SPAC: ALFRED - Ex Tropical Cyclone

[doomhaMwx]

 https://x.com/doomhaMwx/status/1895141142523674713

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/doomhaMwx/status/1895268129166762002

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:41 pm EST on Friday 28 February 2025

At 10 pm AEST Friday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 4) with central
pressure 951 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 20.5 south
longitude 155.7 east, which is about 680 km east of Mackay and 620 km east
northeast of Rockhampton.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been fluctuating in intensity over the past
24 hours and is currently a category 4 cyclone. It is expected begin slowly
weakening from Saturday night.

Alfred is forecast to continue moving to the south through the Coral Sea during
the rest of the night. During Saturday it is likely to move a little to the
south southwest closer to the Queensland coast before tracking southeast and
further away from the coast during Sunday.

There is good confidence that Alfred will stay offshore well into next week.
However, from the middle of next week Alfred is likely to be slow moving with
some ongoing uncertainty as to how close to the southern Queensland coast it
may come in the longer term.

Regardless of the track Alfred takes, severe coastal hazards are likely for
southern Queensland and northeast New South Wales. A large and powerful to
potentially damaging easterly swell as well as abnormally high tides are
developing about exposed central Queensland beaches, extending to southern
Queensland from Saturday, and possibly to northern New South Wales from Sunday
or Monday. Refer to marine warnings and forecasts for further information on
these hazards.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:40 pm EST on Saturday 1 March 2025

At 4 pm AEST Saturday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 3) with central
pressure 963 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 21.9 south
longitude 155.2 east, which is about 510 km east northeast of Rockhampton and
445 km northeast of Bundaberg.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving southward over the Coral Sea. It may
move closer to the Queensland coast today before moving southeast and further
away from the coast during Sunday and Monday. Alfred may then be slow moving
with the chance to turn westwards and move towards the southern Queensland
coast from mid-next week.

Strong to gale-force winds may develop this weekend across the southern Great
Barrier Reef Islands including Heron and Lady Elliot Islands and to K'gari.

Severe coastal hazards are likely for southern Queensland and northeast New
South Wales. A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell as
well as abnormally high tides are forecast to develop about exposed central and
southern Queensland beaches from later today, possibly extending to northern
New South Wales from Monday.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BOM_Qld/status/1896025553188085963

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:39 pm EST on Sunday 2 March 2025

At 4 pm AEST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 1) with central pressure
984 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 23.9 south longitude 155.8
east, which is about 545 km east of Rockhampton and 370 km east northeast of
Bundaberg.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been moving southwards while weakening yesterday
and today. Tonight it is forecast to turn southeast and move further away from
the Queensland coast while weakening a little further. Alfred is then expected
to slow down and is likely to turn westward from Tuesday, moving towards the
southern Queensland coast.

Severe coastal hazards are likely for southern Queensland and northeast New
South Wales. A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell as
well as abnormally high tides are developing about exposed southern Queensland
beaches, and are forecast to extend to northern New South Wales from Monday.

Heavy to locally intense rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and
northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday as Alfred approaches the coast.
Flood Watches have been issued for these areas.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 10:47 pm EST on Monday 3 March 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to move towards the southeast Queensland coast from Tuesday onwards.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Sandy Cape to Grafton including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Byron Bay but not including Grafton.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 10:00 pm AEST [11:00 pm AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 26.8 degrees South 158.5 degrees East, estimated to be 550 kilometres east of Brisbane and 540 kilometres east of Maroochydore.

Movement: southeast at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred, category 1 cyclone, is currently moving southeast but is expected to slow and turn west towards the Queensland coast from Tuesday onwards.

Alfred may intensify to a category 2 cyclone tonight though is more likely to do so during Tuesday as its south-eastward movement slows. Alfred's intensity may fluctuate between category 1 and 2 while it remains off the coast during Tuesday and Wednesday.

As it approaches the coast on Thursday, Alfred is expected to maintain intensity as a category 2 cyclone and make landfall between Brisbane and Sunshine Coast late on Thursday or Friday morning.

Hazards:
Severe coastal hazards, including abnormally high tides, hazardous surf and potentially damaging swells are expected to continue over southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coasts. Conditions are expected to deteriorate further as Alfred approaches the southeast Queensland coast on Thursday.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop along the southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coastal fringes and island communities between Tewantin and Grafton during Wednesday. Gales may extend further north from Tewantin to Sandy Cape from late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Heavy rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday. HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING may occur near and south of the cyclone centre as Alfred approaches the coast late on Thursday or early Friday. Flood Watches have been issued for these areas.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/LimWeather/status/1896638427921371589

[Cargill]

Alfred is expected to make landfall Thursday Night - Friday Morning. First such storm this far south in over 50 years.

Most cyclones that hit the Australian coast do so in very lightly populated areas, but Alfred could impact millions of people who live close to the coast in the watch area. It's also disrupting a lot of pro sports that are scheduled in or near Brisbane between Thursday Night and Sunday.

Let's hope it weakens significantly ... but even still, beach erosion is expected to be big. Surfers are liking it so far.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 7:56 pm EST on Tuesday 4 March 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving west towards the southeast Queensland coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Double Island Point in Queensland to Grafton in New South Wales, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay and Ballina and not including Grafton..

Watch Zone
Sandy Cape to Double Island Point in Queensland, including K'gari..

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 7:00 pm AEST [8:00 pm AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 28.0 degrees South 158.6 degrees East, estimated to be 550 kilometres east of Brisbane and 520 kilometres east of Gold Coast.

Movement: west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving west towards the southeast Queensland coast.

Alfred is a category 2 cyclone and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it approaches the southeast Queensland coast on Thursday. Alfred is expected to cross the coast late Thursday or early Friday morning, most likely between the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.

Hazards:
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop along the southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coastal and island communities between Double Island Point and Grafton on Wednesday and persist during Thursday. Gales may extend further north from Double Island Point to Sandy Cape early Thursday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS of up to 155 kilometres per hour may develop about the exposed coastal and island locations near and to the south of the track as Alfred's destructive core approaches and crosses the coast late Thursday or early Friday.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE may occur along the coastal foreshore, particularly in areas near and south of the cyclone centre, if the time of coastal crossing coincides with the high tide during Thursday night or early Friday morning. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the highest high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous inundation of coastal low-lying areas.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are likely to continue causing MINOR FLOODING of coastal low lying areas between Sandy Cape and Grafton, particularly during the time of high tide tonight through till Friday. DAMAGING SURF leading to significant beach erosion remains likely for the open beaches between Sandy Cape and Grafton, and further south over New South Wales coast. A separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf Warning is current for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coasts.

Heavy rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Thursday. HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING may occur near and south of the cyclone centre as Alfred approaches the coast late on Thursday. A separate Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watch are current for southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1916 UTC 04/03/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 28.1S
Longitude: 157.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 220 nm (405 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 200 nm (370 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 70 nm (130 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 270 nm (500 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 05/0000: 27.9S 157.1E: 030 (060): 050 (095): 981
+12: 05/0600: 27.7S 156.5E: 040 (075): 050 (095): 982
+18: 05/1200: 27.3S 156.0E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 982
+24: 05/1800: 27.2S 155.4E: 045 (080): 055 (100): 980
+36: 06/0600: 27.5S 154.3E: 050 (095): 060 (110): 977
+48: 06/1800: 27.6S 152.8E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 993
+60: 07/0600: 27.4S 151.8E: 075 (145): 025 (045): 1001
+72: 07/1800: 27.8S 150.8E: 095 (180): 025 (045): 1003
+96: 08/1800: : : :
+120: 09/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues to exhibit a sheared, subtropical appearance
with little deep convective cloud near the centre. Position is based on
animated IR satellite imagery with good confidence.

Dvorak analysis: DT could not be obtained. MET is 1.0 based on a 24 hour W-
trend, and PAT is adjusted to 1.5. Final T 1.5 and CI held at 2.0. Objective
aids at 1700 UTC (1 min. average): ADT 25 kn, AiDT 34 kn, DPRINT 34 kn, and
SATCON (1100 UTC) 38 kn. Intensity (50 kn) and wind structure based on a
consensus of recent satellite data: SMOS 0703 UTC, SAR 0811 UTC, ASCAT 1044 and
1131 UTC, OSCAT 1333 UTC.

The system lies under the southern edge of the subtropical jet, with very
strong northwesterly deep layer shear (CIMSS 1200 analysis 39 knots. SSTs are
marginal initially along the forecast track at 26C, but increase to 27C closer
to the coast. TPW imagery continues to indicate dry air wrapping into the
system, and the strong feed of tropical moisture from the northeast is
weakening. Despite Alfred's appearance and current environment, the latest GFS
phase space plot suggests the system is trending back towards a deep symmetric
warm-cored structure, from the earlier asymmetric shallow warm core.

A mid-level ridge to the south will continue to steer Alfred westwards towards
the coast. The spread of track guidance suggests a landfall location between
Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast, with the timing of the coastal crossing sometime
late Thursday or early Friday morning.

The upper trough is forecast to move to the northeast today as the system
continues tracking westward. The system is forecast to move to the south of the
subtropical jet into a lower shear environment later today. This may lead to
some reorganisation of the system towards a more tropical structure, and lead
to some intensification. Given the continued baroclinic influences and the
complexity of the forecast evolution, the intensity forecast remains biased
towards numerical guidance. The current forecast has the system intensifying to
a high end category 2 system (60 kn Vmax) prior to landfall on Thursday evening
or Friday morning. The possibility of the system reaching a low end category 3
strength before making landfall cannot be ruled out, but remains a low risk.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 7:44 pm EST on Wednesday 5 March 2025

Headline:
Impacts from Tropical Cyclone Alfred increasing for southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales overnight.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Double Island Point in Queensland to Grafton in New South Wales, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay and Ballina but not including Grafton.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 7:00 pm AEST [8:00 pm AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.4 degrees South 156.7 degrees East, estimated to be 365 kilometres east of Brisbane and 340 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast.

Movement: northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue its approach towards the southeast Queensland coast tonight, with the far western edge already impacting the coast from about Coolangatta to Ballina.

Alfred is a category 2 cyclone, and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it continues to approach the southeast Queensland coast. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast during Friday, noting that latest weather model data indicates the potential for a later crossing time than previously indicated. Location of crossing still remains most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.

Hazards:
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are developing near the coast from Coolangatta to Ballina. Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop along the remaining southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coastal and island communities between Double Island Point and Grafton overnight and during Thursday morning, persisting through Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS of up to 155 kilometres per hour may develop about coastal and island locations near and to the south of the track, possibly as far south as about Cape Byron, late Thursday or early Friday as Alfred's destructive core approaches and crosses the coast. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS may extend to the mainland areas close to the centre during Friday.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE is likely along the coastal foreshore for exposed areas near and south of the cyclone centre, possible as far south as Cape Byron, if the time of coastal crossing coincides with the high tide. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the highest high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous inundation of coastal low-lying areas.

There is a possibility that DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause further coastal erosion and some inundation of low-lying areas near exposed beaches on the Gold Coast, including to the NSW/Qld border and the Tweed Coast. This is dependent on how Alfred behaves as it approaches the coast.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are likely to continue causing MINOR FLOODING of coastal low lying areas between Double Island Point and Grafton, particularly during the time of high tides early Thursday morning (Wednesday night), early Friday morning (Thursday night) and early Saturday morning (Friday night). DAMAGING SURF leading to significant beach erosion remains likely for the open beaches between Double Island Point and Grafton, and further south over the New South Wales coast. Separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf Warning are current for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coasts.

HEAVY RAINFALL may develop for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Thursday. HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING may occur near and south of the cyclone centre as Alfred approaches and crosses the coast. Separate Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watch are current for southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.

Refer to associated warnings for Queensland and New South Wales at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings.

Recommended Action:
People between Double Island Point in Queensland and Grafton in New South Wales should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website (www.getready.qld.gov.au)

- If you choose to take shelter away from your home, stay COVID-19 safe and pack a mask and hand sanitiser (if you have them).

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service or New South Wales State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1897272263046504558

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/LimWeather/status/1897368577747128491

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BOM_au/status/1897371915909492840

[Cargill]

Cyclone Alfred has stalled, and is now expected to make landfall early on Saturday morning (high tide is at 3:40 am too).

Despite its very southerly latitude, it seems to be sustaining Cat2 winds (if not a Cat2 eye), and in fact it may gain some wind intensity prior to landfall. There are four million people in the watch zone - almost a unique event for such a storm in Australia. It would be like a Cat2 storm heading directly west at say Fort Lauderdale.

The wind speed is not the drama - it's the predicted storm surge on a huge beach-lined coast, and extremely heavy rainfall on a set of very flood-prone rivers, around which a lot of people live. These rivers are short and narrow, and cannot cope with excess rainfall at all well. There is some mitigation through dams, but not a lot.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BOM_au/status/1897459062121328740

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BOM_NSW/status/1897590151653503251

[cycloneye]

Approaching the coast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 10:47 pm EST on Thursday 6 March 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Alfred moving slowly towards the southeast Queensland coast. Rainfall increasing and wind impacts expected to increase overnight.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Double Island Point in Queensland to Grafton in New South Wales, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay and Ballina but not including Grafton.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 10:00 pm AEST [11:00 pm AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.3 degrees South 155.5 degrees East, estimated to be 245 kilometres east of Brisbane and 230 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast.

Movement: slow moving.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is slowly moving towards the southeast Queensland coast.

Alfred, a category 2 tropical cyclone, is expected to remain of similar intensity until the centre starts to interact with the coast and islands. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast Friday night or early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.

Hazards:
HEAVY RAINFALL is developing over southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales. HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING will occur near and south of the cyclone centre as Alfred approaches and crosses the coast. Due to the very slow moving nature of the cyclone, there is a very high risk of significant impacts due to widespread heavy rainfall over the coming days. Separate Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches are current for southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE is likely along the coastal foreshore for exposed areas between Cape Moreton and Yamba, including the Gold Coast and Byron Bay beaches, ahead of the coastal crossing time on the high tides. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the highest high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous inundation of coastal low-lying areas.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are likely to continue causing MINOR FLOODING of coastal low lying areas between Double Island Point and Grafton, particularly during the time of high tides early Friday morning (tonight) and early Saturday morning (Friday night). DAMAGING SURF leading to significant beach erosion remains likely for the open beaches between Double Island Point and Grafton, and further south over the New South Wales coast. Separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf warnings are current for southeast Queensland and New South Wales coasts.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are developing near the coast between Cape Moreton and Cape Byron. Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop along the remaining southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coastal and island communities between Noosa and Ballina overnight T into Friday morning, possible extending as far south as Grafton and as far north as Double Island Point. These DAMAGING WINDS are forecast to persist during Friday before easing during late Saturday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS of up to 155 kilometres per hour may develop about coastal and island locations near, and to the south of, the cyclone centre, as Alfred's destructive core approaches the coast.