2025 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,here is the poll you were waiting for,the forecast numbers poll for, the 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season that is here to forget about winter and talk about tropical weather and see how the season will be in terms of the numbers. Below are a few tips about this poll:

1-You can post your numbers whenever you want between March 9th between 2 PM EDT and May 31st at Midnight EDT when the poll closes. Also members can add a brief commentary if you want to do so about why you have the numbers you posted in the poll.

2-You can post a set of numbers and not change them anymore and in that case, I will consider your numbers as final.

3-If you have preliminary numbers and later post final ones, those will be posted with the word Final. If by May 31rst at Midnight EDT when the poll closes,there are still members that have preliminary numbers,I will consider them as final ones.

4-Any early named system(s) that may form before June 1rst will count for the set of numbers.

5-If a system is upgraded from a Tropical Storm to a Hurricane in Post-Season Report,it will count for the final tally to see which members came close or nailed the numbers.

6-(Optional) The ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) numbers for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season will not count for the poll but if any member wants to post what they think about how the ACE will be,go ahead.

7-Anyone can participate,from the pro mets,those who like Tropical Weather and like to track tropical systems,those who don't know a lot about tropical weather,and the newbies too are welcomed.I know that the numbers are not the most important thing in a season, but more important are where the storms will go,so it doesn't matter how many named storms form,as it only takes one storm to do all the damage to an area. However,it's always very interesting to make a poll like this to see what the members think about the numbers game and how active or not the season will turn out and at the end of the season, will see how many members get close or tie what the 2024 season will offer.

8-Dont worry if you are not added fast to the list because,as soon I come on-line, will be added. So let's get this thing rolling guys and gals and let's see if this 2025 poll has a better participation than the 2024 one,that only had 81 members participating. Can we do much better having 200+ participants?


9- If any member wants to look at the past polls since 2005, click the link that gets you to the Storm2k forecasting contest forum. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=25

Good luck to all.






List of participants

1- cycloneye= 16/8/4 ACE:156 (Preliminary)

2- Sciencerocks=16/8/3 ACE: 154 (Preliminary)

3- Category5Kaiju =18/8/4 ACE: 145 (Preliminary)

4- Teban54= 16/8/3 ACE: 135 (Preliminary)

5- CFLHurricane= 14/6/2 ACE: 110 (Final)

6- cheezyWXguy= 15/7/4 ACE: 135 (Final)

7- KirbyDude25= 18/8/3 ACE: 135 (Preliminary)

8- Tireman4= 19/10/4 (Final)

9- Hurricane2022= 14/7/3 ACE 125 (Preliminary)

10- AnnularCane= 16/7/3 (Preliminary)

11- StPeteMike= 18/10/5 ACE: 170 (Preliminary)

12- Old-TimeCane=17/9/4 ACE: 148 (Preliminary)

13- StormWeather= 17/8/5 ACE: 170 (Preliminary)

14- chaser1= 15/7/2 ACE: 122 (Final)

15- galaxy401= 16/7/4 (Preliminary)

16- chris_fit= 12/7/3 ACE: 125 (Final)

17- woofde= 16/8/4 ACE: 140 (Preliminary)

18- AtlanticWind= 17/7/3 ACE: 131 (Preliminary)

19- WaveBreaking= 17/6/3 ACE: 135 (Preliminary)

20- tolakram= 14/6/2 ACE: 100 (Final)

21- ElectricStorm= 16/6/2 ACE: 105 (Preliminary)

22- kanye= 22/11/7 ACE: 240 (Final)

23- sasha_B= 18/9/5 (Preliminary)

24- TampaFI= 17/9/4 ACE: 149 (Final)

25- kevin= 16/8/5 ACE: 145 (Preliminary)

26- DorkyMcDorkface=16/8/4 ACE: 140 (Preliminary)

27- Audrey2Katrina= 18/8/4 ACE: 160 (Preliminary)

28- Ethaninfinity=19/9/3 ACE: 140 (Preliminary)

29- DEMI-TITAN6=17/8/4 ACE: 149 (Final)

30- vbhoutex=17/6/4 ACE: 172 (Preliminary)

31- Beef Stew=17/8/4 ACE: 148 (Preliminary)

32- Iceresistance=20/8/5 ACE: 200 (Preliminary)

33- jconsor= 16/8/4 ACE: 150 (Final)

34- JetFuel_SE= 18/10/7 ACE: 208 (Final)

35- CyclonicFury= 15/7/3 ACE: 130 (Preliminary)

36- CrazyC83= 17/8/3 ACE:117 (Preliminary)

37- ChrisH-UK= 18/8/3 ACE: 130 (Final)

38- Ulf=18/10/5 ACE: 170 (Preliminary)

39- ScottNAtlanta= 14/8/3 ACE: 125 (Preliminary)

40- JtSmarts= 15/7/4 ACE: 125 (Preliminary)

41- mcheer23= 17/8/4 ACE: 140 (Preliminary)

42- Cebas1029= 19/9/4 ACE: 150 (Preliminary)

43- emeraldislenc= 18/10/4 ACE: 126 (Final)

44- weeniepatrol= 15/8/4 ACE: 135 (Preliminary)

45- Steve= 18/9/5 ACE: 171 (Final)

46- Kennethb=16/8/4 ACE: 134 (Final)

47- eastcoastFL= 13/7/4 ACE: 112 (Final)

48- Stormybajan= 15/7/3 ACE: 118 (Preliminary)

49-

50-

[Sciencerocks]

16/8/3, 154 ACE..Preliminary

[Category5Kaiju]

My preliminary guess is 18/8/4 with 145 ACE. A season that, activity-wise, is fairly similar to 2019, 2021, and 2023.

Barring a bizarre extratropical warm-up like we saw in 2022 and 2024, I think the subtropics being warm may allow for some more weak, junk spin-ups, which may give us a rather high NS count. I notice that there's some talk about the MDR potentially seeing some stability issues due to the warmer subtropics this time around, but I don't think that will be enough to completely quash the potential for a strong MDR storm or two. In terms of hurricane/major hurricane activity, I think we will see slightly higher than average values for such.

In terms of impacts, I think this might be a season where we get 1-3 big storms that get their names retired, as opposed to a 2005/2017/2024-like barrage of destruction or a 2006/2009/2014/2023 no-names-retired deal. I think that somewhere along the Gulf Coast of the CONUS is the primary at-risk region.

In terms of seasonal timeline, I think June and July will be very usual, with several weak storms (I don't think we're going to see anything like Beryl this time around). Most of the activity will happen late-August to early-October, with the likely -ENSO state permitting some sopradic activity into late October/early-November. I think the strongest storm of the season will be a solid Category 5 with a minimum pressure in the 900s range.

Regarding names (cuz why not), I think 2025 will continue 2024's trend of axing OG names, and barring any destructive early-season storms, I think we will at least see one name of the following names get retired: Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, and Karen.

[Teban54]

Preliminary: 15/6/3, 130 ACE

[CFLHurricane]

14/6/2 ACE 110 (Final)

[cheezyWXguy]

15/7/4 - 135 ACE

[KirbyDude25]

Preliminary: 18/8/3, 135 ACE

Like others have mentioned, the warm subtropics will likely lead to several weak storms briefly spinning up. The MDR isn't boiling anymore, but it's still warmer than average, so we'll probably get a long-tracker or two. A subtropics-focused season hopefully means fewer land impacts, but at this early stage we can only hope. I'll probably submit my final prediction on or near May 1st.

[Tireman4]

19/10/4

[Hurricane2022]

17/7/2 ACE 125
Preliminary

[cycloneye]

Have to mention that it takes a few minutes to update the graphics, but eventually they will show up the latest as the members post their set of numbers. Many thanks to USTropics for providing me the graphics for the members to see what is going on with the numbers.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, is time to sleep, so if any member posts numbers overnight, will update in the morning.

[TomballEd]

Too early to post but hoping ECMWF long range predictions of a slightly below average to average season with slightly below normal hurricanes verifies.

Lets see what CSU posts in April and long range models are suggesting in May.

[AnnularCane]

16/7/3 - Preliminary

[StPeteMike]

Preliminary: 18/10/5

[Old-TimeCane]

17/9/4 ACE 148 (Preliminary)

[StormWeather]

17-8-5 (ACE around 170) (Preliminary)

[StPeteMike]

Preliminary: 18/10/5

Forgot Ace!

170

[cycloneye]

Preliminary: 18/10/5

Forgot Ace!

170

Done.

[chaser1]

My gut says 14/6/2 with 1-2 names being retired but for now will lean toward this being "preliminary" given a possibility of an increase in forecast named storms & hurricanes. I think the deadliest storm will be the "H, I, or J" name (no shocker there) and will strike Southern/Eastern Cuba during the first 10 days of Sept. I think this season will be a primarily "west" Atlantic based season; In spite of this, I expect most storm tracks to recurve east of the Bahamas & U.S. I think the worst impact will occur to the south coast of Cuba (as previously stated) with potential serious impact to Puerto Rico and the U.S. mid-Atlantic (as a primary result of precipitation and flooding). I think "impactful" named storms will also have serious precipitation impact to Southern Texas (early & late season) and Southern Florida during early October to primarily wrap up the season by the middle of that month.

[galaxy401]

I'll go with 16/7/4 for the preliminary. I'll update it in May and provide my ACE prediction then too.