Texas Spring 2025

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
txtwister78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1754
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#21 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Mar 02, 2025 2:21 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Very depressing weather pattern looks to be setting up over the next few weeks. The parts of TX in the worst drought will likely miss out on any meaningful rainfall...while areas that aren't in drought appear to get several rounds. Even worse, south and west TX will see critical fire weather conditions due to the strong winds, dry air, and extreme drought. I really hope the pattern changes later this month or else this summer could be horrific.


Yup. La Nina type pattern unfortunately taking shape where the West TX dryline surges east of I-35 and as a result leaves us warm and bone dry. Not what you want to see right out of the gate if you're a resident down here. It's early thankfully and April.& May are typically our months as I know you're aware to cash in but every wk counts to your point as the ongoing drought continues down here

In terms of the severe weather further north, the good news is despite shear values, the minimal instability and timing should help keep a lid on things up there overall. Bad news is dynamics are too far north to give us any shot of rain down here.
1 likes   

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2529
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#22 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Mar 02, 2025 2:43 pm

The dryline often doesn’t stay further west until later in the season. I wouldn’t despair yet.

I’m a little confused. I thought Tuesday was the big severe weather day in the AM for DFW. Now it’s Monday?

Trying to get some noise gel since our puppies barked like crazy at every thunder the other night. Our previous dogs never cared, so fun.
0 likes   

TomballEd
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Age: 61
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:52 pm
Location: Spring/Klein area, not Tomball

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#23 Postby TomballEd » Sun Mar 02, 2025 3:26 pm

No storms of note down this way, frontal passage in the morning but we should get rain. I suspect morning frontal passage means most of the strong/severe is E of I-35/I-45 closer to Louisiana and Arkansas. This won't be the last storm, I assume.
0 likes   

snownado
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 711
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2023 7:00 pm
Location: Plano, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#24 Postby snownado » Sun Mar 02, 2025 3:27 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:The dryline often doesn’t stay further west until later in the season. I wouldn’t despair yet.

I’m a little confused. I thought Tuesday was the big severe weather day in the AM for DFW. Now it’s Monday?

Trying to get some noise gel since our puppies barked like crazy at every thunder the other night. Our previous dogs never cared, so fun.


Timing of the front has sped up considerably (which is par for the course this time of year).

That said, it's mostly going to be a late Monday night / early Tuesday morning ordeal. That outlook covers a 24hr period from 12z Day 2 to 12z Day 3.
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1326
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#25 Postby wxman22 » Sun Mar 02, 2025 3:40 pm

Nothing major expected, but its that time of year again when small scale features can produce localized severe weather. :wink:

Image
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2450
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#26 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Mar 02, 2025 6:21 pm

So wait I'm confused when are we supposed to maybe get our hail, wind and tornadoes here in the north Texas area?
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

snownado
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 711
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2023 7:00 pm
Location: Plano, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#27 Postby snownado » Sun Mar 02, 2025 6:36 pm

DFW made it to 78*F before the mid-level clouds moved in around 2:30pm / 3pm.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37988
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#28 Postby Brent » Sun Mar 02, 2025 6:48 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:So wait I'm confused when are we supposed to maybe get our hail, wind and tornadoes here in the north Texas area?


Best chance Tuesday morning around rush hour. That storm is much stronger than the one tonight. Much better dynamics

Heck Tuesday may have a blizzard in Kansas that's how significant it is
1 likes   
#neversummer

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2450
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#29 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Mar 03, 2025 6:36 am

Got .17" overnight. I'll take it.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
wxman22
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1326
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#30 Postby wxman22 » Mon Mar 03, 2025 7:54 am

The bigger story this week up here may be the strong winds and wildfire danger.Including the potential for a dust storm. The NWS has my area under a High Wind Watch for the risk of damaging winds on Tuesday.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9279
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#31 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Mar 03, 2025 11:43 am

1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

cstrunk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:38 am
Location: Longview, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#32 Postby cstrunk » Mon Mar 03, 2025 12:16 pm

That Day 1 upgrade for tornado probabilities is concerning for NTX and S/C OK since it will be a late night/early morning threat. Hopefully storm mode stays messy and it doesn't get out of hand.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1326
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#33 Postby wxman22 » Mon Mar 03, 2025 12:43 pm

Considering the shear I’m not surprised with the upgrade to an Enhanced Risk.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a
squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central
Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts,
and large hail are all possible.

...Southern/Central Plains...
A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet
will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the
southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent
associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee
cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should
deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it
develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps
east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of
the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the
upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will
continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead
of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current
expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based
thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z.

Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the
Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense
thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into
south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures
aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear
will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with
an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick
transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front
moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north
TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within
the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming
sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based
convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing
near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the
strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to
support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it
sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end
of the period (early Tuesday morning).

Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints
into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of
southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some
guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return
likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around
63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of
western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective
initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and
severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this
region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best
combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast.
0 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5017
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#34 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Mar 03, 2025 1:32 pm

Was wondering if they were gonna pull the trigger on an upgrade. Looks like it's gonna be a long night lol
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2450
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#35 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Mar 03, 2025 1:40 pm



Okay here we go
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22730
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#36 Postby Ntxw » Mon Mar 03, 2025 1:43 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:


Okay here we go


This is mostly an early morning event for us, it won't have peak heating, mostly dynamics. Dixie may have a bigger event in the afternoon. Stormy early commute, very spring like.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#37 Postby Portastorm » Mon Mar 03, 2025 1:52 pm

Threat level is high tomorrow down in south central Texas but for different reasons. We could be looking at a terrible wildfire day. NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow as well as a Wind Advisory for westerly winds gusting as high as 55 mph. Extreme drought conditions, very dry air, and strong winds means that any spark or small fire may quickly grow into something more fearsome. Definitely feeling uneasy about this. :(
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Fifty Rock
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 112
Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2023 10:08 am
Location: Albany, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#38 Postby Fifty Rock » Mon Mar 03, 2025 3:16 pm

Portastorm wrote:Threat level is high tomorrow down in south central Texas but for different reasons. We could be looking at a terrible wildfire day. NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow as well as a Wind Advisory for westerly winds gusting as high as 55 mph. Extreme drought conditions, very dry air, and strong winds means that any spark or small fire may quickly grow into something more fearsome. Definitely feeling uneasy about this. :(


We have had strong winds out here for the last two days, with a High Wind Warning starting early tomorrow morning. The bad part is we're in wild fire country and we have a firebug running around setting fires, luckily we've been able to get on them quickly before they got out of hand.
0 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4197
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#39 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Mar 03, 2025 3:46 pm

Portastorm wrote:Threat level is high tomorrow down in south central Texas but for different reasons. We could be looking at a terrible wildfire day. NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow as well as a Wind Advisory for westerly winds gusting as high as 55 mph. Extreme drought conditions, very dry air, and strong winds means that any spark or small fire may quickly grow into something more fearsome. Definitely feeling uneasy about this. :(


Yeah I've been fearing a weather set up like tomorrow for a while now. The combination of those 3 things you mentioned could lead to some bad fires developing and quickly spreading across the area tomorrow. Praying we get through it without anything bad happening...we really need rain!
1 likes   

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2529
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Spring 2025

#40 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Mar 03, 2025 5:07 pm

Sounds like just a few quick spin-ups maybe along a line, so not supercell big tornadoes.
1 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Iceresistance, Storm861, Stratton23 and 26 guests