Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

[Monisae]

I got a good question for y'all, if reconnaissance never went into Hurricane Patricia 2015, (Like most WPAC storms), what would your estimates be? Feel free to provide explanations as to why!

I'm guess NHC will gave 150kt for Patricia if there's no recon because they never use polar, Patricia was cmg+ow on GEO and it went to 7.0 Dvorak.
Here's a good example how NHC underrated hurricanes in EPAC, they only gave 115kt for Simon 2014

[Hurricane2000]

I got a good question for y'all, if reconnaissance never went into Hurricane Patricia 2015, (Like most WPAC storms), what would your estimates be? Feel free to provide explanations as to why!

I'm guess NHC will gave 150kt for Patricia if there's no recon because they never use polar, Patricia was cmg+ow on GEO and it went to 7.0 Dvorak.
Here's a good example how NHC underrated hurricanes in EPAC, they only gave 115kt for Simon 2014
https://i.postimg.cc/wvqX6y05/simon-avhrr.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/W14tbmv1/simon-viirs.jpg

Nice images! Do you have any of Patricia?

[Hurricane2000]

Does anyone here know the lowest pressure measured in Hurricane Patricia 2015? Wikipedia says 879mb, CIMSS says 878.4mb, and people I've asked on X (Twitter) said it was 878mb. Could anyone here help clear things up? Thanks!

[ljmac75]

Does anyone here know the lowest pressure measured in Hurricane Patricia 2015? Wikipedia says 879mb, CIMSS says 878.4mb, and people I've asked on X (Twitter) said it was 878mb. Could anyone here help clear things up? Thanks!

I checked a recon archive (https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... m=Patricia) and it looks like the lowest dropsonde pressures were 885 with a 57 kt wind and 883 with a 47 kt wind, which would adjust to around 879 and 878 using the standard 1 mb pressure for every 10 kt wind rule in the eye. Lowest extrapolated pressure (pressure vs height extrapolation) was 878.4 mb.

[Hurricane2000]

Does anyone here know the lowest pressure measured in Hurricane Patricia 2015? Wikipedia says 879mb, CIMSS says 878.4mb, and people I've asked on X (Twitter) said it was 878mb. Could anyone here help clear things up? Thanks!

I checked a recon archive (https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... m=Patricia) and it looks like the lowest dropsonde pressures were 885 with a 57 kt wind and 883 with a 47 kt wind, which would adjust to around 879 and 878 using the standard 1 mb pressure for every 10 kt wind rule in the eye. Lowest extrapolated pressure (pressure vs height extrapolation) was 878.4 mb.

Thanks! Is there anywhere I can find the 878.4mb extrapolation?

[Travorum]

Does anyone here know the lowest pressure measured in Hurricane Patricia 2015? Wikipedia says 879mb, CIMSS says 878.4mb, and people I've asked on X (Twitter) said it was 878mb. Could anyone here help clear things up? Thanks!

I checked a recon archive (https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... m=Patricia) and it looks like the lowest dropsonde pressures were 885 with a 57 kt wind and 883 with a 47 kt wind, which would adjust to around 879 and 878 using the standard 1 mb pressure for every 10 kt wind rule in the eye. Lowest extrapolated pressure (pressure vs height extrapolation) was 878.4 mb.

Thanks! Is there anywhere I can find the 878.4mb extrapolation?

That recon archive has the HDOB message with the 878.4mb extrap here: https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... .4-181-166

[Hurricane2000]

I checked a recon archive (https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... m=Patricia) and it looks like the lowest dropsonde pressures were 885 with a 57 kt wind and 883 with a 47 kt wind, which would adjust to around 879 and 878 using the standard 1 mb pressure for every 10 kt wind rule in the eye. Lowest extrapolated pressure (pressure vs height extrapolation) was 878.4 mb.

Thanks! Is there anywhere I can find the 878.4mb extrapolation?

That recon archive has the HDOB message with the 878.4mb extrap here: https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... .4-181-166

Thanks again!