a wintry mix.The 12Z HRRR has light wintry precip from around noon tomorrow till past midnight.It even has freezing drizzle as far south as the Hill Country now.



Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8464 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:22 am

Got back from weekend trip to Angel Fire, pretty decent conditions. Always beautiful out that way.

Looks like cold air is has made it to the northern plains with -20s/-30s and -50/-60 wind chills. Surface front will likely surge through Kansas and Oklahoma tonight and tomorrow and through I-20 corridor tomorrow afternoon and evening. The further north you are the colder it will be relative to normal. System late week will keep it below normal until it swings through, warming up Sunday first in the west but stays cooler to the east.

Image

The -AO did reach -5.2 and will rebound after this cold snap. However longer term indicator show another -AO period down the road as it progresses with MJO 1-2-3 which are below normal colder phases for early March. The MJO progression has been fairly predictable but the strength has been poorly done by guidance beyond day 5, so do expect a more tangible move through these phases. It will be milder after this cold snap for the remainder of Feb, but a system will kick off a new pattern shift towards the end of the month to beginning of March.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8465 Postby wxman22 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:32 am

12z 3k NAM looks like the HRRR. I suspect winter weather advisories will probably be issued later today. It has frozen precip over North Texas all night Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With freezing drizzle in the Hill Country. Precip is light but with temps in the teens and twenties accretion rates will be efficient.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8466 Postby Gotwood » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:56 am

wxman22 wrote:12z 3k NAM looks like the HRRR. I suspect winter weather advisories will probably be issued later today. It has frozen precip over North Texas all night Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With freezing drizzle in the Hill Country. Precip is light but with temps in the teens and twenties accretion rates will be efficient.

https://i.ibb.co/Y7rQKX7J/IMG-0276.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/vCm6pGWG/IMG-0277.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/2Ymy2YXT/IMG-0279.jpg

I was wondering if this would be the case considering just how high the Dews are forecasted to be when the front arrives in NTX. Freezing drizzle could become an issue.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8467 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:58 am

Crank up that LES Tuesday night-Wed morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8468 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:00 am

wxman22 wrote:The mesoscale models overnight are increasing the duration of frozen precip up here. The NWS has WF now at a 70% chance of a wintry mix.The 12Z HRRR has light wintry precip from around noon tomorrow till past midnight.It even has freezing drizzle as far south as the Hill Country now.



https://i.ibb.co/6RbwmBtL/IMG-0272.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/sJCdfQ9v/IMG-0274.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/1G3LJGbm/IMG-0275.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/xtR7LyM7/IMG-0273.jpg


Yeah I'm having a hard time believing we only get 3-5 inches here unless we really lose a lot to mixing but with the Arctic air flooding in i just don't see a lot of mixing and the long duration has really struck me on the models. I've only seen that in the biggest events here(or when I went to KC). I mean we had 6 inches in January and weren't even cold enough for most of it(it snowed for hours during the day and only had a dusting then)

Gonna be interesting. I mean don't get me wrong 3-5 inches is still gonna be a big deal especially with the wind and blowing snow but like the ceiling is so much higher
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8469 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:16 am

Brent wrote:
wxman22 wrote:The mesoscale models overnight are increasing the duration of frozen precip up here. The NWS has WF now at a 70% chance of a wintry mix.The 12Z HRRR has light wintry precip from around noon tomorrow till past midnight.It even has freezing drizzle as far south as the Hill Country now.



https://i.ibb.co/6RbwmBtL/IMG-0272.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/sJCdfQ9v/IMG-0274.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/1G3LJGbm/IMG-0275.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/xtR7LyM7/IMG-0273.jpg


Yeah I'm having a hard time believing we only get 3-5 inches here unless we really lose a lot to mixing but with the Arctic air flooding in i just don't see a lot of mixing and the long duration has really struck me on the models. I've only seen that in the biggest events here(or when I went to KC). I mean we had 6 inches in January and weren't even cold enough for most of it(it snowed for hours during the day and only had a dusting then)

Gonna be interesting. I mean don't get me wrong 3-5 inches is still gonna be a big deal especially with the wind and blowing snow but like the ceiling is so much higher


Think you will be mostly snow in Tulsa. In the mid 20s falling through teens. It's 15-20F when the best snow falls so it comes down to ratio-qpf. The freezing drizzle stuff isn't much qpf
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8470 Postby nlosrgr8 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:25 am

Does it still show trending warmer for down around Houston? Trying to decide weather to cover plants for Wed-Thursday . Tv is not sure all 3 channels show different lows. NWS Houston only shows @a low of 30, in which case no cover….thanks!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8471 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:26 am

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
wxman22 wrote:The mesoscale models overnight are increasing the duration of frozen precip up here. The NWS has WF now at a 70% chance of a wintry mix.The 12Z HRRR has light wintry precip from around noon tomorrow till past midnight.It even has freezing drizzle as far south as the Hill Country now.



https://i.ibb.co/6RbwmBtL/IMG-0272.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/sJCdfQ9v/IMG-0274.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/1G3LJGbm/IMG-0275.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/xtR7LyM7/IMG-0273.jpg


Yeah I'm having a hard time believing we only get 3-5 inches here unless we really lose a lot to mixing but with the Arctic air flooding in i just don't see a lot of mixing and the long duration has really struck me on the models. I've only seen that in the biggest events here(or when I went to KC). I mean we had 6 inches in January and weren't even cold enough for most of it(it snowed for hours during the day and only had a dusting then)

Gonna be interesting. I mean don't get me wrong 3-5 inches is still gonna be a big deal especially with the wind and blowing snow but like the ceiling is so much higher


Think you will be mostly snow in Tulsa. In the mid 20s falling through teens. It's 15-20F when the best snow falls so it comes down to ratio-qpf. The freezing drizzle stuff isn't much qpf


Yeah the icon and the RGEM both show potential for much higher totals here

I just think if it snows for over 12 hours at those temps yeah the ceiling is high. That's closer to what happened in KC
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8472 Postby GeauxTigers » Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:37 am

wxman22 wrote:12z 3k NAM looks like the HRRR. I suspect winter weather advisories will probably be issued later today. It has frozen precip over North Texas all night Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With freezing drizzle in the Hill Country. Precip is light but with temps in the teens and twenties accretion rates will be efficient.

https://i.ibb.co/Y7rQKX7J/IMG-0276.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/vCm6pGWG/IMG-0277.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/2Ymy2YXT/IMG-0279.jpg


I’m good w-that!! I live on border of Grayson & Denton counties. Freezing rain on roads overnight will probably keep us home.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8473 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:50 am

nlosrgr8 wrote:Does it still show trending warmer for down around Houston? Trying to decide weather to cover plants for Wed-Thursday . Tv is not sure all 3 channels show different lows. NWS Houston only shows @a low of 30, in which case no cover….thanks!


Depending upon what part of Houston, temps could be around 29 on the south side and 26-27 on the north side Thursday morning. No winter weather, just maybe an inch of rain tomorrow afternoon/evening along and ahead of the front. Possibly no more freezes in Houston this winter after Thursday, but I won't guarantee that just yet. It does look like a warming trend next week into the first week of March.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8474 Postby nlosrgr8 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:01 am

Thank you wxman57, I’m in Sugar Land. I’m older and pay someone to cover and uncover plants…I’m tired of replacing them due to one freeze event a year. Looks like this one wont be a hard freeze, so maybe no covers.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8475 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:03 am

Gotwood wrote:
wxman22 wrote:12z 3k NAM looks like the HRRR. I suspect winter weather advisories will probably be issued later today. It has frozen precip over North Texas all night Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With freezing drizzle in the Hill Country. Precip is light but with temps in the teens and twenties accretion rates will be efficient.

https://i.ibb.co/Y7rQKX7J/IMG-0276.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/vCm6pGWG/IMG-0277.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/2Ymy2YXT/IMG-0279.jpg

I was wondering if this would be the case considering just how high the Dews are forecasted to be when the front arrives in NTX. Freezing drizzle could become an issue.


This could get bad--- I have a feeling someone's going to drop the ball on this regarding school closings/work closings. Wed AM is going to be a cluster in the DFDub.. mark my words
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8476 Postby wxman22 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:16 am

Here we go a Winter Weather Advisory was just issued for WF. I expect more advisories will go up further south later today.

Image

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
914 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

OKZ032>047-050-TXZ083>086-090-180900-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.250218T1200Z-250219T0600Z/
Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-
Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Love-
Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Clay-
Including the cities of Davis, Thackerville, Lawton, Granite,
Lindsay, Hollis, Vernon, Coalgate, Walters, Mangum, Ryan, Quanah,
Hobart, Altus, Duncan, Temple, Waurika, Ardmore, Wetumka,
Sulphur, Snyder, Holdenville, Ringling, Ada, Sheppard AFB,
Tishomingo, Frederick, Henrietta, Wichita Falls, Crowell,
Wynnewood, Pauls Valley, and Marietta
914 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up
to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, southeast, southern, and
southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday Night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8477 Postby Tammie » Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:19 am

wxman22 wrote:Here we go a Winter Weather Advisory was just issued for WF. I expect more advisories will go up further south later today.

https://i.ibb.co/0jb452GJ/IMG-0280.png

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
914 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

OKZ032>047-050-TXZ083>086-090-180900-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.250218T1200Z-250219T0600Z/
Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-
Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Love-
Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Clay-
Including the cities of Davis, Thackerville, Lawton, Granite,
Lindsay, Hollis, Vernon, Coalgate, Walters, Mangum, Ryan, Quanah,
Hobart, Altus, Duncan, Temple, Waurika, Ardmore, Wetumka,
Sulphur, Snyder, Holdenville, Ringling, Ada, Sheppard AFB,
Tishomingo, Frederick, Henrietta, Wichita Falls, Crowell,
Wynnewood, Pauls Valley, and Marietta
914 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up
to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, southeast, southern, and
southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday Night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.


Won’t have to move much further south to get those of us in Red River counties!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8478 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:28 am

GFSX-MOS is running a tad colder and looks good to me. The 0z was Weds 30/21F, Thurs 31/15F, FRI 41/22F. Quite possible won't get much above 40 until Sunday for DFW. Much colder to the north.

70s and 80s return early next week to the south and western parts of the state.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8479 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:39 am

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
wxman22 wrote:12z 3k NAM looks like the HRRR. I suspect winter weather advisories will probably be issued later today. It has frozen precip over North Texas all night Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With freezing drizzle in the Hill Country. Precip is light but with temps in the teens and twenties accretion rates will be efficient.

https://i.ibb.co/Y7rQKX7J/IMG-0276.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/vCm6pGWG/IMG-0277.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/2Ymy2YXT/IMG-0279.jpg

I was wondering if this would be the case considering just how high the Dews are forecasted to be when the front arrives in NTX. Freezing drizzle could become an issue.


This could get bad--- I have a feeling someone's going to drop the ball on this regarding school closings/work closings. Wed AM is going to be a cluster in the DFDub.. mark my words


Freezing drizzle doesn’t stick well in my experience to roads unless it’s very “heavy.” I’m skeptical.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8480 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:53 am

Ntxw wrote:GFSX-MOS is running a tad colder and looks good to me. The 0z was Weds 30/21F, Thurs 31/15F, FRI 41/22F. Quite possible won't get much above 40 until Sunday for DFW. Much colder to the north.

70s and 80s return early next week to the south and western parts of the state.


That would set 3 All-Time records for DFW, Low Maxes for Wed/Thurs and Low Min for Thurs. Also, Thursday would be a Top 5 coldest morning after Feb 19th in 60 plus years. If it gets to 13F, would be the coldest late season (Late Feb/March) morning since 1962. Considering the Urban Growth, Concretization of the Metroplex and no snow cover, this is a historically significant late season Arctic Outbreak!
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