https://x.com/BOM_au/status/1897750271167520871
SPAC: ALFRED - Ex Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: ALFRED - Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: ALFRED - Tropical Cyclone
Keeps approaching the coast.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: ALFRED - Tropical Cyclone
Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 8:00 pm AEST [9:00 pm AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 27.6 degrees South 153.9 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres east of Brisbane and 70 kilometres northeast of Gold Coast.
Movement: west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred, category 2, will continue to move slowly towards the southeast Queensland coast.
Alfred is most likely to cross over the Moreton Bay Islands Saturday morning before crossing the mainland coast, most likely between Noosa and Beenleigh later during the day.
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 27.6 degrees South 153.9 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres east of Brisbane and 70 kilometres northeast of Gold Coast.
Movement: west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred, category 2, will continue to move slowly towards the southeast Queensland coast.
Alfred is most likely to cross over the Moreton Bay Islands Saturday morning before crossing the mainland coast, most likely between Noosa and Beenleigh later during the day.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: ALFRED - Tropical Cyclone
Center comming to the coast.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: ALFRED - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 46
Issued at 2:52 am EST on Saturday 8 March 2025
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving across Moreton Bay and approaching the mainland. Rainfall, wind and ocean impacts are likely to continue over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales over the weekend.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Noosa in Queensland to Cape Byron in New South Wales, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Byron Bay.
Watch Zone
None.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 3:00 am AEST [4:00 am AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 27.1 degrees South 153.3 degrees East, estimated to be 50 kilometres north northeast of Brisbane and 100 kilometres north of Gold Coast.
Movement: northwest at 10 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred, category 1, is moving across Moreton Bay and is expected to cross the mainland coast, between Maroochydore and Brisbane, in the vicinity of Bribie Island early this morning. As soon as Alfred crosses the mainland coast this morning, it will weaken below tropical cyclone strength as it moves inland today.
Issued at 2:52 am EST on Saturday 8 March 2025
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving across Moreton Bay and approaching the mainland. Rainfall, wind and ocean impacts are likely to continue over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales over the weekend.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Noosa in Queensland to Cape Byron in New South Wales, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Byron Bay.
Watch Zone
None.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 3:00 am AEST [4:00 am AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 27.1 degrees South 153.3 degrees East, estimated to be 50 kilometres north northeast of Brisbane and 100 kilometres north of Gold Coast.
Movement: northwest at 10 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred, category 1, is moving across Moreton Bay and is expected to cross the mainland coast, between Maroochydore and Brisbane, in the vicinity of Bribie Island early this morning. As soon as Alfred crosses the mainland coast this morning, it will weaken below tropical cyclone strength as it moves inland today.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: ALFRED - Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: ALFRED - Ex Tropical Cyclone
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 6:00 am AEST [7:00 am AEDT]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 26.9 degrees South 153.3 degrees East, estimated to be 65 kilometres north northeast of Brisbane and 40 kilometres south southeast of Maroochydore.
Movement: northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred lies off Bribie Island and is moving slowly north. Gales are no longer occurring over coastal or island locations. It is expected to move towards and cross the mainland coast this morning, with winds weakening further as it moves inland.
Despite its weakening, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales during the weekend.
Hazards:
HEAVY RAINFALL is expected to continue over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales during the weekend. HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING may occur over coastal and adjacent inland areas of southeast Queensland as Ex-Alfred moves inland during today. Separate Severe Weather Warning, Flood Watches, and Flood Warnings are current for southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are no longer occurring along the coastal areas, but are expected to be higher than normal over the weekend. However, DAMAGING SURF may continue with significant beach erosion for the open beaches between Noosa and Ballina during the weekend. Separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf warnings are current for southeast Queensland and New South Wales coasts.
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are no longer occurring near Ex-Alfred's centre or over offshore areas. Refer to a separate Severe Weather Warning for possibility of DAMAGING WIND GUSTS about elevated terrain, along the southern border ranges during today.
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 26.9 degrees South 153.3 degrees East, estimated to be 65 kilometres north northeast of Brisbane and 40 kilometres south southeast of Maroochydore.
Movement: northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred lies off Bribie Island and is moving slowly north. Gales are no longer occurring over coastal or island locations. It is expected to move towards and cross the mainland coast this morning, with winds weakening further as it moves inland.
Despite its weakening, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales during the weekend.
Hazards:
HEAVY RAINFALL is expected to continue over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales during the weekend. HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING may occur over coastal and adjacent inland areas of southeast Queensland as Ex-Alfred moves inland during today. Separate Severe Weather Warning, Flood Watches, and Flood Warnings are current for southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are no longer occurring along the coastal areas, but are expected to be higher than normal over the weekend. However, DAMAGING SURF may continue with significant beach erosion for the open beaches between Noosa and Ballina during the weekend. Separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf warnings are current for southeast Queensland and New South Wales coasts.
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are no longer occurring near Ex-Alfred's centre or over offshore areas. Refer to a separate Severe Weather Warning for possibility of DAMAGING WIND GUSTS about elevated terrain, along the southern border ranges during today.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: ALFRED - Ex Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: ALFRED - Ex Tropical Cyclone
Bye.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0644 UTC 08/03/2025
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 26.9S
Longitude: 153.3E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm (95 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 08/1200: 26.8S 152.6E: 025 (040): 025 (045): 1001
+12: 08/1800: 27.0S 151.4E: 035 (070): 020 (035): 1005
+18: 09/0000: 27.4S 150.4E: 050 (090): 020 (035): 1005
+24: 09/0600: : : :
+36: 09/1800: : : :
+48: 10/0600: : : :
+60: 10/1800: : : :
+72: 11/0600: : : :
+96: 12/0600: : : :
+120: 13/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred lies off Bribie Island and is very slow moving. It
is expected to cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Caboolture
this evening.
Gales associated with the circulation have eased, however, synoptically
enhanced gales with a large high pressure system to the south are occurring
along the northern Byron coast and southern Gold Coast coastal waters. The
morning ASCAT pass at 2303 UTC confirmed gales in this area.
Position is based on radar imagery and surface observations with good
confidence. Dvorak analysis: DT unable to be obtained. MET is 1.5 based on a 24
hour W trend PT is 1.0. FT is 1.0 with CI held at 1.5. Analysed intensity is
set at 25 knots based primarily on nearby surface observations.
Alfred is expected to move westward and over the mainland coast this evening,
being steered by a high in the Tasman Sea. Alfred is expected to cause heavy
rain areas over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales during the
weekend.
This will be the final Technical Bulletin for Alfred.
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0644 UTC 08/03/2025
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 26.9S
Longitude: 153.3E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm (95 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 08/1200: 26.8S 152.6E: 025 (040): 025 (045): 1001
+12: 08/1800: 27.0S 151.4E: 035 (070): 020 (035): 1005
+18: 09/0000: 27.4S 150.4E: 050 (090): 020 (035): 1005
+24: 09/0600: : : :
+36: 09/1800: : : :
+48: 10/0600: : : :
+60: 10/1800: : : :
+72: 11/0600: : : :
+96: 12/0600: : : :
+120: 13/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred lies off Bribie Island and is very slow moving. It
is expected to cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Caboolture
this evening.
Gales associated with the circulation have eased, however, synoptically
enhanced gales with a large high pressure system to the south are occurring
along the northern Byron coast and southern Gold Coast coastal waters. The
morning ASCAT pass at 2303 UTC confirmed gales in this area.
Position is based on radar imagery and surface observations with good
confidence. Dvorak analysis: DT unable to be obtained. MET is 1.5 based on a 24
hour W trend PT is 1.0. FT is 1.0 with CI held at 1.5. Analysed intensity is
set at 25 knots based primarily on nearby surface observations.
Alfred is expected to move westward and over the mainland coast this evening,
being steered by a high in the Tasman Sea. Alfred is expected to cause heavy
rain areas over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales during the
weekend.
This will be the final Technical Bulletin for Alfred.
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