Texas Winter 2024-2025

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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8521 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:49 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Front coming into the picture in southern Kansas.

https://i.imgur.com/92jhzHv.png

I keep reading 3pm for fropa here. Does it look like it could come in earlier than that? Southern Kansas isn't that far.


That's a lot of very cold air not too far north of us all things considered
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8522 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:51 pm

Brent wrote::double: also it's gotten noticeably darker here

https://i.ibb.co/dsQ2BJfz/FB-IMG-1739834293230.jpg


Mighty cold wind chill map up north. Just thankful most of us further south will climb above freezing Wed & Thursday afternoon. Should limit some of the sting from this event and hopefully prevent a lot of pipes from busting not to mention keeping our grid stable courtesy of some late February sunshine.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8523 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:07 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Brent wrote::double: also it's gotten noticeably darker here

https://i.ibb.co/dsQ2BJfz/FB-IMG-1739834293230.jpg


Mighty cold wind chill map up north. Just thankful most of us further south will climb above freezing Wed & Thursday afternoon. Should limit some of the sting from this event and hopefully prevent a lot of pipes from busting not to mention keeping our grid stable courtesy of some late February sunshine.


It’s barely even gonna freeze where I’m at lol this front looks to lose its punch big time as it pushes through the state. Won’t really be a big deal down here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8524 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:10 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Brent wrote::double: also it's gotten noticeably darker here

https://i.ibb.co/dsQ2BJfz/FB-IMG-1739834293230.jpg


Mighty cold wind chill map up north. Just thankful most of us further south will climb above freezing Wed & Thursday afternoon. Should limit some of the sting from this event and hopefully prevent a lot of pipes from busting not to mention keeping our grid stable courtesy of some late February sunshine.


It’s barely even gonna freeze where I’m at lol this front looks to lose its punch big time as it pushes through the state. Won’t really be a big deal down here.
lose its punch?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8525 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:12 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Mighty cold wind chill map up north. Just thankful most of us further south will climb above freezing Wed & Thursday afternoon. Should limit some of the sting from this event and hopefully prevent a lot of pipes from busting not to mention keeping our grid stable courtesy of some late February sunshine.


It’s barely even gonna freeze where I’m at lol this front looks to lose its punch big time as it pushes through the state. Won’t really be a big deal down here.
lose its punch?


Yep. The cold is going to moderate quickly as it pushes through Texas. Massive difference across the state. More so than usual.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8526 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:26 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Front coming into the picture in southern Kansas.

https://i.imgur.com/92jhzHv.png

I keep reading 3pm for fropa here. Does it look like it could come in earlier than that? Southern Kansas isn't that far.


I think 1-3pm is a good range. To really bust you'd have to look at an early morning passage.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8527 Postby DallasAg » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:Front coming into the picture in southern Kansas.

https://i.imgur.com/92jhzHv.png

Interesting to see the first sub-freezing temps on OK Mesonet are oozing in from the NE rather than the NW. Tulsa may drop below freezing before some parts of the OK panhandle do. Don't see that happen very much with arctic air.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8528 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:42 pm

DallasAg wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Front coming into the picture in southern Kansas.

https://i.imgur.com/92jhzHv.png

Interesting to see the first sub-freezing temps on OK Mesonet are oozing in from the NE rather than the NW. Tulsa may drop below freezing before some parts of the OK panhandle do. Don't see that happen very much with arctic air.


There is already a cold air mass in place to the NE being reinforced. We will see the real surge come down the Panhandle, western OK, and NW Texas very quickly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8529 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
It’s barely even gonna freeze where I’m at lol this front looks to lose its punch big time as it pushes through the state. Won’t really be a big deal down here.
lose its punch?


Yep. The cold is going to moderate quickly as it pushes through Texas. Massive difference across the state. More so than usual.

Is it because of lack of Snow cover?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8530 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:54 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:lose its punch?


Yep. The cold is going to moderate quickly as it pushes through Texas. Massive difference across the state. More so than usual.

Is it because of lack of Snow cover?


No, Wxman57's Wall and Global Warming.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8531 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:
DallasAg wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Front coming into the picture in southern Kansas.

https://i.imgur.com/92jhzHv.png

Interesting to see the first sub-freezing temps on OK Mesonet are oozing in from the NE rather than the NW. Tulsa may drop below freezing before some parts of the OK panhandle do. Don't see that happen very much with arctic air.


There is already a cold air mass in place to the NE being reinforced. We will see the real surge come down the Panhandle, western OK, and NW Texas very quickly.

Yep, interesting to have it warmer in Amarillo than Beaumont right now. That changes in the next few minutes though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8532 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:01 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:lose its punch?


Yep. The cold is going to moderate quickly as it pushes through Texas. Massive difference across the state. More so than usual.

Is it because of lack of Snow cover?


Supposedly it’s hard to get cold deep into Texas mid to late February, but idk how much of that is true because I’ve gotten down to 19°F before in early March. That was 23 years ago though lol

I also got down to 14°F in mid Feb 2021.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8533 Postby Gotwood » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:08 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Yep. The cold is going to moderate quickly as it pushes through Texas. Massive difference across the state. More so than usual.

Is it because of lack of Snow cover?


Supposedly it’s hard to get cold deep into Texas mid to late February, but idk how much of that is true because I’ve gotten down to 19°F before in early March. That was 23 years ago though lol

I’m going to assume it’s due to lack of ridge to the east and location of HP. (I’m not a meteorologist so probably wrong lol)
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8534 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:15 pm

Yeah it's kind of weird up here actually to see OKC barely get any snow and us possibly cash in... Usually it's both of us or neither pretty much

If the forecast holds up anyway

I'm guessing that's why it's not as good in Texas because it's not even as good on the snow front down in OKC and points southwest especially

Like there's still a big question about if there's a very sharp gradient nearby tomorrow
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8535 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:22 pm

Surprise surprise! Big changes on the latest Hi-Res models, much quicker with front and freezing line tomorrow ….sleet/frz rain becoming more of a possibility on the back in of the precip across North Texas now.

Here is the temp change from prior run at 7pm tomorrow ….

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8536 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:36 pm

orangeblood wrote:Surprise surprise! Big changes on the latest Hi-Res models, much quicker with front and freezing line tomorrow ….sleet/frz rain becoming more of a possibility on the back in of the precip across North Texas now.

Here is the temp change from prior run at 7pm tomorrow ….

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1739836800/1739926800-ysxs9g1X9Jg.png


Where are you seeing the precip change? That's only a temperature map or are you just projecting because the temperature will be lower that they'll be more frozen and that the precipitation is still forecast to be there?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8537 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:39 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Surprise surprise! Big changes on the latest Hi-Res models, much quicker with front and freezing line tomorrow ….sleet/frz rain becoming more of a possibility on the back in of the precip across North Texas now.

Here is the temp change from prior run at 7pm tomorrow ….

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1739836800/1739926800-ysxs9g1X9Jg.png


Where are you seeing the precip change? That's only a temperature map or are you just projecting because the temperature will be lower that they'll be more frozen and that the precipitation is still forecast to be there?


The NAM has a bit of precip along and just behind the front. If the cold outruns it then there could be a band of sleet and maybe snow mix.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8538 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:47 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8539 Postby wxman22 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:49 pm

Just yesterday most of the mesoscale models had the freezing line not getting here until around 12 pm. The latest runs now have the freezing line reaching Wichita Falls around 7-8 am now. With a quick changeover to frozen precip occurring almost as soon as the precipitation starts in the morning.
Last edited by wxman22 on Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8540 Postby Gotwood » Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:49 pm

Ntxw wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Surprise surprise! Big changes on the latest Hi-Res models, much quicker with front and freezing line tomorrow ….sleet/frz rain becoming more of a possibility on the back in of the precip across North Texas now.

Here is the temp change from prior run at 7pm tomorrow ….

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1739836800/1739926800-ysxs9g1X9Jg.png


Where are you seeing the precip change? That's only a temperature map or are you just projecting because the temperature will be lower that they'll be more frozen and that the precipitation is still forecast to be there?


The NAM has a bit of precip along and just behind the front. If the cold outruns it then there could be a band of sleet and maybe snow mix.

Also see the NAM has some frozen stuff showing up Friday as well.
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