Texas Winter 2024-2025

[rylo7956]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Arctic cold front will arrive today, bringing strong north
winds with gusts up to 35 mph along with dangerous wind chills
of -10 to 10 degrees through Thursday morning.

- Temperatures will fall below freezing across North Texas this
afternoon and evening with light freezing rain and drizzle
occurring. This could result in icy conditions mainly on
bridges and overpasses.

- There is also another chance for rain on Saturday, with a low
potential for a transition to freezing rain on Saturday morning.
This scenario is still uncertain.

With this morning`s forecast issuance, brief Winter Weather
Advisories were issued for portions of North Texas which will go
into effect later today due to the chance for light freezing rain
and drizzle to result in icing mainly on bridges and overpasses.
Overall, little has changed with the forecast, aside from a
slightly faster arrival of the sub-freezing airmass which
unsurprisingly is best handled by the RAP/HRRR and 3 km NAM. The
main time windows of concern for light ice accumulations are noon
to 6 PM for western North Texas, and about 5 PM to 10 PM for areas
from the Metroplex northward.

Another potential hazard is a chance for lake-effect snow to
materialize on the southern sides of North Texas lakes tonight
into early Wednesday morning. There may be a brief window of time
where sufficient moisture remains in place within the lowest 1 km
with temperatures at the base of the inversion and cloud layer
falling as low as -10 to -12C. This would support dendritic
growth with light snow flurries developing beneath the warm nose.
No snow will be mentioned in the forecast for the sake of
simplicity at this time, but this may bear watching heading into
Wednesday morning as some very localized accumulations would be a
possibility.

Otherwise, temperature are still on track to reach their coldest
values of the season with widespread lows in the teens tonight
into Wednesday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather
Advisory remain in effect, with wind chill values of -10 to 0
degrees expected roughly form the DFW Metroplex northwestward.
Despite gradually clearing skies during the daytime Wednesday,
afternoon highs will remain near or below freezing for much of the
area, with the exception of Central Texas which should manage to
reach the mid 30s or so. Wind speeds will remain gusty the entire
day though, with maximum wind chill values only reaching the teens
and lower 20s.

I was just thinking if this front could cause Lake effect Snow. Couple of years ago Coppell got almost 1.5 inches of lake effect snow and with water temps in the low 50's maybe we see a repeat tonight

[Brent]

We even had some freezing drizzle and now the roads are icy

It's brisk out there snow just starting now

[Ntxw]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Arctic cold front will arrive today, bringing strong north
winds with gusts up to 35 mph along with dangerous wind chills
of -10 to 10 degrees through Thursday morning.

- Temperatures will fall below freezing across North Texas this
afternoon and evening with light freezing rain and drizzle
occurring. This could result in icy conditions mainly on
bridges and overpasses.

- There is also another chance for rain on Saturday, with a low
potential for a transition to freezing rain on Saturday morning.
This scenario is still uncertain.

With this morning`s forecast issuance, brief Winter Weather
Advisories were issued for portions of North Texas which will go
into effect later today due to the chance for light freezing rain
and drizzle to result in icing mainly on bridges and overpasses.
Overall, little has changed with the forecast, aside from a
slightly faster arrival of the sub-freezing airmass which
unsurprisingly is best handled by the RAP/HRRR and 3 km NAM. The
main time windows of concern for light ice accumulations are noon
to 6 PM for western North Texas, and about 5 PM to 10 PM for areas
from the Metroplex northward.

Another potential hazard is a chance for lake-effect snow to
materialize on the southern sides of North Texas lakes tonight
into early Wednesday morning. There may be a brief window of time
where sufficient moisture remains in place within the lowest 1 km
with temperatures at the base of the inversion and cloud layer
falling as low as -10 to -12C. This would support dendritic
growth with light snow flurries developing beneath the warm nose.
No snow will be mentioned in the forecast for the sake of
simplicity at this time, but this may bear watching heading into
Wednesday morning as some very localized accumulations would be a
possibility.

Otherwise, temperature are still on track to reach their coldest
values of the season with widespread lows in the teens tonight
into Wednesday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather
Advisory remain in effect, with wind chill values of -10 to 0
degrees expected roughly form the DFW Metroplex northwestward.
Despite gradually clearing skies during the daytime Wednesday,
afternoon highs will remain near or below freezing for much of the
area, with the exception of Central Texas which should manage to
reach the mid 30s or so. Wind speeds will remain gusty the entire
day though, with maximum wind chill values only reaching the teens
and lower 20s.

I was just thinking if this front could cause Lake effect Snow. Couple of years ago Coppell got almost 1.5 inches of lake effect snow and with water temps in the low 50's maybe we see a repeat tonight

I mentioned this the past few days. The pieces are in place for possibility of LES. It doesn't mean it will happen but you look for check boxes for the DFW area Lakes. You can have initiation on a bigger lake like Texoma and then it enhanced downstream by Lewisville etc.

1. Overhead S/W moving W to E despite dry, provides mid-level moisture
2. Winds that are northerly or even better northeasterly from low to higher ground
3. Snow growth close to the ground with temps in the teens

[Brent]

Semi across the interstate in OKC somewhere

Starting to really snow now here

[Lagreeneyes03]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Arctic cold front will arrive today, bringing strong north
winds with gusts up to 35 mph along with dangerous wind chills
of -10 to 10 degrees through Thursday morning.

- Temperatures will fall below freezing across North Texas this
afternoon and evening with light freezing rain and drizzle
occurring. This could result in icy conditions mainly on
bridges and overpasses.

- There is also another chance for rain on Saturday, with a low
potential for a transition to freezing rain on Saturday morning.
This scenario is still uncertain.

With this morning`s forecast issuance, brief Winter Weather
Advisories were issued for portions of North Texas which will go
into effect later today due to the chance for light freezing rain
and drizzle to result in icing mainly on bridges and overpasses.
Overall, little has changed with the forecast, aside from a
slightly faster arrival of the sub-freezing airmass which
unsurprisingly is best handled by the RAP/HRRR and 3 km NAM. The
main time windows of concern for light ice accumulations are noon
to 6 PM for western North Texas, and about 5 PM to 10 PM for areas
from the Metroplex northward.

Another potential hazard is a chance for lake-effect snow to
materialize on the southern sides of North Texas lakes tonight
into early Wednesday morning. There may be a brief window of time
where sufficient moisture remains in place within the lowest 1 km
with temperatures at the base of the inversion and cloud layer
falling as low as -10 to -12C. This would support dendritic
growth with light snow flurries developing beneath the warm nose.
No snow will be mentioned in the forecast for the sake of
simplicity at this time, but this may bear watching heading into
Wednesday morning as some very localized accumulations would be a
possibility.

Otherwise, temperature are still on track to reach their coldest
values of the season with widespread lows in the teens tonight
into Wednesday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather
Advisory remain in effect, with wind chill values of -10 to 0
degrees expected roughly form the DFW Metroplex northwestward.
Despite gradually clearing skies during the daytime Wednesday,
afternoon highs will remain near or below freezing for much of the
area, with the exception of Central Texas which should manage to
reach the mid 30s or so. Wind speeds will remain gusty the entire
day though, with maximum wind chill values only reaching the teens
and lower 20s.

I was just thinking if this front could cause Lake effect Snow. Couple of years ago Coppell got almost 1.5 inches of lake effect snow and with water temps in the low 50's maybe we see a repeat tonight

I mentioned this the past few days. The pieces are in place for possibility of LES. It doesn't mean it will happen but you look for check boxes for the DFW area Lakes. You can have initiation on a bigger lake like Texoma and then it enhanced downstream by Lewisville etc.

1. Overhead S/W moving W to E despite dry, provides mid-level moisture
2. Winds that are northerly or even better northeasterly from low to higher ground
3. Snow growth close to the ground with temps in the teens

We got the LES in Grapevine too, that year.

[Portastorm]

Potentially dangerous evening commute across the DFW Metroplex. Light frz rain/drizzle/sleet with temps in mid 20's is arguably the most dangerous driving situation you can have...drivers can get overconfident going from bone dry roadways to a thin ice sheet in an instant. This scenario happened in Feb 2021 in downtown Fort Worth with multiple fatality pileups

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/instant_ptype/1739880000/1739934000-WkmjLz08BKg.png

I'm a bit intrigued by some of the meso models showing patchy freezing drizzle tonight even down here. It won't be much if any but as we know, it doesn't take much to create traffic havoc. Hope it doesn't get too nasty up there in the Metroplex.

[orangeblood]

Potentially dangerous evening commute across the DFW Metroplex. Light frz rain/drizzle/sleet with temps in mid 20's is arguably the most dangerous driving situation you can have...drivers can get overconfident going from bone dry roadways to a thin ice sheet in an instant. This scenario happened in Feb 2021 in downtown Fort Worth with multiple fatality pileups

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/instant_ptype/1739880000/1739934000-WkmjLz08BKg.png

I'm a bit intrigued by some of the meso models showing patchy freezing drizzle tonight even down here. It won't be much if any but as we know, it doesn't take much to create traffic havoc. Hope it doesn't get too nasty up there in the Metroplex.

Yeah, that's definitely a frz drizzle reflectivity signature in Austin on the NAM3k around midnight tonight

[Ntxw]

Front is coming through Parker and Wise counties. Should be entering the western portions of the metroplex soon.

WF 25F
Graham 31F
Jacksboro 36F
Eastland 32F

Amarillo 7F
OKC 19F
Tulsa 18F - Tundra going on here

[Ntxw]

Just to note the models are doing well in Oklahoma (OPs even 12z initiation) but are behind in the panhandle with temps. Only the ICON initiated well.

[rwfromkansas]

Things look potentially more dangerous than before for DFW.

I still have nightmares about the FW pile-up. We went to school that day in Keller, and it was perfectly dry up here in N FW. But, that little patch on 35 created that problem down south just a few miles that caused such horror.

If I were a district, I would cancel to be safe tomorrow, but I bet most won't in DFW.

It's tricky because ultimately, a light bit of ice on the roads WILL evaporate. So, it depends on how much there is if it will be there in the morning. Most assume if there is ice at night there will be in the morning, but not with a dry cold north wind. That will evaporate a lot of it.

But, after 2021, I would frankly want to be more cautious.

[wxman22]

Still getting consistent freezing drizzle everything outside is being coated by a thin glaze. The HRRR is showing some mesoscale snow band forming in the panhandle and moving through here late afternoon.

[Portastorm]

Things look potentially more dangerous than before for DFW.

I still have nightmares about the FW pile-up. We went to school that day in Keller, and it was perfectly dry up here in N FW. But, that little patch on 35 created that problem down south just a few miles that caused such horror.

If I were a district, I would cancel to be safe tomorrow, but I bet most won't in DFW.

It's tricky because ultimately, a light bit of ice on the roads WILL evaporate. So, it depends on how much there is if it will be there in the morning. Most assume if there is ice at night there will be in the morning, but not with a dry cold north wind. That will evaporate a lot of it.

But, after 2021, I would frankly want to be more cautious.

Yep. Along those lines, me and txtwister78 were talking about schools down here (South Central Texas) could consider delayed openings due to the brutal (and dangerous) wind chills predicted for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. I'm surprised I have not seen much on that on social media.

[Brent]

dry powder alert

[Wthrfan]

Definitely cold here in OKC but the moisture is a big bust, especially northern OK. We may get an inch here in the northern suburbs of OKC. Predictions for 6-10 inches up around Ponca City have been downgraded to 2-4 inches.

Brent, I hope you fare better in Tulsa.

[rwfromkansas]

Things look potentially more dangerous than before for DFW.

I still have nightmares about the FW pile-up. We went to school that day in Keller, and it was perfectly dry up here in N FW. But, that little patch on 35 created that problem down south just a few miles that caused such horror.

If I were a district, I would cancel to be safe tomorrow, but I bet most won't in DFW.

It's tricky because ultimately, a light bit of ice on the roads WILL evaporate. So, it depends on how much there is if it will be there in the morning. Most assume if there is ice at night there will be in the morning, but not with a dry cold north wind. That will evaporate a lot of it.

But, after 2021, I would frankly want to be more cautious.

Yep. Along those lines, me and txtwister78 were talking about schools down here (South Central Texas) could consider delayed openings due to the brutal (and dangerous) wind chills predicted for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. I'm surprised I have not seen much on that on social media.

Yeah, it's the super cold temps that magnify the situation IMO.

[Stratton23]

Doesnt look like winter is done in the first week of march, not from what ive been seeing and hearing from folks like ryab maue, even if its just 60’s and 40’s, bring it on! Sure beats the heck out of those 80’s any day of the week!

[Brent]

Definitely cold here in OKC but the moisture is a big bust, especially northern OK. We may get an inch here in the northern suburbs of OKC. Predictions for 6-10 inches up around Ponca City have been downgraded to 2-4 inches.

Brent, I hope you fare better in Tulsa.

Yeah it's supposed to pick up after lunch but I dunno... I mean this was a pretty fast flip and we've got like 10 hours ahead of us. You would think we're good but who knows when I checked the hi res models at 5am they all had 6 inches here

Even the NWS caved they were still lower than that earlier

[txtwister78]

Things look potentially more dangerous than before for DFW.

I still have nightmares about the FW pile-up. We went to school that day in Keller, and it was perfectly dry up here in N FW. But, that little patch on 35 created that problem down south just a few miles that caused such horror.

If I were a district, I would cancel to be safe tomorrow, but I bet most won't in DFW.

It's tricky because ultimately, a light bit of ice on the roads WILL evaporate. So, it depends on how much there is if it will be there in the morning. Most assume if there is ice at night there will be in the morning, but not with a dry cold north wind. That will evaporate a lot of it.

But, after 2021, I would frankly want to be more cautious.

Yep. Along those lines, me and txtwister78 were talking about schools down here (South Central Texas) could consider delayed openings due to the brutal (and dangerous) wind chills predicted for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. I'm surprised I have not seen much on that on social media.

Yeah not much of a mention down here either so far but perhaps that will change if/when the extreme cold watch is upgraded to warning for Thursday morning?

[Brent]

Bismarck was only 7 degrees short of their all time record apparently

11 days before March!

[orangeblood]

Doesnt look like winter is done in the first week of march, not from what ive been seeing and hearing from folks like ryab maue, even if its just 60’s and 40’s, bring it on! Sure beats the heck out of those 80’s any day of the week!

Agreed, March looks below normal and maybe quite significantly. EPO looks like it's going to nose dive 1st of March