2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[ryxn314]

I feel like a lot of people don't quite know how record-breaking this past decade has been!

If this upcoming season manages to produce a 150 mph+ hurricane, it will be the 11th consecutive season to do so
2015 season: Joaquin (155)
2016 season: Matthew (165)
2017 season: Irma (180), Jose (155), Maria (175)
2018 season: Florence (150), Michael (160)
2019 season: Dorian (185), Lorenzo (160)
2020 season: Laura (150), Eta (150), Iota (155)
2021 season: Ida (150), Sam (155)
2022 season: Ian (160)
2023 season: Franklin (150), Lee (165)
2024 season: Beryl (165), Milton (180)

To put things in perspective, with Florence attaining 150 mph winds, 2018 became the record 4th consecutive year to feature of 150 mph+ storm...yes all the way back in 2018. Before that, the record was 2003-2005.

To add, even if this upcoming season manages to spawn a minimal Category 4 storm of 130 mph and no higher, it would still extend a record breaking streak of years featuring a Category 4+ storm. With Franklin reaching Category 4 status, 2023 became the record 10th consecutive year to feature a Category 4 storm. If a Category 4+ forms this year, we would be at year-in-a-row #12.

Previous Record Streaks of Seasons featuring CAT4+ storms
1947-1955 (9 years)
1998-2005 (8 years)

Current Record Streak
2014-2024 (11 years)

And if you're curious, even with Iota's downgrade to a 155 mph Category 4 storm, the 2016-2019 period still holds the record for most consecutive seasons featuring a Category 5 storm at 4. The previous record was 3 during 2003-2005 (which is interestingly also the old record for most consecutive seasons featuring 150 mph+ storms).

And what's MORE is that if this upcoming season manages to pump out a Category 5 storm, the 2022-2025 period would TIE the currently record-holding 2016-2019 streak. That's TWO almost back-to-back 4-year streaks with the 2 years between getting oh so close with 2020's Iota (155) (operationally a CAT 5) and 2021's Sam (155) (which some people speculate could have been a CAT 5). Crazy how we were super close to an absolutely bonkers 10-YEAR Category 5-hurricane-featuring streak with 2015-2024. Yes, I'm throwing Joaquin in there as his winds were super close at 155 mph. In fact, had he made it to CAT 5 status, he'd be the only such storm of that intensity of non-tropical origin. He is still the strongest.

If you haven't realized already, there has been a lot of 155 mph storms the past decade. The 10-year streak of 2015-2024 that featured at least one 150 mph+ storm, ALSO featured at least one 155 mph+ storm

And so yeah.....that's my two cents.
Ryan out. PEACE! ✌️

[StormWeather]

I feel like a lot of people don't quite know how record-breaking this past decade has been!

If this upcoming season manages to produce a 150 mph+ hurricane, it will be the 11th consecutive season to do so
2015 season: Joaquin (155)
2016 season: Matthew (165)
2017 season: Irma (180), Jose (155), Maria (175)
2018 season: Florence (150), Michael (160)
2019 season: Dorian (185), Lorenzo (160)
2020 season: Laura (150), Eta (150), Iota (155)
2021 season: Ida (150), Sam (155)
2022 season: Ian (160)
2023 season: Franklin (150), Lee (165)
2024 season: Beryl (165), Milton (180)

To put things in perspective, with Florence attaining 150 mph winds, 2018 became the record 4th consecutive year to feature of 150 mph+ storm...yes all the way back in 2018. Before that, the record was 2003-2005.

To add, even if this upcoming season manages to spawn a minimal Category 4 storm of 130 mph and no higher, it would still extend a record breaking streak of years featuring a Category 4+ storm. With Franklin reaching Category 4 status, 2023 became the record 10th consecutive year to feature a Category 4 storm. If a Category 4+ forms this year, we would be at year-in-a-row #12.

Previous Record Streaks of Seasons featuring CAT4+ storms
1947-1955 (9 years)
1998-2005 (8 years)

Current Record Streak
2014-2024 (11 years)

And if you're curious, even with Iota's downgrade to a 155 mph Category 4 storm, the 2016-2019 period still holds the record for most consecutive seasons featuring a Category 5 storm at 4. The previous record was 3 during 2003-2005 (which is interestingly also the old record for most consecutive seasons featuring 150 mph+ storms).

And what's MORE is that if this upcoming season manages to pump out a Category 5 storm, the 2022-2025 period would TIE the currently record-holding 2016-2019 streak. That's TWO almost back-to-back 4-year streaks with the 2 years between getting oh so close with 2020's Iota (155) (operationally a CAT 5) and 2021's Sam (155) (which some people speculate could have been a CAT 5). Crazy how we were super close to an absolutely bonkers 10-YEAR Category 5-hurricane-featuring streak with 2015-2024. Yes, I'm throwing Joaquin in there as his winds were super close at 155 mph. In fact, had he made it to CAT 5 status, he'd be the only such storm of that intensity of non-tropical origin. He is still the strongest.

If you haven't realized already, there has been a lot of 155 mph storms the past decade. The 10-year streak of 2015-2024 that featured at least one 150 mph+ storm, ALSO featured at least one 155 mph+ storm

And so yeah.....that's my two cents.
Ryan out. PEACE! ✌️

In regards to the MH’s, we are now at 5 consecutive years with at least one Major Hurricane landfall in the U.S.

2020: Laura (Category 4)
Delta (Category 4)
Zeta (Category 3)

2021: Ida (Category 4)

2022: Ian (Category 4)

2023: Idalia (Category 3)

2024: Helene (Category 4)
Milton (Category 3)


I think the streak is tied currently with some time in the 1910s.

[Beef Stew]

I feel like a lot of people don't quite know how record-breaking this past decade has been!

If this upcoming season manages to produce a 150 mph+ hurricane, it will be the 11th consecutive season to do so
2015 season: Joaquin (155)
2016 season: Matthew (165)
2017 season: Irma (180), Jose (155), Maria (175)
2018 season: Florence (150), Michael (160)
2019 season: Dorian (185), Lorenzo (160)
2020 season: Laura (150), Eta (150), Iota (155)
2021 season: Ida (150), Sam (155)
2022 season: Ian (160)
2023 season: Franklin (150), Lee (165)
2024 season: Beryl (165), Milton (180)

To put things in perspective, with Florence attaining 150 mph winds, 2018 became the record 4th consecutive year to feature of 150 mph+ storm...yes all the way back in 2018. Before that, the record was 2003-2005.

To add, even if this upcoming season manages to spawn a minimal Category 4 storm of 130 mph and no higher, it would still extend a record breaking streak of years featuring a Category 4+ storm. With Franklin reaching Category 4 status, 2023 became the record 10th consecutive year to feature a Category 4 storm. If a Category 4+ forms this year, we would be at year-in-a-row #12.

Previous Record Streaks of Seasons featuring CAT4+ storms
1947-1955 (9 years)
1998-2005 (8 years)

Current Record Streak
2014-2024 (11 years)

And if you're curious, even with Iota's downgrade to a 155 mph Category 4 storm, the 2016-2019 period still holds the record for most consecutive seasons featuring a Category 5 storm at 4. The previous record was 3 during 2003-2005 (which is interestingly also the old record for most consecutive seasons featuring 150 mph+ storms).

And what's MORE is that if this upcoming season manages to pump out a Category 5 storm, the 2022-2025 period would TIE the currently record-holding 2016-2019 streak. That's TWO almost back-to-back 4-year streaks with the 2 years between getting oh so close with 2020's Iota (155) (operationally a CAT 5) and 2021's Sam (155) (which some people speculate could have been a CAT 5). Crazy how we were super close to an absolutely bonkers 10-YEAR Category 5-hurricane-featuring streak with 2015-2024. Yes, I'm throwing Joaquin in there as his winds were super close at 155 mph. In fact, had he made it to CAT 5 status, he'd be the only such storm of that intensity of non-tropical origin. He is still the strongest.

If you haven't realized already, there has been a lot of 155 mph storms the past decade. The 10-year streak of 2015-2024 that featured at least one 150 mph+ storm, ALSO featured at least one 155 mph+ storm

And so yeah.....that's my two cents.
Ryan out. PEACE! ✌️

In regards to the MH’s, we are now at 5 consecutive years with at least one Major Hurricane landfall in the U.S.

2020: Laura (Category 4)
Delta (Category 4)
Zeta (Category 3)

2021: Ida (Category 4)

2022: Ian (Category 4)

2023: Idalia (Category 3)

2024: Helene (Category 4)
Milton (Category 3)


I think the streak is tied currently with some time in the 1910s.

IIRC, Delta was a 100 mph category 2 at landfall in LA, not a category 4- but the point still stands.

What's incredible to me is how many category 4+ landfalls have occurred along the gulf coast alone since 2017: Harvey, (17), Michael (18), Laura (20), Ida (21), Ian (22), and Helene (24), for a total of 6 in only 8 years. Even more incredible is that since 2018, there have been 4 hurricanes (all the aforementioned but Harvey and Helene) that made landfall with MSW of 150 mph or greater. Prior to 2018, there had been a TOTAL of 5 (Last Island 1856, Indianola 1886, Freeport 1932, Camille 1969, Charley 2004) storms to do so at comparable intensities. While I do think its likely that a fair share of storms were likely underestimated at landfall prior to recon, it is still almost hard to fathom just how unprecedented the frequency of upper-echelon gulf coast landfalls has been over the past decade.

(PS- I'm pulling this climo from memory, so if there's something incorrect or that I missed here, please correct me!!)

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1876644238500184570

[kevin]

January CanSIPS forecast shows even more extreme precipitation anomalies in the MDR/Caribbean/open Atlantic than the 2024 forecast around this time of the year in 2024. And the SST anomaly picture might be one of the most extreme ones I've ever seen with areas in the Atlantic with a temperature anomaly larger than +2C. Still a lot of uncertainty for months to come, but this isn't a comforting prospect.

Precipitation anomaly (ASO)


SST anomaly (ASO)

[Category5Kaiju]

It would really be something if somehow, 2025 ends up being more active ACE-wise than last year....while I'm not banking on it currently, there seems to be something about the upper echelon ACE seasons in recent memory (like 2004, 2005, and 2017, each with 200+ ACE) in which they basically happened when least expected to. If I remember correctly, 2004 had the El Nino and completely dead June/July that somewhat dampered expectations while 2017 also had early El Nino expectations and low ACE-producing storms from June-late August.

2020 and 2024 were largely expected to be extremely active and record-breaking but didn't crack 200 ACE. It remains to be seen what 2025 will do.

[WeatherBoy2000]

It would really be something if somehow, 2025 ends up being more active ACE-wise than last year....while I'm not banking on it currently, there seems to be something about the upper echelon ACE seasons in recent memory (like 2004, 2005, and 2017, each with 200+ ACE) in which they basically happened when least expected to. If I remember correctly, 2004 had the El Nino and completely dead June/July that somewhat dampered expectations while 2017 also had early El Nino expectations and low ACE-producing storms from June-late August.

2020 and 2024 were largely expected to be extremely active and record-breaking but didn't crack 200 ACE. It remains to be seen what 2025 will do.

Even under the best of set-ups, 200+ ace seasons are a crap shoot due to how rare they are overall. Only eight have ever been recorded since the first in 1893, and only four have occurred since seasonal forecasting began back in the early 80s. Everything has to come together just perfectly for it to happen, no weird peak season shutdowns like last year.

[mixedDanilo.E]

January CanSIPS forecast shows even more extreme precipitation anomalies in the MDR/Caribbean/open Atlantic than the 2024 forecast around this time of the year in 2024. And the SST anomaly picture might be one of the most extreme ones I've ever seen with areas in the Atlantic with a temperature anomaly larger than +2C. Still a lot of uncertainty for months to come, but this isn't a comforting prospect.

Precipitation anomaly (ASO)
https://i.imgur.com/wPqewhx.png

SST anomaly (ASO)
https://i.imgur.com/V3nojrv.png

Not really putting much faith into the CanSIPS especially this far out because of the fact that they showed such an aggressive look last year for the peak, especially August and look how that turned out.

[WeatherBoy2000]

January CanSIPS forecast shows even more extreme precipitation anomalies in the MDR/Caribbean/open Atlantic than the 2024 forecast around this time of the year in 2024. And the SST anomaly picture might be one of the most extreme ones I've ever seen with areas in the Atlantic with a temperature anomaly larger than +2C. Still a lot of uncertainty for months to come, but this isn't a comforting prospect.

Precipitation anomaly (ASO)
https://i.imgur.com/wPqewhx.png

SST anomaly (ASO)
https://i.imgur.com/V3nojrv.png

Not really putting much faith into the CanSIPS especially this far out because of the fact that they showed such an aggressive look last year for the peak, especially August and look how that turned out.

Tbh all the models/forecasters dropped ball for the peak last year, not just the cansips.

[cycloneye]

Caribbean Sea heat content is very high and is only late January.

[mixedDanilo.E]

January CanSIPS forecast shows even more extreme precipitation anomalies in the MDR/Caribbean/open Atlantic than the 2024 forecast around this time of the year in 2024. And the SST anomaly picture might be one of the most extreme ones I've ever seen with areas in the Atlantic with a temperature anomaly larger than +2C. Still a lot of uncertainty for months to come, but this isn't a comforting prospect.

Precipitation anomaly (ASO)
https://i.imgur.com/wPqewhx.png

SST anomaly (ASO)
https://i.imgur.com/V3nojrv.png

Not really putting much faith into the CanSIPS especially this far out because of the fact that they showed such an aggressive look last year for the peak, especially August and look how that turned out.

Tbh all the models/forecasters dropped ball for the peak last year, not just the cansips.

That's true but the CanSIPS seemed to me to be the most aggressive. I guess it's more of a note that we shouldn't trust any climate models this far out.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1886040710819860843



Excerpt from Andy's post at X.

The ongoing +NAO has definitely enhanced trades over the Atlantic and led to some cooling of the MDR over the last 2 weeks. Models suggest we could revert to a -NAO again by the end of February. It'll be interesting to see the back-and-forth and where we settle as we head into Spring. Still several months from the start of hurricane season.

[Travorum]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1887490259530776664




excerpts from the twitter discussion:

Eric Webb:

The latest Meteo-France forecast generally seems to be hinting at an active, but not quite “hyperactive” season in the Atlantic this year, w/ upward motion anomalies centered over Africa & the Western Indian Ocean.

Andy Hazelton:

Seems like a lot of it will depend on spring NAO (eroding or reinforcing Atlantic warmth) and MJO (nudging us towards warmer ENSO, but how warm?). I'd lean a little less active than last year as subtropical warmth tends to build as we get further from El Niño, so stability will probably be an issue.

[cycloneye]

The febuary NMME for ASO run looks to favor recurvings from the Caribbean, but is still early. Carribbean looks very dry.

[Teban54]

On this date last year (February 10, 11am EST), the 2024 indicators thread had 274 posts. This year, the thread currently has 34 posts.

Looks like expectations for 2025 have certainly been curtailed. Is that because conditions as currently forecast are not as pristine, or the unexpected activity pattern last year compared to pre-season indicators made people more cautious of them, or simply burnout after last year? I'd say probably all three.

[Category5Kaiju]

On this date last year (February 10, 11am EST), the 2024 indicators thread had 274 posts. This year, the thread currently has 34 posts.

Looks like expectations for 2025 have certainly been curtailed. Is that because conditions as currently forecast are not as pristine, or the unexpected activity pattern last year compared to pre-season indicators made people more cautious of them, or simply burnout after last year? I'd say probably all three.

Yeah, I mean I've had other matters to handle hence why I haven't been as active here as I am usually (at least, as of yet). However, I will say that projected conditions seem favorable for at least an above average season (but perhaps not hyperactive, although never say never), models seem to suggest a non-El Nino phase for peak season as the most likely outcome (whether that is weak Nina or some kind of neutral), and we are stepping out of one of the most phenomenal and destructive Atlantic seasons on record.

Dare I say it, but at least at this point in time, there really doesn't seem much to talk about beyond ENSO evolution. Sure, we can speculate if Imelda will be the big bad of the season. Sure, we can speculate if the SE Florida shield falters. Sure, we can speculate if it will be a big Caribbean year or a 2010-style fish parade. But at this point in time, I think there doesn't seem to be any overtly alarming indications of something truly extraordinary happening, and many are by default expecting yet another above average season that brings with it one or several destructive cyclones.

[cycloneye]

On this date last year (February 10, 11am EST), the 2024 indicators thread had 274 posts. This year, the thread currently has 34 posts.

Looks like expectations for 2025 have certainly been curtailed. Is that because conditions as currently forecast are not as pristine, or the unexpected activity pattern last year compared to pre-season indicators made people more cautious of them, or simply burnout after last year? I'd say probably all three.

I hope the 2025 S2K numbers poll passes the 100 participation mark.

[crownweather]

On this date last year (February 10, 11am EST), the 2024 indicators thread had 274 posts. This year, the thread currently has 34 posts.

Looks like expectations for 2025 have certainly been curtailed. Is that because conditions as currently forecast are not as pristine, or the unexpected activity pattern last year compared to pre-season indicators made people more cautious of them, or simply burnout after last year? I'd say probably all three.

Yeah, I mean I've had other matters to handle hence why I haven't been as active here as I am usually (at least, as of yet). However, I will say that projected conditions seem favorable for at least an above average season (but perhaps not hyperactive, although never say never), models seem to suggest a non-El Nino phase for peak season as the most likely outcome (whether that is weak Nina or some kind of neutral), and we are stepping out of one of the most phenomenal and destructive Atlantic seasons on record.

Dare I say it, but at least at this point in time, there really doesn't seem much to talk about beyond ENSO evolution. Sure, we can speculate if Imelda will be the big bad of the season. Sure, we can speculate if the SE Florida shield falters. Sure, we can speculate if it will be a big Caribbean year or a 2010-style fish parade. But at this point in time, I think there doesn't seem to be any overtly alarming indications of something truly extraordinary happening, and many are by default expecting yet another above average season that brings with it one or several destructive cyclones.

I know for myself I haven't looked too deep into the data for the 2025 season - there's going to be PLENTY of time to do that in the upcoming couple of months. I've been pretty busy with other things plus was taking a bit of breather from the aftermath of the 2024 season.

One thing that I have been busy doing is getting the word out, including writing & calling my representatives & senators & helping to advocate for what's been happening with NOAA/NWS, including the potential massive budget cuts to NOAA/NWS. Have heard rumors of a 50% cut in personnel & a 30% budget cut. That's taken up a lot of my time over the last week.

But there will be plenty of time to look at the data in the coming months to see what the hurricane season might be like - that is if there is data to look at (if it isn't defunded & privatized) & a NWS to provide warnings.

[chaser1]

Like all prior years, I personally try to focus more toward the "where" then the "what". Meaning, where do I think tropical cyclones will tend to form, and then where do I think the result of that along with conditions affecting shear/intensification along with steering pattern might result in their ultimate tracks. Thereafter and closer in do I begin to consider ENSO, SST's or other factors to try and project how busy the season may end up. Thus far, I just haven't felt that inclined to look down that path quite yet. I think I'm still experiencing some level of burn-out from last season Part of that likely due to the degree of activity focused in the far Western Atlantic and increased threat/impact to SO many people as a result (especially closer to home here in Florida); Perhaps a level of burn-out also in part due to the whiplash effect of inexplicable periods of tropical cyclone activity and inactivity.

I am also ESPECIALLY concerned about those same rumored NOAA budget cuts and the potential outcome that could arise. Forget the obvious implications to the annual recon budget for "in-situ" tropical cyclone events, forget funding that might be allocated toward drone or other long-distance recon/research, and forget what a shortfall of funds might mean should we experience satellite monitoring hiccups or outright failure due to some solar CME or unknown mechanical glitch. I'm pretty sure that most of us would agree that the one thing that could largely assist.... or detract from, short to mid-term warnings and potential storm impact threat would be enhancing (or at least avoiding eventual degradation of) our data collection means which is eventually assimilated by Global and Regional forecast models. The impact to these critical forecast tools as well as local NWS and/or other airport or grant funded projects could mean an impact to local data collection, reporting and communication, might include software for satellite analysis, funding for remote data collecting stations, local radar, weather balloons, various type of ocean data gathering buoys, to even some electronic data collection and communication equipment from aircraft observations. Let's face it - an increased number of data points (for all levels of the atmosphere) enhances forecast accuracy. A decreased number of data points as a result of either closure or loss of some data point locations, OR the degradation of existing data collection equipment from funding loss that impacts cleaning, repairing, maintenance, or upgrading weather sensing equipment & electronics, structures, buoys, etc would simply compromise forecast accuracy that we have come to expect and rely on.

All in all, prior to reaching the Spring barrier, along with unresolved questions regarding last hurricane season and then coupled with yet to be know impact from potential NOAA budget cuts leave me inclined to think that we
have a limited grasp to accurately anticipate the upcoming hurricane season OR whether additional factors that could impact forecasting might result in an even bigger risk to some locations.

[cycloneye]

This thread is basically dead on Febuary 17th. Let's see if with this post, there are some discussions.

@BenNollWeather
Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the tropical Pacific can trigger El Niño development by moving warm water from west to east.

The guidance is not currently suggesting such activity is likely in the months ahead.

If El Niño was to develop in 2025, a mid-year WWB would help.



@BenNollWeather
Atlantic hurricane season is little more than three months away.

Early signs are that unusual rising motion may occur over the Atlantic/Africa during early summer, which can drive tropical activity.

However, the lack of a La Niña may work against another hyperactive season.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1891618067999785083