SPAC: INVEST 98P

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98P INVEST 250215 0000 16.0S 176.0E SHEM 15 0

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 https://x.com/TrevorTropicsWX/status/1891658148651446499

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.0S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 173.0W, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A 180022Z ASCAT METOP-B
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS AT
20-25 KNOTS AND A WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS. A
SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION, WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITH A
BROAD TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CORAL SEA ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHEAST OF
FRENCH POLYNESIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 98P IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT PROVIDED BY
A SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 98P, HOWEVER ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TIMELINES. GFS IS THE PRIMARY MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.