SPAC: SERU - Post-Tropical

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96P INVEST 250222 1800 12.6S 167.4E SHEM 20 1004

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTER [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.2S
170.4E AT 240600 UTC. TD10F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI IR/EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS.

AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOW
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LOW TO MODERATE THEREAFTER.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1894120992030548293

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[Subtrop]

STORM WARNING 099 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 250452 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7 SOUTH 170.4 EAST AT 250300 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.7S 170.4E at 250300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 251500 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.8S 171.0E AT 251500 UTC
AND NEAR 19.1S 171.7E AT 260300 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 098.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 170.6E AT
250600 UTC. POSITION FAIR. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 7
KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AND CONSOLIDATING ONTO SUPPOSED
LLCC WITH OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM LIES
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARS BY THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1894401241544802638

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8S
170.8E AT 260600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. DRY AIR IS STARTING TO
GET TO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME CLOUD TOP
WARMING IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS DETERIORATED IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS MOVING INTO A HIGHER SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE SUPPOSED LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHILE GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE LIES TO THE EAST. GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
400HPA. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S
171.0E AT 270600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIRIMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH LLCC
FULLY EXPOSED. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SUPPOSED LLCC LIES IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING
UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. SERU IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ENCOUNTERING HIGH SHEAR, DRY AIR AND COOLER SST AS IT MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAS WEAKENED SERU INTO A SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE AND HAS
VERY LOW CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT.