Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR...
...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the
Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which
could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90
mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible.
...Synopsis...
Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand
MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the
Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater
uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind
potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential
persists.
...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys...
A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High
Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening
of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the
Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is
expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of
a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central
States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support
downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense
700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This
should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO
Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with
semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the
convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime,
embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a
QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater
with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level
moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to
weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area
as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But
some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across
the Lower OH Valley.
...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep
convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly
low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward
across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings
indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles,
conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral
to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong
low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley
overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is
likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection
during the evening and overnight.
A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the
Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging
wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more
conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys.
..Grams.. 03/13/2025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR...
...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the
Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which
could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90
mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible.
...Synopsis...
Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand
MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the
Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater
uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind
potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential
persists.
...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys...
A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High
Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening
of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the
Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is
expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of
a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central
States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support
downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense
700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This
should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO
Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with
semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the
convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime,
embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a
QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater
with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level
moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to
weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area
as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But
some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across
the Lower OH Valley.
...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep
convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly
low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward
across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings
indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles,
conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral
to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong
low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley
overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is
likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection
during the evening and overnight.
A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the
Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging
wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more
conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys.
..Grams.. 03/13/2025
I mean it basically showed 4/27/11 again
