SIO: HONDE - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

95S INVEST 250222 1200 22.4S 36.9E SHEM 15 0

[Dean_175]

EDIT: accidentally posted this on the wrong system's thread. Please disregard.

Has a closed circulation according to OSCAT. Can clearly see rotating low level clouds on satellite along with a large amount of deep convection right above the center. What are they waiting for? Why is this considered only an invest?

[cycloneye]

System Information: DISRUPTED ZONE 11-20242025


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1000 hPa.

Position on February 24 at 10 a.m. local time: 22.1 South / 39.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1670 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1210 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 15 km/h.

Key messages:

- The low pressure circulation formed this weekend in the south of the Mozambique Channel is beginning to show signs of organization. It remains for the moment at an embryonic stage, at the stage of Disturbed Zone, numbered 11-20242025.

- It is expected to slowly develop into a tropical storm by Tuesday night or Wednesday while moving slowly across the central part of the southern Mozambique Channel.

- At the end of the week, it could approach the south-western coast of Madagascar (Toliara province) while maintaining significant intensity.

- In the southwest of Madagascar, a dangerous sea state is expected from Wednesday and heavy rains are possible from Thursday.

- On the southern coasts of Mozambique, dangerous sea conditions are expected from Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

System Information: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-20242025


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 25 at 10 a.m. local time: 22.7 South / 37.9 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1795 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1330 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.

Key messages:

- Disturbed Area No. 11-20242025 is under development in the south of the Mozambique Channel.

- It is expected to slowly intensify to tropical storm status by Tuesday night or Wednesday while moving very slowly. It could then reach tropical cyclone status by Thursday.

- This system should be large, with therefore a windy and rainy zone of influence quite far from the center.

- At the end of the week, this system could approach the southwest coast of Madagascar (Toliara province) while maintaining significant intensity.

- Concerning Madagascar, heavy rains are underway in the province of Toliara on the far periphery of the system. On the southwest of the Big Island (province of Toliara), a dangerous sea state is expected from Wednesday and heavy rains are possible from Wednesday evening.

- On the southern coasts of Mozambique (provinces of Inhambane and Gaza), dangerous sea conditions are expected from Wednesday.

[Subtrop]

WTIO24 FMEE 260026
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 38.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 12 UTC:
23.9 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 90 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 00 UTC:
24.5 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

[cycloneye]

System Information: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HONDE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 985 hPa.

Position on February 26 at 10 a.m. local time: 23.4 South / 38.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1715 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1350 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 9 km/h.

Key messages:

- Moderate Tropical Storm HONDE present in the southern Mozambique Channel intensified this morning.

- HONDE is expected to continue its gradual intensification and could reach tropical cyclone status on Thursday.

- It is a large system, with therefore a windy and rainy zone of influence quite far from the center.

- At the end of the week, HONDE should approach the southwest coast of Madagascar (Toliara province) while maintaining significant intensity, bringing disturbed conditions.

- Concerning the southwest of Madagascar (Toliara province), a dangerous sea state is expected from this Wednesday, heavy rains are likely from Wednesday evening and strong or even destructive winds are expected Friday and Saturday.

- On the southern coasts of Mozambique (provinces of Inhambane and Gaza), dangerous sea conditions are expected from this Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HONDE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 980 hPa.

Position on February 26 at 4 p.m. local time: 23.8 South / 39.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1655 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1360 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.

Key messages:

- Strong Tropical Storm HONDE present in the south of the Mozambique Channel intensified during the afternoon.

- HONDE is expected to continue its gradual intensification and could thus reach the stage of Tropical Cyclone on Thursday.

- HONDE is a large system, with a windy and rainy area of ​​influence quite far from the center.

- At the end of the week, HONDE should approach the south-western coast of Madagascar (Toliara province) while maintaining a mature stage, bringing disturbed conditions.

- Concerning the southwest of Madagascar (Toliara province), a dangerous sea state is expected from this Thursday, heavy rains are likely from Thursday and strong or even destructive winds are expected between Friday and Sunday (chronology still uncertain).

[cycloneye]

That is a large eye.

[cycloneye]

System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HONDE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 977 hPa.

Position on February 27 at 10 a.m. local time: 24.6 South / 41.2 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1495 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1380 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 13 km/h.

Key messages:

- The tropical system HONDE present in the south of the Mozambique Channel is still estimated this morning at the stage of a strong tropical storm. It is moving towards the east-southeast about 200km south-east of Europa. HONDE is a large system.

- HONDE is expected to continue its gradual intensification and could reach Tropical Cyclone status today.

- At the end of the week, HONDE should approach the south-western coast of Madagascar (Toliara province) while maintaining a mature stage, before slowly moving away towards the southern latitudes.

- Concerning the southwest of Madagascar (Toliara province), a dangerous sea state is expected from today, accompanied by heavy rains. Strong or even destructive winds are expected between Friday and Sunday (chronology still uncertain).

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/LimWeather/status/1895779000703992132

[cycloneye]

System Information: TROPICAL CYCLONE HONDE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 977 hPa.

Position on March 1 at 10 a.m. local time: 26.8 South / 45.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1210 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1550 km to sector: SOUTH

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 6 km/h.

Key messages:

- The tropical system HONDE remains at the stage of Tropical Cyclone. It moves slowly towards the east-southeast, about a hundred km south of Cape Sainte Marie and the Malagasy coast. HONDE is a large system, which is similar to a monsoon depression.

- HONDE could start to weaken slightly over the next few hours in a progressively more unfavorable environment. However, it should be able to maintain the Severe Tropical Storm stage this weekend. By the middle of next week, it should start to lose its tropical characteristics as it moves away towards southern latitudes.

- In connection with its slow movement off the Malagasy coast, the southwest of Madagascar (Toliara province) is experiencing disturbed weather in terms of strong to destructive winds, very heavy rains, and dangerous sea conditions. These degraded conditions are expected to continue until the beginning of next week.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/LimWeather/status/1895912983848763444

[cycloneye]

System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HONDE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 977 hPa.

Position on March 2 at 10 a.m. local time: 27.2 South / 45.9 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1165 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1590 km to sector: SOUTH

Movement: Quasi-stationary.

Key messages:

- The tropical system HONDE remains at the stage of a strong tropical storm. It is quasi-stationary about 180 km south of Madagascar and its structure has become a little more compact than in recent days.

- HONDE's intensity is expected to remain close to severe tropical storm status at least through Tuesday evening and could even temporarily reach tropical cyclone status early in the week as it begins to resume a more pronounced south-southeastward movement.

- From Wednesday, it should begin to lose its tropical characteristics as it moves away towards southern latitudes.

- The disturbed weather conditions that have affected the south and southwest of Madagascar (Toliara province) in recent days are slowly beginning to ease this Sunday in terms of strong winds and heavy rains. The sea state will remain dangerous until Monday morning.

[cycloneye]

System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HONDE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 982 hPa.

Position on March 3 at 4 p.m. local time: 27.8 South / 47.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1075 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1680 km to sector: SOUTH

Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 13 km/h.

Key messages:

- HONDE is located this Monday at the end of the afternoon more than 300km south-east of the Malagasy coast, at the stage of a strong tropical storm.

- Over the next 24 hours, HONDE could remain at the stage of a strong storm before beginning to lose its tropical characteristics and then weakening as it moves away towards southern latitudes.

- HONDE no longer generates a significant impact on inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HONDE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 985 hPa.

Position on March 4 at 10 p.m. local time: 30.7 South / 49.2 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1210 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 2020 km to sector: SOUTH

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 13 km/h.

Key messages:

- The strong tropical storm HONDE is moving away from the Malagasy coast, accelerating its progression towards the south-southeast.

- HONDE no longer generates impacts on inhabited land.

- Late tonight or even tomorrow morning, HONDE should begin to gradually lose its tropical characteristics as it moves away towards southern latitudes.

[cycloneye]

System Information: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION HONDE


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 985 hPa.

Position on March 5 at 10 a.m. local time: 32.5 South / 49.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1395 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 2220 km to sector: SOUTH

Movement: SOUTH, at 20 km/h.

Key messages:

The HONDE system is making its extra-tropical transition far from any inhabited land and is beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. HONDE, a post-tropical depression, will continue to sink into temperate latitudes and its remnants should disappear at the end of the week near Kerguelen.

The system no longer requires monitoring, so this is the last CMRS bulletin on the system.