2025 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

SOI going up fast in positive. Kingarabian what is your take on this? La Niña does not want to go too fast.



https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[Kingarabian]

MJO passed the IO and MC with good amplitude, leading to lower than normal pressures near Darwin. Let's see what it does over the WPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Models have backed off on a WPAC WWB.

[cycloneye]

The January PDO data from NOAA is at -78 and that is down from -161 that was in December.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

[cycloneye]

The CPC weekly update of 2/10/25 has niño 3.4 going up to -0.6C. It was down to -0.8C in last week's update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1890038217723765012

[cycloneye]

Here is the ENSO Blog where they have more detailed things about the update.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... e-tomorrow

[cycloneye]

Teban54, there is a more slower trend also in this 2025 ENSO thread than last years one. There were already 6 pages of comments and now there are half of them at 3.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Sst anomalies are now above -0.5c in the 3.4 region:

[Kingarabian]

30 day SOI up.to +13.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1891496771290894350

[Ntxw]

SOI continues to be unimpressive for the 'La Nina.' Despite being largely positive there has been plenty of daily negatives in stretches this NHEM winter And it's still possible we may not make the official 5 trimonthly, even if we do it will be weak. The Northeastern Pacific -WPO/+PNA has not be reminiscent of strong Aleutian ridge, thus has shifted the PDO weaker throughout the winter months.

Way too early to call ahead but we may be looking at another neutral year but with a shifting PDO. 2014?

[cycloneye]

SOI continues to be unimpressive for the 'La Nina.' Despite being largely positive there has been plenty of daily negatives in stretches this NHEM winter And it's still possible we may not make the official 5 trimonthly, even if we do it will be weak. The Northeastern Pacific -WPO/+PNA has not be reminiscent of strong Aleutian ridge, thus has shifted the PDO weaker throughout the winter months.

Way too early to call ahead but we may be looking at another neutral year but with a shifting PDO. 2014?

In layman terms, what all that mean in terms of having la Niña, neutral or El Niño for next summer and fall? And what does shifting PDO / 2014 mean?

[Ntxw]

SOI continues to be unimpressive for the 'La Nina.' Despite being largely positive there has been plenty of daily negatives in stretches this NHEM winter And it's still possible we may not make the official 5 trimonthly, even if we do it will be weak. The Northeastern Pacific -WPO/+PNA has not be reminiscent of strong Aleutian ridge, thus has shifted the PDO weaker throughout the winter months.

Way too early to call ahead but we may be looking at another neutral year but with a shifting PDO. 2014?

In layman terms, what all that mean in terms of having la Niña, neutral or El Niño for next summer and fall? And what does shifting PDO / 2014 mean?

Given the persistent destructive interference the mid and high latitudes have been doing against ENSO, I would bet we get another year where at times it will look like a weak Nina or Nino may surface but in the end it's just ENSO neutral. The PDO won't look like it has been since 2020-2024.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1891677005575295219

[cycloneye]

The CPC weekly update of 2/18/25 has niño 3.4 going up to -0.3C. It was at -0.6C on last week's update. The 1+2. area is up to +0.9C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

SOI continues to be unimpressive for the 'La Nina.' Despite being largely positive there has been plenty of daily negatives in stretches this NHEM winter And it's still possible we may not make the official 5 trimonthly, even if we do it will be weak. The Northeastern Pacific -WPO/+PNA has not be reminiscent of strong Aleutian ridge, thus has shifted the PDO weaker throughout the winter months.

Way too early to call ahead but we may be looking at another neutral year but with a shifting PDO. 2014?

In layman terms, what all that mean in terms of having la Niña, neutral or El Niño for next summer and fall? And what does shifting PDO / 2014 mean?

Given the persistent destructive interference the mid and high latitudes have been doing against ENSO, I would bet we get another year where at times it will look like a weak Nina or Nino may surface but in the end it's just ENSO neutral. The PDO won't look like it has been since 2020-2024.

I would honestly wait until late spring into summer before considering a PDO shift to warm and see if the warming is sustained. PDO can warm up during the winter period even in cold regimes.

[cycloneye]

The consensus of the ENSO models on the febuary update is to have borderline neutral / la niña for the peak months of the hurricane season ASO. However, there is the well known "Spring Barrier" that we have to look at to see how things may change or not.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -iri_plume

[kevin]

The consensus of the ENSO models on the febuary update is to have borderline neutral / la niña for the peak months of the hurricane season ASO. However, there is the well known "Spring Barrier" that we have to look at to see how things may change or not.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -iri_plume

https://i.imgur.com/FRTJKxN.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/p9jDHjH.jpeg

Still far out, but it looks like a neutral or weak la niña are the most realistic options for peak season with a dynamic average of -0.2C and a statistic average of -0.6C. Recent years (since 2000) with a similar Nino 3.4 SST anaomaly (between -0.2C and -0.6C) during ASO are listed below.

2024 = -0.21C (hyperactive, 162 ACE)
2017 = -0.38C (hyperactive, 225 ACE)
2013 = -0.26C (below normal, 36 ACE)
2008 = -0.24C (above normal, 146 ACE)
2001 = -0.2C (near normal, 110 ACE)
2000 = -0.5C (near normal, 119 ACE)

[Kingarabian]

MJO is exiting the Pacific. Would spend most of March away from the WPAC. Not even a hint of a decent downwelling Kelvin wave on any of the charts. Cool neutral/La Nina is a safe bet for ASO.