99S INVEST 250306 1200 12.8S 56.8E SHEM 15 0
SIO: JUDE - Post-Tropical
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SIO: JUDE - Post-Tropical
Last edited by Subtrop on Sat Mar 08, 2025 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 99S
System Information: DISRUPTED ZONE 12-20242025
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1006 hPa.
Position on March 6 at 4 p.m. local time: 12.2 South / 57.3 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 985 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1330 km to sector: EAST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.
Key messages:
The disturbed area 12-20242025 located off the northeast coast of Madagascar is moving eastward at a speed of 25 km/h. Its convection is still poorly organized and its intensification is rather slow.
It is expected to land on the east coast of Madagascar as a moderate tropical storm on the night of Friday to Saturday, in the province of Antsiranana near the town of Sambava. After crossing Madagascar, it should re-enter the Mozambique Channel on Saturday and continue its route westward, passing south of Mayotte and the Comoros archipelago. Then it should turn southwest on Monday and pass not far from the coast of Mozambique on Tuesday.
- Concerning Madagascar, heavy rains are expected to affect the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina from Friday. They will be locally very heavy on the reliefs. Strong winds and dangerous sea conditions could also affect these two provinces from Friday evening. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- concerning Mayotte, this system should circulate to the south of the island during the day on Sunday. It will then be in the reorganization phase following its passage over Madagascar. The closest passage distance remains to be specified but, according to current forecasts, it should be sufficient so that the strongest winds do not affect the island. A rainy and stormy deterioration of the weather is nevertheless expected between Saturday evening and Monday in connection with the passage of the peripheral bands associated with this system. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts over the coming days.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1006 hPa.
Position on March 6 at 4 p.m. local time: 12.2 South / 57.3 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 985 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1330 km to sector: EAST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.
Key messages:
The disturbed area 12-20242025 located off the northeast coast of Madagascar is moving eastward at a speed of 25 km/h. Its convection is still poorly organized and its intensification is rather slow.
It is expected to land on the east coast of Madagascar as a moderate tropical storm on the night of Friday to Saturday, in the province of Antsiranana near the town of Sambava. After crossing Madagascar, it should re-enter the Mozambique Channel on Saturday and continue its route westward, passing south of Mayotte and the Comoros archipelago. Then it should turn southwest on Monday and pass not far from the coast of Mozambique on Tuesday.
- Concerning Madagascar, heavy rains are expected to affect the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina from Friday. They will be locally very heavy on the reliefs. Strong winds and dangerous sea conditions could also affect these two provinces from Friday evening. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- concerning Mayotte, this system should circulate to the south of the island during the day on Sunday. It will then be in the reorganization phase following its passage over Madagascar. The closest passage distance remains to be specified but, according to current forecasts, it should be sufficient so that the strongest winds do not affect the island. A rainy and stormy deterioration of the weather is nevertheless expected between Saturday evening and Monday in connection with the passage of the peripheral bands associated with this system. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts over the coming days.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: 12 - Tropical Depression
System Information: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12-20242025
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1000 hPa.
Position on March 7 at 10 p.m. local time: 13.6 South / 50.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 950 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 610 km to sector: EAST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 33 km/h.
Key messages:
- System 12-20242025 is heading towards Madagascar on a west-southwest trajectory. Its convection has improved and the circulation is better defined, which allows it to be classified as a tropical depression.
- It is expected to land on the east coast of Madagascar at the stage of moderate tropical storm (or at a slightly lesser intensity without being named) tonight, in the province of Antsiranana between the towns of Sambava and Vohemar.
- After crossing Madagascar, the system should re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel on Saturday and continue its route towards the west-southwest, passing south of Mayotte and the Comoros archipelago, then reach the coast of Mozambique by Monday during the day.
- Concerning Madagascar, heavy rains are currently affecting the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina. They will be locally very heavy on the reliefs. Strong winds and dangerous sea conditions could also affect these two provinces from this evening. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- Concerning Mayotte, this system should circulate to the south of the island during the day on Sunday. It will then be in the reorganization phase following its passage over Madagascar. The closest passage distance should be more than 150km to the south, leaving the island away from the strongest winds. A rainy and stormy deterioration of the weather is nevertheless expected from Saturday and until Sunday evening in connection with the passage of the peripheral bands associated with this system. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts over the coming days.
- Concerning Mozambique and mainly the province of Nampula, the system will first bring a dangerous sea state from the night of Sunday to Monday, accompanied by marine submersions. Heavy rains will affect this region from Monday morning. Strong winds will reach the province of Nampula from the night of Sunday to Monday and then intensify to the very destructive threshold close to the impact zone expected Monday during the day, at the level of Ilha de Mocambique.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1000 hPa.
Position on March 7 at 10 p.m. local time: 13.6 South / 50.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 950 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 610 km to sector: EAST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 33 km/h.
Key messages:
- System 12-20242025 is heading towards Madagascar on a west-southwest trajectory. Its convection has improved and the circulation is better defined, which allows it to be classified as a tropical depression.
- It is expected to land on the east coast of Madagascar at the stage of moderate tropical storm (or at a slightly lesser intensity without being named) tonight, in the province of Antsiranana between the towns of Sambava and Vohemar.
- After crossing Madagascar, the system should re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel on Saturday and continue its route towards the west-southwest, passing south of Mayotte and the Comoros archipelago, then reach the coast of Mozambique by Monday during the day.
- Concerning Madagascar, heavy rains are currently affecting the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina. They will be locally very heavy on the reliefs. Strong winds and dangerous sea conditions could also affect these two provinces from this evening. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- Concerning Mayotte, this system should circulate to the south of the island during the day on Sunday. It will then be in the reorganization phase following its passage over Madagascar. The closest passage distance should be more than 150km to the south, leaving the island away from the strongest winds. A rainy and stormy deterioration of the weather is nevertheless expected from Saturday and until Sunday evening in connection with the passage of the peripheral bands associated with this system. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts over the coming days.
- Concerning Mozambique and mainly the province of Nampula, the system will first bring a dangerous sea state from the night of Sunday to Monday, accompanied by marine submersions. Heavy rains will affect this region from Monday morning. Strong winds will reach the province of Nampula from the night of Sunday to Monday and then intensify to the very destructive threshold close to the impact zone expected Monday during the day, at the level of Ilha de Mocambique.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: 12 - Tropical Depression
System Information: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12-20242025
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.
Position on March 8 at 10 a.m. local time: 14.2 South / 47.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1110 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 300 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST
Movement: WEST, at 20 km/h.
Key messages:
- System 12-20242025 emerged this morning over the Mozambique Channel, southwest of Nosy Be, after quickly crossing Madagascar.
- Over the next 48 hours, it is expected to continue its path towards the west, passing south of Mayotte and the Comoros archipelago during the night, more than 150km away, before making landfall on the coast of Mozambique, in the province of Nampula on Monday morning at the latest. It could intensify to the stage of tropical cyclone before its landfall.
- Concerning Madagascar, heavy rains are still expected until the end of the weekend in the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina, particularly on the relief. In the province of Mahajanga, the weather has started to deteriorate. Heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous seas are also expected in this region until Monday, particularly on the coast. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- Concerning Mayotte, this system should circulate to the south of the island during the next night at a distance of just over 150 km. Even if the island should stay away from the strongest winds, an episode of heavy rain is expected this weekend. The weather should gradually improve on Monday and especially Tuesday. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts.
- Concerning Mozambique and mainly the province of Nampula, a direct impact of a mature system (strong storm or tropical cyclone) is expected late Sunday night to Monday or Monday morning. Conditions are expected to deteriorate significantly during the day on Sunday with heavy rains, strong to destructive winds expected as well as dangerous seas.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.
Position on March 8 at 10 a.m. local time: 14.2 South / 47.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1110 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 300 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST
Movement: WEST, at 20 km/h.
Key messages:
- System 12-20242025 emerged this morning over the Mozambique Channel, southwest of Nosy Be, after quickly crossing Madagascar.
- Over the next 48 hours, it is expected to continue its path towards the west, passing south of Mayotte and the Comoros archipelago during the night, more than 150km away, before making landfall on the coast of Mozambique, in the province of Nampula on Monday morning at the latest. It could intensify to the stage of tropical cyclone before its landfall.
- Concerning Madagascar, heavy rains are still expected until the end of the weekend in the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina, particularly on the relief. In the province of Mahajanga, the weather has started to deteriorate. Heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous seas are also expected in this region until Monday, particularly on the coast. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- Concerning Mayotte, this system should circulate to the south of the island during the next night at a distance of just over 150 km. Even if the island should stay away from the strongest winds, an episode of heavy rain is expected this weekend. The weather should gradually improve on Monday and especially Tuesday. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts.
- Concerning Mozambique and mainly the province of Nampula, a direct impact of a mature system (strong storm or tropical cyclone) is expected late Sunday night to Monday or Monday morning. Conditions are expected to deteriorate significantly during the day on Sunday with heavy rains, strong to destructive winds expected as well as dangerous seas.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Moderate Tropical Storm
System Information: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 994 hPa.
Position on March 9 at 04:00 local time: 14.6 South / 44.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1325 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 200 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.
Key messages:
- System 12-20242025 was named JUDE by the Malagasy meteorological service at 17UTC. It is now a moderate tropical storm. Since the name comes after that of system 13-20242025 present in the eastern part of the basin, we can note an inversion between the number and the alphabetical order.
- Over the next 48 hours, JUDE is expected to continue its westward trajectory, currently passing south of Mayotte and the Comoros archipelago, before making landfall on the coast of Mozambique, in the province of Nampula on Monday morning at the latest. It could intensify to tropical cyclone status before landfall.
- Concerning Madagascar, heavy rains are still expected until the end of the weekend in the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina, particularly in the mountains, which are no longer directly linked to the system.
- Concerning Madagascar in the province of Mahajanga, heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous seas are still expected in this region until Monday, particularly on the coast. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- Concerning Mayotte, even if the island should stay away from the strongest winds, an episode of heavy rain is expected this weekend, following the passage to the south of the island. The weather should gradually improve on Monday and especially Tuesday. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts.
- Comoros should stay away from strong winds, but thunderstorms are possible until Monday causing heavy rains.
- Concerning Mozambique and mainly the province of Nampula, a direct impact of a mature system (tropical cyclone) is expected late Sunday night to Monday near Ilha de Mocambique. Conditions are currently deteriorating with heavy rains, strong winds will arrive during the day on Sunday. At the time of impact, the winds will reach the very probable threshold of very destructive close to the impact zone. The sea will be dangerous with risk of marine submersion close to the impact zone.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 994 hPa.
Position on March 9 at 04:00 local time: 14.6 South / 44.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1325 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 200 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.
Key messages:
- System 12-20242025 was named JUDE by the Malagasy meteorological service at 17UTC. It is now a moderate tropical storm. Since the name comes after that of system 13-20242025 present in the eastern part of the basin, we can note an inversion between the number and the alphabetical order.
- Over the next 48 hours, JUDE is expected to continue its westward trajectory, currently passing south of Mayotte and the Comoros archipelago, before making landfall on the coast of Mozambique, in the province of Nampula on Monday morning at the latest. It could intensify to tropical cyclone status before landfall.
- Concerning Madagascar, heavy rains are still expected until the end of the weekend in the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina, particularly in the mountains, which are no longer directly linked to the system.
- Concerning Madagascar in the province of Mahajanga, heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous seas are still expected in this region until Monday, particularly on the coast. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- Concerning Mayotte, even if the island should stay away from the strongest winds, an episode of heavy rain is expected this weekend, following the passage to the south of the island. The weather should gradually improve on Monday and especially Tuesday. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts.
- Comoros should stay away from strong winds, but thunderstorms are possible until Monday causing heavy rains.
- Concerning Mozambique and mainly the province of Nampula, a direct impact of a mature system (tropical cyclone) is expected late Sunday night to Monday near Ilha de Mocambique. Conditions are currently deteriorating with heavy rains, strong winds will arrive during the day on Sunday. At the time of impact, the winds will reach the very probable threshold of very destructive close to the impact zone. The sea will be dangerous with risk of marine submersion close to the impact zone.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Moderate Tropical Storm
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Moderate Tropical Storm
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Severe Tropical Storm
System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 990 hPa.
Position on March 9 at 4 p.m. local time: 15.1 South / 42.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1500 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 380 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 22 km/h.
Key messages:
- Over the next 12 hours, JUDE is expected to continue its west-southwestward path before making landfall on the coast of Mozambique in Nampula province on Monday morning. It is expected to intensify to a tropical cyclone before landfall.
- Concerning Madagascar in the province of Mahajanga, heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous seas are still expected in this region until Monday, particularly on the coast. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- Concerning Mayotte, even if the island remains away from the strongest winds, an episode of heavy rain is underway, with the presence of the system to the southwest of the island. The weather should gradually improve on Monday and especially Tuesday. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts.
- The Comoros remain away from strong winds, but stormy passages are possible until Monday causing heavy rains.
- Concerning Mozambique and mainly the province of Nampula, a direct impact of a mature system (tropical cyclone) is expected late Sunday night to Monday near Ilha de Mocambique. Conditions are currently deteriorating with heavy rains, strong winds will arrive during the day on Sunday. At the time of impact, the winds will reach the very probable threshold of very destructive close to the impact zone. The sea will be dangerous with risk of marine submersion close to the impact zone.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 990 hPa.
Position on March 9 at 4 p.m. local time: 15.1 South / 42.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1500 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 380 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 22 km/h.
Key messages:
- Over the next 12 hours, JUDE is expected to continue its west-southwestward path before making landfall on the coast of Mozambique in Nampula province on Monday morning. It is expected to intensify to a tropical cyclone before landfall.
- Concerning Madagascar in the province of Mahajanga, heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous seas are still expected in this region until Monday, particularly on the coast. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.
- Concerning Mayotte, even if the island remains away from the strongest winds, an episode of heavy rain is underway, with the presence of the system to the southwest of the island. The weather should gradually improve on Monday and especially Tuesday. The population is invited to keep informed of the evolution of the forecasts.
- The Comoros remain away from strong winds, but stormy passages are possible until Monday causing heavy rains.
- Concerning Mozambique and mainly the province of Nampula, a direct impact of a mature system (tropical cyclone) is expected late Sunday night to Monday near Ilha de Mocambique. Conditions are currently deteriorating with heavy rains, strong winds will arrive during the day on Sunday. At the time of impact, the winds will reach the very probable threshold of very destructive close to the impact zone. The sea will be dangerous with risk of marine submersion close to the impact zone.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Tropical Cyclone
System Information: TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 140 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 195 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 970 hPa.
Position on March 9 at 10 p.m. local time: 15.0 South / 41.2 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1630 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 490 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.
Key messages:
- Tonight, JUDE intensified into a tropical cyclone as it moved closer to the Mozambican coast. It is now less than 50km from Ilha de Moçambique and is expected to make landfall in the immediate vicinity of that city in the coming hours.
- Concerning Mayotte, Madagascar, and the Comoros, conditions will slowly improve between now and tomorrow Monday with stormy passages still possible, particularly in the westernmost territories.
- The province of Nampula in Mozambique will therefore experience a direct impact from a very dangerous system (tropical cyclone) tonight. Conditions will continue to deteriorate in the coming hours with very heavy rains, destructive to devastating winds and dangerous seas.
- The neighboring provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Zambezia will also be affected, to a lesser extent. Heavy rains are expected from tonight. These degraded conditions could last until midweek.
- Over the next few days, JUDE is expected to weaken as it moves close to the Mozambique-Malawi border. The system is expected to re-emerge over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday or Thursday. It could then experience a new phase of intensification as it moves southwest of Madagascar.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 140 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 195 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 970 hPa.
Position on March 9 at 10 p.m. local time: 15.0 South / 41.2 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1630 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 490 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.
Key messages:
- Tonight, JUDE intensified into a tropical cyclone as it moved closer to the Mozambican coast. It is now less than 50km from Ilha de Moçambique and is expected to make landfall in the immediate vicinity of that city in the coming hours.
- Concerning Mayotte, Madagascar, and the Comoros, conditions will slowly improve between now and tomorrow Monday with stormy passages still possible, particularly in the westernmost territories.
- The province of Nampula in Mozambique will therefore experience a direct impact from a very dangerous system (tropical cyclone) tonight. Conditions will continue to deteriorate in the coming hours with very heavy rains, destructive to devastating winds and dangerous seas.
- The neighboring provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Zambezia will also be affected, to a lesser extent. Heavy rains are expected from tonight. These degraded conditions could last until midweek.
- Over the next few days, JUDE is expected to weaken as it moves close to the Mozambique-Malawi border. The system is expected to re-emerge over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday or Thursday. It could then experience a new phase of intensification as it moves southwest of Madagascar.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Tropical Cyclone
System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 983 hPa.
Position on March 10 at 10 a.m. local time: 15.1 South / 39.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1760 km in the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 630 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST, at 17 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE landed early this morning in the province of Nampula (near Ilha de Moçambique) at the Tropical Cyclone stage.
- The province of Nampula is suffering the direct impact of a very dangerous system generating very degraded conditions with very heavy rains, destructive winds and dangerous seas.
- The neighbouring provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Zambezia are also affected, to a lesser extent, with weather conditioned by the circulation of peripheral rain bands causing heavy rain. These degraded conditions could last until mid-week and affect a large northern half of Mozambique as well as Malawi.
- Over the next few days, JUDE is expected to weaken as it transits over land, and is expected to move close to the Mozambique-Malawi border.
- The system is expected to re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel by Wednesday or Thursday. It could then experience a resurgence with a new phase of intensification, while heading southwest towards Madagascar.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 983 hPa.
Position on March 10 at 10 a.m. local time: 15.1 South / 39.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1760 km in the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 630 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST, at 17 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE landed early this morning in the province of Nampula (near Ilha de Moçambique) at the Tropical Cyclone stage.
- The province of Nampula is suffering the direct impact of a very dangerous system generating very degraded conditions with very heavy rains, destructive winds and dangerous seas.
- The neighbouring provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Zambezia are also affected, to a lesser extent, with weather conditioned by the circulation of peripheral rain bands causing heavy rain. These degraded conditions could last until mid-week and affect a large northern half of Mozambique as well as Malawi.
- Over the next few days, JUDE is expected to weaken as it transits over land, and is expected to move close to the Mozambique-Malawi border.
- The system is expected to re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel by Wednesday or Thursday. It could then experience a resurgence with a new phase of intensification, while heading southwest towards Madagascar.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Depression on Earth
DEPRESSION ON EARTH JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 995 hPa.
Position on March 10 at 10 p.m. local time Reunion: 14.6 South / 37.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1965 km in the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 810 km in the WEST-SOUTH-WEST sector
Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE is now a depression over land. The system has begun to weaken over land in Mozambique since its landfall late last night.
- The coasts of Mozambique (and in particular the provinces of Nampula and Zambezia) are currently experiencing degraded conditions with very heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous seas.
- The neighboring provinces of Cabo Delgado and Niassa are also affected, to a lesser extent, with weather conditioned by the circulation of peripheral rain bands causing heavy rain. These degraded conditions could last until mid-week and affect a large northern half of Mozambique as well as Malawi.
- Over the next few days, JUDE is expected to continue weakening as it transits over land, and is expected to move close to the southern border of Malawi.
- The system is expected to re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel by Wednesday or Thursday. It could then experience a resurgence with a new phase of intensification, while heading southwest towards Madagascar.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 995 hPa.
Position on March 10 at 10 p.m. local time Reunion: 14.6 South / 37.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1965 km in the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 810 km in the WEST-SOUTH-WEST sector
Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE is now a depression over land. The system has begun to weaken over land in Mozambique since its landfall late last night.
- The coasts of Mozambique (and in particular the provinces of Nampula and Zambezia) are currently experiencing degraded conditions with very heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous seas.
- The neighboring provinces of Cabo Delgado and Niassa are also affected, to a lesser extent, with weather conditioned by the circulation of peripheral rain bands causing heavy rain. These degraded conditions could last until mid-week and affect a large northern half of Mozambique as well as Malawi.
- Over the next few days, JUDE is expected to continue weakening as it transits over land, and is expected to move close to the southern border of Malawi.
- The system is expected to re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel by Wednesday or Thursday. It could then experience a resurgence with a new phase of intensification, while heading southwest towards Madagascar.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Depression on Earth
System Information: DEPRESSION ON EARTH JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.
Position on March 11 at 10 a.m. local time: 15.4 South / 36.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 2080 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 980 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE is still a depression over land. The system continues to weaken over land in Mozambique since its landfall.
- The system is expected to transit over southern Malawi tomorrow morning, before turning eastward to re-emerge over the Channel probably during the day on Thursday. It is expected to re-intensify over the Channel and could reach tropical storm status again before making landfall over Madagascar early this weekend.
- Despite its weakening, JUDE continues to generate heavy rains over Mozambique, particularly in the provinces of Nampula, Zambezia and the northern coast of Cabo Delgado. These heavy rains are expected to gradually shift to the provinces of Niassa and southern Malawi tonight, and then to Sofala and Manica province tomorrow.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.
Position on March 11 at 10 a.m. local time: 15.4 South / 36.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 2080 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 980 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE is still a depression over land. The system continues to weaken over land in Mozambique since its landfall.
- The system is expected to transit over southern Malawi tomorrow morning, before turning eastward to re-emerge over the Channel probably during the day on Thursday. It is expected to re-intensify over the Channel and could reach tropical storm status again before making landfall over Madagascar early this weekend.
- Despite its weakening, JUDE continues to generate heavy rains over Mozambique, particularly in the provinces of Nampula, Zambezia and the northern coast of Cabo Delgado. These heavy rains are expected to gradually shift to the provinces of Niassa and southern Malawi tonight, and then to Sofala and Manica province tomorrow.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Depression on Earth
System Information: DEPRESSION ON EARTH JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1004 hPa.
Position on March 12 at 10 a.m. local time: 16.8 South / 34.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 2235 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1230 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: Quasi-stationary.
Key messages:
- JUDE is operating this morning on Malawi's southern border with Mozambique at a weakened stage, with no significant movement.
- JUDE is expected to begin moving southeastward toward the coast in the coming hours. It is expected to re-emerge over the sea during the night. On Thursday and Friday, as it approaches southwest Madagascar, JUDE could intensify again. This weekend, JUDE is expected to weaken and then lose its tropical characteristics as it crosses the large island.
- JUDE continues to generate heavy rains over southern Malawi and central Mozambique, particularly along the coasts of Zambezia and Sofala provinces, as well as locally strong winds. Conditions are expected to improve tonight as the system clears.
- A deterioration in the weather in Madagascar, particularly in the province of Toliara, is expected from Friday, with very heavy rains, as well as strong winds and dangerous seas.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1004 hPa.
Position on March 12 at 10 a.m. local time: 16.8 South / 34.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 2235 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1230 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: Quasi-stationary.
Key messages:
- JUDE is operating this morning on Malawi's southern border with Mozambique at a weakened stage, with no significant movement.
- JUDE is expected to begin moving southeastward toward the coast in the coming hours. It is expected to re-emerge over the sea during the night. On Thursday and Friday, as it approaches southwest Madagascar, JUDE could intensify again. This weekend, JUDE is expected to weaken and then lose its tropical characteristics as it crosses the large island.
- JUDE continues to generate heavy rains over southern Malawi and central Mozambique, particularly along the coasts of Zambezia and Sofala provinces, as well as locally strong winds. Conditions are expected to improve tonight as the system clears.
- A deterioration in the weather in Madagascar, particularly in the province of Toliara, is expected from Friday, with very heavy rains, as well as strong winds and dangerous seas.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE -Tropical Depression
System Information: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.
Position on March 13 at 4 a.m. local time: 19.2 South / 36.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1940 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1140 km to the sector: SOUTHWEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 22 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE appears to have re-emerged at sea near the mouth of the Zambezi River around 2230Z. It is still moving southeastward with marked convective activity at sea.
- JUDE is expected to continue moving southeastward over the next 48 hours and gradually strengthen into a moderate tropical storm. It is expected to make landfall on the Big Island in the province of Tulear during the night of Friday to Saturday. It could then re-emerge to the east, losing its tropical characteristics as it passes over Madagascar.
- Heavy rains associated with JUDE over Mozambique have eased and are currently mainly at sea. Conditions are gradually improving.
- A deterioration in the weather in Madagascar, particularly in the province of Tulear, is expected from Friday, with very heavy rains, as well as strong winds and dangerous seas.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.
Position on March 13 at 4 a.m. local time: 19.2 South / 36.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1940 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1140 km to the sector: SOUTHWEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 22 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE appears to have re-emerged at sea near the mouth of the Zambezi River around 2230Z. It is still moving southeastward with marked convective activity at sea.
- JUDE is expected to continue moving southeastward over the next 48 hours and gradually strengthen into a moderate tropical storm. It is expected to make landfall on the Big Island in the province of Tulear during the night of Friday to Saturday. It could then re-emerge to the east, losing its tropical characteristics as it passes over Madagascar.
- Heavy rains associated with JUDE over Mozambique have eased and are currently mainly at sea. Conditions are gradually improving.
- A deterioration in the weather in Madagascar, particularly in the province of Tulear, is expected from Friday, with very heavy rains, as well as strong winds and dangerous seas.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Moderate Tropical Storm
System Information: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 997 hPa.
Position on March 13 at 10 a.m. local time: 19.9 South / 37.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1825 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1110 km to the sector: SOUTHWEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 24 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE emerged from the Mozambique Channel near the mouth of the Zambezi River last night. It intensified into a moderate tropical storm this Thursday morning as it moved southeastward, with associated thunderstorm activity remaining very intense southeast of the system's center.
- JUDE is expected to continue moving southeastward over the next 36 to 48 hours, gradually strengthening to become a severe tropical storm just before making landfall between Friday evening and the following night in the southwest of Madagascar near the province of Toliara. It is then expected to re-emerge southeast of the Big Island starting Saturday evening, gradually losing its tropical characteristics.
- A worsening of the weather is expected in the southwest and south of Madagascar, particularly in the province of Toliara, starting Friday and over the weekend, with very heavy rains, strong and sometimes locally destructive winds, and dangerous sea conditions. Residents are encouraged to monitor the forecast through the Malagasy National Meteorological Service.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 997 hPa.
Position on March 13 at 10 a.m. local time: 19.9 South / 37.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1825 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1110 km to the sector: SOUTHWEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 24 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE emerged from the Mozambique Channel near the mouth of the Zambezi River last night. It intensified into a moderate tropical storm this Thursday morning as it moved southeastward, with associated thunderstorm activity remaining very intense southeast of the system's center.
- JUDE is expected to continue moving southeastward over the next 36 to 48 hours, gradually strengthening to become a severe tropical storm just before making landfall between Friday evening and the following night in the southwest of Madagascar near the province of Toliara. It is then expected to re-emerge southeast of the Big Island starting Saturday evening, gradually losing its tropical characteristics.
- A worsening of the weather is expected in the southwest and south of Madagascar, particularly in the province of Toliara, starting Friday and over the weekend, with very heavy rains, strong and sometimes locally destructive winds, and dangerous sea conditions. Residents are encouraged to monitor the forecast through the Malagasy National Meteorological Service.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Severe Tropical Storm
System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 985 hPa.
Position on March 14 at 10 a.m. local time: 23.2 South / 41.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1445 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1220 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 20 km/h.
Key messages:
- Jude continues to intensify as it approaches the southwest coast of Madagascar on an east-southeastward trajectory.
- It is expected to make landfall in the night from Friday to Saturday in the southwest of Madagascar, in the Toliara region. It is then expected to re-emerge to the southeast of the Big Island during the day on Saturday, quickly losing its tropical characteristics.
- Indirectly linked to Jude, rains are currently affecting the north of the province of Toliara and the south of the province of Mahajanga.
- Directly linked to Jude, a progressive deterioration of the weather is expected in the coming hours, in the southwest and south of Madagascar, particularly the south of the province of Toliara. Until Saturday, very heavy rains, strong to destructive winds as well as dangerous seas accompanied by marine submersion are expected. Very destructive winds are expected near the impact zone. Residents are encouraged to follow the evolution of the forecast through the Malagasy national meteorological service.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 985 hPa.
Position on March 14 at 10 a.m. local time: 23.2 South / 41.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1445 km to the sector: WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1220 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 20 km/h.
Key messages:
- Jude continues to intensify as it approaches the southwest coast of Madagascar on an east-southeastward trajectory.
- It is expected to make landfall in the night from Friday to Saturday in the southwest of Madagascar, in the Toliara region. It is then expected to re-emerge to the southeast of the Big Island during the day on Saturday, quickly losing its tropical characteristics.
- Indirectly linked to Jude, rains are currently affecting the north of the province of Toliara and the south of the province of Mahajanga.
- Directly linked to Jude, a progressive deterioration of the weather is expected in the coming hours, in the southwest and south of Madagascar, particularly the south of the province of Toliara. Until Saturday, very heavy rains, strong to destructive winds as well as dangerous seas accompanied by marine submersion are expected. Very destructive winds are expected near the impact zone. Residents are encouraged to follow the evolution of the forecast through the Malagasy national meteorological service.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Strong Tropical Storm
System Information: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 983 hPa.
Position on March 15 at 10 a.m. local time: 24.7 South / 44.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1165 km in the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1320 km to the sector: SOUTH
Travel: EAST, at 17 km/h.
Key messages:
- Strong tropical storm JUDE made landfall this morning in southwest Madagascar, south of Toliara province, with its center located at 9 a.m. local time (Malagasy time) about 110 km northwest of Cap Sainte-Marie and just over 170 km southeast of the city of Toliara (Tuléar).
- The deteriorating weather associated with JUDE will continue in the coming hours in the southern part of Toliara province. Until Saturday evening, very heavy rains and strong to destructive winds are expected near the impact zone, mainly in the south of Toliara province. Note that with JUDE's asymmetric structure, the strongest winds and most intense rains associated with the system will occur mainly at sea and in the immediate vicinity of the coast. In addition, dangerous sea conditions are expected until Monday. Residents are encouraged to monitor the evolution of the forecast through the Malagasy national meteorological service.
- After a relatively brief journey over the southern lands of Madagascar, the storm is expected to emerge slightly weakened southeast of the Big Island during the afternoon or evening of Saturday while beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. The system will then evolve into a post-tropical and then extratropical depression between Saturday evening and Sunday, while maintaining strong winds, but without threatening other lands and remaining well away south of the Mascarene Islands.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 983 hPa.
Position on March 15 at 10 a.m. local time: 24.7 South / 44.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1165 km in the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1320 km to the sector: SOUTH
Travel: EAST, at 17 km/h.
Key messages:
- Strong tropical storm JUDE made landfall this morning in southwest Madagascar, south of Toliara province, with its center located at 9 a.m. local time (Malagasy time) about 110 km northwest of Cap Sainte-Marie and just over 170 km southeast of the city of Toliara (Tuléar).
- The deteriorating weather associated with JUDE will continue in the coming hours in the southern part of Toliara province. Until Saturday evening, very heavy rains and strong to destructive winds are expected near the impact zone, mainly in the south of Toliara province. Note that with JUDE's asymmetric structure, the strongest winds and most intense rains associated with the system will occur mainly at sea and in the immediate vicinity of the coast. In addition, dangerous sea conditions are expected until Monday. Residents are encouraged to monitor the evolution of the forecast through the Malagasy national meteorological service.
- After a relatively brief journey over the southern lands of Madagascar, the storm is expected to emerge slightly weakened southeast of the Big Island during the afternoon or evening of Saturday while beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. The system will then evolve into a post-tropical and then extratropical depression between Saturday evening and Sunday, while maintaining strong winds, but without threatening other lands and remaining well away south of the Mascarene Islands.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Moderate Tropical Storm
System Information: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM JUDE
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 985 hPa.
Position on March 15 at 4 p.m. local time: 24.6 South / 46.1 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1010 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1310 km to the sector: SOUTH
Travel: EAST, at 22 km/h.
Key messages:
- Moderate tropical storm JUDE is currently located in the southeast of the province of Toliara (Tuléar) with a center located at 4 p.m. local time (Malagasy time) approximately 150 km northeast of Cap Sainte-Marie
- The deteriorating weather associated with JUDE will continue in the coming hours in the southern part of Toliara province. Until Saturday evening, very heavy rains and strong to destructive winds are expected near the impact zone, mainly in the south of Toliara province. Note that with JUDE's asymmetric structure, the strongest winds and most intense rains associated with the system will occur mainly at sea and in the immediate vicinity of the coast. In addition, dangerous sea conditions are expected until Monday. Residents are encouraged to monitor the evolution of the forecast through the Malagasy national meteorological service.
- After a relatively brief journey over the southern lands of Madagascar, the storm is expected to emerge slightly weakened southeast of the Big Island during the evening while beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. The system will then evolve into a post-tropical and then extratropical depression between Saturday evening and Sunday, while maintaining strong winds, but without threatening other lands and remaining well away south of the Mascarene Islands.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 985 hPa.
Position on March 15 at 4 p.m. local time: 24.6 South / 46.1 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1010 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1310 km to the sector: SOUTH
Travel: EAST, at 22 km/h.
Key messages:
- Moderate tropical storm JUDE is currently located in the southeast of the province of Toliara (Tuléar) with a center located at 4 p.m. local time (Malagasy time) approximately 150 km northeast of Cap Sainte-Marie
- The deteriorating weather associated with JUDE will continue in the coming hours in the southern part of Toliara province. Until Saturday evening, very heavy rains and strong to destructive winds are expected near the impact zone, mainly in the south of Toliara province. Note that with JUDE's asymmetric structure, the strongest winds and most intense rains associated with the system will occur mainly at sea and in the immediate vicinity of the coast. In addition, dangerous sea conditions are expected until Monday. Residents are encouraged to monitor the evolution of the forecast through the Malagasy national meteorological service.
- After a relatively brief journey over the southern lands of Madagascar, the storm is expected to emerge slightly weakened southeast of the Big Island during the evening while beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. The system will then evolve into a post-tropical and then extratropical depression between Saturday evening and Sunday, while maintaining strong winds, but without threatening other lands and remaining well away south of the Mascarene Islands.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: JUDE - Post-Tropical
Bye.
System Information: JUDE POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 980 hPa.
Position on March 16 at 4 a.m. local time: 26.0 South / 51.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 635 km to the sector: SOUTHWEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1630 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST
Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 56 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE's wind pattern is lengthening, indicating a rapid loss of its tropical characteristics. JUDE is classified as a post-tropical depression as it moves rapidly.
- In the Malagasy province of Toliaria, the deteriorating weather associated with JUDE will continue with dangerous sea conditions until Monday. Residents are encouraged to monitor the forecast through the Malagasy National Meteorological Service.
- Subsequently, the system will evolve into an extratropical depression during the day on Sunday, while maintaining strong winds in the southern sector, but without threatening other lands and remaining far south of the Mascarenes.
- Due to its loss of tropical characteristics, the system is no longer monitored by the RSMC of Réunion. This therefore defines the last bulletin on this system.
System Information: JUDE POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 980 hPa.
Position on March 16 at 4 a.m. local time: 26.0 South / 51.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 635 km to the sector: SOUTHWEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1630 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST
Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 56 km/h.
Key messages:
- JUDE's wind pattern is lengthening, indicating a rapid loss of its tropical characteristics. JUDE is classified as a post-tropical depression as it moves rapidly.
- In the Malagasy province of Toliaria, the deteriorating weather associated with JUDE will continue with dangerous sea conditions until Monday. Residents are encouraged to monitor the forecast through the Malagasy National Meteorological Service.
- Subsequently, the system will evolve into an extratropical depression during the day on Sunday, while maintaining strong winds in the southern sector, but without threatening other lands and remaining far south of the Mascarenes.
- Due to its loss of tropical characteristics, the system is no longer monitored by the RSMC of Réunion. This therefore defines the last bulletin on this system.
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