Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
519 AM AST Tue Mar 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High risk of rip currents will continue today across the north-
facing beaches of PR and the USVI. A mid-to upper level trough
will increase instability across the islands today through at
least tomorrow. By Wednesday and Thursday, a cold front will move
into the area promoting additional shower activity that could
result in a limited to risk of flooding across the islands. The
wet pattern may extend into the weekend with additional moisture
being lift over the islands. A long-period northwesterly swell
will create hazardous marine and coastal conditions the second
part of the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Calm weather conditions prevailed overnight, with shower activity
mainly across the surrounding waters. However, they moved
occasionally across the north and east PR and St John, St Thomas,
and St Croix. Winds prevailed from the north to the northeast. The
clear skies favored nighttime radiational cooling, allowing low
temperatures to touch the low 60s and upper 50s across mountains and
valleys and around the low 70s or upper 60s across coastal areas.
Pulses of a long-period northeasterly swell associated with the
surface low far to the northeast created life-threatening rip
currents along the north and northeast-facing beaches in PR and the
northern USVI.

The surface low northeast of the islands will move further into the
Central Atlantic as the frontal boundary approaches the northeast
Caribbean today. This pattern is promoting light variable winds
across the islands, but with pockets of clouds being noticed on
our Satellites moving toward us. A prefrontal trough will develop
near the islands later today, with a mid-to- upper-level trough
approaching from the west, increasing local instability. The weak
steering wind flow will increase the risk of observing flooding
rains as any developing activity will slowly drift or remain
quasi- stationary, increasing the potential to accumulate high
rainfall amounts, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours. Regardless of the increasing instability, the limiting
factor is still the available moisture, limiting the risk of
widespread flooding rains.

A jet stream will move in with the trough aloft on Wednesday. As the
cold front approaches Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from
the west, winds will shift from the north-northwest late tonight or
early Wednesday. Some weather stations in Jamaica and the Bahamas
islands report windy conditions behind the front. Therefore, we
cannot rule out windy northerly winds as the frontal boundary
crosses the region Wednesday into Thursday. GFS suggests FROPA
around late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, which could
promote local pleasant temperatures.

As the front approaches, we can anticipate showery weather to spread
from the west. After the frontal passage on Thursday, the moisture
should dissipate. However, we need to observe where the front
settles in order to better understand how much rain we may receive
and where. Additionally, by Thursday afternoon into the evening, a
surface trough will lift additional moisture from the southeast
Caribbean near St Croix, spreading into the rest of the islands by
late Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Wet and unstable weather conditions are expected for the first half
of the long-term period as an upper-level low continues to linger
north of the region. By Friday into Saturday a induced surface
trough will develop over the region bringing moisture and
instability into the islands. Precipitable water values will
increase to around 1.8 inches from Friday into Sunday, promoting an
increase in the potential for rainfall activity. Winds will
gradually shift from the southwest to the southeast late Friday into
Saturday. Therefore, on Friday there is the potential to observe
moderate to heavy showers across the interior towards the eastern
portions of Puerto Rico and the USVI. The rainfall activity will
continue on Saturday as the precipitable water values continues to
rise, particularly over the western portions of Puerto Rico. This
will favor afternoon convective activity in combination with diurnal
heating and local effects. With the expected activity, ponding of
water on roads and in low-laying areas are possible with the
heaviest rains.

By the beginning of the upcoming week, a building surface high
pressure moving from the eastern coast of the continental USA into
the central Atlantic will promote a easterly wind flow through at
least mid-week. At the same time a mid-level ridge will build in the
Caribbean region promoting drier and stable conditions aloft.
Therefore, limited activity is anticipated at this time.

The 925 mb temperatures will remain normal to below-normal during
the period. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s and low
90s along the coastal and urban areas, and in the upper 70s, to the
low to mid 80s in the mountains and higher terrains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06z TAF)

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the terminals. SHRA/TSRA expected
during the afternoon and evening, especially across the interior and
eastern half of PR (impacting SJU and IST). Expect wind speeds
between 3 and 10 kt, with sea breeze variations aft 18/13z, and
gusty near TSRA/+SHRA. Although winds will veer today, eventually
will become more west-southwest by the evening, and from the NNW by
Wednesday early morning.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface low to the northeast of the area will continue to produce
pulses of a northeasterly swell across the Atlantic Waters and
Anegada Passage through the next few days, deteriorating marine and
coastal conditions. In addition, another cold front with an
associated surface low will move eastward from the western to central
Atlantic, reaching the region by the middle of the week, extending
the light and variable wind conditions. However, there is a slight
to moderate chance of experiencing moderate to fresh northerly winds
as the front approaches. Furthermore, another long-period northwesterly
swell is expected to arrive in the latter part of the workweek,
extending the hazardous conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A pulse of a long-period north-northeasterly swell spreading
across the Atlantic waters and local passages will promote life-
threatening rip currents along the north facing beaches from
Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra and the US Virgin Islands. Therefore,
a High Rip Current Risk is in effect through late this evening.

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
441 AM AST Wed Mar 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is expected to move into the area today promoting
unstable conditions that will result in shower activity along the
Cordillera Central and portions of eastern Puerto Rico. Weather
conditions will improve gradually over on Thursday.
However,rainfall activity is anticipated by the weekend with PWAT
values increasing from Friday into Saturday. A long- period
northwesterly swell will create hazardous marine and coastal
conditions from Thursday onward. Therefore, we urge people to
stay informed with the latest updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Calm weather conditions were present overnight, with pleasant
temperatures, especially in the mountains, where lows dropped into
the upper 50s and low 60s. Some showers associated with a cold front
moved across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, impacting the
western and northern sections of Puerto Rico and the northern US
Virgin Islands. Additionally, there were still pulses of a long-
period northeasterly swell linked to a surface low far to the
northeast, creating life-threatening rip currents along the north
and northeast-facing beaches in both PR and the northern USVIs.

A cold front moving eastward from the western Atlantic/Caribbean
will move near the islands today. At the same time, a jet stream
accompanying the mid to upper-level trough will increase somewhat
local instability, providing a slight chance for thunderstorm
development. Moisture will filter rapidly across the region,
lingering to the south, near St Croix, by this afternoon into the
evening. A dry and cooler air mass behind the front will limit
rainfall activity, creating pleasant temperatures across the
islands. However, as moisture pools near the eastern third of PR and
the USVI, the best chance to see rain activity will be for those
locations between the afternoon and the evening. Thus, we assigned
them a limited risk of flooding with a slight chance of thunderstorm
formation. We cannot rule out windy, northerly gusty winds as the
frontal boundary crosses the region.

Life-threatening rip currents will continue to affect the north-
facing beaches of the islands (Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands) during the short term due to pulses of long-period
northerly swells. A larger northwesterly swell is expected to arrive
as early as late tonight, which will build seas to between 8 and 12
feet with periods of 13 to 15 seconds by Thursday afternoon. As
these significant, long-period northwesterly swells approach, the
Atlantic coastline could experience breaking waves of 15 feet or
higher, particularly between Thursday afternoon and early Friday
morning. This swell energy is likely to lead to Coastal Flood and
High Surf Advisory conditions, especially along the west-northwest
to northeast coast of Puerto Rico from Thursday afternoon through
Friday. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Watch may be issued later this
afternoon for the northwest to northeast coast of Puerto Rico, along
with a High Surf Advisory.

The lingering front will interact with an induced perturbation near
the southeast Caribbean Thursday into Friday, lifting abundant
moisture neat St Croix and spreading into the rest of the islands as
early as Thursday afternoon into Friday. Under this weather pattern,
we can expect periods of showery weather across portions of the
islands each day, with the potential for isolated flooding impacts.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

A surface-induced trough will promote wet and unstable weather
conditions on Saturday. A gradual increase in moisture is expected
from Saturday onwards with precipitable water values (PWAT) from 1.4
to 1.8 inches. Therefore, the moisture increase in combination with
daytime heating and local effects will favor the development of
shower activity across portions of the interior and western Puerto
Rico during the afternoon hours. With the expected activity, there
is an increased potential of isolated flooding impacts mainly in
urban and low-laying areas.

A strong surface high pressure moving from the western Atlantic into
the central Atlantic will promote an easterly wind flow through at
least Wednesday when winds will become from the southeast. In the
mid-levels a ridge will build over the northeastern Caribbean region
promoting drier air intrusion and stable conditions aloft. However,
patches of low-level moisture will continue to move into the area
from the east promoting passing trade wind showers during the
morning hours across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico. The 925 mb temperatures will gradually increase over the
weekend with temperatures at normal and above-normal
climatological values. At this time highs are expected to range
from upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal and urban areas, and
from the upper 70s to the low to mid 80s in the mountains and
higher terrains.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06z TAF)

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the terminals. Some showers will
spread from the west near JBQ into the rest of PR in the morning.
Then, SHRA/TSRA expected during the afternoon and evening, affecting
SJU and USVI terminals. Expect NNW to NW. Wind speeds between 5 and
12 kt, with sea breeze variations btwn 19/13-19/23Z, but gusty near
TSRA/SHRA, and as the front cross the islands.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface low northeast of the area will continue to produce pulses
of a northeasterly swell across the Atlantic waters and the Anegada
Passage through at least today. Also, a larger, long-period
northwesterly swell will spread across the Atlantic waters and
passages on Thursday, creating hazardous seas through the end of the
workweek. A cold front will reach the local area today, promoting
light to moderate winds with a westerly component. However, winds
will turn more northerly as the front crosses the area, and we can
expect locally higher gusts.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Life-threatening rip currents will continue across the north-facing
beaches of the islands through the weekend due to pulses of long
period northerly swells. A larger, northwesterly swell will
arrive on Thursday, building seas between 8 and 12 feet at 13 to
15 seconds. This will likely result in Coastal Flood and High Surf
Advisory conditions, particularly from the west/northwest to
northeast coast of Puerto Rico from Thursday through Friday.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
424 AM AST Thu Mar 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

The cold front has already moved east and away from
the local area, resulting in much drier and stable conditions
prevailing today. However, a slight increase in moisture is
expected between Saturday and Sunday, with precipitable water
values rising and leading to and uptick in shower activity across
the local region. Additionally, local buoys are already reporting
the arrival of a large northwesterly swells, confirming that
hazardous marine conditions are beginning to affect the local
atlantic waters and all local passages. These dangerous marine conditions
are expected to persist into the weekend. We urge the public to
remain vigilant and stay informed with the latest updates.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

As the cold front has shifted eastward, moving out of the local
forecast area, significantly drier and more stable conditions are
now prevailing across the region. Currently, the local forecast
area is situated within the subsidence zone, specifically in the
left entry quadrant of the upper level flow. This subsidence is
contributing to the suppression of cloud development and
precipitation, resulting in clearer skies and more limited weather
conditions through at least Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

Lingering moisture from an old frontal boundary will promote showery
weather by early next week with precipitable water values (PWAT) up
to 1.8 inches on Sunday. The increase in moisture content in
combination with daytime heating and local effects will result in
the development of shower activity across portions of the interior
and western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. By Monday
through mid-week conditions will become more dry and stable with
PWAT values at normal climatological values.

The rest of the long term period continues on track with relatively
drier conditions and limited shower activity. A surface high
pressure located in the central Atlantic will promote an easterly
wind flow through at least Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the mid-levels a
ridge is expected to build over the region promoting drier air
intrusion and stable conditions aloft. Nonetheless, patches of
shallow moisture dragged by the trade winds will continue to move
into the area promoting morning showers over eastern Puerto Rico and
the USVI.

The 925 mb temperatures will gradually increase at normal to above-
normal climatological values by early next week. Maximum
temperatures will range from upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal
and urban areas of the islands, and from the upper 70s to the mid
80s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected this forecast
period. NW to N winds are expected at around 10 knots or less,
with sea breeze variations btwn 20/14-20/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A low pressure system north of the area continues to
bring gale force winds far north of the region, generating large
swells over our local waters. This low pressure system is
forecast to continue moving northeast tonight, carrying with it
the source of the strong winds. As a result, seas are expected to
gradually diminish through Saturday as the system moves further
away,

At 0700Z the Buoy 41053 is already reporting a sharp increase in
north- northwest swell. this swell event is expected to peak late
this afternoon and gradually subside through Saturday. A small
Craft Advisories are in effect for the local and offshore
Atlantic waters due to hazardous marine conditions. seas will
build between 8 to 10 feet with occasional higher seas, generating
dangerous conditions for small vessels.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Large northerly swells will bring breaking waves between 8 to 14
feet, with some even higher at times, specially along north and
west facing beaches. Dangerous rip currents, beach erosion, and
minor coastal flooding are expected. These conditions can be life
threatening, so we strongly advise everyone to stay out of the
waters and away from the shoreline until conditions improve.

Remember...powerful breaking wave Can suddenly sweep people off
rocks, jetties, and even the shoreline, so everyone is urged to
stay alert and keep a safe distance from the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values should remain near critical levels today across the
region. Wind speeds will remain below critical levels, with sea
breezes influencing the coastal areas. Therefore, there is a low
fire danger today but we will continue to closely monitor any
changes to see if conditions warrant.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
415 AM AST Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Moisture levels are forecast to steadily increase tomorrow and
into the weekend, leading to an increase in shower activity. This
showers are not expected to be significant but they may result in
localized small stream and flood prone areas...mainly this
afternoon along the Cordillera Central. A drier and more stable
weather pattern is anticipated early next work week. Meanwhile,
hazardous marine and coastal conditions will persist through the
weekend due to a large northerly swell that is forecast to
continue to affect the local Atlantic waters and all passages
through at least Sunday. These conditions pose risk of dangerous
surf, rip currents, and coastal erosion. We strongly urge the
public, especially beachgoers and mariners, to exercise caution
and stay updated with latest advisories.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Neither radar or satellite images are showing significant cloud
or shower coverage across the local region through the overnight
hours. Although precipitable water values are expected to increase
in the next 24 to 36 hours, the persistent influence of a mid
level ridge will continue to suppress widespread rainfall through
the weekend. Any showers that do develop will be isolated,
primarily triggered by local effects and afternoon diurnal heating

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

A strong surface high pressure migrating from the western to the
central Atlantic will promote an easterly wind flow through mid-
week. Then, winds are expected to become from southeast as the
surface high continues to move over the Atlantic waters. The
forecast continues on track, with a mid-level ridge placing over the
region throughout the week. This ridge will promote drier conditions
and stability aloft. By early next week into the end of the
workweek, the precipitable water values will drop to normal and
below-normal climatological values (0.9 to 1.2 inches). Under this
pattern, limited shower activity is anticipated across the region.
However, patches of low level moisture in combination with daytime
heating and local effects will help to the formation of afternoon
showers across western and central Puerto Rico. During the morning
hours, trade wind showers will move over eastern Puerto Rico and the
USVI with no significant accumulations. Temperatures will remain
near normal to above-normal values throughout the period. Maximum
temperatures will range from upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal
and urban areas of the islands, and from the upper 70s to the mid
80s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF)

MVFR conditions will continue at all local terminals over the
next 24 hours. Overall, east-northeast winds at 5-10 mph will
shift to light and variable after 21/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A broad surface low pressure system over the western Atlantic
will remain in place, driving a northerly swell that will affect
the local waters over the coming days. The buoy 41043 is reporting
that the swell already peaked yesterday morning and the Caricoos
local buoy 41053 showed the peak of this swell event yesterday
afternoon. Therefore both buoy are showing a decreasing trend
since yesterday and will continue for the next couple of days.
This swell is expected is expected to result in hazardous marine
conditions, particularly to beachgoers and for small craft
operators , lasting through at least Saturday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

The swell will continue to slowly subside on today, and the
Coastal Flood Advisory was extended through at least this
afternoon. There is also a High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current
Risk in effect for the northern exposed beaches from Rincon to
Fajardo.

Across the north-facing beaches of Culebra, St. Thomas, and St.
John, a High Surf Advisory and a High Rip Current Risk remains in
effect due to breaking waves up to 10 feet, minor beach erosion is
possible. Across the western beaches of Puerto Rico from Cabo Rojo
to southern Rincon, a High Rip Current Risk remains in effect due to
life-threatening rip currents.

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values should remain below or near critical levels today
across the region. Wind speeds will remain below critical levels,
with sea breezes influencing the coastal areas. Therefore, there
is a low fire danger today but we will continue to closely monitor
any changes to see if conditions warrant.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
445 AM AST Sat Mar 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front currently positioned over the Bahamas
and extending northward will gradually move eastward across the
Atlantic. As it progresses, the front is expected to weaken,
losing much of its intensity by the time it approaches our local
region. While the front may bring some subtle changes in wind
patterns and a slight increase on cloud cover, significant weather
impacts are unlikely due to its weakening state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...
During the overnight hours, winds increased and gradually shifted
toward a more easterly component. This shift enhanced land-breeze
convergence along the northern coast of Puerto Rico and around
St. Thomas, supporting the development of scattered to locally
numerous showers across these areas.Portions of the NE Puerto Rico
including the San Juan metro area experience localized moderate to
heavy rain for briefed periods.

Moisture levels are expected to continue rising through the rest
of today, supporting the development of shower activity,
particularly across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon
hours. The forecast highlights a potential risk of excessive
rainfall, with localized urban and small stream flooding possible
mainly during the afternoon hours over the western portions of
Puerto Rico.

On Sunday, drying trend will begin to take hold across the
region. While isolated to scattered showers are still possible
during the afternoon hours, they will be more limited in coverage
and intensity compared to today. By Monday, a high pressure ridge
will build over the local area making it more stable with reducing
significantly the showers and cloud coverage across the local
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

Patches of moisture, with precipitable water values (PWAT) at around
1.5 in or more, will move over the region to start the long term
period, under east to east-southeast steering flow. A strong surface
high will be in place by Tuesday and will continue to promote up to
breezy wind flow. A mid to upper level ridge will also be present
Tuesday through early Thursday promoting more stable and drier
conditions aloft, with available moisture mostly contained below 700
mb. The start of the period will be characterized by the general
diurnal pattern, with overnight and morning trade wind showers
moving over windward sectors of the islands and afternoon convective
showers mainly over west-northwest Puerto Rico due to diurnal
heating, sea breeze convergence and local effects. Moisture and
instability increase somewhat to end the period, as a mid to upper
trough moves over the region Friday and Saturday. PWAT values will
also increase to at or above 1.5 in over the islands as a frontal
boundary or its remnants move over the region. These factors can
help boost the diurnal pattern late in the workweek and into the
weekend. The steering flow is forecast to back and become more
northeasterly by late Saturday. 925mb temperatures will be at normal
to above normal values to start the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA may bring brief periods of VFR conditions at TJSJ
through the period, USVI terminals after 22/06, and TJBQ between
22/16Z- 22/20Z. ENE winds at 5 to 10 knots will increase to 10 to
15 knots with higher gusts after 22/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...The large northerly swell that affected for the past few
days will continue to slowly subside today. As winds continue to
shift to an easterly direction and strengthen, reaching speeds of
15-25mph, wind related hazards along the coastal areas are
expected. Therefore expect choppy seas, hazardous marine
conditions, and an elevated risk of rip currents.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...Although the large swell that impacted the local
waters over the past few days will continue to subside today
dangerous rip current conditions are expected to persist. This is
due to increasing winds across the local region, which will
maintain hazardous coastal and marine conditions. Beachgoers and
swimmers should exercise extreme caution, as strong rip currents
can pose a significant risk to even the most experience
individuals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH values should remain near or above critical
levels today across the region. Wind speeds will remain below
critical levels, with sea breezes influencing the coastal areas.
Therefore, there is a low fire danger today but we will continue
to closely monitor any changes to see if conditions warrant.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
451 AM AST Sun Mar 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Remnants of the old frontal boundary will provide a favorable
environment for scattered showers across eastern Puerto Rico and
near the U.S. Virgin Islands, today. For Monday and Tuesday, a
more stable and drier air mass will be present. Late Tuesday and
and Wednesday, additional frontal remnants along with a surge in
winds can result in an increase in shower activity. An unstable
weather pattern could prevail by the second part of next week with
the arrival of a mid to upper-level trough and a frontal boundary
at low-levels.

A northwesterly to northerly swell will spread across the local
waters by late morning today through early tomorrow and will
result in a High Risk of Rip Currents for the north-oriented
beaches of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, and for the
northern beaches of Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Sunday through Tuesday...

During the overnight hours, Doppler radar indicated scattered
showers over the coastal waters near the US Virgin Islands, Culebra,
and Vieques, along with some light showers across the San Juan Metro
area and the north-central coastal plains of Puerto Rico.

Today is expected to be another active day, as remnants of the old
frontal boundary linger across the northern Caribbean, providing a
favorable environment for scattered showers across eastern Puerto
Rico and near the U.S. Virgin Islands. While a mid-level ridge
maintains a relatively stable atmosphere aloft, sufficient moisture
in the lower 3 km of the atmosphere will support continued shower
development across the region. Although vertical growth of showers
will be limited due to mid-level stability, slightly above-normal
precipitable water values and moderate trade winds may allow for
some training of showers. The affected areas in the afternoon are
likely to be downwind of El Yunque, the western interior, and
Mayaguez and its vicinity.

For Monday and Tuesday, the remnants of the front will continue to
dissipate, and increasing subsidence from the mid-level ridge will
promote a more stable and drier air mass across the islands. As a
result, shower coverage will decrease significantly, with mostly
sunny skies prevailing both days. Fresh trade winds will aid in
moisture convergence, leading to a few additional showers over the
US Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening, though
these showers are expected to be less frequent and less intense
compared to Saturday's activity.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Current model guidance suggest the approach of a patch of
moisture remnants from a past frontal boundary, with precipitable
water (PWAT) values ranging from 1.5 to 1.75 in, which are above
normal values for this time of the year. This moisture patch is
forecast to reach the local islands overnight to early morning on
Wednesday, promoting shower activity steered by east to east-
southeast flow over windward sectors of the islands. This feature
will also be accompanied by a wind surge, promoting up to breezy
condtions. However, a strong surface high will be in place over
the central Atlantic by midweek while a mid to upper level ridge
will also be present through early Thursday promoting more stable
and drier conditions aloft, with available moisture mostly
contained below 700 mb. This will all serve to limit shower
development. The general diurnal pattern (with overnight and
morning trade wind showers moving over windward sectors of the
islands and afternoon convective showers mainly over west-
northwest Puerto Rico due to diurnal heating, sea breeze
convergence and local effects) will be present during the period
but will be boosted by an increase in moisture and instability
over the region Friday and Saturday. Moisture and instability will
increase due to a mid to upper trough moving near the region
Friday into Saturday. PWAT values will also increase to at or
above 1.5 in over the islands as another frontal boundary or its
remnants move over the region. The steering flow is forecast to
back and become more northeasterly by Saturday and Sunday, causing
afternoon convection to concentrate over west to southwest PR.
Model guidance suggest a drying trend by Sunday. 925mb
temperatures will be at normal to above normal values to start the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across all terminals through
the forecast period. Clouds and scattered showers associated with
remnants of an old frontal boundary may affect briefly USVI
terminals and TJSJ during through 15Z. TJBQ may experience VCSH in
the afternoon associated with SHRA affecting TJMZ around 17Z-21Z.
ENE to E winds around 15-20 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations thru 23z, diminishing below 10 kt overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure will build across the Central Atlantic,
tightening the local pressure gradient and promoting moderate to
fresh trade winds throughout most of the week. A northwesterly to
northerly swell will start to spread across the local waters by late
morning today and will gradually dissipate by early tomorrow, Monday.
Remnants of an old frontal boundary lingers across the northern
Caribbean, promoting shower activity over the waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A northwesterly to northerly swell will start to spread across
the local waters by late morning today and will gradually
dissipate by early tomorrow, Monday. This swell will result in a
High Risk of Rip Currents from noon AST today through at least 6
AM AST tomorrow, Monday for the north-oriented beaches of Puerto
Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, and for the northern beaches of
Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John. Low to moderate risk elsewhere
in Puerto Rico and a moderate risk elsewhere in Culebra and the
northern USVI. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for
Vieques and St. Croix. For more information, please refer to the
latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and the latest Surf Zone
Forecast (SRFSJU).

If you become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain
calm, do not exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for
help. If you have to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to
shore and back toward the beach when possible. Do not attempt to
swim directly against a rip current as you will tire quickly.

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 AM AST Mon Mar 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure at all levels will continue to dominate through
midweek. Patches of moisture embedded within the breezy trades
will still bring showers to windward areas during the first part
of the workweek. Wednesday will bring an uptick in shower activity
as larger patches of low-level moisture spread across the region.
An unstable weather pattern could prevail by the second part of
the week with the arrival of a mid to upper-level trough and a
frontal boundary. The breezy winds will promote choppy seas, small
craft should exercise caution. Small craft advisories will be in
effect tomorrow for the offshore waters and local passages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

High pressure at all levels will continue to dominate through
midweek, as seen in GOES Water Vapor imagery showing a dry signature
over the eastern and central Caribbean. This setup will maintain
stable conditions aloft, while surface high pressure over the
northeast Atlantic supports breezy to windy trade winds, especially
along the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean. Today is expected
to be the driest day, with below-normal moisture leading to mostly
sunny skies and limited shower activity.

By Tuesday, moisture embedded in the brisk trades will bring
scattered showers, mainly over windward areas and the US Virgin
Islands. A few patches of clouds and showers will move across the
northeast Caribbean, but mid-level stability will keep rainfall
light and brief. Showers will remain shallow, with limited vertical
development due to the ridge aloft.

Wednesday will bring an uptick in shower activity as larger patches
of low-level moisture spread across the region. Operational models
show an increase in trade wind showers, with an upper-level trough
moving in from the west, weakening the high pressure and increasing
instability. TJSJ sounding data shows fast steering winds around 20
knots, this will keep showers moving quickly and preventing
prolonged rainfall in one area, reducing the flooding risk.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

Current model guidance suggest the approach of an area of relatively
drier air, but with small patches of moisture embedded, under up
to breezy east to east-southeast steering flow arriving to start
the period. However, a strong surface high will be in place over
the central Atlantic will gradually be displaced by another
surface high moving into the western Atlantic to start the period.
The general diurnal pattern (with overnight and morning trade
wind showers moving over windward sectors of the islands and
afternoon convective showers mainly over west-northwest Puerto
Rico, on Thursday, due to diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence
and local effects) will be present during the period but will be
boosted by an increase in moisture and instability over the region
late Thursday and Saturday. Instability will increase due to a
mid to upper trough moving near the region from the west, by late
Thursday available moisture will go from being confined below 800
mb to reaching up to 400 mb. Moisture will increase due to a
frontal boundary or its remnants moving over the region, PWAT
values will increase to 1.5 in to 1.8 in over the islands. The
steering flow is forecast to back and become more northeasterly by
Saturday and Sunday, causing afternoon convection to concentrate
over west to southwest PR. Model guidance suggest a drying trend
by Sunday and another uptick in moisture on Monday as the steering
flow gradually veers to become east-southeasterly. 925mb temperatures
will be at normal to above normal values to start the period.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across all TAF sites. Brief
trade wind showers may affect USVI terminals and TJSJ through 15Z.
VCSH at TJBQ and TJMZ possible between 17Z-21Z. Mainly E winds
around 20 kt with occasional higher gusts will prevail below FL150.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure will build across the Central Atlantic,
tightening the local pressure gradient and promoting moderate to
fresh trade winds throughout most of the week. A northwesterly to
northerly swell will gradually dissipate today. However, the moderate
to fresh winds will promote choppy seas; small craft advisories will
be in effect tomorrow for the offshore waters and local passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

The northwesterly to northerly swell continues to dissipate,
however a moderate risk of rip currents remains for most of the
coastlines, today due to increased winds. Up to a moderate risk
of rip currents is forecast for the rest of the week, meaning
that life- threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone.
For more information, please refer to the latest Coastal Hazard
Message (CFWSJU) and the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Tue Mar 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Variable weather will persist through midweek, with wetter
conditions and a limited flooding risks later in the week.

* Breezy conditions are expected across the region through midweek,
affecting coastal areas and the local islands.

* Strengthening winds will create choppy seas and hazardous
conditions for small crafts, prompting Small Craft Advisories
for offshore waters and local passages through Wednesday
morning.

* Life-threatening rip currents are possible across most local
beaches today.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate
a shallow patch of moisture over most of the region with PWAT at
around 1.30 over north-central to eastern PR to the USVI, and below
an inch over south-central to southwestern PR. Satellite derived
winds indicate speeds of around 15 to 25 mph over our surrounding
waters. These trades brought in scattered showers during the
overnight hours, mainly over the USVI, Culebra, eastern PR and the
metropolitan area. Minimums were in the low to mid 70s at lower
elevations of the islands and in the low to mid 60s at higher
elevations of Puerto Rico.

A surface high pressure over the central to northeast Atlantic will
continue to promote breezy to windy trade winds throughout most of
the period. A mid to upper level high will also persist through
early Thursday, promoting more stable conditions aloft and keeping
available moisture below 700mb. However, the breezy to windy trades
will continue to bring patches of moisture to the local islands.
Current satellite derived imagery shows rounds of cloudiness and
moisture, with PWAT values up to 1.5-1.7 in, over the Atlantic east
of the local islands. Under an east to east-southeast steering flow,
these moisture patches will continue to reach the local islands
during the period, bringing variable conditions with scattered
showers over windward areas. However, more stable conditions aloft
will limit vertical development of these showers. The pattern of
overnight and morning fast moving trade wind showers over windward
sectors of the islands will also include afternoon convective
showers mainly over west to west-northwest Puerto Rico, due to
diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence and local effects. The
approach of an upper trough from will increase instability by
Thursday and into the long term period. Available moisture will
reach above 500 mb by Thursday night, this will promote vertical
shower development. Moisture will also gradually increase as a
frontal boundary approaches the islands from the northwest. By late
Thursday and into the long term period, steering flow will become
more east to north-east, maintaining PWAT values generally above 1.5
inches. 925mb temperatures will be at normal to above normal values
for this time of the year.


.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

Global model guidance and the current forecast indicate a wetter
pattern from Friday into at least Saturday, driven by a mid-to-
upper-level trough and its associated features, including a
persistent segment jet. These elements will sustain a dynamically
favorable environment for convective development early in the
weekend. However, by Sunday into early next week, a mid-level
ridge advancing from the west will introduce drier air
entrainment and a developing trade wind cap inversion, suppressing
deep convection and limiting rainfall potential. Strengthening
east-to-east-northeast winds will add to this scenario, producing
breezy conditions while also enhancing trade wind showers,
particularly at night.

Reflecting the synoptic pattern, deep-layer moisture will peak
Friday, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.8 inches,
before gradually decreasing from Sunday night onward. Rain chances
will be highest Friday (60-70 percent), tapering to 40-50 percent
over the weekend and 30-40 percent by Monday. While overall
trends support drier conditions by early next week, model
variability in the timing of moisture decline introduces some
uncertainty.

Localized flooding remains a concern Friday, particularly for
windward areas of NE PR at night and interior to W-SW PR by day.
As rain chances decline, the flooding risk will diminish, though
isolated minor flooding remains possible. Any shifts in
moisture availability or wind flow could modify these impacts,
Temperatures should remain near climatological averages with no
significant concerns.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at the TAF sites. Trade wind
-SHRA/SHRA can continue to reach the eastern terminals at times.
VCSH at TJBQ possible btw 17-22Z. Mainly easterly winds up to around
20kts with higher gusts will prevail through 22Z, decreasing
somewhat after.


&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure system building over the Central Atlantic
will tighten the local pressure gradient, bringing moderate to
fresh trade winds through midweek, with similar conditions
returning by Friday into the weekend. These strengthening winds
will generate choppy and rough seas, prompting Small Craft
Advisories for offshore waters and local passages through at least
Wednesday morning. Furthermore, a cold front and pre-frontal
trough approaching the region will increase shower and
thunderstorm activity starting Thursday.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Breezy trades will continue for the next few days, promoting a
moderate risk of rip currents for most beaches and coastal areas
of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Since life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf
zone, beachgoers should exercise caution. For more details, please
refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A 30-day rainfall analysis suggests healthy fuel conditions
across most of Puerto Rico. However, the far southern coastal
plains, which have received limited to no rainfall in the past 7
days, likely have drier 1- to 10-hour fuels that are more prone
to fire spread, as evidenced by recent fire activity. Today,
conditions will feature below-normal moisture, low relative
humidity, limited to no wetting rains, and stronger winds of up
to 25 mph, creating favorable conditions for rapid fire spread.
These factors elevate the risk for fast-moving fires,
particularly in grass-dominated areas of the southern coastal
plains. As a result, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for
these areas.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
501 AM AST Wed Mar 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy and gusty conditions will continue to create choppy to
hazardous seas for small craft today, while also heightening
wind and fire danger risks along coastal areas.

* Life-threatening rip currents are possible across most local
beaches today.

* Wetter conditions with an increased flooding risk, as well as
strengthening winds bringing hazardous seas and life-
threatening surf zone conditions, are expected later this week,
with conditions persisting into the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate
patches of moisture near and over most of the region with values up
to around 1.40 over land. Satellite derived winds continue to report
speeds of around 15 to 25 mph over our surrounding waters. Scattered
showers under east-southeast steering flow reached the islands
during the overnight hours, including St. Croix, Vieques, Culebra,
most of the eastern third of PR, including the metropolitan area,
and some sectors of south-central to southeast PR. Low temperatures
were in the low to mid 70s at lower elevations of the islands and in
the upper 50s to mid 60s at higher elevations of Puerto Rico.

A surface high pressure over the northeastern Atlantic is tightening
the local pressure gradient, which will promote breezy to windy
trades today. A low pressure over the northeastern Atlantic and a
another surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will push
into the surface high currently over the northeastern Atlantic. As
the new surface high gradually builds during the second half of the
workweek, the steering flow will relax somewhat as it backs from
east to east-southeasterly (today and tomorrow) to easterly on
Friday and east to east-northeasterly Friday night and into the
weekend (also increasing on Friday).

A mid to upper level high will also persist through early Thursday,
promoting more stable conditions aloft and keeping available
moisture below 700mb. Breezy to windy trades will continue to bring
patches of moisture to the local islands. The diurnal pattern of
overnight and morning fast moving trade wind showers over windward
sectors of the islands will also include afternoon showers mainly
over west to west-northwest Puerto Rico today and Thursday, due to
diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence and local effects. Patches
of moisture with PWAT values at 1.5 to 1.7 inches will continue to
reach the region from the southeast today. By late tomorrow, a
frontal boundary as well as a mid to upper level trough will
approach the area, increasing moisture and instability. Available
moisture will reach above 500 mb by Thursday night, this will
promote vertical shower development. This will give way to a wetter
pattern to end the workweek and into the weekend (long term period).
This will strengthen the diurnal pattern, particularly on Friday, of
advective showers and afternoon convective showers, although with
the shift in steering flow, will concentrate more over the interior
to western-southwestern PR. Localized flooding is more likely on
Friday, particularly for windward areas of northeast PR at night and
over the interior to western-southwestern PR during the day. 925mb
temperatures will be at normal to above normal values for this time
of the year during the rest of the workweek (except on Friday when
more normal values are forecast).


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

The most recent global model guidance now suggests a wetter
pattern through most of the period. Combined with a persistent jet
aloft, this wet pattern will result from the remnants of a
frontal boundary during the weekend and pulses of moisture
driven by a low-level through to the southeast early next week.
These elements will sustain a dynamically favorable environment
for convective development. Strengthening east-to- east- northeast
winds will add to this scenario, producing breezy conditions
while also enhancing trade wind showers, particularly at night.

Reflecting the synoptic pattern, deep-layer moisture will peak
Saturday, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.8
inches. Lower PWAT values will follow between Sunday morning and
Monday morning, before another gradual increase begins Monday
night. Rain chances will be highest during the weekend (50-70
percent), tapering to 40-50 percent on Monday, and back to 50-60
percent by Tuesday.

Localized flooding remains a concern, particularly for windward
areas of E-NE PR at night and interior to W PR by day during
periods of peal moisture. As rain chances decline on Monday, the
flooding risk will diminish, though isolated minor flooding
remains possible. Temperatures should remain near to slightly
warmer than climatological averages with no significant concerns.
Given recent model variability, any shifts in moisture
availability or wind flow could modify these impacts.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions prevailing at the TAF sites. Trade wind
-RA/SHRA can continue to reach TJSJ/TIST/TJPS/TISX at times. VCSH at
TJBQ btw 17-22Z. Mainly easterly winds up to around 20 kts with
higher gusts will prevail through 22Z, decreasing somewhat after.


&&

.MARINE...

A robust surface high pressure system over the Central Atlantic will
produce moderate to fresh trade winds through tonight. These
strengthening winds will generate choppy and rough seas, prompting
Small Craft Advisories for offshore waters and local passages through
late tonight. Hazardous conditions for small craft will likely return
by Friday into the weekend. Furthermore, a cold front and pre-
frontal trough approaching the region will increase shower and
thunderstorm activity starting Thursday.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Breezy trades will continue today, promoting a moderate risk of
rip currents for most local beaches. Since life-threatening rip
currents are possible in the surf zone, beachgoers should exercise
caution. Deteriorating surf zone conditions will likely require a
high risk of rip currents over weekend, particularly for north-
and east- facing beaches. For more details, please refer to the
latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There is an elevated fire danger hazard risk today, particularly
for the southwestern coastal plains of Puerto Rico. While there
is a 20-30 percent probability of precipitation early this
morning for the area, today's conditions will feature below-normal
moisture, significantly low relative humidity, breezy winds, and
gusty conditions. These factors elevate the risk for fast-moving
fires, particularly in grass-dominated areas. As a result, a Fire
Danger Statement (RFD) has been issued for these areas. Refer to
RFDSJU for details.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
438 AM AST Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers will increase in frequency today and Friday as a surface
trough and a cold front approaches the region. Wetter and windier
conditions will return this weekend and mostly likely continue
over the first part of next workweek. Increasing winds will result
in a high risk of life-threatening rip currents and hazardous
conditions for small craft operators during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT-TERM...Today through Saturday...

Radar and satellite analysis showed that lingering showers from
afternoon convection persisted into the evening hours over the far
western sections of Puerto Rico and parts of the San Juan
metropolitan area, resulting in minimal rainfall accumulations.
Shower activity diminished later in the evening, but an uptick in
showers over the local waters was observed early this morning, with
no significant impact to land areas. Overnight lows ranged from
around 60°F in the higher elevations of the Cordillera Central to
the upper 70s across eastern Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
Winds remained light and variable.

A broad surface high-pressure system over the North-Central Atlantic
will maintain east-to-southeast winds today, gradually weakening but
still supporting warmer-than-normal temperatures. With precipitable
water values ranging from 1.2-1.4 inches, diurnal heating,
orographic lifting, and sea breeze convergence will drive afternoon
showers over northwestern Puerto Rico and areas downwind of elevated
terrain, while isolated trade wind showers remain possible
elsewhere, especially in the morning. The probability of
precipitation will range from 40-50 percent this morning across
eastern and southern Puerto Rico, increasing to 50-70 percent over
northwestern Puerto Rico during the afternoon.

Throughout the remainder of the forecast period, a combination of an
approaching frontal boundary and associated pre-frontal trough, a
mid-to-upper-level trough and associated jet streak, and a
strengthening eastward-moving surface high pressure will influence
weather conditions. Winds will weaken and shift easterly with the
pre-frontal trough tonight, but the high will strengthen east-to-
east-northeast winds on Friday, leading to breezy conditions through
the weekend. A cooling trend will occur, with 500 mb temperatures
dropping to around -10°C by Saturday, along with enhanced upper-
level divergence and deep moisture advection generated by the
trough. This will push precipitable water values above 1.5 inches,
maintaining elevated moisture levels throughout the period.
Temperatures will trend closer to typical values on Friday and
Saturday as the wind pattern shifts to the east-northeast and
strengthens.

While shower activity may briefly diminish this evening, rainfall
coverage will increase later tonight onward, with the most active
weather expected Friday afternoon into Saturday, when thunderstorm
development is possible. The heaviest rainfall will favor the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, particularly during
nighttime hours, while daytime heating and local effects will drive
convective development across interior and western Puerto Rico. The
potential for localized flooding will increase, especially on
Saturday. Strengthening winds will also elevate the risk of wind-
related hazards along exposed coastal areas. For additional hazard
details, refer to the Experimental Graphical Hazard Weather Outlook
at https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=sju.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...

The long-term forecast remains on track, with a variable weather
pattern. Another broad high surface pressure will move eastward,
pulling the rest of the remnants of the frontal boundary across
the region. Frequent moderate to locally heavy showers will move
along windward sections in the nigh and morning hours and over
western sections of Puerto Rico in the afternoon. Monday is still
anticipated to be the less wet day of the long- term period, but
light to locally moderate showers embedded in the trades will move
occasionally over the CWA. As the high pressure migrates
eastward, breezy winds will turn from the E-ESE late on Monday.
Model guidance suggests that the high pressure and the influence
of a mid low pressure will pool pulses of moisture occasionally
across the region, increasing PWAT values to near above-normal
values (around 1.6 inches). Showers are expected along windward
sections in the morning and western portions of Puerto Rico in the
afternoon. Ponding of water in roadways, urban, and poorly
drained areas is very likely, along with isolated urban flooding.
Temperatures are still expected slightly warmer near above normal
values, however, no significant heat risk is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

VFR conds will prevail at all TAF sites. However, -SHRA may result
in brief MVFR conditions at USVI terminals through 27/13Z and again
after 27/23Z, and PR terminals between 27/14-23Z. Light and variable
winds, increasing to 10-15 knots and turning from E-SE after 27/14Z
with sea breeze variations. Light and variable winds will return
after 27/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A robust surface high pressure system over the Central Atlantic will
promote moderate southeasterly winds today, then turning from the
east tonight. Winds will increase again by Friday night through the
weekend, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft. A cold front
and pre-frontal trough approaching the region will increase shower
and thunderstorm activity starting on Friday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

The risk of rip currents will remain moderate today for most beaches
and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
However, increasing winds will elevate the risk later on Saturday
for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St. Croix.
The risk may remain high for these areas for the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
412 AM AST Fri Mar 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

As the surface trough associated to a cold front progress,
showers are expected to increase today across the area. This will
lead to wetter and windier conditions, which are forecast to
continue through the weekend and into early part of the next
workweek. The increasing winds will generate high risk of rip
currents and hazardous conditions for small craft operators during
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Radar and satellite analysis indicated that lingering showers from
afternoon convection continued into the evening across the far
northwestern sections of Puerto Rico, with Aguadilla receiving up to
half an inch of rainfall. Shower activity gradually diminished later
in the evening; however, after midnight, additional showers moved
over the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, producing
minimal rainfall accumulations. Overnight temperatures ranged from
around 60°F in the higher elevations of the Cordillera Central to
the upper 70s across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds remained light
and variable throughout the night.

A combination of large-scale and localized weather features will
influence conditions in the short term, including an approaching
frontal boundary, a pre-frontal trough, mid-to-upper-level troughs,
a persistent jet streak, and a strengthening surface high. The pre-
frontal trough will maintain easterly winds at 10-15 mph with higher
gusts today, while a weak 700 mb high to the north introduces an
east-northeast wind component. With precipitable water levels
between 1.4-1.5 inches, combined with diurnal heating, orographic
lift, and sea breeze convergence, afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected across interior and west-southwestern
Puerto Rico, as well as areas downwind of elevated terrain,
including the southern hills. Elsewhere, isolated trade wind showers
will remain possible, mainly in the morning. Rain chances range from
40-60 percent across eastern Puerto Rico this morning, increasing to
50-70 percent in southwestern Puerto Rico by the afternoon.

As the surface high strengthens tonight, breezy to windy conditions
will develop, and a cooling trend aloft will continue, with 500 mb
temperatures dropping to -9 to -10°C by Saturday and Sunday. These
cooler temperatures, along with enhanced upper-level divergence and
deep moisture transport from the troughs, will push precipitable
water values above 1.5 inches tonight, sustaining elevated moisture
levels through the forecast period. As a result, shower activity and
isolated thunderstorms will become more frequent, with the most
active weather expected Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures
will remain slightly warmer than normal today but return to near-
normal levels over the weekend as winds strengthen.

While today’s rainfall pattern follows typical climatology, shower
coverage will expand tonight and persist through the coming days.
The highest rainfall totals will likely affect the U.S. Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, particularly at night, while
daytime heating and local effects will drive convective activity
across interior and western Puerto Rico. The risk of localized
flooding will increase over the weekend. Additionally, strengthening
winds will elevate the potential for wind-related hazards along
exposed coastal areas. For more details on potential hazards, visit
the Experimental Graphical Hazard Weather Outlook at
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=sju.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

The inherited forecast remains on track. Most recent model guidance
suggests that Monday is the driest day of the period as a
slightly drier air mass filters across the region. Nonetheless,
light to locally moderate showers embedded in the trades will
filter across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from time to
time as the easterly wind flow associated with the dominating
high-pressure system prevails. Tuesday into Wednesday precipitable
water values are foreseen to go from near normal to above normal
values for this time of the year. With this increase in
precipitable water values and humidity, we also anticipate a
slight increase in showers across the regions. Showers are
expected along the windward sections in the morning and western
portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon. At this time, we do not
anticipate a significant impact related to this increase in
showers. Temperatures are still expected to be slightly warmer
near above-normal values. However, no significant heat risk is
expected. Overall, the long-term period will be dominated by
variable weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. However, brief periods
of MVFR conditions are possible due to -SHRA at USVI terminals
through 28/13Z and again after 28/23Z, at TJUA throughout the
forecast period, and at TJPS/TJBQ between 28/17-23Z. Winds will
remain light and variable, increasing to 10-15 knots from the east
after 28/14Z with sea breeze variations, before becoming light and
variable again after 28/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A robust surface high pressure system over the Central Atlantic will
promote easterly today. Winds will increase again by tonight through
the weekend, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft,
particularly along the Atlantic waters and Anegada Passage. However,
the rest of the waters will gradually become hazardous through the
weekend. A cold front and pre frontal trough approaching the region
will increase shower and thunderstorm activity starting on Friday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

The risk of rip currents will remain moderate today for most
beaches and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. However, increasing winds will elevate the risk late
Saturday into Sunday for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and USVI. The risk may remain high for these areas for
the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
436 AM AST Sat Mar 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy conditions are expected to persist this weekend and early
next week, with an increase in shower frequency anticipated. The
winds will also cause hazardous seas across most of the local
waters, while life threatening rip currents will persist as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Radar and satellite analysis showed that lingering showers from
afternoon convection persisted into the evening over the far western
sections of Puerto Rico. Strengthening trade winds also contributed
to an increase in shower activity over the surrounding waters, with
some showers moving onshore along the northern coast and advancing
further inland into the interior. Since 8 PM AST, radar estimates
indicate peak rainfall accumulations of around a quarter of an inch
over portions of the San Juan metropolitan area and north-central
Puerto Rico. Overnight temperatures varied from the upper 50s in the
higher elevations of the Cordillera Central to the upper 70s across
eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds generally
ranged from 5-15 mph out of the northeast along coastal areas, while
remaining light and variable farther inland and across southern
sections.

A mix of weather systems will shape conditions over the next few
days, including the remnants of a weakening front, a strengthening
high-pressure system, a persistent subtropical jet, and an upper-
level trough. The strengthening high will tighten the pressure
gradient, bringing breezy to windy conditions with east to east-
northeast winds of 20-25 mph, while also pushing lingering moisture
from the front into the region. At upper levels, the subtropical jet
will support ventilation, and the approaching trough will enhance
lift in the atmosphere, creating favorable conditions for deep
convection. This setup will coincide with cooling temperatures
aloft, with 500 mb temperatures dropping below typical values
(around -9 degrees Celsius) by this afternoon, while moisture
levels increase, with precipitable water values exceeding 1.5
inches—above normal for this time of year.

For today, strengthening winds will bring more frequent trade wind
showers to windward areas this morning. By the afternoon, a
combination of high moisture, daytime heating, and local effects
will trigger scattered to numerous showers, particularly across
interior and western Puerto Rico, as well as areas downwind of
elevated terrain. Rain chances range from 40-50% in northeastern
Puerto Rico this morning, increasing to 60-80% in western Puerto
Rico by the afternoon. A windy and showery pattern will persist
through the weekend, with Sunday into Monday expected to be the most
active period, bringing increased shower coverage and a higher
chance of thunderstorms. The highest rainfall totals will likely
affect the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, particularly
at night, while daytime heating and local effects will drive
convective activity across interior and western Puerto Rico. The
risk of urban and small stream flooding will continue over the next
few days, with a higher risk expected on Sunday. Additionally,
strengthening winds could lead to wind-related hazards, especially
in exposed coastal areas. For more details on potential hazards,
visit the Experimental Graphical Hazard Weather Outlook at
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=sju.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

The latest model guidance indicates that Tuesday into Wednesday will
be the wettest period as a trough continues to approach Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This system will bring above-
normal precipitable water values, increased humidity from the
surface to mid-levels, and mid-level temperatures around -8°C,
creating favorable conditions for thunderstorm development similar
to previous days. Rainfall is expected across windward sections
in the morning, with activity shifting to western Puerto Rico in
the afternoon. While no significant impacts are anticipated,
ponding of water on roads and poorly drained areas is possible
with the heaviest showers. By Thursday and Friday, a gradual
improvement in conditions is expected. Temperatures will remain
slightly above normal, but no significant heat risks are forecast.
Overall, the long-term period will feature variable weather
conditions, with periods of rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

VFR conditions will generally prevail across all TAF sites. However,
brief periods of MVFR conditions may occur due to increased trade
wind showers and afternoon convection, impacting TJUA and USVI
terminals throughout the forecast period and reaching TJPS/TJBQ
after 29/14Z. Winds will remain east-northeast with sea and land
breeze variations, ranging from 5-15 knots through 29/14Z before
increasing to 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Higher wind
gusts are possible near showers. Winds are expected to gradually
ease to 10-15 knots by 29/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front north of the area and a building surface high pressure
over the western Atlantic will promote light to moderate east winds
today. Winds and seas will continue to increase today for the
Caribbean waters and Mona Channel. As a result, hazardous seas are
anticipated for most of the local waters through at least mid-week. A
surface trough will increase shower and thunderstorm activity from
late Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Increasing winds will cause the risk of rip currents to increase
to high today onward, mostly for northern Puerto Rico, Culebra,
and for the Virgin Islands. These conditions are expected to
continue through much of the workweek, with additional areas
likely observing a high rip current risk as well.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 PM AST Sat Mar 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds will persist through much of the upcoming week,
resulting in passing showers, life threatening rip currents, and
choppy and hazardous seas. The rain will lead to ponding of water
in roadways and low-lying areas, while isolated urban flooding
will be possible. The days with the best chances of rain are from
Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...

Breezy to windy conditions were observed across the islands today,
with observed wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph across most coastal
areas. Scattered showers were observed through the morning hours
with rainfall accumulations around a quarter of an inch. However,
early in the afternoon, stronger showers developed over western
Puerto Rico, and from Bayamon to Vega Baja, leaving just over an
inch of rain. The heaviest accumulations were observed from Adjuntas
westward toward Mayaguez, were isolated lightning strikes were also
detected. Maximum temperatures were from the mid-to upper 80s in
general across the lower elevations of the islands, and from the low
70s to mid 80s across the higher elevations.

A broad surface high pressure building from the western Atlantic
into the central Atlantic will tighten the local pressure gradient
and wind speeds will increase across the northeastern Caribbean
through Sunday. Therefore, breezy conditions are expected across the
islands through the rest of the weekend. This will also cause choppy
to hazardous seas across the regional waters for the next several
days. At the upper levels, a 65 to 70 kt jet will linger over the
region, and the 500 mb temperatures will drop around -8 to -9
degrees C through the short term period. Meanwhile, an induced
surface trough(just east of the Leeward Islands) will continue to
move westward and cross the region from late tonight through early
Sunday. The precipitable water content will fluctuate between 1.40-
1.70 inches through at least Sunday night. Therefore, the potential
for thunderstorm development and the risk for urban and small stream
flooding will remain elevated. On Monday, the instability aloft will
be higher with a stronger jet segment moving just north of the
islands, and the 500 mb temperature could drop near -10C. However,
the PWAT is forecast to drop between 1.20-1.40 inches. Regardless,
the thunderstorm potential will remain elevated due to the expected
unstable conditions aloft, in combination with diurnal effects.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.../from prev discussion/

The latest model guidance indicates that Tuesday into Wednesday will
be the wettest period as a trough continues to approach Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This system will bring above-
normal precipitable water values, increased humidity from the
surface to mid-levels, and mid-level temperatures around -8°C,
creating favorable conditions for thunderstorm development similar
to previous days. Rainfall is expected across windward sections
in the morning, with activity shifting to western Puerto Rico in
the afternoon. While no significant impacts are anticipated,
ponding of water on roads and poorly drained areas is possible
with the heaviest showers. By Thursday and Friday, a gradual
improvement in conditions is expected. Temperatures will remain
slightly above normal, but no significant heat risks are forecast.
Overall, the long-term period will feature variable weather
conditions, with periods of rain and thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions expected. However, periods of -SHRA/VCSH will
continue intermittently across most terminals through at least
30/12z due to sfc trough streaming from the Leeward Islands. The
29/12z TJSJ sounding indicated east winds up to 26 kt blo 3000 ft.

&&

.MARINE...
A building surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will
promote fresh to locally strong easterly winds during the rest of
this weekend and possibly through the next weekend. Seas will
continue to build between 6 and 9 feet across the regional waters
during the next several days. As a result, hazardous seas are
anticipated for most of the local waters through at least mid-week.
A surface trough will increase shower and thunderstorm activity
through early next week.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Strong winds will continue to result in life-threatening rip
currents, with the highest likelihood for northern and eastern
Puerto Rico, Culebra, and all of the Virgin Islands. These
conditions are not expected to improve through the rest of the
workweek. In fact, other areas along western and southern Puerto
Rico will likely experience a high rip current risk late in the
week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
511 AM AST Mon Mar 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Similar weather conditions are expected today, with showery weather
over windward coastal areas and showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing across interior and western Puerto Rico during the
afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions will persist through the rest
of the week, particularly on Thursday and Friday. These winds will
continue to produce hazardous and rough seas, as well as life-
threatening beach conditions. Small Craft Advisories and a High Rip
Current Risk remain in effect for most of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Overnight, radar and satellite imagery showed partly cloudy skies
with showers across the northern USVI and northern and eastern
Puerto Rico, while clear skies persisted in the rest of the areas.
According to Doppler radar estimates, overall, no significant
accumulations were recorded since midnight, but in the last hour at
least half an inch fell in southeastern municipalities like Humacao
and Yabucoa. Temperature-wise, from the upper 50s to low 60s in the
higher elevations of the Cordillera Central to the low 70s across
the lower elevations of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Breezy winds persisted mainly from the east at around 5 to 15 mph
along coastal areas, while remaining somewhat lighter and variable
inland.

A broad surface high-pressure system dominating the Atlantic basin
will keep the local pressure gradient tight, promoting easterly
breezy to windy conditions throughout the workweek (both short- and
long-term). Additionally, patches of moisture and showers embedded
in the trade winds will continue to affect the region each day. For
today, this pattern, combined with a persistent subtropical jet,
will provide ventilation and cooler temperatures aloft, with 500 mb
temperatures dropping to -9 to -10 degrees C, enhancing the
potential for thunderstorm development, particularly during the
afternoon when showers are expected to concentrate across the
western sectors of the main island. Furthermore, precipitable water
(PWAT) content will continue to fluctuate within the normal to above-
normal range today. Expect isolated to scattered showers across the
windward sectors of the islands throughout the day, with afternoon
convection enhanced by local effects over portions of the interior
and western Puerto Rico. Keep in mind that the risk of urban and
small stream flooding will range from limited to elevated, which
means ponding of water on roads and poorly drained areas, as well as
flooding in urban areas, roads, and small streams.

By Tuesday, less coverage of rain is expected as PWAT values
decrease to normal levels, and patches of drier air move into the
region. Additionally, 500 mb temperatures are expected to increase
by 2 degrees C. By midweek, moisture content will rise again to
around 1.6 to 1.7 inches, and model guidance suggests another day of
showery conditions and strong breezes. On the bright side, these
conditions will help move showers quickly and could help reduce
flood risks. It’s important to note that breezy to windy conditions
will maintain hazardous marine and coastal conditions throughout the
week, with some statements and advisories in effect. Residents and
visitors are encouraged to heed the advice of lifeguards, beach
patrols, and flag warning systems. More details can be found in the
marine and beach forecast sections.

Overall, the short-term period will be dominated by breezy to windy
and showery weather conditions, with isolated to scattered showers
across the windward sectors of the islands each night and morning,
and convection enhanced by local effects over portions of the
interior and western Puerto Rico each afternoon. Expect life-
threatening rip currents across northern and eastern Puerto Rico,
and hazardous seas across most local waters.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

Some deviations in the mid-to upper-level dynamics are indicated by
model guidance. Mid-level ridging now remains to the north and west
of the forecast area, while troughing develops over the region. Cold
air advection also persists, with 500 mb temperatures dropping to -
10 to -11C by Saturday. At the upper levels, favorable jet dynamics
develop, with 250 mb winds ranging between 70 and 80 kts from
Thursday through Friday, then decreasing to 50-60 knots by the
weekend. This will promote ventilation aloft, creating favorable
conditions for deep convection. However, a limiting factor will be
mid-level dry air intrusion, with 700–500 mb relative humidity
falling below 10% beginning Friday. If this dry air persists through
the end of the period, it could limit the development of afternoon
thunderstorms.

At low levels, precipitable water content will fluctuate between
below 1.0 inches and up to 1.5 inches, depending on patches of
moisture streaming across the area. These values will range from
well below normal to near the climatological normal. As a result,
shower activity is expected with the arrival of these moisture
surges while fair-weather conditions are likely in between as
moisture levels decrease due to passing dry slots. A few
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours, with Thursday
presenting the highest potential compared to other days in the long-
term forecast.

Breezy to windy conditions will also prevail, particularly on
Thursday and Friday. Around 90% of the GEFS, ECMWF ENS, and GEPS
ensemble members suggest that surface wind speeds may reach 25 mph
or higher, with about 14% indicating the potential for winds
exceeding 30 mph by Thursday. Higher wind gusts of 35 mph or more
cannot be ruled out, especially over windward and coastal areas of
the islands. These conditions may result in unsecured outdoor items
being blown around or damaged. Winds are expected to subside over
the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to be present this forecast
period. However, periods of -RA and VCSH will continue throughout
the morning eastern TAF sites. This could result in locally higher
winds and brief periods of reduced vis. JBQ have better chance to
observe -SHRA/VCSH aft 31/17Z-20Z. Winds will remain mainly from the
east with sea and land breeze variations, ranging from 10-15 knots
through 31/13Z before increasing to 10-20 knots with gusts up to 25
to 30 knots. Winds from the ESE around 10 to 15 knots by 31/22Z into
the overnight period.


&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to
promote fresh to locally strong easterly winds throughout most of
the workweek. Seas will continue to build between 6 and 9 feet across
the regional waters during the next several days. As a result,
hazardous seas are anticipated for most of the local waters through
much of the workweek. A surface trough will persist over the area
promoting shower and thunderstorm activity for the next few days.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Rough seas will persist today due to ongoing windy conditions.
Nearshore buoy data from Rincon has shown wave heights reaching 1 to
2 feet above forecasted values at times. As a result, a Rip Current
Statement has been issued for these beaches through this evening.
Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through the rest
of the week, especially on Thursday and Friday, as winds are
forecast to strengthen further. This will lead to increasingly rough
and hazardous seas, which in turn will generate life-threatening rip
currents along affected coastlines.

For more information, please refer to the latest Coastal Hazard
Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).

Residents and visitors in affected regions should heed warnings,
avoid swimming in these waters, and stay informed about updates from
local authorities.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
512 AM AST Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Today, showery weather is expected over windward coastal areas
and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing
across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon. Breezy to windy
conditions will persist through the end of the week. Thursday and
Friday are expected to be the windiest days. These winds will
continue to result in hazardous marine conditions, as well as
life-threatening rip currents across beaches of northern Puerto
Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Small Craft Advisories and a High Rip Current Risk will
remain in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Satellite and radar data showed groups of clouds with embedded
showers moving quickly over the waters, with some brushing windward
coastal areas of the islands. Winds veered slightly to the east-
southeast overnight and are expected to remain from that direction
through at least tonight, before shifting back to the east-northeast
for the remainder of the short-term forecast period. Pleasant
conditions prevailed overnight, with minimum temperatures in the low
to mid-70s across coastal areas and smaller islands, and in the
upper 50s to low 60s across the highest interior valleys of Puerto
Rico.

In terms of showers, similar weather conditions are expected to
continue through the short-term forecast. Sufficient instability
will persist, with below-normal 500 mb temperatures remaining
between -8C and -9C, along with steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates
through Thursday. Moisture content will also stay near normal, as
patches of moisture move across the local islands. Relative humidity
in the 700-500 mb layer will remain near to above normal levels
before dropping sharply to below 10% by Thursday afternoon, as mid-
level dry air intrudes over the northern Caribbean. This will result
in a decrease in the areal coverage of showers by the end of the
forecast period. Therefore, expect showery weather across windward
coastal regions during the evening and morning hours, followed by
convective activity over interior and western portions of Puerto
Rico during the afternoon. Any afternoon thunderstorm activity will
be short-lived and move through the area fairly quickly.

Breezy to windy conditions will continue as the pressure gradient
over the northern Caribbean tightens due to a surface high-pressure
system building over the western central Atlantic. Forecast
confidence is high, as models consistently indicate winds
strengthening further by Wednesday. Thursday is expected to be the
windiest period, with sustained winds potentially exceeding 25 mph
and frequent gusts reaching 35 mph or higher, especially across
coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the smaller islands. We will
continue to monitor the forecast closely, as a Wind Advisory may be
issued if these conditions materialize. Winds of this strength can
make driving hazardous, particularly for high-profile vehicles.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Model guidance suggests a surface high-pressure system over the
western Atlantic moving eastward into the Central Atlantic,
promoting east to northeast winds through Sunday, which will then
become more easterly early next week. At the same time, a mid-
level ridge will dominate to the north and west of the forecast
area, while troughing develops and persists over the region
through the forecast period. This will promote ventilation and
cooler temperatures aloft, with 500 mb temperatures remaining
around -10C to -11C by Friday and Saturday. These conditions will
support favorable conditions for deep convection and increase the
chances of thunderstorm development. However, a significant drop
in the relative humidity levels across different levels of the
atmosphere could inhibit significant rain activity and afternoon
thunderstorms. Latest models are still showing uncertainty and
disagreeing on the amount and timing of precipitation at this
time.

At the lower levels, precipitable water content will fluctuate
between below 1.0 inches and up to 1.5 inches, which is considered
below normal to near average, depending on patches of moisture
streaming across the area. As a result, activity will likely
depend on the arrival of these moisture patches, leading to
periods of sunshine and passing showers. A few thunderstorms may
develop during the afternoon hours, but at the moment, significant
accumulations are not expected.

Additionally, the highlight of the forecast will continue to be
the windy conditions, which will persist through at least Saturday
and gradually improve afterward. Models show the 925 mb winds will
be two standard deviations above normal Thursday into Friday, then
above normal on Saturday, gradually subsiding thereafter. These
conditions may result in unsecured outdoor items being blown
around or damaged, as well as hazardous marine and coastal
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind showers could move at
times across the USVI and north/east terminals of PR through 13z.
Also, SHRA with in and around TJBQ btw 18z-22z. ESE winds are
expected to increase btw 15-20 kt with higher gusts aft 14z.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the Atlantic basin will continue to
promote fresh to locally strong easterly winds throughout the week.
Thursday and Friday are expected to be the windiest days of the week.
Seas will continue to build between 7 and 10 feet, and occasionally
higher, across the regional waters. As a result, hazardous seas are
anticipated for most waters through the whole forecast period.
Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will continue for the next
few days.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Prevailing hazardous beach conditions are expected this week,
with Thursday and Friday seeing the highest risk, as they are
anticipated to be the windiest days this forecast period. This
will result in increasingly rough and dangerous seas, creating
life-threatening rip currents across beaches of northern Puerto
Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. A High Rip Current Risk will remain in effect at least
through Saturday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers are expected to continue throughout the day, mainly
affecting eastern portions of Puerto Rico and adjacent islands
the remainder of the morning hours, then scattered to numerous
showers will develop across the interior and western Puerto Rico
as the day progresses. Tomorrow and Friday are expected to be the
windiest days, maintaining hazardous marine conditions, as well
as life-threatening rip currents across most local beaches. Small
Craft Advisories and a High Rip Current Risk will remain in
effect at least through next Saturday. Swimmers are urged to
exercise caution by staying near lifeguards, avoiding dangerous
waters, and following warning signs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

During the night, GOES-16 satellite data detected a broad area of
slightly above-normal moisture and extensive cloud coverage moving
into the forecast area. This resulted in numerous showers across
eastern portions of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. These showers moved through the region fairly
quickly; however, some localized areas observed up to half an inch
of rainfall accumulation. These showers were accompanied by gusty
winds, with some weather stations reporting wind gusts between 30
and 35 mph at times, particularly across the eastern half of the
CWA. Similar weather conditions are expected to persist through the
remainder of the morning hours.

The forecast remains on track, with troughiness aloft expected to
persist through the short-term period, particularly from Thursday
onward. The limiting factor will be moisture, as model guidance
continues to indicate a significant drop in mid-level relative
humidity by midday Thursday, falling below 10-15%. At lower levels,
moisture content will gradually decrease to near-normal or even
below-normal levels. As a result, periods of limited shower activity
and clearer skies will alternate with brief episodes of showers
associated with pockets of moisture embedded in the trade winds. The
overall flood threat remains limited, with today likely bringing the
highest rainfall accumulations—particularly across the eastern half
of the CWA. Any thunderstorm activity that does develop is expected
to be short-lived and very localized.

Breezy to windy conditions are expected to persist through the
period as the pressure gradient across the northern Caribbean
continues to tighten. This pattern is driven by a surface high-
pressure system building over the west- central Atlantic,
reinforcing strong easterly trade winds across the region. Model
guidance remains consistent, maintaining high forecast confidence
in increasing wind speeds through the end of the workweek.
Thursday is still expected to be the peak of this wind event, with
sustained winds likely to exceed 25 mph and frequent gusts
reaching or surpassing 35 mph, especially across coastal areas of
Puerto Rico and the surrounding smaller islands. Given the
expected wind strength, we will continue to monitor conditions
closely. A Wind Advisory may be issued if forecast trends hold.
These winds could lead to hazardous travel conditions,
particularly for high-profile vehicles, and may cause outdoor
items to blow around or become damaged.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

At the beginning of the long-term period, conditions will remain
breezy but are anticipated to follow a decreasing trend. At the
same time, this will allow hazardous marine and coastal conditions
to gradually improve, at least from Saturday night through at
least next Monday.

Model guidance continues to suggest that a surface high-pressure
system over the western Atlantic will move eastward into the
Central Atlantic, promoting east to northeast winds through
Sunday. These winds will then become more easterly early next
week. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge will dominate to the north and
west of the forecast area, while troughing develops and persists
over the region through the forecast period. This will promote
ventilation and cooler temperatures aloft, with 500 mb temperatures
remaining between -8°C to -10°C by the weekend. These conditions
will support favorable conditions for deep convection and increase
the chances of thunderstorm development. However, a significant
drop in moisture content across different levels of the atmosphere
is expected to inhibit significant rainfall and afternoon
thunderstorms. The latest models still show uncertainty and
disagree on the amount and timing of precipitation at this moment
and we will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast accordingly.

Throughout the forecast period, the latest models suggest that
precipitable water values will oscillate between below 1.0 and 1.5
inches, which is considered below normal to near average. As a
result, activity will likely depend on the arrival of patches of
moisture, leading to periods of sunshine and passing showers.
Isolated to scattered showers, with a thunderstorm or two, cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon hours across the western
portions of Puerto Rico, but at the moment, significant
accumulations are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, groups of clouds will move over
the area today increasing SCT-BKN lyrs near FL025...FL040...FL080
with Isold-WDLY SCT SHRA across northern terminals of PR and USVI
through 02/15z. E/ENE winds of 15-20 kts with higher gusts through
the period. Winds could reach 30 kts or higher blo FL050 aft
02/22z.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure over the Atlantic basin will continue
to promote fresh to locally strong easterly winds throughout the
week. Thursday and Friday are expected to be the windiest days of
the week. Seas will continue to build between 6 and 9 feet, and
occasionally higher, across the regional waters. As a result,
hazardous seas are anticipated for most waters through the whole
forecast period. Isolated to scattered shower activity will
continue over the next few days.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Prevailing hazardous beach conditions are expected this week, with
Thursday and Friday seeing the highest risk, as they are anticipated
to be the windiest days this forecast period. This will result in
increasingly rough and dangerous seas, creating life-threatening
rip currents across most local beaches. A High Rip Current Risk
will remain in effect through at least Saturday afternoon along
beaches of northern Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, Culebra,
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A moderate risk is in place elsewhere.
Important to note that other areas like Vieques and southeast
Puerto Rico are likely to be added to the Rip Current Statement
later today or tonight, we will continue to monitor conditions.

Swimmers are urged to exercise caution by staying near lifeguards,
avoiding dangerous waters, and following warning signs.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
516 AM AST Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Lower rain chances are anticipated today due to the arrival of a
drier airmass. Today, the main hazard will be the windy conditions,
with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts potentially exceeding
40 mph, possibly reaching up to 50 mph in localized areas. These
wind conditions are expected to continue into Friday. These conditions
will also elevate the risk of fires, especially in grass-dominated
areas. As a result, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) has been issued
for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

Showery weather persisted overnight, as gusty winds helped trigger
shower development, particularly across windward coastal areas.
Gusty wind conditions were also reported by weather stations,
especially due to passing showers. Maximum wind gusts of 25 to 30
mph were observed across the windward coastal regions of Puerto Rico
and the surrounding smaller islands. A similar weather pattern is
expected to continue through the morning hours. However, a sudden
decrease in shower activity is anticipated by this afternoon, as a
dry slot, detected by GOES-16 satellite data, moves over the area.
PWAT values are forecast to drop below 1.0 inch across the region.

Winds will increase throughout the day, with sustained winds of 20
to 30 mph and gusts potentially exceeding 40 mph, possibly
reaching up to 50 mph in localized areas. These wind conditions
are expected to continue into Friday, though slightly weaker than
today. As a result, a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM
AST Friday. These conditions could lead to difficult driving,
especially for high-profile vehicles on bridges or exposed
roadways. Tree limbs or weak trees may break and fall onto power
lines, and outdoor items could be blown around or damaged. Minor
damage to poorly secured structures is also possible. Winds will
gradually subside through the weekend, though breezy conditions
will persist as the pressure gradient over the northern Caribbean
continues to loosen.

In terms of shower activity, a mid-to-upper-level trough is expected
to deepen through the short-term forecast period. Several indicators
of favorable dynamics will be present, including 250 mb height
falls, reduced 1000-500 mb thicknesses, cooler 500 mb temperatures,
and steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates. However, moisture availability
will remain the limiting factor, with precipitable water values
falling to below-normal levels today and Friday, and 700-500 mb
relative humidity dropping nearly two standard deviations below
normal. During these drier periods, passing showers may develop
during the night and early morning hours, with scattered showers
forming in the afternoon over interior and western Puerto Rico. The
greatest potential for any thunderstorm activity is expected on
Saturday afternoon, coinciding with a brief increase in moisture
levels to near-normal values.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

Starting the long-term period, winds will continue to subside,
allowing hazardous marine and coastal conditions to improve, at
least through next Monday. Latest model guidance continues to
suggest that a surface high-pressure over the western Atlantic
will move eastward into the Central Atlantic from Sunday into
early next week, promoting east to northeast winds to become more
easterly from Monday onward. An upper-level trough will persist
over the region through the forecast period, promoting ventilation
and cooler temperatures aloft, with 500 mb temperatures remaining
between -8°C and -10°C. These conditions will support favorable
conditions for deep convection and increase the chances of
thunderstorm development. However, moisture content will be
limited across different levels of the atmosphere, which could
inhibit significant rainfall and afternoon thunderstorms. Models
suggest that precipitable water values will oscillate between
below 1.0 and 1.5 inches through Tuesday, which is considered
below normal to near average. As a result, activity will likely
depend on the arrival of patches of moisture, leading to periods
of sunshine and passing showers each day. Local effects and
favorable conditions aloft will likely produce isolated to
scattered convection, with a thunderstorm or two, during the
afternoon hours across the western portions of Puerto Rico each
day. However, at the moment, significant accumulations are not
expected. By Wednesday, the arrival of a band of moisture will
produce better rain chances. From Thursday afternoon/night onward,
it seems that we will transition into a wetter pattern due to the
combination of an approaching surface frontal boundary, a pre-
frontal trough, and the arrival of abundant tropical moisture
under southeasterly wind flow across the islands. This will likely
increase the frequency and chance of showers by the end of next
week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, passing SHRA will move in the
vicinity of TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX through 03/15z. E/ENE winds of 20-
25 kt will persist today, with gusts between 30 and 40 knots, but
could be higher, blo FL050. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect
for the islands.

&&

.MARINE...

A broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue
to promote fresh to locally strong east to east-northeast winds
through at least late Friday night, then conditions will gradually
improve Saturday into Sunday. Today, seas will continue to build
between 6 to 10 feet, and occasionally higher, across most waters
resulting in hazardous seas over the next few days.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic is producing
strong winds across our area, especially in coastal areas today
through late Friday. This will maintain coastal conditions deteriorated
through at least Saturday. For that reason, a High Rip Current
Risk remains in effect through Saturday afternoon for the north-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, Culebra and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Also, from today through at least Friday evening
there will be a High Rip Current Risk for the beaches of southeastern
Puerto Rico, from Salinas to Yabucoa, and Vieques. A Moderate Risk is
in place elsewhere.

Swimmers are urged to exercise caution by staying near lifeguards
or even better to stay out of the water. Rip Currents can sweep
even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it
becomes difficult to return to safety. Heed the advice of lifeguards,
beach patrol flags and signs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Although most of the island has received above-normal rainfall over
the past month, smaller, fire-prone coastal regions continue to
observe below-normal precipitation. A dry slot will lead to relative
humidity values dropping to 40 to 45% across the southern coastal
plains, and possibly 50 to 55% across northwestern Puerto Rico,
an area with the lowest 30-day and 60-day percent of normal
rainfall. Combined with this dry air, windy conditions are
expected today, with easterly winds likely reaching up to 25 mph
or higher, and gusts potentially exceeding 30 mph. The KBDI was
reported at 349 in Cabo Rojo and 628 in Guanica, indicating that
areas with dry vegetation and available fuels could experience
rapid fire spread today. These conditions elevate the risk of
fast-moving fires, especially in grass-dominated areas. As a
result, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) has been issued for the
affected regions. Please refer to RFDSJU for further details.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
514 AM AST Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Windy conditions will continue today, with sustained winds
between 20 to 25 mph and wind gusts over 40 mph. A variable
weather pattern is forecast for the next workweek, with fair
weather conditions and occasional trade wind showers moving over
the windward areas during the first part of the week, and
increasing moisture content during the second part. Marine and
coastal conditions remain hazardous for small craft and beachgoers
through the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

A surface high pressure spread from the Western to the Central
Atlantic will sink southwards today, further tightening the local
pressure gradient. This will promote windy conditions today across
the islands, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect through at
least 8 PM tonight. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph, with
frequent gusts ranging from 35 to 45 mph are expected, and mainly
across the lower elevations. A drier air mass will move over the
region today, promoting fair weather and increasing the potential
for fire weather conditions. However, showers embedded in the
trade winds are expected to move over portions of eastern and
northern PR, as well as across the northern USVI tonight.

A TUTT-low northeast of the region will continue to promote colder
than normal 500 mb temperatures (-9/10C), increasing instability
which could promote the formation of isolated thunderstorms on
Saturday afternoon over western PR. However, the limiting factor
is the dry air mass at mid-levels, which could promote subsidence
aloft and less potential for widespread activity. Another drier
air mass is expected on Sunday, and the precipitable water content
is forecast to drop under 1 inch, well below normal values.

Life-threatening rip currents are expected to form daily at local
beaches. Residents and visitors are strongly urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and beach patrols. As a result, a high rip
current risk is in effect for the east and north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with occasional rip
currents also possible along the south and west coasts.

&&


.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

The long-term forecast remains on track, with a variable weather
pattern ahead. The latest model guidance insists on another surface
high pressure building in the western Atlantic, promoting E-NE
winds. However, as the high pressure migrates eastward, the wind
pattern will remain from the E-SE. The first part of the workweek
will be dominated by a combination of drier air mass and patches of
moisture moving in occasionally. A mid to upper-level trough will
linger over the CWA, allowing ventilation and enhancing instability
aloft. Additionally, the 500 mb temperatures should remain between -
8 to -10 Celsius, promoting deep convection activity. However, the
limitations of moisture content may inhibit the shower and
thunderstorm activity. Expect isolated showers moving along windward
sections in the morning and over the interior to northwestern Puerto
Rico. Model guidance continues suggesting the transition to a wetter
pattern for the second part of the week. A frontal boundary and its
pre-frontal trough will approach the region by Wednesday, but the
best moisture content is expected to remain north of the local
islands. An induced low should move by the end of the workweek, with
above-normal Precipitable Water (PWAT) values ( 1.7 - 1.8 inches).
Enough moisture content could produce moderate to strong showers
across the region and increase flooding potential. Ponding of water
in roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas is very likely, along
with isolated urban and small streams flooding.

With a southeasterly flow dominating, temperatures could increase
and reach near above normal. However, this does not present a risk
of extreme heat for the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind SHRA en route just
east of Anegada will reach portions of the USVI and the east/northern
PR terminals later tonight. E-ENE winds at 20-25 knots, with
gusts up to 45 kt will continue through at least this evening.
Therefore, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for all PR and the
USVI.


&&

.MARINE...

A broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue
to promote fresh to locally strong east to east-northeast winds
through at least late tonight, then conditions will gradually
improve Saturday into Sunday. Rough seas will continue to build
between 6 and 9 feet, and occasionally higher, across most waters
resulting in hazardous seas through the weekend.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Strong winds continue producing hazardous coastal conditions for
beachgoers. The High Rip Current Risk remains in effect through
Saturday afternoon for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, from
Aguadilla to Fajardo, Culebra, St. Thomas, St. John, and St.
Croix. Additionally, the high risk of rip currents is now in
effect for the southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, from Salinas
to Yabucoa, and Vieques through late tonight. The risk remains
moderate elsewhere.

Swimmers are urged to exercise caution by staying near lifeguards
or even better to stay out of the water. Rip Currents can sweep
even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it
becomes difficult to return to safety. Heed the advice of lifeguards,
beach patrol flags and signs.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong winds up to 25 mph with gusts near 40 mph are expected to
continue today across Puerto Rico. In addition, a drier air mass
is expected to filter over the islands during the day, and the
relative humidity could drop between 35-45% across portions of
southern and western Puerto Rico early this afternoon. Given the
combination of the expected low relative humidities, dry fuels,
windy and gusty conditions, the potential for rapid fire spread is
elevated. The Fire Danger Statement issued emphasize the
heightened risk and urges extra precaution, particularly for
activities that could spark a fire, such as outdoor burning,
camping, or vehicle use in grassy areas.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
530 AM AST Sat Apr 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will continue to subside today, although it will remain
breezy. Life-threatening rip currents and hazardous seas will
continue this weekend as well. Rainfall will be variable, with
areas of passing showers moving at times across the eastern and
northern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A
variable weather pattern is still anticipated for the next
workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Showers embedded in the trade winds moved over the eastern and
northern sections of Puerto Rico and across the U.S. Virgin Islands
during the overnight hours. The Doppler radar estimated between a
quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain. In general, minimum
temperatures were in the low to mid-70s across the lower elevations
to the mid-and upper-60s across the higher elevations. Breezy east
to northeast winds prevailed across the region, with gusts between
25 and 30 mph.

The surface high pressure, located between the US East Coast and
Bermuda will continue to produce breezy conditions today. However,
wind speeds should remain below Wind Advisory criteria. Having said
that, a front north of the high will sink southwards during the next
few days, and weakening of the pressure gradient is expected.
Therefore, wind speeds will gradually decrease from around 15-20 mph
today to 10-15 mph by Monday. Also, the surface high will shift east
of Bermuda on Monday, and the remnants of an old frontal boundary is
expected to reach the northeastern Caribbean by then. In response,
winds will acquire a southeasterly component briefly, and moisture
content should return to normal levels by Monday evening. Therefore,
showers are expected to increase once again across the windward
areas of the islands.

Meanwhile, an amplifying mid-to upper-level trough will continue to
enhance instability aloft, potentially leading to the development of
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over west/southwest PR.
Although instability parameters indicated favorable conditions for
the development of thunderstorms, a lingering drier air mass at the
mid levels will make organizing widespread convection challenging.
Regardless, model guidance suggest the potential for convection this
afternoon, and to a lesser extent on Monday over western PR. Drier
conditions are still expected on Sunday, with fair weather
prevailing in general across PR and the USVI.

&&


.LONG TERM... Tuesday through Saturday...

Not much changes were made to the long-term forecast. The broad
high surface pressure over the Western Atlantic is still expected
to migrate eastward, promoting E-ESE winds for the rest of the
forecast period. For Tuesday, remnants associated to an old
frontal boundary will move across the local islands Monday night
into early Tuesday, with PWAT values increasing and promoting
showers along windward sections. Additionally, the mid to upper
level trough will continue lingering over the CWA, allowing
ventilation and colder 500 mb temperatures (-8 to -9 Celsius).
However, moisture content limitations will inhibit the development
of thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. Model guidance
continues suggesting a frontal boundary and its pre frontal trough
approaching the local islands, but the latest model solution
locates these features north of the region. However, PWAT values
will increase once again on late Thursday into Friday will the
arrival of high moisture content into the region, promoting
showers across windward sections over the night and
western/northwestern PR on Friday afternoon. Ponding of water in
roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas is very likely, along
with isolated urban and small streams flooding. PWAT values will
drop to below normal values as a drier air mass filters into the
region on Saturday.

There's still a tendency of temperatures gradually increasing and
reaching near above normals. However, this does not present a
risk of heat for the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions expected across most terminals through the
period. However, trade wind SHRA with gusty winds will continue to
move from the east to northwest coast of PR through the rest of the
morning hours. Iso TSRA could develop over western PR, between
05/18z-22z, causing mostly VCTS at TJBQ. East to northeast winds
will continue between 15-20 kt and occasionally higher at TJBQ with
gusts up to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...

A broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds today. Winds will continue
to subside this weekend. However, rough seas between 6 and 9 feet,
occasionally higher, across most waters remain hazardous for small
craft through late tonight. A northeasterly long period swell will
arrive early on Tuesday, increasing seas and deteriorating marine
conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Although winds will continue to subside today, the high risk of rip
current continues in effect for the northern beaches of Puerto
Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands through late tonight. The rest of the surf zones will
remain under a moderate risk. A northeasterly long period swell
will arrive early on Tuesday, deteriorating marine and coastal
conditions, and possibly increasing the risk of rip currents.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A broad surface high pressure north of the region will promote
winds from 15 - 20 mph and gusty winds from 25 - 30 mph today.
Additionally, stations report KDBI values around 634 in Guanica
and 360 - 363 in Cabo Rojo and Maricao, and the relative
humidities will stay below thresholds early this afternoon for the
southern coastal plains. The combination of the low relative
humidities, dry fuels, breezy and gusty conditions, meet the
criteria for an elevated potential of rapid fire spread.
Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) has been issued for the
southern sections of Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
431 AM AST Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon
expected early this week. Variable weather pattern across the
region for the second part of the workweek, becoming wet over the
weekend. Marine and coastal conditions will continue improving
today, however, small craft and beachgoers should exercise
caution. A northeasterly long-period swell will arrive on Tuesday,
deteriorating marine and coastal conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Partly cloudy skies prevailed across portions of the islands
overnight, with passing trade wind showers moving across the north-
central to eastern sections of Puerto Rico and across the U.S.
Virgin Islands. The Doppler radar estimated up to a quarter of an
inch of rain across northeastern PR. Minimum temperatures were from
the low to mid-70s across the lower elevations to the mid-60s across
the higher elevations. The wind was from the east to northeast up to
12 mph with gusts between 16 and 23 mph across coastal areas.

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will move and
strengthen over the central Atlantic over the next few days.
Moderate to fresh east-to-northeast winds will prevail today, but
winds will turn east to the southeast on Monday and Tuesday as the
high shifts eastwards. At the upper levels, a broad trough over the
northeastern Caribbean will continue to amplify, promoting
instability aloft and increasing the potential for isolated
thunderstorm development due to colder-than-normal 500 mb
temperatures of -9/10C. Therefore, isolated thunderstorms may occur
over western Puerto Rico. However, a limiting factor could be the
presence of drier air at the mid-levels. In response, the
precipitable water (PWAT) content is forecast to drop below 1 inch
during the next 24 hours before the remnants of an old frontal
boundary move over the local area by Monday evening, and the PWAT
recovers to nearly 1.50 inches. Across the USVI, fair weather
conditions will prevail throughout the period; however, scattered
showers will increase from Monday night into early Tuesday morning
with the surge in low-level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

The long-term forecast remains on track, with mainly stable
conditions over the second part of the work week and a wetter
pattern for the weekend. The broad high surface pressure over the
Western Atlantic will promote winds with an easterly component for
the long-term period. A mid to high level ridge will move over the
region by CWA by late Wednesday, warming 500 mb temperatures to
above normal ( -3 and -4 Celsius) and increasing stability aloft.
For the past few days, the model guidance has suggested a frontal
boundary approaching the local islands but solutions are delaying
its arrival and maintaining it north of the region. However, the
latest model solution shows an increase to above-normal
Precipitable Water values by Friday into the weekend, with the
arrival of high moisture content. As the high surface pressure
migrates eastward and 0 - 3 km winds turning from the ESE-SE,
showers should move along eastern PR, Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands during the night into early morning. Although
deep convection activity will be limited, the combination of local
effects, sea breeze convergence, and diurnal heating could
enhance afternoon convection across interior and northwestern PR
each day. Rainfall accumulations could enhance flooding potential,
with ponding of water in roadways, urban, and poorly drained
areas, along isolated urban and small streams flooding.

The tendency of increasing temperatures in model guidance remains,
with highs reaching above normal values. Nevertheless, the risk
of heat remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind -SHRA may cause brief
periods of -RA/VCSH across the area terminals. ENE winds will
increase between 13-17 kt with stronger gusts after 06/14z.

&&

.MARINE...

A broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue
promoting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds today and
continue to subside. However, small craft should exercise caution due
winds up to 20 knots and seas up to 6 feet. A northeasterly long
period swell will arrive early on Tuesday, increasing seas and
deteriorating marine conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

As winds continue to subside, breaking waves between 3 - 5 feet
will promote a moderate risk of rip currents for most beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Life-threatening rip
currents are still possible along the surf zone, beachgoers
should exercise caution. A northeasterly long- period swell will
arrive early on Tuesday, deteriorating marine and coastal
conditions, and possibly increasing the risk of rip currents.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Similar conditions to yesterday should prevail today. Winds will
remain between 15 - 20 mph, with higher gusts around 26 - 28 mph.
The latest KDBI values remain well above fire weather thresholds
in Guanica (637), while Cabo Rojo and Maricao slightly increased
(370 - 379). Soils in the southern coastal plains of Puerto Rico
continue with precipitation deficit and dry soils, contributing to
rapid fire spread. As a dry air mass filters into the region
today and relative humidities drop near 40 %, elevated fire
danger conditions are expected along the southern coastal plains
of Puerto Rico. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement (RFDSJU) will
be issued for portions of southern Puerto Rico.