2024 Cyclone Retirements (Breaking ATLC: Beryl, Helene, Milton; EPAC: John)

[mrbagyo]

I wonder if PAGASA will break its record for the most storms retired in a year?

The record I think is 5, which belongs to 2011: Bebeng (Aere), Juaning (Nock-ten), Mina (Nanmadol), Pedring (Nesat) and Sendong (Washi). We have Aghon (Ewiniar), Enteng (Yagi), Gener (Soulik), Kristine (Trami), Marce (Yinxing), Nika (Toraji), Ofel (Usagi) and Pepito (Man-yi) on the chopping block, based on PAGASA retirement standards of 1 billion PHP or 300 deaths.

I'd bet the name Usagi (Ofel) won't get retired since even if it made landfall as a cat 4, it was actually almost a non-event - it completely fell apart upon landfall.

[Ernestt]

Looks like the NCEI damage reports are out for Helene and Milton, $78.7 Billion for Helene and $34.3 Billion for Milton (although they were going to get retired regardless)

[MadaTheConquistador]

Assuming Beryl, Debby (very likely by Canada's request), Helene, and Milton are all getting retired, here are some names I am predicting as potential replacements:

Beryl: Bernadette, Blair, Beth, Brynn, and Beulah
Debby: Darcy, Delaney, Daphne, Desiree, and Danica
Helene: Heather, Hallie, Harley, Harper, and Harriet
Milton: Malcolm, Malachi, Magnus, Monty, and Maurice

[NotAHurricane]

Assuming Beryl, Debby (very likely by Canada's request), Helene, and Milton are all getting retired, here are some names I am predicting as potential replacements:

Beryl: Bernadette, Blair, Beth, Brynn, and Beulah
Debby: Darcy, Delaney, Daphne, Desiree, and Danica
Helene: Heather, Hallie, Harley, Harper, and Harriet
Milton: Malcolm, Malachi, Magnus, Monty, and Maurice

Beulah is already a retired name from 1967. Beth was used in 1971 before the introduction of male/female alternating names, so it could potentially come back. The rest of these, I think are solid options for replacements. Heather is my prediction for Helene.

[HurricaneRyan]

Assuming Beryl, Debby (very likely by Canada's request), Helene, and Milton are all getting retired, here are some names I am predicting as potential replacements:

Beryl: Bernadette, Blair, Beth, Brynn, and Beulah
Debby: Darcy, Delaney, Daphne, Desiree, and Danica
Helene: Heather, Hallie, Harley, Harper, and Harriet
Milton: Malcolm, Malachi, Magnus, Monty, and Maurice

Brittany, Brooke, Denise and Mason are some other options for Beryl, Debby and Milton

[MadaTheConquistador]

Assuming Beryl, Debby (very likely by Canada's request), Helene, and Milton are all getting retired, here are some names I am predicting as potential replacements:

Beryl: Bernadette, Blair, Beth, Brynn, and Beulah
Debby: Darcy, Delaney, Daphne, Desiree, and Danica
Helene: Heather, Hallie, Harley, Harper, and Harriet
Milton: Malcolm, Malachi, Magnus, Monty, and Maurice

Beulah is already a retired name from 1967. Beth was used in 1971 before the introduction of male/female alternating names, so it could potentially come back. The rest of these, I think are solid options for replacements. Heather is my prediction for Helene.

My bad, I forgot Beulah was already retired (I often forget some of the retired names from pre-1979). But yeah, Heather is also personally my top pick to replace Helene.

[ljmac75]

My potential retirement replacement name ideas:

Beryl: Bimberly, Bella, Beulah (unretire the name because I like it)
Debby: Drea, Deborah
Helene: Haley, Hermione, Hailee
Milton: Mario, Mort, Mike

[Iceresistance]

My potential retirement replacement name ideas:

Beryl: Bimberly, Bella, Beulah (unretire the name because I like it)
Debby: Drea, Deborah
Helene: Haley, Hermione, Hailee
Milton: Mario, Mort, Mike

Mario is being used in the EPAC

"Hermione" is too similar to "Hermine"

[Ulf]

According to Wikipedia with a Cuban newspaper as the source, Rafael's damage is now over 1 billion in US dollar.

If Rafael gets retired along with Debby and the three definite ones, then that would be 5 names retired.

[Ernestt]

According to Wikipedia with a Cuban newspaper as the source, Rafael's damage is now over 1 billion in US dollar.

If Rafael gets retired along with Debby and the three definite ones, then that would be 5 names retired.

Add Tropical Storm Sara ($100 million USD/$2.5 billion lempiras (local currency) is still quite bad for Honduras even though it wasn't Eta/Iota for them) and there are 6 possible retirements

[ljmac75]

Idea I came up with: US States that would individually request retirements if they were independent countries.

Texas: Probably Beryl.
Alabama: Sally from 2020, retroactively. Just kidding.
Florida: Probably Helene, probably not Debby, definitely Milton.
Georgia: Definitely Helene, probably not Debby.
South Carolina: Maybe Helene, maybe Debby
North Carolina: Definitely Helene
Virginia: Maybe Helene

[MadaTheConquistador]

According to Wikipedia with a Cuban newspaper as the source, Rafael's damage is now over 1 billion in US dollar.

If Rafael gets retired along with Debby and the three definite ones, then that would be 5 names retired.

Add Tropical Storm Sara ($100 million USD/$2.5 billion lempiras (local currency) is still quite bad for Honduras even though it wasn't Eta/Iota for them) and there are 6 possible retirements

Honestly, I think Rafael could have a 50/50 shot of getting retired. Despite it having a lower death toll during its lifetime, it did end up causing landslides and floods in Panama whilst it was still a disturbance (I'd say it's a bit similar to 2017's Nate, which badly affected Costa Rica while it was also a disturbance, and ended up getting retired, and Rafael could get retired in a similar fashion) and ended up costing Panama around $110 million USD and 5 deaths with 2 more missing. It also caused one death in Colombia and 2 more in Jamaica. And in Cuba, if I remember correctly, caused a nationwide power outage and worsened their ongoing power crisis due to things like lack of oil, and caused around a billion USD. It'll probably depend on if Panama and/or Cuba wants to retire Rafael. If it does end up getting retired, names I could see potentially replacing it are Russell, Romeo, Ryan, Rodney, and Royce.

And as for Sara, while it's not impossible, I'm personally not holding my breath for it to be retired. I'm sure that we've seen storms in that region that caused around the same level of destruction and deaths (if not more) and not get retired, but I could be wrong though.

[GSBHurricane]

I think this is the week we find out which typhoon names will be retired from the Typhoon Committee.

[Ulf]

The 57th session of the Typhoon Committee has concluded.

https://wmo.int/media/news/typhoon-committee-showcase-regional-collaboration

The Committee noted the requests to retire the names of EWINIAR, YAGI (also by China), Krathon, Trami, Kong-Rey, Toraji, Usagi and Man-Yi because of the death and destruction they caused in 2024.

8 names retired is a new record for WPAC, surpassing 6 in 2022.

Gaemi not getting retired is the most surprising especially since the storm caused more than a hundred deaths combined in China and the Philippines.

Krathon has been used only once, having replaced Mangkhut. Curious to see which fruit name Thailand will replace it with.

[Category5Kaiju]

John in the EPAC now is rated as the 4th costliest EPAC storm in recorded history. John also caused 29 deaths and 2.45 billion dollars in damage.

For a bit of perspective, Odile in 2014 caused 18 deaths and 1.25 billion dollars in damage, and that name was retired. Patricia caused 13 deaths and 484 million dollars in damage, and that name was also retired.

At least amongst EPAC hurricanes, John is looking like it will fit at least into the modest tier in terms of deaths and in the upper tier in terms of monetary damage. With John's major hurricane status, as well as its occurrence during a tame year otherwise, I now fully expect John to be retired, alongside the obvious ones like Beryl, Helene, and Milton in the Atlantic, during the WMO meeting at the end of March.

If I had to pick one replacement name guess, I think I'm going to go with Joshua.

[MadaTheConquistador]

John in the EPAC now is rated as the 4th costliest EPAC storm in recorded history. John also caused 29 deaths and 2.45 billion dollars in damage.

For a bit of perspective, Odile in 2014 caused 18 deaths and 1.25 billion dollars in damage, and that name was retired. Patricia caused 13 deaths and 484 million dollars in damage, and that name was also retired.

At least amongst EPAC hurricanes, John is looking like it will fit at least into the modest tier in terms of deaths and in the upper tier in terms of monetary damage. With John's major hurricane status, as well as its occurrence during a tame year otherwise, I now fully expect John to be retired, alongside the obvious ones like Beryl, Helene, and Milton in the Atlantic, during the WMO meeting at the end of March.

If I had to pick one replacement name guess, I think I'm going to go with Joshua.

Yeah, I fully expect John to get retired. IIRC, I have seen a little bit of a debate on whether it should have been retired back in '94 just because it broke the record as the longest lasting tropical cyclone ever at the time despite only causing minimal damage in I believe Hawaii and no deaths, but it looks like it's gone for good this time. I think some other good replacement names are Jamie, Jacob, Jerome, Justin, and Jonas.

[GSBHurricane]

John in the EPAC now is rated as the 4th costliest EPAC storm in recorded history. John also caused 29 deaths and 2.45 billion dollars in damage.

For a bit of perspective, Odile in 2014 caused 18 deaths and 1.25 billion dollars in damage, and that name was retired. Patricia caused 13 deaths and 484 million dollars in damage, and that name was also retired.

At least amongst EPAC hurricanes, John is looking like it will fit at least into the modest tier in terms of deaths and in the upper tier in terms of monetary damage. With John's major hurricane status, as well as its occurrence during a tame year otherwise, I now fully expect John to be retired, alongside the obvious ones like Beryl, Helene, and Milton in the Atlantic, during the WMO meeting at the end of March.

If I had to pick one replacement name guess, I think I'm going to go with Joshua.

Yeah, I fully expect John to get retired. IIRC, I have seen a little bit of a debate on whether it should have been retired back in '94 just because it broke the record as the longest lasting tropical cyclone ever at the time despite only causing minimal damage in I believe Hawaii and no deaths, but it looks like it's gone for good this time. I think some other good replacement names are Jamie, Jacob, Jerome, Justin, and Jonas.

I'm not sure if John's a certainty since there have been at least a few highly destructive storms that hit Mexico in the 21st century and that did not get retired, like Alex and Karl 2010 and Earl 2016. I do think there's a good chance though.

[Category5Kaiju]

John in the EPAC now is rated as the 4th costliest EPAC storm in recorded history. John also caused 29 deaths and 2.45 billion dollars in damage.

For a bit of perspective, Odile in 2014 caused 18 deaths and 1.25 billion dollars in damage, and that name was retired. Patricia caused 13 deaths and 484 million dollars in damage, and that name was also retired.

At least amongst EPAC hurricanes, John is looking like it will fit at least into the modest tier in terms of deaths and in the upper tier in terms of monetary damage. With John's major hurricane status, as well as its occurrence during a tame year otherwise, I now fully expect John to be retired, alongside the obvious ones like Beryl, Helene, and Milton in the Atlantic, during the WMO meeting at the end of March.

If I had to pick one replacement name guess, I think I'm going to go with Joshua.

Yeah, I fully expect John to get retired. IIRC, I have seen a little bit of a debate on whether it should have been retired back in '94 just because it broke the record as the longest lasting tropical cyclone ever at the time despite only causing minimal damage in I believe Hawaii and no deaths, but it looks like it's gone for good this time. I think some other good replacement names are Jamie, Jacob, Jerome, Justin, and Jonas.

I'm not sure if John's a certainty since there have been at least a few highly destructive storms that hit Mexico in the 21st century and that did not get retired, like Alex and Karl 2010 and Earl 2016. I do think there's a good chance though.

The big caveat here is that all of the storms you mentioned happened on the Atlantic side. In general, Mexico is pretty lenient with EPAC storm name retirements but much stricter with Atlantic storm name retirements. For an Atlantic storm to get retired by Mexico, it would likely need to be a powerful Category 4/5 storm that devastates a populated area of the coast, such as Veracruz, Merida, or Cancun, with great loss of life. The bar is much lower for EPAC storms though.

[GSBHurricane]

Yeah, I fully expect John to get retired. IIRC, I have seen a little bit of a debate on whether it should have been retired back in '94 just because it broke the record as the longest lasting tropical cyclone ever at the time despite only causing minimal damage in I believe Hawaii and no deaths, but it looks like it's gone for good this time. I think some other good replacement names are Jamie, Jacob, Jerome, Justin, and Jonas.

I'm not sure if John's a certainty since there have been at least a few highly destructive storms that hit Mexico in the 21st century and that did not get retired, like Alex and Karl 2010 and Earl 2016. I do think there's a good chance though.

The big caveat here is that all of the storms you mentioned happened on the Atlantic side. In general, Mexico is pretty lenient with EPAC storm name retirements but much stricter with Atlantic storm name retirements. For an Atlantic storm to get retired by Mexico, it would likely need to be a powerful Category 4/5 storm that devastates a populated area of the coast, such as Veracruz, Merida, or Cancun, with great loss of life. The bar is much lower for EPAC storms though.

There's also been several EPAC hurricanes that met this threshold but were never retired such as Tara 1961, Liza 1976, and Paul 1982. Then again I'm not sure this caveat applies to storms before 1988 which is when the NHC took over the EPAC from the PHC.

[Torino]

Now that most of the TC reports have been released, I'll continue with my prediction of 4 names retired: Beryl, Helene, Milton and Rafael. +1 from EPAC: John.