Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Ah yes the hot season approaches. Nothing like 90+ everyday maybe a few 100s! If you saved money on your heating bill with warm winter days, don't worry the the very hot summer days will eat it right up . No seriously just have to accept it our 2-3 summer reprieve is just about over, and the 8-10 months of TEXAS weather is drawing near.

I agree, love the 90s (I recognize your sarcasm)! Looking at the long-range forecast, I don't see any prolonged onshore flow over the next couple of weeks that could get our temps back above 80. That's somewhat concerning. Oh well, I helped the day shift with advisories on TCs Alfred & Rae in the South Pacific. We may have 6 active storms in the Southern Hemisphere by Monday or Tuesday. Advisories every 6 hours on all of them. 3 in the South Pac and 3 in the South Indian. SH tropics are quite active.

Oh well, temperature at 48F here now but the rain is ending. Going crawl under my electric blanket as I lay on a giant pillow-sized heating pad. It's 73 in my office, but I'm freezing...

No worries sir, severe weather in Dixie Alley late March will give way to much above normal temperatures once we get past MJO 1-2-3 then perhaps warmth will come in from the East. Your 90s awaits.

[bubba hotep]

This cold outbreak didn't deliver much snow for DFW, but it was historic by most standards.

 https://x.com/whatisthisrds/status/1893703741758427303

[HockeyTx82]

Okay so it begs the question do we start scalping yards (Bermuda) and planting in our flower beds or wait until maybe mid-march?

[Stratton23]

Probably mid march, knowing texas, probably will see a couple more freezes before its really over, better to play the side of caution here just so you dont end up with more dead plants

[txtwister78]

The big temp reversal underway...hopefully the precip verifies. Need all the rain we can get especially if these long-range precip outlooks verify. Not looking good for SC TX.

[South Texas Storms]

The big temp reversal underway...hopefully the precip verifies. Need all the rain we can get especially if these long-range precip outlooks verify. Not looking good for SC TX.

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/cpc/latest/610prcp.conus.png

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/cpc/latest/610temp.conus.png

Surprised the CPC is going with above normal rainfall in south central TX. I don't see much beneficial rainfall coming in the next 2 weeks right now.

[Brent]

The big temp reversal underway...hopefully the precip verifies. Need all the rain we can get especially if these long-range precip outlooks verify. Not looking good for SC TX.

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/cpc/latest/610prcp.conus.png

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/cpc/latest/610temp.conus.png

Yeah if anyone is gonna hope at all for a not as bad summer the rain has to pick up. End of story

As for planting yeah I'd wait til spring break week or around St Patrick's Day and see what things look like. If we're gonna have anymore cold it'll probably be by then or at least clear on the models

[TomballEd]

If severe weather season is going to be active now, we need onshore flow to warm the very cold shelf waters, otherwise will have fog or stratus and cool temps not likely to break the cap off the Mexican highlands.

Last year's fairly active (for SETX) severe season was a warm winter, other than the one hard December freeze. Warmer shelf, less fog and stratus, warmed air temps, better than chance of breaking the cap.

[Ntxw]

If severe weather season is going to be active now, we need onshore flow to warm the very cold shelf waters, otherwise will have fog or stratus and cool temps not likely to break the cap off the Mexican highlands.

Last year's fairly active (for SETX) severe season was a warm winter, other than the one hard December freeze. Warmer shelf, less fog and stratus, warmed air temps, better than chance of breaking the cap.

Yeah the central and eastern US have experienced a cold Jan and Feb combo first in awhile. It will take a lot of time to warm all of that up. Severe weather season (as we think of it with many intense outbreaks) is going to be slow to kick up outside of local events.

[Ntxw]

Animation to look back at one of the great late season cold snaps. Not much snow, but no lack of cold.

[Stratton23]

Before anyone says its not gonna happen, but just thought id bring this up out of interest, because it does looks interesting , but the GFS/ Euro have been consistently showing a complete reversal of the zonal winds in the stratosphere around the 10th leading to a major SSWE or final warming event as its called, not sure how much of a influence that would have, but kinda cool to look at though , bastardi has been talking about it frequently in posted videos

[Ntxw]

Before anyone says its not gonna happen, but just thought id bring this up out of interest, because it does looks interesting , but the GFS/ Euro have been consistently showing a complete reversal of the zonal winds in the stratosphere around the 10th leading to a major SSWE or final warming event as its called, not sure how much of a influence that would have, but kinda cool to look at though , bastardi has been talking about it frequently in posted videos

Probably final warming, annual chilly Easter.

[TomballEd]

GFS and GFS ensembles show a fairly strong trough in this time period. Bit to early to call.

 https://x.com/weat23009/status/1894092131062501443

[Brent]

75 degrees here after we were below freezing over 100 hours last week

I did see someone knowledgeable post about March 3rd for the first real severe setup

[HockeyTx82]

GFS and GFS ensembles show a fairly strong trough in this time period. Bit to early to call.

 https://x.com/weat23009/status/1894092131062501443

This is what I get upset about. Ckickbait. There is no need to get people worked up over something that far out. Why even post it?

Not you TomballEd, the X account.

[snownado]

It's so nice to finally have 70s back.

I will be going to wash my car today, for the first time in weeks...

[Stratton23]

72 degrees here, absolutely disgusting and pitiful weather

[wxman22]

GFS and GFS ensembles show a fairly strong trough in this time period. Bit to early to call.

 https://x.com/weat23009/status/1894092131062501443

I've been keeping an eye on this for a few days now.As i mentioned a couple of days ago Im not saying there is going to be an outbreak but its worth watching just in case.Reed Timmer also mentioned the potential today LOL.

[jasons2k]

It was sunny and 70 today. Perfect weather. A million times better than last week!!

[jasons2k]

If severe weather season is going to be active now, we need onshore flow to warm the very cold shelf waters, otherwise will have fog or stratus and cool temps not likely to break the cap off the Mexican highlands.

Last year's fairly active (for SETX) severe season was a warm winter, other than the one hard December freeze. Warmer shelf, less fog and stratus, warmed air temps, better than chance of breaking the cap.

The cold air didn’t penetrate deep enough south into the gulf to make a big difference.