https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1896260328805257388
2025 Severe Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to
shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread
portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the
central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the
Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should
provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley.
Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also
play a role in convective evolution/development.
...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley...
Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of
Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some
cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree
of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent
along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to
move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some
linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected
within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where
there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central
Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors
oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential
should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater
surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this
environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible.
Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered
damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms.
...Mid-South...
Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based,
particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be
quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface
moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce
damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low
severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in
this scenario increases.
...Alabama/Georgia...
The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as
buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong
wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface
gusts and perhaps a tornado.
]NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to
shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread
portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the
central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the
Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should
provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley.
Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also
play a role in convective evolution/development.
...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley...
Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of
Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some
cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree
of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent
along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to
move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some
linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected
within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where
there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central
Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors
oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential
should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater
surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this
environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible.
Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered
damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms.
...Mid-South...
Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based,
particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be
quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface
moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce
damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low
severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in
this scenario increases.
...Alabama/Georgia...
The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as
buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong
wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface
gusts and perhaps a tornado.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments
into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident
among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale
pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America.
Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the
Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains
through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night,
accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis.
Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and
deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through
northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a
substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the
southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower
Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more
modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the
outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of
the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge
shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying
large-scale mid/upper troughing.
A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the
western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across
eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting
eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In
response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models
suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will
probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late
Tuesday night.
Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially
extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through
southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture
return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable
surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output
still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while
developing eastward through the day.
Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated
and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale
ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to
support extensive convective development across the interior U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least
a conditional risk for severe storms.
...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone
across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary
initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this
period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the
southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it
contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave
perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions
may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm
cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells.
Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may
include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer
on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi
during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for
supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the
strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the
convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential
remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster
developing along/above a maturing cold pool
Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface
thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the
large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast
soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating
factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential,
particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
eastern Gulf Coast states.
..Kerr.. 03/03/2025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments
into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident
among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale
pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America.
Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the
Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains
through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night,
accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis.
Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and
deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through
northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a
substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the
southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower
Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more
modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the
outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of
the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge
shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying
large-scale mid/upper troughing.
A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the
western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across
eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting
eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In
response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models
suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will
probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late
Tuesday night.
Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially
extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through
southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture
return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable
surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output
still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while
developing eastward through the day.
Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated
and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale
ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to
support extensive convective development across the interior U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least
a conditional risk for severe storms.
...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone
across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary
initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this
period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the
southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it
contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave
perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions
may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm
cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells.
Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may
include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer
on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi
during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for
supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the
strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the
convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential
remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster
developing along/above a maturing cold pool
Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface
thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the
large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast
soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating
factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential,
particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
eastern Gulf Coast states.
..Kerr.. 03/03/2025
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds,
and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley
into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone
across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough
moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave
trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+
kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast
to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day
before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The
strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading
across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley
this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to
induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout
the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS
Valley.
At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is
currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was
observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold
front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward
into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are
currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the
expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as
the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this
line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently
analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low
southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for
thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several
hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along
the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA
southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and
limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and
southern AR.
...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther
downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid
strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough.
General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the
AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s
dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The
warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s
dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by
later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields
across the entire region, the advection and extent of these
dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential
this afternoon and evening.
A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with
some intensification expected as downstream destabilization
increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for
embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains
for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the
coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent
convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be
limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given
the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is
possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists,
particularly across the Lower MS Valley.
This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves
east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A
continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will
remain the primary severe hazards.
...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois...
As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through
the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying
the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating
in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern
Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped
convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple
of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and
possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening.
..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds,
and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley
into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone
across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough
moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave
trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+
kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast
to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day
before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The
strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading
across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley
this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to
induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout
the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS
Valley.
At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is
currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was
observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold
front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward
into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are
currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the
expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as
the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this
line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently
analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low
southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for
thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several
hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along
the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA
southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and
limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and
southern AR.
...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther
downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid
strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough.
General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the
AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s
dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The
warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s
dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by
later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields
across the entire region, the advection and extent of these
dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential
this afternoon and evening.
A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with
some intensification expected as downstream destabilization
increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for
embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains
for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the
coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent
convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be
limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given
the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is
possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists,
particularly across the Lower MS Valley.
This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves
east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A
continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will
remain the primary severe hazards.
...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois...
As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through
the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying
the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating
in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern
Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped
convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple
of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and
possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening.
..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
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Brent
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
Already outbreak wording for Friday 
highest probabilities at that range possible on Saturday too
highest probabilities at that range possible on Saturday too
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#neversummer
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
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Brent
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
Tornado hits during live TV broadcast in the Orlando suburbs during
a marginal risk!
the storm went on to produce ef2 damage elsewhere
Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=p--T_HA79i8
a marginal risk!
the storm went on to produce ef2 damage elsewhere Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=p--T_HA79i8
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#neversummer
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT...
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley...
A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across
the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will
move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the
surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is
forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across
the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich
Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys.
Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures
are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would
foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell
wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the
evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning
hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively
pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated
convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur.
If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup
supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of
LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading
east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the
coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk
area may be needed in future outlooks.
With northward extent, instability will become more limited.
Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will
support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and
portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night.
Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if
confidence increases.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT...
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley...
A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across
the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will
move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the
surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is
forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across
the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich
Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys.
Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures
are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would
foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell
wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the
evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning
hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively
pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated
convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur.
If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup
supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of
LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading
east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the
coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk
area may be needed in future outlooks.
With northward extent, instability will become more limited.
Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will
support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and
portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night.
Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if
confidence increases.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
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ElectricStorm
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
If model trends hold, Saturday looks like one of the more dangerous Dixie setups I've seen in quite some time. There's fail modes like every event, in this case potential for a messy storm mode/morning convection but overall this looks like the real deal. Think there could be potential for a rare Day 3 moderate if trends continue.
Friday still looks dangerous as well, especially for the southern half after dark if supercells are able to fire. Will probably see a nasty QLCS further north. Looks like the first real multi day outbreak of 2025 is here.
Friday still looks dangerous as well, especially for the southern half after dark if supercells are able to fire. Will probably see a nasty QLCS further north. Looks like the first real multi day outbreak of 2025 is here.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the
Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging
winds, several tornadoes, and hail will all be possible.
...Synopsis...
An upper low associated with a powerful shortwave trough will deepen
through the period, moving from NM at 12Z Friday to WI by 12Z
Saturday. An associated intense midlevel speed max will pivot from
OK at midday into the mid MS Valley by 00Z, then will lose intensity
late as it approaches MI. Large-scale ascent will be maximized north
of the midlevel jet roughly from the Ozarks and Ohio Valley
northward.
At the surface, low pressure (sub 980 mb) will deepen from KS into
IA through evening, with a large expanse of southerly winds across
the warm sector aiding northward moisture advection.
Behind the primary wave, another system will be dig into northern MX
and TX Saturday morning. This should maintain gradual height falls
over the southeastern states through the period, despite being south
of the initial system.
...Most of the area from the mid MO Valley into the TN Valley...
A classic, progressive deep-layer cyclone will interact with a
increasingly unstable air mass to produce widespread wind damage
beginning near the KS/MO and OK/AR borders during early afternoon,
and expanding northeast across much of MO, IA, IL, IN, western KY
and parts of western TN through evening. Not only will extreme wind
field favor damaging winds, but profiles will also favor supercells
capable of fast-moving tornadoes, whether a broken line or in QLCS
fashion along surging outflows. The steep lapse rates and rapid
changes overall will also support strong tornado potential
interspersed with the damaging wind area. Last, cells will also
produce hail over northern areas where temperatures aloft are cold.
...MS/AL/TN Overnight...
As the upper wave departs to the north, mid to perhaps upper 60s F
dewpoints will surge north across MS, western AL and the western FL
Panhandle during the evening and overnight. As mentioned, height
falls will be maintained due to the secondary wave moving into TX.
The result will be a persistent 50-60 kt low-level jet beneath 60 kt
midlevel southwesterlies, and increasing boundary-layer moisture.
This regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorms after 06Z,
and the overall environment conditionally supports strong tornadoes.
The severe risk will only increase into Saturday/D4. As such, have
extended the Enhanced Risk farther south across MS and western AL
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the
Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging
winds, several tornadoes, and hail will all be possible.
...Synopsis...
An upper low associated with a powerful shortwave trough will deepen
through the period, moving from NM at 12Z Friday to WI by 12Z
Saturday. An associated intense midlevel speed max will pivot from
OK at midday into the mid MS Valley by 00Z, then will lose intensity
late as it approaches MI. Large-scale ascent will be maximized north
of the midlevel jet roughly from the Ozarks and Ohio Valley
northward.
At the surface, low pressure (sub 980 mb) will deepen from KS into
IA through evening, with a large expanse of southerly winds across
the warm sector aiding northward moisture advection.
Behind the primary wave, another system will be dig into northern MX
and TX Saturday morning. This should maintain gradual height falls
over the southeastern states through the period, despite being south
of the initial system.
...Most of the area from the mid MO Valley into the TN Valley...
A classic, progressive deep-layer cyclone will interact with a
increasingly unstable air mass to produce widespread wind damage
beginning near the KS/MO and OK/AR borders during early afternoon,
and expanding northeast across much of MO, IA, IL, IN, western KY
and parts of western TN through evening. Not only will extreme wind
field favor damaging winds, but profiles will also favor supercells
capable of fast-moving tornadoes, whether a broken line or in QLCS
fashion along surging outflows. The steep lapse rates and rapid
changes overall will also support strong tornado potential
interspersed with the damaging wind area. Last, cells will also
produce hail over northern areas where temperatures aloft are cold.
...MS/AL/TN Overnight...
As the upper wave departs to the north, mid to perhaps upper 60s F
dewpoints will surge north across MS, western AL and the western FL
Panhandle during the evening and overnight. As mentioned, height
falls will be maintained due to the secondary wave moving into TX.
The result will be a persistent 50-60 kt low-level jet beneath 60 kt
midlevel southwesterlies, and increasing boundary-layer moisture.
This regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorms after 06Z,
and the overall environment conditionally supports strong tornadoes.
The severe risk will only increase into Saturday/D4. As such, have
extended the Enhanced Risk farther south across MS and western AL
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Moderate Risk issued
Moderate Risk issued
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL...
...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central
Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant
tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and
hail are expected.
...Synopsis...
An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into
Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper
trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong
southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt)
will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and
continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater
than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep
South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime
hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is
expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and
possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low
60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should
support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the
central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday.
...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity...
Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread
precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are
not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough
ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South.
Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a
moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine
across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection
develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer,
leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing
with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind
profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate
instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells.
Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be
possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the
evening/nighttime hours.
Additional convection is expected to develop along an
eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the
overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging
wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward
into GA and the western Carolinas overnight.
...Ohio Valley...
Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley
on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast
Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is
uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in
the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could
largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However,
if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization
could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from
the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of
deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within
bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL...
...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central
Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant
tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and
hail are expected.
...Synopsis...
An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into
Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper
trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong
southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt)
will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and
continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater
than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep
South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime
hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is
expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and
possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low
60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should
support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the
central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday.
...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity...
Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread
precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are
not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough
ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South.
Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a
moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine
across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection
develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer,
leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing
with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind
profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate
instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells.
Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be
possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the
evening/nighttime hours.
Additional convection is expected to develop along an
eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the
overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging
wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward
into GA and the western Carolinas overnight.
...Ohio Valley...
Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley
on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast
Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is
uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in
the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could
largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However,
if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization
could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from
the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of
deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within
bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143862
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Moderate Risk issued
James Spann has strong wording.
HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: Alabamians will need to pay very close attention to the weather tomorrow night through Saturday night as a dynamic storm system will bring two rounds of severe thunderstorms to the state.
ROUND ONE
*This comes in the window from 10:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Saturday.
*SPC has defined an "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) for much of West Alabama for this event, with a "slight risk" (level 2/5) as far east and south as Scottsboro, Prattville, and Grove Hill.
*Highest risk of severe storms with "round one" will be over the western half of the state.
*Where storms develop, they will be capable of producing hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are possible as well.
ROUND TWO
*This is the "main show"; the window is from 12 noon Saturday through 3:00 a.m. Sunday.
*A "moderate risk" (level 4/5) has been defined in a broad zone from Birmingham to Mobile, the rest of the state is in an "enhanced risk" (level 3/5).
*Storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A few violent, long track tornadoes are possible.
KEY MESSAGES
*Our goal for any severe weather event in Alabama is no loss of life, and no serious injuries. It takes us all working together to make that happen. Everyone must have a reliable way of hearing warnings. Never, ever an outdoor siren. Never. A NOAA Weather Radio should be in every Alabama home and business. On your phone, have WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled (look under notifications and be sure "emergency alerts" are active), and have the 33/40 weather app installed.
*In your safe place, have helmets for everyone, including adults. Most serious injuries in tornadoes involve blunt force trauma above the shoulders.
*If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter, or business open 24/7 that can serve as a shelter. Have transportation arranged so you can get there quickly.
*If you are reading this, you pay attention to weather. Understand many people don’t keep up with the weather, so you can be a hero during the severe weather event. Let them know this is a high end threat. During the event, if you have a friend or loved one in a tornado warning polygon, call or text them to let them know of the immediate danger. You can play a huge role in saving lives.
*Subscribe to the James Spann and ABC 33/40 YouTube channels so you can watch our live coverage. We are thankful for the out of state YouTubers who do long form severe weather coverage, but to be truly successful in reaching people and communicating warnings in high end severe weather events like this, you have to understand the people, culture, geography, and microclimate of the region impacted.
*We don't share any of this to scare people. But strong wording is necessary on occasion, and this is one of those times. Get the warnings, have a good plan, and we get through this together.
https://x.com/spann/status/1900140133690523748
HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: Alabamians will need to pay very close attention to the weather tomorrow night through Saturday night as a dynamic storm system will bring two rounds of severe thunderstorms to the state.
ROUND ONE
*This comes in the window from 10:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Saturday.
*SPC has defined an "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) for much of West Alabama for this event, with a "slight risk" (level 2/5) as far east and south as Scottsboro, Prattville, and Grove Hill.
*Highest risk of severe storms with "round one" will be over the western half of the state.
*Where storms develop, they will be capable of producing hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are possible as well.
ROUND TWO
*This is the "main show"; the window is from 12 noon Saturday through 3:00 a.m. Sunday.
*A "moderate risk" (level 4/5) has been defined in a broad zone from Birmingham to Mobile, the rest of the state is in an "enhanced risk" (level 3/5).
*Storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A few violent, long track tornadoes are possible.
KEY MESSAGES
*Our goal for any severe weather event in Alabama is no loss of life, and no serious injuries. It takes us all working together to make that happen. Everyone must have a reliable way of hearing warnings. Never, ever an outdoor siren. Never. A NOAA Weather Radio should be in every Alabama home and business. On your phone, have WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled (look under notifications and be sure "emergency alerts" are active), and have the 33/40 weather app installed.
*In your safe place, have helmets for everyone, including adults. Most serious injuries in tornadoes involve blunt force trauma above the shoulders.
*If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter, or business open 24/7 that can serve as a shelter. Have transportation arranged so you can get there quickly.
*If you are reading this, you pay attention to weather. Understand many people don’t keep up with the weather, so you can be a hero during the severe weather event. Let them know this is a high end threat. During the event, if you have a friend or loved one in a tornado warning polygon, call or text them to let them know of the immediate danger. You can play a huge role in saving lives.
*Subscribe to the James Spann and ABC 33/40 YouTube channels so you can watch our live coverage. We are thankful for the out of state YouTubers who do long form severe weather coverage, but to be truly successful in reaching people and communicating warnings in high end severe weather events like this, you have to understand the people, culture, geography, and microclimate of the region impacted.
*We don't share any of this to scare people. But strong wording is necessary on occasion, and this is one of those times. Get the warnings, have a good plan, and we get through this together.
https://x.com/spann/status/1900140133690523748
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Brent
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Moderate Risk issued / James Spann with strong wording
First day 3 moderate in 3 years
The ceiling is dangerously high here if everything lines up right
Hopefully it won't but it is Alabama in the spring. Bad things have happened before and will happen again some day. It was 4 years ago this March that James Spann's house even got hit
The ceiling is dangerously high here if everything lines up right
Hopefully it won't but it is Alabama in the spring. Bad things have happened before and will happen again some day. It was 4 years ago this March that James Spann's house even got hit
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#neversummer
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WaveBreaking
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Moderate Risk issued / James Spann with strong wording
A high-amplitude, slow moving trough with multiple negatively-tilted shortwaves ejecting from it is definitely not something you see everyday.
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I am NOT a professional meteorologist, so take all of my posts with a grain of salt. My opinions are mine and mine alone.
Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Moderate Risk issued / James Spann with strong wording
WaveBreaking wrote:A high-amplitude, slow moving trough with multiple negatively-tilted shortwaves ejecting from it is definitely not something you see everyday.
Thanks for posting, fantastic loop showing the magnitude of the trough/dynamism. Wish the looping slowed once the time intervals increased.
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