Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8821 Postby Haris » Wed Feb 19, 2025 11:55 am

Still snowing in N Dallas lightly. The great lakes at home doing gods work :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8822 Postby jasons2k » Wed Feb 19, 2025 12:06 pm

It’s a chilly 29.2 here at 11am. Won’t be seeing 48 today.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8823 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 12:06 pm

Saw a few flurries this morning on the way to work. Seeing a bit of a trend in the short-range guidance regarding the potential for an earlier start to precip across SC TX and therefore with colder temps the threat of freezing rain for the early morning commute Friday increasing as opposed to the globals wanting to hold this off Friday night/Saturday morning when temps were slightly warmer. Latest extended RAP shows this as well as the NAM. HRRR should be in range on the next update to see if this trend continues.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/?parms=2025021915-RAP-SGP-winter-ptype-49-0-100
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8824 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 12:25 pm

Some of the mesocale models ( NAM/ RAP) are getting awfully close to showing light freezing rain in the houston metro, looks like those models have freezing rain breaking out from SC texas to western parts of se texas, as txtwister78 said it’s definitely worth watching, even just a light glazing will be enough to cause travel issues
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8825 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 12:31 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Some of the mesocale models ( NAM/ RAP) are getting awfully close to showing light freezing rain in the houston metro, looks like those models have freezing rain breaking out from SC texas to western parts of se texas, as txtwister78 said it’s definitely worth watching, even just a light glazing will be enough to cause travel issues


Yeah WRF members are also seeing it so definitely something to watch now as temps are a few degrees colder during this time period as opposed to the Fri evening into Saturday morning hours and with the precip beginning overnight into early morning Friday, I could see some travel issues from SA (bridges/overpasses) but especially points north where temps are in the mid to upper 20's across the HC and portions of the Austin region.

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Last edited by txtwister78 on Wed Feb 19, 2025 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8826 Postby cstrunk » Wed Feb 19, 2025 12:33 pm

23F and very light flurries still in Longview. NWS lowered the high from 34F to 32F. Unless the sun peaks out I don't see us reaching that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8827 Postby TomballEd » Wed Feb 19, 2025 12:45 pm

Temps falling slowly all morning, 32F 2 hours in a row at IAH but dewpoint is dropping. Very light precip probably won't ice roads locally if it happens, warmth in the ground and late February sun isn't completely blocked by clouds.

If it lasted past sunset, maybe. Just dry out my window.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8828 Postby JDawg512 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 12:54 pm

Been seeing on and off light flurries here at the Rain Cave as well. Cute, but that's all I have to say about it. I'm just hoping we can actually get above 32 at some point this afternoon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8829 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 19, 2025 12:59 pm

16F almost feels hot now. If only these days would extend a little longer. I am not looking forward to summer acclimated to this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8830 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 1:00 pm

JDawg512 wrote:Been seeing on and off light flurries here at the Rain Cave as well. Cute, but that's all I have to say about it. I'm just hoping we can actually get above 32 at some point this afternoon.


No way that’s happening for your area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8831 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 1:06 pm

https://youtu.be/Snci3iLzvPg?feature=shared

A storm chasing video game......
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8832 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Feb 19, 2025 1:09 pm

Noon and 19F with flurries pretty amazing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8833 Postby Snowman67 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 1:12 pm

Still sitting at 29F in far north Tomball (Harris/Montgomery County border)
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8834 Postby TomballEd » Wed Feb 19, 2025 1:49 pm

12Z 3 and 12k NAMs are ~7 degrees too warm in Houston.

NAM not being cold enough, that is just sad. And spooky for the plants.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8835 Postby utpmg » Wed Feb 19, 2025 1:51 pm

Generally not one to fault NWS performance, but only two days ago they were forecasting 28/40 for last night today. Just now EWX lowered high for to day to 29.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8836 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 1:53 pm

Model busting cold, even the NAM models were too warm, im very interested but also slightly more concerned about freezing rain potential on friday given how every model was off a good 8-12 degrees or so, mesocale models show light freezing rain for right now, but will need to watch and see if that trends towards a more significant event given the much colder conditions we are seeing
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8837 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:01 pm

utpmg wrote:Generally not one to fault NWS performance, but only two days ago they were forecasting 28/40 for last night today. Just now EWX lowered high for to day to 29.


Cloud cover has made the difference mostly for the adjustment in temps downward. Models had more clearing than what verified so temps have remained colder across a good portion of the state.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8838 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:02 pm

18 degrees at 1 pm in DFW. The forecasted high of 29 is in serious jeopardy. Still some small flurries in Las Colinas where I am at. Makes me think lighter winds combined with clearing skies tonight single digits are possible tomorrow morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8839 Postby Snowman67 » Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:03 pm

Temp at DW Hooks airport dropped from 30 to 28.9 in last hour.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8840 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:10 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
utpmg wrote:Generally not one to fault NWS performance, but only two days ago they were forecasting 28/40 for last night today. Just now EWX lowered high for to day to 29.


Cloud cover has made the difference mostly for the adjustment in temps downward. Models had more clearing than what verified so temps have remained colder across a good portion of the state.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/sp/GEOCOLOR/20250501851_GOES16-ABI-sp-GEOCOLOR-1200x1200.jpg


There’s been a number of surprises, really. Real temps ended up much colder than most modeling showed. Snow flurries occurred and that wasn’t shown. And now today a significant lowering of forecasted high temps.

It’s been a challenging period for the forecasters.
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