Brent wrote:Icon with 15 inches here on the Kuchera map![]()
this is crazy trends so close
The mix pushing further away from here seems to be the trend
Yeah, the south trend today has been good for you and even OKC.
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Brent wrote:Icon with 15 inches here on the Kuchera map![]()
this is crazy trends so close
The mix pushing further away from here seems to be the trend
wxman22 wrote:12z 3k NAM looks like the HRRR. I suspect winter weather advisories will probably be issued later today. It has frozen precip over North Texas all night Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With freezing drizzle in the Hill Country. Precip is light but with temps in the teens and twenties accretion rates will be efficient.
https://i.ibb.co/Y7rQKX7J/IMG-0276.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/vCm6pGWG/IMG-0277.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/2Ymy2YXT/IMG-0279.jpg
wxman22 wrote:The mesoscale models overnight are increasing the duration of frozen precip up here. The NWS has WF now at a 70% chance of a wintry mix.The 12Z HRRR has light wintry precip from around noon tomorrow till past midnight.It even has freezing drizzle as far south as the Hill Country now.
https://i.ibb.co/6RbwmBtL/IMG-0272.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/sJCdfQ9v/IMG-0274.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/1G3LJGbm/IMG-0275.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/xtR7LyM7/IMG-0273.jpg
Brent wrote:wxman22 wrote:The mesoscale models overnight are increasing the duration of frozen precip up here. The NWS has WF now at a 70% chance of a wintry mix.The 12Z HRRR has light wintry precip from around noon tomorrow till past midnight.It even has freezing drizzle as far south as the Hill Country now.
https://i.ibb.co/6RbwmBtL/IMG-0272.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/sJCdfQ9v/IMG-0274.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/1G3LJGbm/IMG-0275.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/xtR7LyM7/IMG-0273.jpg
Yeah I'm having a hard time believing we only get 3-5 inches here unless we really lose a lot to mixing but with the Arctic air flooding in i just don't see a lot of mixing and the long duration has really struck me on the models. I've only seen that in the biggest events here(or when I went to KC). I mean we had 6 inches in January and weren't even cold enough for most of it(it snowed for hours during the day and only had a dusting then)
Gonna be interesting. I mean don't get me wrong 3-5 inches is still gonna be a big deal especially with the wind and blowing snow but like the ceiling is so much higher
Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:wxman22 wrote:The mesoscale models overnight are increasing the duration of frozen precip up here. The NWS has WF now at a 70% chance of a wintry mix.The 12Z HRRR has light wintry precip from around noon tomorrow till past midnight.It even has freezing drizzle as far south as the Hill Country now.
https://i.ibb.co/6RbwmBtL/IMG-0272.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/sJCdfQ9v/IMG-0274.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/1G3LJGbm/IMG-0275.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/xtR7LyM7/IMG-0273.jpg
Yeah I'm having a hard time believing we only get 3-5 inches here unless we really lose a lot to mixing but with the Arctic air flooding in i just don't see a lot of mixing and the long duration has really struck me on the models. I've only seen that in the biggest events here(or when I went to KC). I mean we had 6 inches in January and weren't even cold enough for most of it(it snowed for hours during the day and only had a dusting then)
Gonna be interesting. I mean don't get me wrong 3-5 inches is still gonna be a big deal especially with the wind and blowing snow but like the ceiling is so much higher
Think you will be mostly snow in Tulsa. In the mid 20s falling through teens. It's 15-20F when the best snow falls so it comes down to ratio-qpf. The freezing drizzle stuff isn't much qpf
wxman22 wrote:12z 3k NAM looks like the HRRR. I suspect winter weather advisories will probably be issued later today. It has frozen precip over North Texas all night Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With freezing drizzle in the Hill Country. Precip is light but with temps in the teens and twenties accretion rates will be efficient.
https://i.ibb.co/Y7rQKX7J/IMG-0276.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/vCm6pGWG/IMG-0277.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/2Ymy2YXT/IMG-0279.jpg
nlosrgr8 wrote:Does it still show trending warmer for down around Houston? Trying to decide weather to cover plants for Wed-Thursday . Tv is not sure all 3 channels show different lows. NWS Houston only shows @a low of 30, in which case no cover….thanks!
Gotwood wrote:wxman22 wrote:12z 3k NAM looks like the HRRR. I suspect winter weather advisories will probably be issued later today. It has frozen precip over North Texas all night Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With freezing drizzle in the Hill Country. Precip is light but with temps in the teens and twenties accretion rates will be efficient.
https://i.ibb.co/Y7rQKX7J/IMG-0276.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/vCm6pGWG/IMG-0277.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/2Ymy2YXT/IMG-0279.jpg
I was wondering if this would be the case considering just how high the Dews are forecasted to be when the front arrives in NTX. Freezing drizzle could become an issue.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
914 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
OKZ032>047-050-TXZ083>086-090-180900-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.250218T1200Z-250219T0600Z/
Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-
Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Love-
Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Clay-
Including the cities of Davis, Thackerville, Lawton, Granite,
Lindsay, Hollis, Vernon, Coalgate, Walters, Mangum, Ryan, Quanah,
Hobart, Altus, Duncan, Temple, Waurika, Ardmore, Wetumka,
Sulphur, Snyder, Holdenville, Ringling, Ada, Sheppard AFB,
Tishomingo, Frederick, Henrietta, Wichita Falls, Crowell,
Wynnewood, Pauls Valley, and Marietta
914 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up
to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of east central, southeast, southern, and
southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.
* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday Night.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.
wxman22 wrote:Here we go a Winter Weather Advisory was just issued for WF. I expect more advisories will go up further south later today.
https://i.ibb.co/0jb452GJ/IMG-0280.pngURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
914 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
OKZ032>047-050-TXZ083>086-090-180900-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.250218T1200Z-250219T0600Z/
Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-
Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Love-
Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Clay-
Including the cities of Davis, Thackerville, Lawton, Granite,
Lindsay, Hollis, Vernon, Coalgate, Walters, Mangum, Ryan, Quanah,
Hobart, Altus, Duncan, Temple, Waurika, Ardmore, Wetumka,
Sulphur, Snyder, Holdenville, Ringling, Ada, Sheppard AFB,
Tishomingo, Frederick, Henrietta, Wichita Falls, Crowell,
Wynnewood, Pauls Valley, and Marietta
914 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up
to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of east central, southeast, southern, and
southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.
* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday Night.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Gotwood wrote:wxman22 wrote:12z 3k NAM looks like the HRRR. I suspect winter weather advisories will probably be issued later today. It has frozen precip over North Texas all night Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With freezing drizzle in the Hill Country. Precip is light but with temps in the teens and twenties accretion rates will be efficient.
https://i.ibb.co/Y7rQKX7J/IMG-0276.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/vCm6pGWG/IMG-0277.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/2Ymy2YXT/IMG-0279.jpg
I was wondering if this would be the case considering just how high the Dews are forecasted to be when the front arrives in NTX. Freezing drizzle could become an issue.
This could get bad--- I have a feeling someone's going to drop the ball on this regarding school closings/work closings. Wed AM is going to be a cluster in the DFDub.. mark my words
Ntxw wrote:GFSX-MOS is running a tad colder and looks good to me. The 0z was Weds 30/21F, Thurs 31/15F, FRI 41/22F. Quite possible won't get much above 40 until Sunday for DFW. Much colder to the north.
70s and 80s return early next week to the south and western parts of the state.
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