Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

CSU - https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-04.pdf 17/9/4 - April 3

TSR- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... er2025.pdf - 15/7/3 - December 10

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... il2025.pdf - 14/7/3 - April 7

Crown Weather Services- https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices 16/7/4 - March 20

Accuweather - https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... 25/1757562 - 13-18 named storms - March 26

WeatherTiger - https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... t-look-43f - 16-21 named storms - March 28

WxProbe's - https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1898552924910821848 - 17/9/4 - March 8

Joe Bastardi - https://www.cfact.org/2025/04/09/hurric ... st-update/ - 15-19 named storms - April 9

Weather Channel - https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... -twc-april - 19/9/4 - April 18

[Travorum]

Although there is a huge amount of uncertainty given the long forecast range, there are some interesting takeaways from the December TSR forecast, which is predicting activity (129 ACE) near the 30 year climatological average:

Atlantic MDR and Caribbean Sea SST:

August-September sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic (region 10°N–20°N, 20°W–60°W) and the Caribbean Sea are forecast to be warmer than normal. The current forecast is for 0.3±0.35°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology) for both regions.

While these SSTs are still above even the relatively warm 30 year average, a +0.3C average MDR anomaly would be significantly lower than the absolute hot tub that the MDR has been for the past two years. MDR SST anomaly shot up above +0.5C in May 2023 and has stayed above that temperature since then, averaging around +1.0C and peaking at almost +2.0C in late May 2024. It would take a great deal of cooling to get down to an average of 0.3C, and personally I would expect a value on the upper end of the variance range given. Still, pretty much any value in the range TSR forecasts would likely result in favorable conditions somewhere in the MDR.

Trade Wind Speed

The current forecast for the July-September trade wind is for 0.15±0.79 m/s, weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology).

This is another variable that is favorable for cyclogenesis, suggesting lower shear and higher vorticity in the MDR during peak season.

ENSO

Based on the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) model projections, cold-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are likely through winter 2024/25 and are most likely to trend towards neutral ENSO conditions by summer 2025.

Neutral ENSO next year is a very real possibility, but I'm really not putting much stock into ENSO predictions in December. After all, the December TSR forecast for 2022 predicted that La Niña conditions wouldn't persist through a third year; the December TSR forecast for 2023 predicted warm-neutral or weak a El Niño for peak season rather than the strong El Niño that actually occurred; the December TSR forecast for 2024 actually correctly predicted near-neutral ENSO, but was an outlier amongst many predicting a moderate to strong La Niña. Acknowledging the great deal of uncertainty, the 2025 TSR ENSO forecast is somewhat more favorable than the 2023 forecast and less favorable than the 2024 forecast.

Analogue Years

The November 2024 sea surface temperature pattern globally is most comparable to November 1999, 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2017. The following hurricane seasons during these years were close to the 1991-2020 climate norm, with the ACE index ranging from 119 to 146 and an average ACE index across these years of 131. Given the current cold-neutral ENSO state, the closest analogue years are 2011 and 2017 when weak La Niña conditions were in place through winter which transitioned into neutral conditions by the following summer. The ACE indices from these two years was 133 and 129 which is is comparable with the TSR extended range forecast ACE index of 129.

TSR is basing their analogue years on current winter SST profiles rather than climate model forecasts, which does appear to be a sound methodological choice. This would make 2025's analogue years 2000, 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2018. These are mostly all years that were average by the numbers but feature many devastating and costly storms like Gustav, Ike, Paloma, Sandy, Florence, and Michael. If a relatively average year climatologically speaking should take place as most background conditions currently suggest (albeit with a large amount of uncertainty at this lead time), these analogue years still show that a significantly impactful storm is very possible.

---

Overall, with the big caveat that forecasting skill at this lead time is famously low, especially with ENSO, the macroscale factors TSR forecasts for 2025 fall somewhere in-between 2023 and 2024. This is to say nothing of the role of intraseasonal factors -- after all, we saw 2023 put up extremely impressive numbers in outright hostile background conditions and 2024 have a record inactive peak season in what was supposed to be 2005 2.0. Given that MDR SST anomalies should remain largely above average (I would say TSR's forecast here is a bit conservative and even that is still high), I would think it more likely than not that 2025 ends up at or above average activity. The analogue years that TSR has identified suggest a somewhat increased likelihood for a significant landfalling hurricane in what they are otherwise forecasting to be an average year.

[ncforecaster89]

There is genuinely no definitive skill involved in seasonal forecasting at these ridiculously long ranges. The truth of the matter is that the same essentially applies to the April projections as well.

Any favorable verification of forecasts at this range is more associated with luck rather than anything else.

May not be a popular take, but it is no less quantifiably accurate. I say this as someone (WxProbe) who has the best long-term seasonal verification scores since 2014…coinciding with when I began producing these annually, myself. Even so, I still attribute a substantial amount of that relative success to “luck.”

The simple truth of the matter is that it’s difficult enough to provide skillfully accurate forecasts at 384 hours…much less 3-9 months in advance. None of us can predict what ENSO will do at this point…much less all the other important intraseasonal variability. Moreover, the current SST anomalies and configuration aren’t predictive of what they may be come the all-important ASO peak of the season.

Although I naturally have my own personal thoughts on what I suspect will materialize during the forthcoming season, it’s for the aforementioned reasons that I won’t yet be providing any relevant details until March, at the earliest. That will be followed by a definitive seasonal forecast during the first week of June (which is the one I use for post-season verification of all respective forecasts provided by the various agencies).

I’ll conclude by stating that it’s likely that the 2025 season will be above the 1991-2020 average. How much so is literally anybody’s “guess” at this point.

[ncforecaster89]

In keeping with last year’s precedent, I’ve decided to go ahead and provide WxProbe’s “first look” forecast for the 2025 season. You can read a few additional details here:

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1898552924910821848

Named Storms………………….15-19 (17)
Hurricanes………………………….8-10 (9)
Major Hurricanes…………………3-5 (4)

As usual, these projections will be refined by the time I issue my definitive forecast by no later than June 15.

[cycloneye]

Mark your calenders for April 3 when CSU is up.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1902743707528622559

[cycloneye]

Crown Weather Services has it's first forecast for the 2025 season and has 16/7/4. Hot spots are east coast of U.S and NE Caribbean followed by GOA.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

[Category5Kaiju]

Crown Weather Services has it's first forecast for the 2025 season and has 16/7/4. Hot spots are east coast of U.S and NE Caribbean followed by GOA.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

https://i.imgur.com/RO8ATqN.jpeg

Whoa, Puerto Rico's in a high risk zone? Stay safe cycloneye! Looks like regardless of the exact outcome, people are definitely expecting some Gulf action and more East Coast threats than previous years....

[vbhoutex]

Dr' Philip Klotzbach's 2025 hurricane forecast will come out at 9am April 3rd at the NTWC2025.

[crownweather]

Crown Weather Services has it's first forecast for the 2025 season and has 16/7/4. Hot spots are east coast of U.S and NE Caribbean followed by GOA.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

https://i.imgur.com/RO8ATqN.jpeg

Thanks for sharing!!

As I mentioned in the forecast, I do think that this could very well be a East Coast concentrated season for threats, especially for areas north of Georgia. Interestingly, data also indicates that the central Gulf Coast as well as the NE Caribbean islands could also be at an heightened risk for a tropical cyclone threat or impact.

I will be interested to see if I'm "too low" this season in terms of numbers. 16 named storms seems most possible, although with a neutral ENSO conditions & the possibility of more robust easterly tropical waves leading to more robust disturbances that are able to develop quicker, it's possible that we could see higher than 16 named storms.

Also, direct link to the Crown Weather website for the seasonal forecast is https://crownweather.com/tropical-weather/2025-hurricane-season-forecast/

[ncforecaster89]

Crown Weather Services has it's first forecast for the 2025 season and has 16/7/4. Hot spots are east coast of U.S and NE Caribbean followed by GOA.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

https://i.imgur.com/RO8ATqN.jpeg

Whoa, Puerto Rico's in a high risk zone? Stay safe cycloneye! Looks like regardless of the exact outcome, people are definitely expecting some Gulf action and more East Coast threats than previous years....

I agree with his general expectations regarding the higher probability areas of potential impact. I do so based on my own analogs you can see shown above. They are either Cool Neutral or Warm Neutral ENSO seasons which have historically correlated with greater NE Caribbean and East Coast threats. Even so, you should still take any of these track dependent forecasts with a grain of salt. We can’t even get a good handle on 7 day forecasts for systems that have yet to develop a well-defined LLC nor do we know the synoptic pattern more than 5-10 days beforehand. Fun to contemplate, and a very general idea of potential, but really nothing more, tbh.

[cycloneye]

Accuweather is up. At least they are more realistic and not bombastic on the numbers as they do many times.

[cycloneye]

WeatherTiger private firm is up.

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... t-look-43f

[CyclonicFury]

Wouldn't consider myself an "expert", but I have published my annual preliminary forecast here. I am predicting a slightly above average season, with less activity than last year.

https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2025/04/01/2025atloutlookapr/

[OuterBanker]

Crown Weather Services has it's first forecast for the 2025 season and has 16/7/4. Hot spots are east coast of U.S and NE Caribbean followed by GOA.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

https://i.imgur.com/RO8ATqN.jpeg

How interesting cycloneye. PR and Carolinas are very high each. Here on the OBX we are very aware of the Puerto Rico connection. Many storms that have struck PR have either made landfall or a glancing blow from landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes that struck PR.

[cycloneye]

Crown Weather Services has it's first forecast for the 2025 season and has 16/7/4. Hot spots are east coast of U.S and NE Caribbean followed by GOA.

https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices

https://i.imgur.com/RO8ATqN.jpeg

How interesting cycloneye. PR and Carolinas are very high each. Here on the OBX we are very aware of the Puerto Rico connection. Many storms that have struck PR have either made landfall or a glancing blow from landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes that struck PR.

The most powerful example was Hugo, 1989.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks. CSU will be up this morning. My guess is 15/8/4 and 130 on ACE.

[underthwx]

Ok folks. CSU will be up this morning. My guess is 15/8/4 and 130 on ACE.

Good morning CE!...Will the CSU be posted here?

[cycloneye]

Ok folks. CSU will be up this morning. My guess is 15/8/4 and 130 on ACE.

Good morning CE!...Will the CSU be posted here?

Yes.

[wxman57]

Ok folks. CSU will be up this morning. My guess is 15/8/4 and 130 on ACE.

Generally, the ration of hurricanes to named storms is that the hurricanes represent less than half of the named storms. That's why I'm thinking 17/8/4. I think Phil will go with 16/8/4. Looks like a little above normal activity this year. I'm also thinking that the Azores-Bermuda high may be weaker, allowing for many to recurve earlier, like in 2023. Analog years suggest an elevated risk for the NE Caribbean as well as the southeast U.S. Coast, with less of a Gulf risk this year.

[cycloneye]

https://www.hurricanecenterlive.com/liv ... Vaf3sgxbGw