2025 Severe Weather

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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#101 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 15, 2025 4:44 pm

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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#102 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Mar 15, 2025 4:45 pm

That might be the biggest debris ball of the day so far near Gordo, AL. TOR-E worthy
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#103 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Mar 15, 2025 4:58 pm

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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#104 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 15, 2025 5:31 pm

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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#105 Postby Bunkertor » Sat Mar 15, 2025 6:19 pm

Parameters are in decline. Seems, it is over with
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#106 Postby Brent » Sat Mar 15, 2025 6:42 pm

We got very lucky today no doubt
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#107 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 15, 2025 7:11 pm

Did the event met the expectations based on the high risk issued or not?
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather

#108 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 15, 2025 7:50 pm

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Re: 2025 Severe Weather

#109 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 15, 2025 8:20 pm

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Re: 2025 Severe Weather

#110 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 15, 2025 8:50 pm

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Re: 2025 Severe Weather

#111 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 15, 2025 8:53 pm

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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#112 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Mar 15, 2025 9:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:Did the event met the expectations based on the high risk issued or not?

I would say overall the high risk verified, especially in southern MS. Several intense/potentially violent tornadoes throughout the day. But it wasn't as bad as it could have been. Still though last night through today will likely be one of the biggest outbreaks of the year.

Edit: And we're still not done yet either. Another huge CC drop :double: Also a discrete cell to its south with a strong meso. Could be dangerous as well
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather

#113 Postby 869MB » Sat Mar 15, 2025 9:35 pm

Northern portions of Florida, especially areas west/southwest of Jacksonville, will still be in play for the possibility of a strong tornado or two during the late morning/early afternoon hours between 9AM and 2 PM based upon the latest HRRR 00Z sounding profiles.
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather

#114 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Mar 15, 2025 11:11 pm

Two more likely sigtors in AL currently. They just don't stop coming
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#115 Postby Brent » Sun Mar 16, 2025 6:18 am

cycloneye wrote:Did the event met the expectations based on the high risk issued or not?


I won't call it a bust and the high risk probably did verify but I think the hype got a little too out of hand. I mean I knew someone at the NWS in Birmingham talking about a career making day I had people talking about it could be worse than 4/27/11 when there were 4 ef5's and 300 people died. There was someone on Facebook apparently talking about people having a percentage to die... Like it was crazy how far the hype went. I feel like we got very lucky given the dynamics this had

I mean I'm very glad it wasn't a repeat given what has happened over there before(4/27 still bothers me and I left 11 years ago) and my parents still had a way too close call after dark tonight(that seems to be a trend the last few years no matter what else) but still I hope people don't get complacent because this wasn't that bad overall considering. Like the places where most people live Huntsville and Birmingham and Atlanta didn't even have anything remotely noteworthy is the thing I've already read. Far too many people already don't trust the mets
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather

#116 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 16, 2025 7:52 am

So far 66 tornadoes on this outbreak.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1901247050269999598


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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#117 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Mar 16, 2025 12:19 pm

Brent wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Did the event met the expectations based on the high risk issued or not?


I won't call it a bust and the high risk probably did verify but I think the hype got a little too out of hand. I mean I knew someone at the NWS in Birmingham talking about a career making day I had people talking about it could be worse than 4/27/11 when there were 4 ef5's and 300 people died. There was someone on Facebook apparently talking about people having a percentage to die... Like it was crazy how far the hype went. I feel like we got very lucky given the dynamics this had

I mean I'm very glad it wasn't a repeat given what has happened over there before(4/27 still bothers me and I left 11 years ago) and my parents still had a way too close call after dark tonight(that seems to be a trend the last few years no matter what else) but still I hope people don't get complacent because this wasn't that bad overall considering. Like the places where most people live Huntsville and Birmingham and Atlanta didn't even have anything remotely noteworthy is the thing I've already read. Far too many people already don't trust the mets

Yeah it seemed pretty clear looking at model runs yesterday morning that the highest-end scenario wasn't going to end up playing out, and thats probably why the SPC kept it at 30# instead of adding a 45. Honestly I'm impressed at how strong some of those tornadoes were considering the overall messier than expected storm mode. Reminds me of 3/25/21 a bit, where overall tornado count isn't anything extreme, but the ones that did form were pretty strong/destructive. Hopefully we don't have another outbreak as big as this one this year
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather: Severe Outbreak March 14-15

#118 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Mar 16, 2025 12:24 pm

Brent wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Did the event met the expectations based on the high risk issued or not?


I won't call it a bust and the high risk probably did verify but I think the hype got a little too out of hand. I mean I knew someone at the NWS in Birmingham talking about a career making day I had people talking about it could be worse than 4/27/11 when there were 4 ef5's and 300 people died. There was someone on Facebook apparently talking about people having a percentage to die... Like it was crazy how far the hype went. I feel like we got very lucky given the dynamics this had

I mean I'm very glad it wasn't a repeat given what has happened over there before(4/27 still bothers me and I left 11 years ago) and my parents still had a way too close call after dark tonight(that seems to be a trend the last few years no matter what else) but still I hope people don't get complacent because this wasn't that bad overall considering. Like the places where most people live Huntsville and Birmingham and Atlanta didn't even have anything remotely noteworthy is the thing I've already read. Far too many people already don't trust the mets

Agreed, this was not a bust and seemed to have performed about average when compared to the high risks of past decade or two imo. It didn’t reach the maximum potential ceiling it could have, and there were subtle indications in the morning that it might not, but social media pushed expectations of many beyond what this setup was setup was likely even capable of delivering. What that tv met posted about the chance of death statistic was disgusting, there’s no context in yesterday’s event in which posting that would have been productive.
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather

#119 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Sun Mar 16, 2025 1:52 pm

Huntsville just narrowly escaped being hit by anything. If you look at the map of tornado warnings from the outbreak there’s this big streak across Alabama to Tennessee…and there’s a little gap in it where Huntsville is.
I got so lucky I was so terrified and prepared for the worst
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Re: 2025 Severe Weather

#120 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 16, 2025 3:32 pm

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