Texas Spring 2025

[Brent]

Sounds like just a few quick spin-ups maybe along a line, so not supercell big tornadoes.

Yeah I think our main widespread threat will be high winds probably

Bigger threat is definitely east. This is more of a Dixie setup like ntwx said

[wxman22]

I agree, I'm more concerned with straight line damaging winds than tornados tonight. There is a lot of wind energy available with this storm. And then tomorrow we may see non thunderstorm winds up to 60 mph here on the backside of the Low. So the damaging wind threat will continue even after the squall line moves through. Plus a risk of wildfires.

[TheAustinMan]

Even though the threat of severe thunderstorms might attract some attention, for much of Central Texas the threat of fire weather tomorrow is going to be much more considerable and cannot be understated. The SPC notes that Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday. Extremely critical fire weather is forecast for these areas, including the Austin and San Antonio areas. This is the first time since 2006 that the SPC has placed many of these areas under the risk of extremely critical fire weather.

Driving this fire weather threat is the abnormally strong trough that will be moving across the Central US tomorrow. This will result in a powerful mid-level jet core moving across Central Texas. As the latest AFD from NWS Austin/San Antonio notes, "there is strong consensus among model guidance that winds aloft will be within the upper echelon of climatological values". Based on model reanalyses, some of the winds aloft will be at record strength tomorrow afternoon. While the front tomorrow morning will bring in some cooler air at first, that will make it much easier for the surface boundary layer to grow upwards rapidly. This will make it easier to mix down the strong winds found aloft. Some of the guidance shows turbulent mixing occurring from the surface all the way to 7-9 thousand feet. That means momentum from the air that high up can potentially make it to the surface. For these reason, there's the potential for widespread 45-55 mph wind gusts occurring Tuesday throughout much of the state with sustained winds possibly topping 30 mph. This won't be short-lived either, with these conditions lasting for at least several hours.

Very dry air will coincide with the winds, to the tune of 5 to 15% relative humidity values over South-Central, South, and West Texas. There's been a lot of prescribed burns as of late, so hopefully folks are getting the memo. Any fire that ignites is going to spread rapidly and erratically under these conditions. This combination of widespread wind and widespread dryness to this extent and magnitude is not common for Central Texas.

[Brent]

The news here is showing 50 mph winds behind the line tomorrow evening it didn't even show that with the line at 5am!

[Ntxw]

Spring is known for these deepening lows. ~980mb low pressure will do it. It's why it's known as blizzard season in the plains.

Preconditioning for fires is definitely worrisome in the drought areas. Sub 20% humidity levels is very low.

[HockeyTx82]

So what's the consensus for the north Texas area for tomorrow morning in terms of timing and overall impact.

[Ntxw]

So what's the consensus for the north Texas area for tomorrow morning in terms of timing and overall impact.

Line of storms from 6am-10am west to east, will move quickly, probably 7-9am for the metro. Some heavy rain, perhaps severe thunderstorm watch. Brief isolated tornado spin up possible but time of day is not all that favorable. After it clears the wind will be brisk and strong the rest of the day.

[HockeyTx82]

So what's the consensus for the north Texas area for tomorrow morning in terms of timing and overall impact.

Line of storms from 6am-10am west to east, will move quickly. Some heavy rain, perhaps severe thunderstorm watch. Brief isolated tornado spin up possible but time of day is not all that favorable. After it clears the wind will be brisk and strong the rest of the day.

Yeah I was just looking at the latest hrrr and it looks interesting but not apocalyptic by any means. Doesn't mean we won't get some wind and yeah around 5:00 a.m. it hits my area.

It's times like these I really appreciate this board having the ability just to talk things out especially with the severe weather season.

[Ntxw]

So what's the consensus for the north Texas area for tomorrow morning in terms of timing and overall impact.

Line of storms from 6am-10am west to east, will move quickly. Some heavy rain, perhaps severe thunderstorm watch. Brief isolated tornado spin up possible but time of day is not all that favorable. After it clears the wind will be brisk and strong the rest of the day.

Yeah I was just looking at the latest hrrr and it looks interesting but not apocalyptic by any means. Doesn't mean we won't get some wind and yeah around 5:00 a.m. it hits my area.

It's times like these I really appreciate this board having the ability just to talk things out especially with the severe weather season.

Yeah every spring storm has potential, and we get quite a few of them. It's later in the season that they have more cape and moist air to work with, still a bit early. Winter has the storms, but not the instability. At this point the storms are still strong but a little more instability. Storms slowly weaken towards summer but way more instability and it's when you get that goldilocks point cross between the ingredients 1 or 2 big threats in April and May, typically.

[HockeyTx82]

Line of storms from 6am-10am west to east, will move quickly. Some heavy rain, perhaps severe thunderstorm watch. Brief isolated tornado spin up possible but time of day is not all that favorable. After it clears the wind will be brisk and strong the rest of the day.

Yeah I was just looking at the latest hrrr and it looks interesting but not apocalyptic by any means. Doesn't mean we won't get some wind and yeah around 5:00 a.m. it hits my area.

It's times like these I really appreciate this board having the ability just to talk things out especially with the severe weather season.

Yeah every spring storm has potential, and we get quite a few of them. It's later in the season that they have more cape and moist air to work with, still a bit early. Winter has the storms, but not the instability. At this point the storms are still strong but a little more instability. Storms slowly weaken towards summer but way more instability and it's when you get that goldilocks point cross between the ingredients 1 or 2 big threats in April and May, typically.

You forgot to mention all the social media hype events that never materialize

That all being said having lived in North Texas my entire life, spring time is always an interesting time to say the least.

[Brent]

Strangely Mike Morgan is not hyping tonight downplaying the tornado threat. Well see how that goes

And there's the tornado watch NW of DFW and all of Oklahoma

[Sambucol2024]

Is the Houston area safe from severe weather tomorrow? We are about 30 miles east of Houston along Interstate 10 in Mont Belvieu.

[ElectricStorm]

Outflow dominant and elevated, pretty underwhelming line so far but I'll take that over nocturnal tornado outbreak any day. It's right on my doorstep and haven't even heard any thunder yet. There may be better tornado potential down by the Red River though closer to sunrise

[snownado]

Line of storms from 6am-10am west to east, will move quickly. Some heavy rain, perhaps severe thunderstorm watch. Brief isolated tornado spin up possible but time of day is not all that favorable. After it clears the wind will be brisk and strong the rest of the day.

Yeah I was just looking at the latest hrrr and it looks interesting but not apocalyptic by any means. Doesn't mean we won't get some wind and yeah around 5:00 a.m. it hits my area.

It's times like these I really appreciate this board having the ability just to talk things out especially with the severe weather season.

Yeah every spring storm has potential, and we get quite a few of them. It's later in the season that they have more cape and moist air to work with, still a bit early. Winter has the storms, but not the instability. At this point the storms are still strong but a little more instability. Storms slowly weaken towards summer but way more instability and it's when you get that goldilocks point cross between the ingredients 1 or 2 big threats in April and May, typically.

It should be noted, one of DFW's worst severe weather events ever was last season on 5/28, which occurred betwen 4 and 6am.

And before that, it was 6/9/19.

So yes, while the early morning hours are generally unfavorable for severe t'storms and late May / June is well past the climatological peak for an outbreak, even then I still wouldn't advise letting one's guard down.

Tonight's setup is kind of unique for an early season event in that we have exceptionally steep mid-level lapse rates (approaching 9 C/KM) combined with exceptionally strong low-level shear and a negative-tilt trough. Even with it being during diurnal minimum and the seasonably cool boundary layer, it won't take much for the storms to remain organized and for those winds to mix down to the surface. The only real wild card, as implied earlier by another post, is whether the storm-mode will become outflow dominant or messy.

[snownado]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0127.html

[Brent]

Total bust in Oklahoma so far. Barely even any wind

At least we broke the cycle of nocturnal tornado outbreaks in populated areas

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0127.html

Dewpoint is 65F IMBY. Guess we shall see.

[Haddox12]

I’m in Royse City and the straight line winds out here are pretty insane. My backyard is already blown to hell and the house is creakin pretty good. That line looks to still be about 150 miles out so hopefully this sucker doesn’t blow on me till then because it’s pretty impressive. My front door is whistling.

[HockeyTx82]

It's knocking on my backdoor

[rwfromkansas]

70 mph winds….sirens going off.