2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
WeatherBoy2000
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:29 am

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Model

#61 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Wed Feb 26, 2025 11:03 am

WaveBreaking wrote:
cycloneye wrote: Still #3. :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/g7Lqq2E.jpeg




Crazy how the current MDR SSTs, while cooler than 2024’s, are still at the average values for May. That’s 2 months ahead of schedule. If we weren’t spoiled by 2023 and 2024’s ridiculous MDR temps, then maybe this season would be getting more attention at this point (barring exhaustion from the hyperactive season we had last year).


I honestly won't be surprised if this year ends up being similarly as active as last year just due to the fact that such an anomalous peak season shut down is unlikely to occur two years in a row. The +amo configuration largely remains along with no real signs of -enso conditions dissipating later in the year. No reason to expect anything less than above average for 2025 at this point imo.
8 likes   

User avatar
StPeteMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 622
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:26 pm

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#62 Postby StPeteMike » Wed Feb 26, 2025 8:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Still #3. :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/g7Lqq2E.jpeg

What do you think created the large drip during February, as 2025 was pretty close to 2024 up to late January.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Long John
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:50 am

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#63 Postby Long John » Wed Feb 26, 2025 8:08 pm

StPeteMike wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Still #3. :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/g7Lqq2E.jpeg

What do you think created the large drip during February, as 2025 was pretty close to 2024 up to late January.


The +NAO
1 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4051
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#64 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Feb 26, 2025 8:21 pm

Ok, bear with me, this may be a bit long, but here is 2025 recently compared to the most recent hurricane seasons (2025 to 2020, top to bottom).

2025
Image

2024
Image

2023
Image

2022
Image

2021
Image

2020
Image
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 816
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#65 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Feb 26, 2025 8:43 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Ok, bear with me, this may be a bit long, but here is 2025 recently compared to the most recent hurricane seasons (2025 to 2020, top to bottom).

2025
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_plain/daily/ssta/png/2025/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_20250224.png

2024
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_plain/daily/ssta/png/2024/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_20240224.png

2023
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_plain/daily/ssta/png/2023/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_20230224.png

2022
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_plain/daily/ssta/png/2022/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_20220224.png

2021
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_plain/daily/ssta/png/2021/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_20210224.png

2020
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_plain/daily/ssta/png/2020/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_20200224.png

Despite paling in comparison to last year 2025 still appears more +AMO-ish than the rest of the 2020s at this point in time, primarily by the way of the Canary Current and cooler anoms in the Sargasso Sea area. It's a little EOF2-ish with the highest concentration of positive anoms being removed N of the MDR though, albeit not overhwelmingly so.
5 likes   
Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.


Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#66 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 27, 2025 8:04 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#67 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 01, 2025 12:29 pm

NAO to go negative and you know what that means. Warmer waters.

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1895877740274073778


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 816
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#68 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Mar 01, 2025 3:36 pm

3 likes   

Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.


Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6246
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#69 Postby LarryWx » Sat Mar 01, 2025 4:57 pm



Andy has just been fired, believe it or not:

“Andy Hazelton is one of the DOGE victims. He isn’t the guy you see on television telling you where the hurricane’s going, he’s one of the NWS employees who work on making the forecast models as accurate as they can be. Now he’s gone.

Hazelton was at the National Hurricane Center, working on improving the GFS storm tracking model, when the email came in. He was fired after working more than eight years with NOAA, as a contract employee and recently as a federal staffer, still in his probationary period.”

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/noa ... s/3555471/
12 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1885
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#70 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Mar 01, 2025 6:51 pm

LarryWx wrote:


Andy has just been fired, believe it or not:

“Andy Hazelton is one of the DOGE victims. He isn’t the guy you see on television telling you where the hurricane’s going, he’s one of the NWS employees who work on making the forecast models as accurate as they can be. Now he’s gone.

Hazelton was at the National Hurricane Center, working on improving the GFS storm tracking model, when the email came in. He was fired after working more than eight years with NOAA, as a contract employee and recently as a federal staffer, still in his probationary period.”

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/noa ... s/3555471/



That is just terrible :(
14 likes   

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 816
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#71 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Mar 01, 2025 10:19 pm

LarryWx wrote:


Andy has just been fired, believe it or not:

“Andy Hazelton is one of the DOGE victims. He isn’t the guy you see on television telling you where the hurricane’s going, he’s one of the NWS employees who work on making the forecast models as accurate as they can be. Now he’s gone.

Hazelton was at the National Hurricane Center, working on improving the GFS storm tracking model, when the email came in. He was fired after working more than eight years with NOAA, as a contract employee and recently as a federal staffer, still in his probationary period.”

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/noa ... s/3555471/

Yeah I'm aware :( didn't bring it up to avoid veering into no-no territory regarding site rules but at the same time it's pretty relevant
7 likes   

Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.


Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6246
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#72 Postby LarryWx » Sat Mar 01, 2025 10:43 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
LarryWx wrote:


Andy has just been fired, believe it or not:

“Andy Hazelton is one of the DOGE victims. He isn’t the guy you see on television telling you where the hurricane’s going, he’s one of the NWS employees who work on making the forecast models as accurate as they can be. Now he’s gone.

Hazelton was at the National Hurricane Center, working on improving the GFS storm tracking model, when the email came in. He was fired after working more than eight years with NOAA, as a contract employee and recently as a federal staffer, still in his probationary period.”

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/noa ... s/3555471/

Yeah I'm aware :( didn't bring it up to avoid veering into no-no territory regarding site rules but at the same time it's pretty relevant


Other wx sites that don’t want the “no-no” stuff have been allowing posts with news about the NOAA/NWS cuts due to it being directly relevant to our hobby. That’s why I figured it would likely be allowed here. When I saw you posting an Andy tweet, I figured that it was even more relevant and thus posted. Plus it’s pretty quiet this time of year in the tropics, anyway.
12 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15827
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#73 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Mar 01, 2025 10:54 pm


2017 could also be an analog for ENSO. Something to watch.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4051
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#74 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Mar 02, 2025 10:35 am

LarryWx wrote:


Andy has just been fired, believe it or not:

“Andy Hazelton is one of the DOGE victims. He isn’t the guy you see on television telling you where the hurricane’s going, he’s one of the NWS employees who work on making the forecast models as accurate as they can be. Now he’s gone.

Hazelton was at the National Hurricane Center, working on improving the GFS storm tracking model, when the email came in. He was fired after working more than eight years with NOAA, as a contract employee and recently as a federal staffer, still in his probationary period.”

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/noa ... s/3555471/


Yeah, heard the news. Very sad to hear and feel very sorry for him as (despite his occasional bearish opinions on hurricane season, as we may all know), Andy's made some serious contributions to the wx community, especially with his work on models that analyzed Hurricane Milton's behavior and his role in reconaissance flights. He's also one of the prime voices that we hurricane enthusiasts follow, so I do hope he at least still gets to share his thoughts on the 2025 season whenever applicable.

I was going to post what happened the day it happened (Thursday), but I was also reminded of this site's policy regarding "no-no" topics. so ultimately decided against it. I can't help but wonder what those cuts would exactly entail for us here at Storm2k. However, whatever the case, I really do hope that some of the dark predictions don't pan out in the end and that clear messaging, proper evacuation orders/plans, model predictions, etc. ultimately prevail. Let's work as a team here on Storm2k, support one another, and go on from there.
11 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19989
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#75 Postby tolakram » Sun Mar 02, 2025 10:57 am

Back on topic please. I think most of us have similar opinions and discussing it here will not change anything.
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#76 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 05, 2025 8:52 am

Phil teases his April forecast with the Euro output.

@philklotzbach
·

Forecast from ECMWF calls for a near-average Atlantic #hurricane season through Sept, with ensemble average of ~12 named storms, ~5 hurricanes and ACE of 90% of normal. Forecast near-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral likely primary contributors.


 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1897276874432373055


2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

WeatherBoy2000
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:29 am

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#77 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Wed Mar 05, 2025 9:58 am

cycloneye wrote:Phil teases his April forecast with the Euro output.

@philklotzbach
·

Forecast from ECMWF calls for a near-average Atlantic #hurricane season through Sept, with ensemble average of ~12 named storms, ~5 hurricanes and ACE of 90% of normal. Forecast near-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral likely primary contributors.


 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1897276874432373055




Important to note that the euro has a well known warm enso bias.
0 likes   

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 816
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#78 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Mar 05, 2025 5:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:Phil teases his April forecast with the Euro output.

@philklotzbach
·

Forecast from ECMWF calls for a near-average Atlantic #hurricane season through Sept, with ensemble average of ~12 named storms, ~5 hurricanes and ACE of 90% of normal. Forecast near-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral likely primary contributors.


 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1897276874432373055



Here's an interesting thread expressing skepticism over the Euro's forecast. Danny Morris analyzes and diagnoses these things well:
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1897364396034458003



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1897364398156734782



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1897364400769818942



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1897364403139526842



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1897364406029484507



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1897364408676016150


6 likes   

Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.


Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#79 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 07, 2025 8:42 am

The NMME for March is up and Andy see it between average to slightly above average season.

@AndyHazelton
Latest NMME forecast seems to indicate a mixed bag for the Atlantic hurricane season. Keeps La Niña or cool neutral, which would be favorable. Atlantic is generally warm, but the subtropics are warmer than the deep tropics, which would probably cause some issues with stability. Overall, looks like a setup for an average to above average season. Verbatim the setup here seems to favor a lot of activity recurving and in the subtropics as opposed to the Caribbean/Gulf, but it's too early to be confident about something like that.


 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1897993756936155326


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#80 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 08, 2025 11:20 am

Image of NMME march run for ASO is up and the s2k poll is looming.

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, hurricanes1234 and 99 guests