WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Hayabusa]

93W INVEST 250209 1200 7.7N 114.8E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 110600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 113E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120153ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2N
112.1E, APPROXIMATELY 267 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SPRATLY ISLANDS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT BUT DISORGANIZED LLCC. FURTHERMORE, A
120211Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE REVEALS ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS (15-20
KNOTS) FUNNELING ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM BUT NOT YET TURNING EAST AND
WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO FURTHER
INCREASING SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 12FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.6S 166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 120300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[StormWeather]

The JTWC has noted this system again:

Code: Select all

 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.9N
104.6E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO CURVED BANDS. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEFINED CURVED
BANDING FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIDE. ALSO A PARTIAL 171642Z
ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOT
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH AREAS OF 25-
35 KNOT WINDS, UNDER THE CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION, FUNNELING BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND THE MALAYSIAN
COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (27-28C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING THIS AREA UP AND DO NOT SUPPORT CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 93W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.